Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 20

 

Righteo – Yep… I did it again and just check out my players over there from last week. 39% of people took my top pick in Ablett for his 108 and 12% took Montagna’s 112. I’ve been very impressed with Adam Goodes lately and he made me proud last week for his 115! Everyone else was very solid with the expection to Bartel who after a promising start fizzled his way to a poor 78. But I did have him a #5 so that saved my cred a little.

This week I have changed the format. Why you ask? Cause I can, and I’ve been dominating with my picks recently, so I am trying a new method to challenge myself ha ha. But seriously, this way I’ll cover more of the BIG guns, with more detail, rather than wasting time of the dudes we don’t even really consider. Let’s face it… if you don’t have any of these gun below… you should have quit along time ago. Hope you enjoy! Lets roll.

GARY ABLETT

Vs Bulldogs @ Etihad

Why? Gary averages a nice 115 in his last 3 against the Bulldogs, with all his scores of 103, 125, 116 happening in 2009. The game is at Eti were Ablett had 103 in his only game there in 2010, but he did average 120 there in 2009. Ablett’s form is good, and he is back on track averaging 127 in his last 2 this year.
Why Not? Last time these guys met was the Q-Final last year. The Cats won by just 14pts and Gary got the nasty Picken tag. As we all know Picken can tag with the best on them, so that worries me a little. Gary had 103 that day but still had 31d. Gary was also only one of four Cats to crack the ton that day as well.
In A Word – Maybe you don’t have Swanny or you hate Swanny and are looking for someone else. Ablett is a sure thing to crack a ton, my prediction… 108.

LEIGH MONTAGNA

Vs Kangaroos @ Etihad

Why? Firstly he has cracked 100+ a nice 73% of the time this year and is one of the most reliable dudes going around. Leigh averages 113 against the Kanga’s in his last 3 with previous scores of 134, 106, 100. Last time he played them he had 134 in Rd.2 this year where he had 35d, 7m. In this game the Saints won by a massive 104pts and the Kanga taggers were pretty quiet. Rawlings didn’t tag anyone and had 34d himself as his role has somewhat changed this year which is nice to see. 8 St Kilda players cracked 100+ and of course Mont was one of them. This game is at Etihad and Montagna just loves it there. In fact, over the last 2 years he has cracked 100+ there a massive 74% of the time.
Why Not? Not many really. His form has been ok, but he is only averaging 93 in his last 3 this year.
In A Word – His form is not bothering me here one bit. He’ll be fine, especially if you are going off his last encounter with them.

PAUL CHAPMAN

Vs Bulldogs @ Etihad

Why? Chapman has cracked 100+ this year a very impressive  88% of the time and there are not many people who are even close to this. His lowest scores this year are 88, 99 and is averaging 115 for the year. Impressive.
Why Not? There are plenty of reasons unfortunately. Last time he played the Dawgs he only had 81 for his 16d and 2.3g, but he did twing his hammy and it did effect his game. Against the Dawgs he averages just 68 in his last 3. In fact he played these guys 3 times last year, and all those 3 scores feature in his 5 worst scores for 2009. His last 100 Vs the guys was way back in ’07, making them his worst team (easy) over the last 3 years.
In A Word – Too risky for this week I reckon. He’s a gun and you can never write him off, but just too risky. You have been officially Calvinatedly warned.

JIMMY BARTEL

Vs Bulldogs @ Etihad

Why? No reasons. Don’t do it.
Why not? Well, here we go. His form is terrible. He is averaging just 83 in his last 3 games this year and did not bounce back well last week after a week off for his 78pts. Jimmy started really well last week and had a 35 at the quarter and then 60 at the half. From here he only managed 18pts (all in the 4^th quarter and none in the 3^rd), so what happened? Ran out of juice? Who knows. Last time he played them in the Q-Final he had just 87 (19d, 3g) but he copped a cut on his eye which might have effected his game. In his last 6 games he has only cracked 100 a poor 33% of the time. Oh and his history against the Dawgs isn’t great either with previous scores of 87, 100, 69, carrying an average of just 83.
In A Word – His form is just too terrible, and his history here nearly matches it. It’s a big ‘pass’ for me here.

DANE SWAN

Vs Essendon @ MCG

Why? Firstly because it’s Dane Swan. Last week only 18% of coaches backed in the big fella, compared to the 65% who have done it in previous weeks. I might have scared a few people off, and I do apologise, but we do need to be cautious, and understand all the risks. He left us (and me) with egg on our faces after he had 127 against Geelong. Will you turn your back on him again? No. He averages 125 in his last 3 games this year, and had 30+ touches for the 9^th week straight. He also had his 6^th straight game where he has kicked at least 1 goal. He averages 110 in his last 3 games against the Bombers with scores of 83, 107, 141. In 2009 the Bombers where his 2^nd favourite team to play (of 2 or more games) with those scores up there of 107 and 141. Swanny is at the MCG where he is averaging 128 in his last 3. His form is that hot you can’t really look past him.
Why Not? Well… the 83 he had in his last game against the Bombers is his lowest score for 2010, and the Bombers did it to him in Rd. 5 this year. Collingwood won that game by 65pts and Swanny got an effective tag from Hocking. Swan only managed 25d that night and only 4×100+ scores were had in the game. Meaning maybe another ‘lock down’ DT game again. Also, surprisingly enough, the MCG isn’t his favourite ground. He averages just 106 at the MCG for 2010 and a massive 136 at Etihad. Mad hey!
In A Word – Lock and load. Don’t regret turning your back on him again.

LENNY HAYES

Vs Kangaroos @ Etihad

Why? Lenny is in great form and is averaging 125 in his last 3 this year with 132 last week. Hot hot form in fact. To make things better, Lenny is playing at the ground he just loves, Etihad. He has scored 100+ there a massive 9 times in his last 9 games at an average of 117. Bu the good stuff ends there I’m afraid.
Why Not? It’s not a bad average here Vs them, but it is 99 in his last 3 against the Roos and across his career they are his 3^rd worst team. Last time they met (Rd. 2, 2010) Lenny had only 75 pts for his 20d, 5t. The 75 Lenny scored was his 2^nd worst score for the year. The Saints thumped the Roos in this game and still Lenny only managed to be only the 15^th highest scoring Saint for that game. He wasn’t tagged (which is good) and went head to head with Ziebell, and must have just had a shit day out.
In A Word – His form is hot and he loves Eti, but there are better options I reckon.

ADAM GOODES

Vs Fremantle @ SUBI

Why? I might cop a little for having Goodes in this group here, but he has just been too good, to overlook. So listen up…. He averages 126 in his last 5 games this year with previous scores of 115, 119, 124, 116, 158. See what I mean? He actually doesn’t mind playing Freo either with an average of 111 in his last 3 against them. Add that reasoning to the 115 he had in his last game at SUBI and we are looking at a gun who might fire again. Last time he played these guys was in Rd. 9 this year where he managed 102pts (23d, 8m) and was closely monitored by Tarrent… who is now not playing, yep… lick your lips. Keep in mind that Freo gave the Roos 7×100+ score last week and you might just have yourself a roughie who could and should go BANG again.
Why Not? We have some reasons that might scare you off this inform jet. Freo are his 2^nd worst team and in you look past his last 3 games against them you will see that Goodesy has 0x100+ scores  in his 11 matches before that. Old history I know, but worth noting.
In A Word – I like Goodesy this week. Always a slight risk, but his form and recent history is very very promising.

MATTHEW BOYD

Vs Geelong @ Etihad

Why? His form has been awesome up until last week. He still averages 115 in his last 3 this year and this week he is back at Etihad where he averages 135 in his last 3 there. Geelong last week also gave up the most 100_ scores they have for the season against the Pies (7) so maybe he might pop up for one of them if they are giving them out.
Why Not? Last week he had just 82 (told you so) for his 22d which broke his run of 8×100+ scores in a row. In his last 3 against Geelong he has averaged an ok 98, but the problem here is the fact that he has only scored 1×100+ on the Cats in his career of 13 games.  Last time he played the Cats was in that Q-Final where he had 29d (with 78% of them in handballs) for just 81.
In A Word – I’m saying pass again, but what would I know? I only picked Boyd to score low last week as well, but who listened? So yeah.. pass this week and shop for a captain somewhere else.

BRENDON GODDARD

Vs Kangaroos @ Etihad

Why? Owww, I like the look of this. Firstly he averages 112 (112, 115, 109) in his last 3 games this year and has slipped under our radar lately despite his solid form.  Over the last 13 games this year, Goddard’s lowest score is just 96! Last week he floated around loose in defense for his 34d, 7m and even snuck up for 1g. His form against the Roos is great. He averages 125 in his last 2 against them with a massive 137pts (4g, 29d, 11m) in his last against them in Rd. 2 this year. That day he was poorly tagged by Firrito. Goddard also has a smashing record at Eti with 10×100+ scores in his last 10 games there with a super average of 117 (which is 1 game more in a row than Lenny, but with the same average). You liking this?
Why not? I’m clutching at straws here but better write something negative. He’s due… law of averages…. Dunno. No reasons.
In A Word – Not many will go Goddard this week. They will mainly go back to Swanny, or Ablett. So if you are looking for a unique pick…Goddard will be amazing and you should certainly consider him big time.

Personally, I will be back on the Swan train. Up until last week, Swan had averaged me 139 in the last 4 weeks, then I went Montagna. Will not make that mistake again, I’m sorry Swanny, please keep it going big gun. But, on the other hand, geez I like the look of Goddard… bloody hell I do! Anyway, hope you drill a ripper!