Dream Team Stock Market – Round 4

 

dt_stockmarket

 

With an abundance of material on the inter-webs these days and a plethora of opinions on every topic ever discussed in the history of man going around on every social media site ever made, there is one thing that will always stand strong. Cash rules the world.

Welcome to the Dream Team Stock Market.

 

Stock Of The Week:

Oliver Wines (MID) $248,000 ($+91,300) B/E: -61 AVG: 102 Last 3: 99, 81, 126

Just keeps getting better with age. If this keeps up, his last name alone is going to go down as one of the greats. If he wasn’t nominated in Round 1 for the Rising Star, he sure would have got it in Round 3. Absolutely dominated across the ground in the Showdown against the Crows rewarding us all with the highest cash gain of any player so far of $91,300. With a nice 126 now cemented in his rolling average and if he tons up again this week, we can chalk up another $70k to add to our team value.

Projected Cash Increase This Week: +$65-$75k

What’s his stock ceiling? In round 11 when he has the bye, he could be valued in the $480,000 area which is a +$323,000 gain from his start value. That is huge. Realistically, we are looking at making +$250,000 off him prior to bye round, if we don’t end up just keeping him altogether.

 

 

Cash Me Up Junior:

Our first price increases have come and gone, we are now looking over our stocks and seeing where we need to make some adjustments. Remember, the key to making the most money, is to be making it on your bench especially as no-one is going to be sporting donuts on the field. The longer you sit on players who are not playing, the further behind you will get and this year, it won’t take much to fall behind the competition leaders.

Moving on to Round 4 and we have a few new faces to add to the Top 10 as they approach there 3rd game of the year, dropping out a few strugglers of last week and adding a slice of strategy to this year’s cash making ability.

One example for me, is the Pittard to Terlich trade. Pittard scored a lackluster 28, which is now going to be entrenched in his rolling average for another 2 weeks, yuck. So we are looking at cash gains of around $15,000 for a few weeks at least. Terlich however, if he sticks to his average of 65, will gain $58,000 this week and at least $40k the next and really, shouldn’t find his way out of the side for some time. Team sheets tonight will dictate this trade but this is the kind of example of trades we can pull a lot earlier this year now we can make 2 trades per week.

Anyway, let’s move on to this week’s top 10:

 

1.) Oliver Wines (MID) $248,000 ($+91,300) B/E: -61 AVG: 102 Last 3: 99, 81, 126

Like I mentioned above, even this week he is set to be the number one money maker. So it’s not too late to get him in, if you haven’t already.

Projected Cash Increase This Week: +$65-$75k

Next 3 Opponents: Gold Coast (Metricon), West Coast (AAMI), North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)

 

*NEW * 2.) Dean Terlich (DEF) $102,700 ($0) B/E: -70 AVG: 65 Last 2: 56, 75

Missed round 1 so his first price increase will be after the completion of this round like a few others in the list. Looks solid down back and surely his job security being high as Melbourne try and resurrect their season. Still unsure whether getting him in for one of the Port defenders is worth it, but if you held Vlaustin/Docherty (why?) then it’s time to trade for Terlich.

Projected Cash Increase This Week: +$50-$60k

Next 3 Opponents: GWS (MCG), Brisbane (GABBA), Carlton (MCG)

 

3.) Jaeger O’Meara (MID) $180,000 (+$71,500) B/E: -52 AVG: 77 Last 2: 73, 104, 54

Looked a little jaded last week, but I still believe he won’t be rested just yet. With a nice B/E still and a handy 104 in his rolling average, hopefully O’Meara can go 75+ this week to keep his cash increases coming nicely.

Projected Cash Increase: +$50-$60k

Next 3 Opponents: Port Adelaide (Metricon), GWS Giants (Manuka Oval), Fremantle (Metricon)

 

*NEW* 4.) Sam Rowe (RUC) $108,500 ($0) B/E: -63 AVG: 63 Last 2: 59, 68

Will be a heavily traded in player this week if people are shipping either Kreuzer/Daw/Currie out and looking to make more cash. Have the option to even place him in the forward line if need be. I like him, provides an option around the ground and contests very well. Is slowly catching up to the speed of the game and really, what a story as well. Will find it tough out West this week, but who doesn’t?

Projected Cash Increase This Week: +$50-$60k

Next 3 Opponents: West Coast (Metricon), Adelaide (MCG), Melbourne (MCG).

 

*NEW* 5.) Brad Crouch (MID) $108,500 ($0) B/E: -61 AVG: 62 Last 2: 62, 63

Kommer out, Crouch in seems to be the popular down the line trade this week, for good reason too. No longer can we wait on rookies to sit a week or two out or to miss out on massive cash grabs this year. A few people with cash up their sleeves might be able to turn Kommer into a Hodge/Mullett/Parker (see below), but for me, getting Crouch in (if named) is the way to go. I think he is due for a bigger game soon.

Projected Cash Increase This Week: +$50-$60k

Next 3 Opponents: Western Bulldogs (AAMI), Carlton (MCG), Hawthorn (AAMI).

 

6.) Sam Dwyer (FWD/MID) $141,600 (+$52,300) B/E: -57 AVG: 58  Last 2: 3490, 51

Was very flat last week after a pretty exhausting couple of weeks prior. Still, he is up there with one of the highest cash grabs from the rookie class this week (being he was below $90k to start with helps). Big two games ahead against the Tigers and Bombers, I see him holding his spot as Beams/Ball are still a few weeks away and with Pendlebury being rumoured to be sitting this week out, Dwyer should be fine.

Projected Cash Increase: +$45-$55k

Next 3 Opponents: Richmond (MCG), Essendon (MCG), St Kilda (Etihad).

 

*NEW* 7.) Jack Hutchins (DEF) $108,500 ($0) B/E: -57 AVG: 60 Last 2: 48, 73

A bit of a “unique” pick if you have him, a little off the radar for many of us. I thought he was one of the best last week for the Suns off half back and with a few more games and confidence under his belt, we will see his DT output increase quite a lot. Still, if you are all set down back, look for other area’s to invest in at this stage.

Projected Cash Increase: +$40-$50k

Next 3 Opponents: Port Adelaide (Metricon), GWS Giants (Manuka Oval), Fremantle (Metricon)

 

*NEW* 8.) Callum Sinclair (RUC) $105,300 ($0) B/E: -53 AVG: 57.5 Last 2: 47, 68

Now here is a bit of a strategic ploy. With NicNat still at minimum, 3 weeks away, the Eagles have found themselves a nice little (not in stature) back-up. By bringing in Sinclair as our 4th Ruck to complement Blicavs, if you go Rowe in forward line. You instantly fix the Daw/Currie dilemma as you will get cash rewards as of next week for Sinclair. It’s a trade I am looking to make, but I expect carnage when team sheets are released (late of course) tomorrow. Play by ear.

Projected Cash Increase: +$40-$50k

Next 3 Opponents: Carlton (Patersons), Port Adelaide (AAMI), Western Bulldogs (Patersons).

 

*NEW* 9.) Jackson Merrett (MID) $127,800 ($0) B/E: -61 AVG: 68 Last 2: 65, 71 

Jackson was omitted last week for the trip to WA and will surely be in the mix this week for the suspended Kommer. If that’s the case, Jackson’s first price hike of 2013 is on the cards. Is owned by 3.3% of teams at this stage so will have to provide a big score to warrant his unique selection. Hasn’t been the worst scorer either with a handy 65 and 71.

Projected Cash Increase: +$40-$50k

Next 3 Opponents: St Kilda (Etihad), Collingwood (MCG), GWS Giants (Etihad).

 

*NEW* 10.) Matt Jones (MID) $163,800(+$60,900) B/E: -37 AVG: 67.5 Last 3: 69, 48, 86

Has leapfrogged (but only just) Viney as the cash grab of the two Demon rookies. Both play against the Giants this week and I am sure all Melbourne players do not want to lose that game. For those that have Jones, hold onto him, he grabbed his highest score last week and hopefully he can hit those hits or higher again this week!

Projected Cash Increase: +$40-$50k

Next 3 Opponents: GWS Giants (MCG), Brisbane (GABBA), Carlton (MCG).

 

Stocks Rising (lead balloons):

Jed Anderson: $144,800 (+$36,300) BE: -35 AVG: 49.5 Proj Cash: +$30-$40k RD3 Rising Star!

Jack Viney – $165,700 (+$63,000) BE: -24 AVG: 69.3 Proj Cash: +$35-$40k

Nick Kommer STOCKS SUSPENDED (2 Weeks) – SELL

Mark Blicavs – $138,400 (+$29,900) BE: -20 AVG: 44.7 Proj Cash: +$25-$35k

Brent Macaffer: $132,600 ($0) BE: -39 AVG: 58 Proj Cash: +$35-$45k

 

This Left Feels Right (Hot Property):

It’s a new world we are living in Dream Teamers and with that, times change and we must embrace it, or fall behind. The Stock Market principles stay the same, but we have so many more options now, how do we keep up? We research, we watch certain players and above all, we buy ourselves a lucky Buddha and plant in on your desks.

These players aren’t the usual crop of players you would consider normally throwing into your Dream Team, but now, they are. Not necessarily one’s you will keep, but you will use them and boot them.

The biggest part of this, is knowing when to strike. A made up example would be:

Player A is say: $600,000. They are about to drop $40,000 in price, and the week after they might drop another $30,000. You have him in your team, he is one of your guns.

Coaches who don’t have Player A are licking there lips at getting him in their sides in two weeks. Normally you would hold, ride the wave and move on.

Player B is $400,000, just smashed out 2 massive games and looks set to rise the opposite direction with a couple of on average games. What do you do? You trade out Player A, for Player B.

Instantly your bank balance has $200,000 extra in it. Now you ride the wave for 2 weeks and both players have similar output games give or take and in two weeks down the track, Player A is worth $520,000 and Player B is worth $480,000. As Player A now has a B/E that is obtainable, you go bang, and do the reverse and trade out Player B for Player A.

Now you have your gun Player A back in the side, you are up $160,000 on those 2 trades alone (you will also have 4 other trades in that time to use) and looking to invest in upgrading another position.

That my friend, is the new ball game.

Justin Westhoff (FWD) $463,300 (+$68,800) B/E: -20 AVG: 131 Last 3: 100, 154, 140

THE HOFF. He is becoming a DT cult figure, in just 3 weeks, well 3 weeks and quite a few years. You just cannot deny his output this season. Who is “The Hoff” you ask? You are living under a rock, and a very large hairy one. Justin Westoff is dominating. This year bringing in players such as the Hoff, to gain a huge amount of money and also a massive DT output, is the new black. Breakeven is -20 for a bloke averaging 131 in 3 games, what the. Will you jump in Kit and take a ride with The Hoff?

Projected Cash Increase: +$50-$60k

Next 3 Opponents: Gold Coast (Metricon), West Coast (AAMI), North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)

 

Luke Hodge (MID) $398,600 ($0) B/E: 1 AVG: 117 Last 2: 99, 135

Machine. Chuck Norris like. Has a few battle scars, but my god he never gives up or goes into a contest half heartedly. Back to his damaging best last week and it’s been great to see. Averages roughly 95 against his next 3 opponents and with a B/E of 1, he another cash grab and output option for your midfield. Hodge won’t be under $400k again for a long time.

Projected Cash Increase: +$35-$45k

Next 3 Opponents: Fremantle (Aurora), North Melbourne (MCG), Adelaide (AAMI).

 

Aaron Mullett (MD) $312,500 (+$59,800) B/E: -15 AVG: 96.3 Last 3: 89, 102, 98

What an option this bloke has turned out to be. If you don’t Maric, you need this bloke. Everyone needs a mullett in their team and this one will be earning you some massive cash whilst hopefully continuing with his DT output. But don’t be too cute, if your midfield is travelling nicely and you don’t have any premiums shedding cash and costing you points, then hold firm.

Projected Cash Increase: +$35-$45k

Next 3 Opponents: Brisbane (Etihad), Hawthorn (Aurora), Port Adelaide (Blundstone).

 

Chad Wingard (MID) $306,200 (+$56,700) B/E: -28 AVG: 93.3 Last 3: 71, 107, 102

Another bloke riding the hot streak of Port Adelaide is 2nd year breakout Chad Wingard. Played 19 games last year for the Power averaging a touch under 50. The next couple of weeks he should earn a further $70k. But he is definitely not one likely to stick around in your DT. Risky but rewarding none the less (scores pending).

Projected Cash Increase: +$35-$45k

Next 3 Opponents: Gold Coast (Metricon), West Coast (AAMI), North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)

 

Luke Parker (MID) $390,300 (+$46,700) B/E: 4 AVG: 104 Last 3: 85, 115, 112

Only 2.1% of coaches own Parker! I expect that to change this week, he is dominating and looks fantastic. In saying this, he has played the Giants and the Suns and the true test is Friday night against Geelong.  So with the last 3 I mentioned, its a large roll of the dice, but for the sake of making money and not losing cash on guys who could’t touch sand if they fell off a camel, it’s an option. This year’s DT winner will be brave, bold and lucky.

Projected Cash Increase: +$30-$40k

Next 3 Opponents: Geelong (SCG), St Kilda (Westpac), Brisbane (SCG).

 

Jammed Guns and Bullet Holes :

This segment will grow once we have the chance to really start making some upgrades. For now, I’m taking a look at just 2 players who may or may not be on your radar as your first upgrade. These 2 Guns have already dropped in price and look to further drop price, barring an incredible score.

Gary Ablett (MID) $618,800 (-$23,700) B/E: 177 AVG: 108 Last 3: 135, 84, 105.

After a performance to never forget in Round 1, Gablett has had quiet past 2 rounds and with that, gone down a little over $20k in price. With all these rumours that he will miss this week, there is a worry to know what to do. Play it smart and by ear and use common sense. If he plays, he has Port Adelaide this week with a huge breakeven. But the following week is the Giants where he averages 102 in 2 outings. He could do anything that week, could even be rested the next two weeks! Arggh. Stay tuned.

Target Price To jump On: 1 or 2 games time he could be nicely priced at $580,000.

Next 3 Opponents: Port Adelaide (Metricon), GWS Giants (Manuka), Fremantle (Metricon).

 

Dane Swan (MID) $662,200 (-$25,900) B/E: 168 AVG: 115.3 Last 3: 123, 117, 106

Isn’t dominating, but hasn’t gone missing either. This little DT piggy is set to explode at anytime and ANZAC day is his all-you-can-eat buffet. Swanny starting price was huge, the highest in the DT land and a few people have opted to leave him out in hope he will dip in price quick and rapidly. Whilst not a huge dip, his price is going down nicely for these people that went without him at the start.

Target Price To jump On: Depends how long you wait. In two weeks he could be $620,000. 

Next 3 Opponents: Richmond (MCG), Essendon (MCG), St Kilda (Etihad).

 

Right that’s me done for this week. Hope to bring you even more next week now that the season is in full swing and that the DTSM time slot is locked in place. Remember, be smart. These figures are still only estimates (not far off might I add) and any trades you make are totally up to you. Dream Team is frustrating at times and rewarding in others. Stick to your guns and bring down your friends!

Quick shout out to my Twitter league who are currently sitting nicely in 17th place. Great stuff everyone!

On that note, follow me on Twitter if you enjoy a good ole hashtag @Aki_DT.

 

161 Comments

  • Opponent doesnt have Pendles. Pendles out would be a disaster.

  • I’m on the fence at whether to trade Embley to Crouch or Hodge. With Van Berlo out, Crouch may get more game time? Hard decision, but then again Hodge is a gun…

    • crouch will make more money in the long term

    • Depends on whether you want to play the long game or short game. Crouch will make more $, Hodge will get more points.

  • Reports from AFL site that majak daw to debut this week

  • I’m versing a really tough opponent this week and really want to beat him. Should i go gunston>rowe or gunston>martin?

    Also preety keen on making westhoff captain. good or bad idea?

    • If you think your opponent has your mantle, a risky captain choice is an easy way to try to sneak a few extra points.
      I still think Hoff is due for a bad game. Saying that i saw his last game, looked amazing.

  • Any thoughts on Mitch Robinson as an upgrade? Dropped in price, done ok before, but is Mick using him differently?

    • I’d stay away from him for now better options available. Out of form badly. Guys like westy, monfries, nick riewoldt, cloke all better options I think. will score higher and the first two mentioned will make some handy cash.

  • mitchell > k cornes

    kommer > crouch

    thoughts?

    • cornes seems back to his old ways of consistent 100+ scores still has reasonable break even. Could pay off. kommer to couch is a good trade

    • nice but instead of Kane cornes I would go someone like swan, ablett, pendelbury, Cotchin, swallow,Watson, or even hodge

  • monfries or cloke? that is the question

    • i’d go monfries as I think there’s more money to be made and he should average 85 plus for the season I reckon you could then off load him in a couple of weeks for cash. Although cloke had a great game last week he hasn’t convinced me enough that he has that consistency he had like 2011. I could be wrong

      • don’t you think his 2012 was deflated due to his head being out of it due to prolonged contract talks. add to that, he has scored well so far this year against strong teams… whereas monfries has performed against weaker opponents and after GC, Port have some tough opponents in the next 4-6 weeks…

        • Cloke only scored 60 odd against carlton. Monfries is the fittest I’ve seen and is getting more midfield time under hinkley. Obviously monfries is not a premo keeper but if you want someone who will score respectable and make a few dollars for a few weeks id go him. If you want someone who has higher scoring potential then cloke’s your man but there will always be a chance that he’ll get those low scores also.

  • Terlich, Rowe or Crouch????? Who will score higher? they will be playing on my field. Thanks

    • if they are all playing on your field then you don’t need to know :)

      • haha nah i have to pick one of them to play on my field. i only have 1 trade left. i cant decide….

    • now that van berlo’s out, I’d get crouch assuming he’ll get more game time. but if u have cox, swapping rowe and cox between positions would be useful. i reckon get nathan wright instead of terlich next week.

  • My team as of now:

    DEF: Birchall, Gibbs, Godard, Goodes, Stevenson, Pittard (Heath, Terlich)
    MID: Pendles, Swan, Cotchin, S. Mitchell, Ablett, Moloney, O’Mearea, Crouch (Viney, K.Mitchell)
    RUC: Cox, Berger (Blicavs, Daw)
    FWD: Martin, Kennedy, Rockliff, Buddy, Neade, Dwyer (Rowe, Macaffer)

    $279,300 left.

    Option A:
    Go K.Mitchell > Mayes then sub Mayes for Dwyer, leaving Dwyer on MID bench and Mayes starting FWD. leaving $251k.

    Option B:
    K.Mitchell > Ollie Wines. $155k left.

    thoughts?

    • thats a no brainer. K Mitchell out Wines in. Then get Mayes next week before his price rise as he has only played one game

  • Would Ivan Maric to Goldstein be a good trade?

    Cheers

  • Goddard, Gibbs, Heppell, Goodes, Stevenson, Pittard (Terlich, Heath)

    Swan, Ablett, Watson, Pendlebury, Cotchin, Wines, O’Meara, Viney (Kommer, Mitchell)

    Cox, Burger (Blicavs, Daw )

    Bartel, Rockliff, Zorko, Robinson, Kennedy, Neade (Macaffer, Dwyer)

    8K remaining

    Trade Suggestion/Thoughts???
    I need to get out Zorko and either Mitchell/Kommer?

  • not sure what trades i should do this week. Any ideas?

    def: God, Hep, Birchall, Gibbs, Goodes, Pittard (terlich, stevenson)
    mids: Gaz, Swan, Pendals, Cotchin, Moloney, Wines, O’Meara, Viney (crouch, mitchell)
    ruck: Cox, Burger (bilcavs, currie)
    fwds: Dustin, bartel, rocky, wright, kennedy, neade (rowe, macaffer)

    have only $600 in bank as well.

  • Matthew Pavlich will be out for 6-8 weeks due to an injured Achilles that requires surgery.

  • out of heath, stevenson and pittard which to should i start on the field

  • same

  • I will win round this week,(easy opponent). Any thoughts on best trades for cash injection, ready for upgrades next week?

    Def:God, Hep, Gibbs, Goodes, Stevenson, Terlich. (pittard, Vlastuin)
    Mid:Swan, Ablett, Swallow, Fyfe, Moloney, Wines, Whitfield, O’Meara. (K.Mitchell, Viney)
    Ruck:Jacobs, Berger.(Blicavs, Currie.)
    Fwd:Martin, Kennedy, Rockliff, Bartell, Wright, Dwyer. (Patton, Mcacaffer.)

    $496,700 cash in bank.

    Cant decide on which trade for Patton.
    want to get Birchall, and another gun Mid, but not sure when to strike?
    Thoughts?

  • Patton > Hoff (should make you $50k after this round) – This is a must IMO
    Then either choose between:
    K. Mitchell > Crouch
    K. Mitchell > Hodge (gun mid and will make u some good coin)
    Currie > Rowe (Currie isnt making you money anytime soon and Rowe has good job security with Kreuzer out)

  • recommend trading pittard for hutchins (already have terlich)

  • I am baffled as to what trades to make. I’m placing a high priority on cash generation obviously but points are also important as I’m in the top 1k and am playing a good opponent this week. Should I:

    1. Gazza – Hodge, Maccaffer – Hoff.

    2. Stevens – Hodge, Currie – Rowe

    3. Kommer – Crouch, Currie – Rowe

    Although trading out gazza is kind of double handling cos I need to get him back in, he’s leaking cash and his sale will allow me to get Hoff for the last viable week. This also means ill miss out on both Rowe and Crouch… Thoughts please thanks in advance

  • as many other dt coaches im really worried that gaz won’t play, is gary ablett going to play against the power ??

  • Okay who to put on the ground…

    Neade or Rowe?

    Pittard, Stevenson and Terlich? (Choose 2 there)

    Cheers guys

  • My Team:

    DEF: Gibbs, Heppell, Goddard, B.Goodes, L.Stevenson, J.Pittard SUBS: C.Heath, N. Vlastuin

    MIDS: D.Swan, T.Cotchin, G.Ablett, O.Wines, N.Fyfe, P.Dangerfield, J.O’Meara, J.Viney SUBS: N.Kommer, K.Mitchell

    RUCKS: D.Cox, M.Leuenberger SUBS: M.Blicavs, D.Currie

    FWDS: J.Kennedy, T.Rockliff, J.Bartel, L.Franklin, J.Neade, T.Varcoe SUBS: S.Rowe, B.Macaffer

    $323,400 in Salary Cap Overall Rank: 14,980

    i got a few trade options i can go for little bit unsure on which way to go, the no brainer is Varcoe who has to be traded out.

    My options:
    Trade 1:
    Terlich IN Vlastuin OUT
    OR
    B.Crouch IN Kommer/K.Mitchell OUT

    Trade 2:
    Martin/Hoff IN Varcoe OUT

    Theres probably another 1 or 2 trades i can do aswell but only got 2 to use.. aha

    Thoughts on my team overall and thoughts on trade options and anyother trades i could do?? would be great to get your thoughts :)

    Cheers

    • I’d go with

      Varcoe OUT Hoff IN = Hoff will make you cash, plus should score well this week.

      K.Mitchell OUT Crouch IN = Mitchell is back to rookie with Salter back in. Both your Mid subs aren’t playing.

      Then do the Vlastuin to Terlich trade next week. Im in simular situation to you.