The Friday Scramble: Round 4

Round 4 already!  Once again we are faced with a heap of things to think about this week.  I will keep saying it, I am actually starting to think that having two trades each and every week is making this game harder than it was before.

When do I trade out my rookie?  Should I ditch this rookie and get the next guy on the bubble? Should I trade out Ablett for a guy that is going to make a stack of cash and get him back in a couple of weeks as his price drops?  That last one is something that our very own Warnie did last week.

These are all things that we would never have thought of in the past.  There is no way we would consider trading out a healthy premium.  But with all of our new rules it is something that we can use as a strategy to make more cash and avoid a probably bad score.

And just before I get into it, I must say that it brings a smile to my face to not only have fantasy relevant players from the team I support but to hear them getting positive comments on the TV and Radio is great.  However, we all know that this can change in a heartbeat.

A Change is as Good as a Holiday.

Following on from my little Power indulgence above, The Hoff is all the talk in fantasy circles at the moment to the point where he has reached the pinnacle of his career and gotten a mention in Calvin’s Captains!  Seriously though this is an example of what a new coach can do to a player.  He has been rejuvenated and given a new role.  Similarly in this team, Kane Cornes is another that is relishing the new coach.  Averaging 121 and a BE of 57 shows that he has been a bargain for those game enough to select him.

With our new trading rules, these guys aren’t out of reach so if you have no other issues to deal with then you still have time to jump on them for the ride.  I guess the caveat that I would put on them is once again is to do your research and be prepared to cut them loose at the moment they show signs of dropping away.

Brent Moloney is another that has benefited from a change.  And he is another that it isn’t too late to jump on.  A BE of just 24 and an average of 93 and his new found freedom at Brisbane shows me that he still has more cash to make.  Someone that a lot of us did jump on, me included was Koby Stevens who moved across to the Bulldogs.  He has shown us that this doesn’t always work.  His BE of 26 is fine but his average of 53.7 and having two vests (one of each colour) under his belt now does worry me.  I will be watching him very closely and could be prepared to pull the trigger on him soon.

Which Rookie Do I Play?

If only us DT Talk writers had a dollar for every time we are asked this question, as well as “who do you think will be the sub” I am sure we could all quit our day jobs and do this full time!  If there is one thing that I have learnt over the years is that we can’t trust coaches and they are unpredictable.

What I do when looking at which rookie I am going to play is to look at the other ins and outs of their team and see if any of these people are likely to take time on the ball away from the role they have been playing.  Also we need to look at the quality of the opponent and the style of opponent.  And obviously we need to look at the form of the player themselves.

For example.  I am sure that none of us will have any hesitation in playing Ollie Wines as he has a permanent role in the Power midfield and is producing.  However, don’t expect 100+ scores from him every week.  Take a guy like Jack Viney who had a ripper of a first game with 86 but followed that up with a 59 and 63.  Now, whilst these are excellent scores from a 3 game player in a side that is really struggling, I have heard people starting to get annoyed with these low scores.  But do you put him on the bench for someone like a Koby Stevens or a Sam Dwyer?  Personally I say they are as likely to score less than Jack as they are to score more.  Also their ceiling wouldn’t be as high.

Another guy that people are asking about is Jaeger O’Meara.  He had a quiet game on the weekend, but it was wet and it was tight and he didn’t get the chance to bust out like he has in other weeks.

I guess what I am trying to say here is that don’t expect huge numbers from these guys and to look at the information you have available before making any decisions.  Consistency is what you want.  Keep an eye on how much their scores fluctuate for no apparent reason.  If this is happening then you may want to start looking elsewhere for consistent points.

Personally I am currently playing all of Wines, Viney and O’Meara in my midfield and Dwyer comes on to my forward line if required.  Stevens is a guy that I would happily leave on the bench as he is too inconsistent.

Trading Plans

Some of us will have the luxury of some tweaking trades this week, but many of us won’t with some long term injuries and suspensions set to hurt our teams.  Gone are the days where we would say about Kreuzer and Ryder if it is only 4 weeks hold them.  Clearly now we have to trade them.  Leuenberger is the obvious choice if you don’t have him yet.  He will make you some cash through the trade and with a BE of -9 he is going to make cash that way too!  If you already have him then you might want to try and swap these two guys for another premo ruck at the same price.  If you don’t have Cox then you should try and get to him if you can.  But I am sure that you all have him already right?

Our other forced trade this week is Varcoe.  He has had shoulder surgery and won’t be seen again until September.  Thankfully his score of 12 only saw a drop of 7,400 back to $227,000.  There are a couple of ways you can go with him, if you have cash in the bank from other trades then you can upgrade him, but I suspect many won’t have that sort of cash that they want to use at the moment.  Downgrade options would include Lachie Whitfield who is averaging 61 and has a BE of -10.  This trade would make you $10,600.  You could really downgrade and take him all the way down to Brad Crouch who has a BE of -61 and this trade would net you $118,500 that you can bank or use to upgrade your Kreuzer to someone else.  The bonus with Varcoe is that he is a DPP Mid Fwd.  So you can move him to either Forward or Mid and pick up the best rookie that you don’t have there.  If you put him in the Fwd line then you could upgrade him to Josh J Kennedy if you don’t have him.  This would be the last week that you would want to be considering the bearded fwd from West Coast.  He is priced at $335,700 so you will need some extra cash to be able to get him, and with a BE of -12 he is set to make you more money.

One way you could get JJK is if you also have Patton.  He is gone for the year and hence he must be traded.  If you have both he and Varcoe you can go Varcoe to Crouch and then after dropping Patton you would have $316,700 to play with meaning that you only needed $19,000 in your bank to pick up JJK.

Big Pav is another now that is out for 4-6 weeks if you have him you will have to trade him clearly.  Given his price there are plenty of options that you can choose from this week.  I would say just pick the best premo that you can get from this situation.  His price of $450,900 isn’t the best, but it should allow you to get a fair few of the key forwards assuming you still have some cash in the bank.

The last trade I want to talk about is Kane Mitchell.  Unfortunately he copped 3 green vests in his 3 appearances and now that Nick Salter has returned from the Injury List, Kane is forced back to the Rookie List and will be playing in the SANFL until another spot opens up.  So there is no point at all in holding him.  He has made you $4,600 which is far less than we wanted to make, but it is a gain nonetheless.  He too could be traded to Crouch which will be the most popular trade this week I would suggest.  If you didn’t have Mitchell and had Kommer (like me) then a straight swap of Kommer to Crouch is the other obvious choice.  No need to hold Kommer whilst suspended as you could use him as a downgrade target when he returns.

To look at all things Trading make sure you have had a read of Aki’s Dream Team Stock Market from yesterday.  He has all the goods and expands further on the players I have talked about here.

Things To Remember!

• Wait to jump on the new guys – One rule I always keep is to wait until a rookie plays two weeks before I pick them up.  So guys like Sam Mayes and Majak Daw will be waiting to get a place in my team until after they have played 2 game.
• Watch the BE’s – With all these trades we can be aggressive, but make sure you are keeping an eye on the BE’s to see if you can wait an extra week to trade someone in or out.  The aforementioned Dream Team Stock Market is the place to go for all this info!
• Don’t hold those fallen premos if they are out more than a week – I think I have laboured this point a fair bit as we all have.  With all these trades you can’t afford to have a stack of cash on the bench.
• The DT Gods are still here! – I think they made themselves known with the injuries to Kreuzer and Patton and the suspension to Ryder.  I don’t care what anyone says, this game should never be called easy!
• Cash is King – This stage of the year is all about making cash, so keep feeding those Cash Cows and make sure that you don’t miss out on the calves whilst wringing every last dollar out of your older cows.

Wow, what a week.  So much to consider and worry about.  Like I have said a few times, having all these trades makes it so much more of a scramble than it was before!  Happy Trading and hopefully you will have another league win this week.

As for my team the Destroyers, we had a fair week with a score of 2072 and my ranking is up to 8071 after a shocker week last week.  I managed 3 of 5 league wins.  But the key one is the DTTalk SA Challenge League who are now up to 12th overall.  Next week I will bring you all an update on the DTTalk State v State challenge.

Give me a follow on Twitter and I will keep you up to date @pkd73.