Brian Lake – Deck of Dream Team 2013

Name: Brian Lake
Club: Hawthorn
Position: Defender
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $392,800
Bye Round: 11
2012 Average: 76
2012 Games Played: 20
Predicted Average:  90

Why should I pick him?

At first, I couldn’t really understand why the hell Brian Lake was even in the deck? Who would want a washed up 31yo in their dream fantasy team ?

Obviously ol’ Brian must be some chop as he averaged a Bradmanesque 99.77 back in 2010, including huge a ceiling of 192 which was a record score at the time. Back then the Western Bulldogs were a top 4 team and he was running around with his mate Hargrave playing chippety chip and throwing himself forward whenever he wanted.

With a bit of research into the correlation of Lake’s DT scores and his team success, I found that we are dealing with one of the biggest downhill skiers in DT!

Year	Games won	DT Average winning	DT average losing
2010	14	110	81.5
2012	5	105	69

*didn’t include 2011 as only 5 games were played

So with Lake’s off season move to Glenferrie, we are now putting one of the sluttiest defenders in DT  in one of the sluttiest defences of the AFL. Lake is gonna rack up those +6 with his new BFFs Birchall, Suckling and Guerra. Even last season when the bulldogs finally realised that their premiership window had slammed shut, Lake tonned up in 4/5 wins and the other score was a super respectable 94.

Lake is priced at an average of 76 which I believe is underpriced for him if you take into account his success in a winning team, thus why I think he could get his average back to the 90 mark if he stays on the park. Lake’s job security at Hawthorn should also be pretty good. You don’t trade for a 30 year old of Lake’s ilk in a premiership window if you’re not gonna play him .In 2012 Lake also showed us his durability of yesteryears (2 games missed from 2005 – 2010) by playing 20 games and showing 2011 wasn’t a sign of things to come. Add in potential DEF/FWD eligibility and Lake becomes someone you may start to consider….

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Many a DTer would naturally not even consider Lake simply because he is over 30 and this is probably one of the biggest reasons he won’t be as popular as others around his price such as Broughton, Enright and Adcock. Lake had a horror season in 2011, playing only 5 games and many people thought he was finished. While he showed his durability last year he may be one bad injury away from retirement. There also seems to be a curse at Hawthorn with new mature age recruits succumbing to injuries early in their time at the club with Gibson, Burgoyne Hale and Bruce just to name a few that have endured this.

Other things to think about before locking Lake in your team is to consider why Lake was recruited by Hawthorn. There is no doubt Lake will get loose throughout the season, but there is a lot of people saying that he will take the #1 forward every week, leaving Josh Gibson do what he does best and be 3^rd man up to punch  (imagined if he marked…). Taking a Cloke or Hawkins every week comes with a degree of accountability which is largely frowned upon in  DT circles, so expect Lake to have some 50’s with his 120’s

Deck of DT Rating.

Queen. Lake is a pretty big gamble to start the season with, as given we only need 6 forwards or defenders, he will likely slip down the pecking order further . Lake may slip into the ‘unique’ category and a good POD to the Gibbs’ Goddard’s and Broughton’s of many a teams defence line.

 

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