Firstly, lets go over why we are all here. You want a good captain going into your first final. And after my record lately, you have come to the right place. Check it out. 65% of people last week went Swan for his 114 and 22% went for Ablett 127. The other boys over there were pretty good and as I’ve said… you have come to the right place. Oiii arggg…
Essendon Vs Carlton
Stanton – 102
Marc – 88
Judd – 85
Gibbs – 81
Jobe – 74
Here we go… Friday night footy and it should be a cracker at the G. Stanton averages a nice 102 here in his last 3 against the Blues and after coming off a 134 last week, I wonder if Ratten will give him the freedom of running loose around the backline? I’m tipping a Carrz tag. Jobe has been in good form with 120 and 123 in his last 2 this year. But the Blues are his 3rd worst team as he hasn’t cracked the ton in his last 7 games against them. Juddy hasn’t hurt his shoulder, he had a bruised peck and should be ok to play. He only had 51 last week though and would be a risky option. Bryce Gibbs plays his worst team this week. Based on that alone, I’d be looking somewhere else.
Rd. 3, 2010– The Bombers got up by 20 when these guys met last and Kade Simpson led the way with 120pts going head to head with Watson 83. Stanton was the games 4thtop scorer with 109. Marc Murphy was tagged by Welsh and only managed 78 and Juddy DNP. The Blues used Joseph to play straight up on Zaharakis and might be used this week with a more important role.
Giving Them Up– The Blues have given up 14×100+ scores in the last 3wks. Placing them equal second worst in the competition alongside St Kilda (if you can believe that). Might be a good night out for the Bombers.
Sydney Vs Hawthorn
Goodes – 109
Hodge – 83
Buddy – 82
Mitchell – 78
Kirk – 76
ROK – 68
Goodesy has been smashing it. With scores of 119, 124, 116, 158 in his last 4 this year. Plus he has a great record here against the Hawks and must be on your radar because of it. Firstly his form is wicked and then against the Hawks he has scored 87, 124, 117, 112, 105. Plus to make it even better he had 158 in his last game at the SCG. Goodesy will smash it this week, but the big call is yours. Are you willing to risk the “C” on someone you probably haven’t had as captain yet this year? Especially going into the first round of Finals? Why not? He ticks all boxes and will have a cracker! Kirk gets a mention again cause he’s a legend but after averaging just 48 in his last 3 this year, he is probably looking forward to the end of the year himself. Buddy hasn’t scored over 100 Vs the Swans in his last 3 and DT TALK’s own, Luke Hodge is yet to crack 100 in his career of 11 games against them (clearly his worst team). He was held to just 57 last week as I wrongly predicted that Sam would get the Kane Cornes tag, instead, I was wrong Luke, sorry bro. Sam Mitchell did have 107 last time he played these guys back in Rd 10 this year, but that was his only 100+ against them in his last 8 games.
Last Time They Met– As I just said, Rd. 10 this year where the Hawks got up by a tiny 2 pts. Jack went to Burgoyne (65) and Kirky went to Sam Mitchell (107). Hodgey only had 14d that day as Nick Smith did the job on his for his 84pts.
Nth Melbourne Vs Fremantle
Pavlich – 107
Harvey – 81
Sandilands – 78
Brent Harvey was tagged by Van Berlo last time these teams met and in that game he hurt his wing (elbow) and had just 39pts, which obviously effects his average of 81 up there shitloads. Pavlich is the one to watch here I reckon. Last week the Big Pav had 98… which still keeps his record intact of not scoring over 100 in his last 8 games this year. He has gone 111, 88, 123 in his last 3 against the Roos and I’m tipping this is the week he’ll crack the ton. He only averages 84 at Etihad this year from his 5 games there. Not sure but I reckon he’s good for a 103 (just). Sandilands plays his worst team this week and hasn’t cracked the 100 mark on these guys in his career of 6 games against them.
Rd. 10, 2010– Yep same as the game above. Freo got up by a huge 10 goals though and my man Duffy top scored with 118. Crowley went to Ziebell (71) and Hasleby went to Swallow (77). In this game not one Kangaroo players cracked the 100. Crazy.
West Coast Vs Brisbane
Cox – 103
Brown – 101
Priddis – 78
Who knows what to expect from this game. Dean Cox has had 37 and 79 in his last 2 games this year and looks to be back in his earlier form of this year – lift Deano! Against these guys he has had 52, 99 in his last 2 but before that, between ’08 and ’06 he averaged a massive 137 (over 4 games). He usually loves playing these guys, but as I said… Who knows this week. Brown is another one that could go BANG or FIZZ. He does average 101 here in his last 3 against the Eagles, but he hasn’t scored 100 this year since Rd. 2 of this year. Argg. Oh my… and with Fev out?… Who knows.
Last Time They Met – Rd. 1, 2010 Brownie went off his face. 22d, 14m and a bag of 5 goals for his 138pts. Can the big boy do it again? Who knows…
Brissie Given It Up– You got a WCE player this week?? Lucky you! Brisbane have given up a massive 22×100+ scores in the last 3 wks. Way way way more than anyone else. They are playing shit, but letting us coaches cash in on heaps of points. Lick your lips if you have a WCE dude this week in your first final.
Melbourne Vs Richmond
Tuck – 106
Sylvia – 105
Deledio – 92
Green – 74
Not overly much to chat about here. Warnie’s boy Colin Sylvia has been smashing it lately with an average of 125 in his last 4 this year. He played these guys back in Rd. 4 this year for a thumping 125. He surely will crack 100+ again here and loves playing against the poorer teams in the league. Lock it a big one. Shane Tuck is coming off a huge 141 last week and after his 127 last time they met, he might be worth a bet.
Adelaide Vs Westerndawgs
Gia – 102
Cross – 94
Cooney – 93
Thompson – 92
Boyd – 73
Higgins – 69
Vince – 60
Well, lets see if things improve here. Thompson has had 112 and 122 in his last games this year and has been in wicked form. Gia is the man on top of the list though after he has had 125, 80, 101, 123 in his last 4 games against the Crows and with scores of 119 and 111 in his last 2 this year, shows that he might be due for a good one. Daniel Cross is another Dawg hitting form with an average of 130 in his last 3 games this year. His record is solid here but not many people have him for this option, and those who do probably have better options. Cooney plays his 2nd favourite team here in the Crows and might be ready to go bang. But it’s Matthew Boyd who I want to talk about here. He is my first player that concerns me. He averages just 73 here in his last 3 against the Crows and they are his worst team to play DT wise. He has just scored 3×100+ scores against them in his career of 11 games. Not overly convincing hey? His form is amazing though and might get your selection based on that alone. He has scored a low of just 114 in his last 8 games this year with an average of 127 over this period. He has been “Swan-Like” and certainly worth a thought this year based on that alone, but the Crows are his worst team.
Rd. 5, 2010– Last time they met the WBD won by a massive 60pts. Boyd DNP which allowed Gia to run in the mids with the other big boys. Gia had 125 that day thanks to his 35d. Riley was moved to him late in the game but it was too late, the damage had been done… lets get onto the BIG GAMES of the week.
St Kilda Vs Port Adelaide
(Sunday Arvo @ Etihad)
Montagna – 106
Hayes – 104
Kane – 96
Voldt – 90
Dal Santo – 72
Goddard – 72
Lenny Hayes has been in wicked form. His last 2 scores against these guys are 105 (23d, 11t) and then a 130. He should definitely be on your radar this week… along with Montagna. His previous scores look like this against the Power, 126, 77, 116, 108. His form as been solid and he will avoid any type of tag this week and might be the guy to get you over the line. Goodard’s numbers are are shocking. The Power are his 2nd worst team and he has played these guys 9 times in his career for only 1×100+ score. He has 0x100+ in his last 4 against them, making them his 2nd worst team to play, you’d have to pass based on that alone I reckon.
Kane Cornes’ Tag – Lock in Dal Santo. Kane always tags him and is a 100% lock to do it again. I know I said Kane would go to Sam Mitchell last week but then he went to Hodge, but I’m certain about this. He has been to Dal Santo oodles in the past and after the Power beat the Saints last time (with the Kane tag to Dal) it will happen again. Kane loves playing the Saints and has good numbers here to by the way. In the last 4 times they have met, Dal Santo hasn’t scored over 85. Kane went to him in Rd. 5 this year and in 2009 and will do again, letting Montagna and Lenny run free.
Last Time They Met– Well in this game back in Rd. 5 this year. Port won by 10 which makes me think that they will adopt the same plan as last time. Kane had 92 and tagged Santo (75). Montagna had 36d for his 126 and Clinton Jones tagged Boak (85)
Loving the Etihad– Oh don’t they ever! Lenny Hayes has had 8×100+ scores in a row there in his last 8 games and Montagna averages 104 there in his last 3 with scores of 110, 68, 135.
Geelong Vs Collingwood
(Saturday Night @ MCG)
Chapman – 130
Bartel – 126
Ablett – 117
Corey – 102
Selwood – 101
Swan – 91
Stevie J – 89
Pendlebury – 88
Didak – 79
Righteo…. Here we are the old Ablett VS Swan debate will be firing here so lets get into it by covering the Pies first. Didak hates playing the Cats and has only cracked the 100 mark once in his career of 12 games against them. He does average 118 in his last 3 this year but I doubt that will save him on Saturday night. Pendlebury had a nice 129 last week but these guys are his 2nd worst team to play behind the Swans so cross him off. Then we have Dane Swan and I’ll be honest with you… I’m very worried this week. And I’m not just saying that to turn and turn people off him (including my opponent this week, Warnie). But seriously… his last scores against the Cats are just 94, 68, 112 which are quiet average The 68 was in the Prelim Final last year where he got a lot of attention from the Pink Pig. So, who knows but it might happen again. The Cats are his worst team to play in the last 2 years and I’m starting to get worried. Swan has been a lock in captain for us all over the last few weeks and I reckon this week we need to think very hard about what we are doing. He has scored well for us lately with a low of just 110 in his last 9 games this year with an average of 128 in his last 3. His form is amazing and his form at the MCG even better, averaging 128 in his last 3 there. But seriously, you have been warned. I still might go him based on what he has done for me over the last few weeks, but… you have been officially calvinatedly warned. Joel Corey averages ok here and had 130 last time he played them in 2009. Stevie J had a huge 144 (6g) last week but has not cracked the ton in his last 4 against them. Bartel is a bloody good option I reckon this week. But can you go him after he had a week off? E averages 126 here in his last 3 with previous scores of 125, 147, 106. Last year after Bartel missed a game he bounced back for just 94 the following week so look into that what you like. I still like Bartel here as he is a ‘big game player’. He loves the stage and will have a good one this week! At the MCG he averages 120 this year from his 6 games compared to his usual favourite ground, Skilled Stadium where he averages just 94 this year. Loves the MCG, but if he’s burnt you this year already, you might still be angry with him and therefore looking elsewhere. Another wicked option is Chapman. He is coming off his worst score for the year though (88) and has a ‘bump’ to the knee which slowed him down last week. He averages a huge 130 here to be the best of the group with previous scores of 107, 130, 152. He is slightly different to Bartel when it comes to their favourite grounds this year as Chappy averages 107 at the MCG compared to the 127 he averages at Skilled Stadium. Crazy hey! However, Chapman as we know is also a big game player (Norm Smith Medallist) and will be out to run a muck this week. Carefully consider this jet, cause he might just have a 130+ in him on Saturday night. Then we have Gary Ablett who averages 117 here with previous scores of 105 (his 4th lowest of 2010) and 114, 134, 118, 115. Pretty impressive. He loves playing at the MCG with a lowest score there of just 109 in his 6 games there with a high score of 145. Gary will love this battle on Saturday night so look out for a huge score from him.
Locking Them Down – The Pies. They have given up the lowest number of 100+ scores over the last 3 week. 5×100+ scores in total to be exact placing them at the #1 hardest team to score against (equal with the Hawks) over that period.
Rd. 9, 2010– This is where the Cats won by 36. Jimmy toped scored for his 125 (30d) going head to head with Ball. Pendles (81) was tagged by Lingy and therefore Ling may do him again. Kelly and Enright had 120+ each and Chappy had 29d for his 109. Swan had a sore knee and hobbled to 94 for his 25d, 6m. The other thing to note is that 12×90+ scores were had by the Cats and only 2×90+ scores were had by the Pies.
Mr. Negative Man – “They Will Go Bad”
In a Nut Shell (recap)
Swan – cause he might get the Pig tag and has only scored 94 and 68 in his last 2 against the Cats who are his worst team of the last 2 years.
Ablett – cause he had his 4th worst score this year was against the Pies in his last and the Pies are giving up hardly any 100+ scores.
Montagna– cause he broke his nose last week, has had surgery and will be shaky. Plus, he might get the Kane Cornes tag is Kane doesn’t go to Dal Santo.
Chapman – cause he’s coming off his lowest score of 2010 and he has a ‘sore’ knee.
Boyd – cause he plays his worst team this week and only averages 73 in his last 3 games against the Crows.
Bartel – cause he didn’t play last week and has burnt many people this year when we have backed him in.
Dal Santo – cause he will get the tag from Kane and can not handle it at all, making Port his worst team to play.
Goddard – cause he has only scored 1×100+ on the Power in his career of 9 games making them his 2nd worst team.
Hodge – cause he hates playing the Swans as he has never ever scored a 100+ on them in his career of 11 games.
Personally, I’ll be going Chapman, Swan or Montagna this week. Still no idea as all this writing can sometimes do your head in. My top 5 is in order though of who I am going at this stage. So based on that… I’ll be going Montagna, Chappy then Swan as I don’t have Gary. But then again I might get nervous late on Friday night and go with Swan…. Arg. Either way… pick with care this week cause it’s pretty tough. Mr. Negative Man is exactly that… being very picky and just making sure you have thought of everything. Good luck though in your first final. Happy DTing.