Matt Roberts – Deck of DT 2025

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Why should I pick him?

Matt Roberts is a player who is fresh in the minds of fantasy coaches after being a highly relevant starting pick last season. Roberts was drafted in 2021 as a midfielder, but after plying his trade in the reserves in this position for a couple of years he was shifted into a defensive role and it worked wonders. Starting the season in the best 22, Roberts took advantage of his juicy new role as one of the primary distributors in a dominant Swans team, making a heap of coin as a rookie priced player.

Across the first seven games of 2024, Roberts averaged 83 fantasy points per game (including Opening Round). However, the Swans then shifted him to a wing role, where he struggled to find the footy and was then both dropped and made the sub several times over the next couple of months. In round 18 he returned to the half back role, and from then until the end of the H&A season he averaged 104 fantasy points per game. This is uber premium areas for the defensive line and is remarkable for a player in his first season in the role, especially given the mid-season interruption. Excluding his games on the wing and as sub, Roberts averaged almost 94 fantasy points per game for the season. In the run home he didn’t drop under 89, and hit ceiling scores of 138, 125 and 102 along the way.

Across the season Roberts took 68 kick-ins (bettered only by Nick Blakey who took 108) and was the only Swans defender that took a notable number of these to play on 100% of the time. Barring the two month stretch where Roberts fell out of favour, he and Blakey took a similar number of kick-ins, with Ollie Florent chipping in.

A few things fell into place for Roberts to score at the level he did at the back end of the season including injuries to Justin McInerny and Dane Rampe, however Callum Mills also returned to the team and played largely in the backline so it’s hard to pick and choose here. The consistent theme was that Roberts was close enough to the number one distributor in the team, and all reports so far this preseason indicate he is again training in this role.

If Roberts can indeed retain the role he will be highly relevant this season, and given 2024 was his first season in this position it’s plausible that there is further improvement to come.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

A new coach always brings uncertainty. With John Longmire stepping down and Dean Cox stepping in, changes are imminent at the Swans. Whilst it sounds like Mills will exit the backline which could open up more opportunities for Roberts, we don’t know whether Cox has any plans to alter the game style or get the ball in the hands of players like Blakey even more. Additionally, the Swans have a heap of defenders who can all score; Blakey, Florent and Harry Cunningham are all highly capable to say the least, whilst defenders like Ben Paton and Riley Bice are new additions to the team with scoring pedigree who could line up in round 1. Jake Lloyd is a wingman but still has an immense ceiling and can take points away from his teammates at will, and all of this is without discounting the fact that Mills can be thrown back at any stage. Roberts’ only avenue to being a viable starting option is if he firmly takes on the role of main distributor exiting defence, or at least a ‘1A/1B’ type of setup with Blakey. These two admittedly play vastly different styles, with Blakey the ‘run and gun’ operator whilst Roberts sits deeper and likes to retain the ball. They complement one another well, but the pendulum can swing in Blakey’s favour at the drop of a hat.

The positive thing in this regard is that Sydney play in Opening Round, which gives fantasy coaches a free look at how they will setup. However, this means they have an early bye, and theirs is round 3 which coincides with a heap of other relevant players from other teams. Even though AFL Fantasy moves to the best 18 format in these rounds, having multiple players on the same bye (and possibly in the same line) is hard to navigate so when it comes to mid-pricers on this bye you will want to prioritise those with the greatest value. As such, Roberts would probably need to produce at least 90 fantasy points per game to be a viable pick. Sydney’s early fixtures for defenders are okay without being amazing, but unfortunately a lot hinges on Roberts’ score in Opening Round. If it’s a good one, then his early cash gen will be more assured and will fill coaches with confidence in the pick. However, if his score is a poor or even modest one, he then sits at a very awkward price to start.

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN

Matt Roberts is my pick of the defensive mid-priced options this season. Last year when he had the distributor role he averaged 94 points across 14 games with an impressive ceiling and large kick-in share. Reports this preseason suggest he will maintain this role, and whilst he is competing with competent scorers alongside him in defence with a new coach at the helm, I’m confident he can have significant upside on his starting price.

At under 6% ownership right now, this is a player who is flying severely under the radar and everyone should have a close eye on him in Opening Round. Unless his score or role in this game is underwhelming, I think he will be someone who features heavily in starting sides this year.

DidakDT

DidakDT is a Collingwood fanatic who possesses a love of data and its use in fantasy sports. His obsession with fantasy footy has carried over into the BBL, NBL and the NBA.