Adam Cerra – Deck of DT 2025

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Trent – coach of aluniesheis – was the 2020 AFL Fantasy Classic champion. He joins us today as a special guest for Winners Week where a former No.1 comes on to chat about a player for the Deck of DT.

Why should I pick him?

If he is fit and with an uninterrupted pre-season, I cannot see Cerra being over 30points behind Walsh who is in a lot of sides (8% to 2%). Before 2024, Cerra was on a steady fantasy trajectory to keeper status before his hamstrings failed.

From 2021-23, he averaged 87.3, 88.1, and 94.9 and with only a CBA % of 45, 55 and 57. This shows that he can score 90+ without bulk CBA’s.   In 2024, after an interrupted pre-season he was out in R2 and then again from R5-7; and his season never got back on track. He’s priced at 72.5 points or $745, and this includes 2 games with less than 50% TOG.

Importantly, Cerra has a ceiling. This means, if fit, he could score heavily in R1 against Richmond and against Hawthorn and the Dogs (although Hawks were a tough match up in 2024).  In 2021-2023, he scored a 137 in ‘23, 129 in ’22, and 138 in ’21.  Interestingly, his heat maps from those games are Wing and Centre, which shows us that Cerra scores well in open play and transition play and not necessarily just from stoppage. To add extra weight to Cerra, he gets more possessions in the back half, which means his scoring will not be impacted by a fit Walsh or Cripps (although possibly from Docherty if he stays midfield).  Also, from his 10 MCG games in 2023 he averaged 97.2 and 4 of his first 5 games are at the MCG.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

His hamstrings are held together by cheap piano wire, but after a recent trip for repairs (see Carlton website) apparently, he is good to go.  If fit, a reason to not pick him will be- is there enough points upside to warrant selection? For a player at 72 we’d want his previous best of 94 to warrant selection and to be able to achieve this over a 7-10 week stretch- will his hamstrings survive that long?  Additionally, he has the nasty habit of snapping his piano wire hamstrings during games, and therefore he ruins both your trade plans and scoring.

The other reason to avoid Cerra will be the midfield mix and fitness of players like Walsh, Cripps, Docherty, Hewett, Smith, and the improving Hollands brothers.  However, I feel this is offset by Cerra’s 90+ scoring in 2023 with only 57% CBA. That is, being flexible he could find himself at half-back, wing and centre.

Also, Docherty and Hewett’s midfield time or defensive half time could impact Cerra’s scoring.  The more you look at Cerra as an option the more a fit Docherty at a similar price point appeals and you probably don’t want to take an injury risk on both Docherty and Cerra, and Docherty (8% owned at $782) has a higher fantasy pedigree. Basically, you don’t want too many players who could breakdown in your side.

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK

To pick Cerra I need to see a perfect scenario: 1- No injury during the preseason 2- Clear roles for Docherty (defence), Hewett (Defensive mid) and Cerra playing 50% CBA in preseason and across half-back and wing. Under those near perfect conditions there is every chance he can return to above 90, but just as importantly start the season well.

aluniesheis

Trent Sutcliffe, coach of 'aluniesheis', won AFL Fantasy Classic in 2020, one of the most challenging seasons to date.