Tom De Koning – Deck of DT 2025

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We’re all after the 2025 version of Xerri, aren’t we? Could TDK be it? In Classic, he’s circa $300k cheaper than the two big ruck dogs from last year.

Why should I pick him?

With/Without

In his 6th season in 2024, TDK had a career high average of 87.8, which was 21.5 ppg up on his previous year. He’s already broken out I hear you say. Yes, but there’s still meat on the bone when you dig into his with/without scoring with Pittonet (see below – I’ve included the finals scores).

TDK with and w/o Pittonet, 2024

A no Pit Bull scoring bump of 12.3 ppg may not seem enough, but that includes an injury affected game of 61. If you remove that (Cal says it’s ok) he gets an extra 4.2 ppg (overall average of 102.7).

There is a risk that Carlton employs the dual-ruck strategy, which can limit TDK’s scoring. But, if Carlton are serious about contending for a premiership (apparently, they are coming…), then they just have to go with TDK as the solo ruck. Of his 10 solo games last year, Carlton won 9 of those. In the 14 games that Carlton fielded Pittonet, they only won 4 games.

Carlton Scoring Sources

As expected for a ruckman, TDK scores a significant percentage of his points from stoppages (66% in 2024). Last year, Carlton was ranked 5th for ruck contests per match and 3rd for goals per match. Given they are a high contest and goal scoring team, TDK will get ample chances to generate fantasy scoring at stoppages.

Fixture Analysis

Using DFS Australia’s Defense vs Position analysis from 2024 (last 10 matches), Carlton have a great run for rucks to start the year. This could lead to decent cash generation in Classic for TDK, allowing coaches to cash in at the main bye if they wish to upgrade.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Value vs Set and Forget Strategy

Like every year, we’ll hear the arguments for and against the Set and Forget ruck strategy. By not employing this strategy and picking TDK, one would save about $300k in the ruck division for use elsewhere. But, can we really put that money to good use this year in a meaningful way? The forwards in 2025 all look to be value players, the premium defenders have no value and may even go backwards, and the midfield is no longer the strong scoring line it once was. Does dropping $200k or $300k on the head of one of your current mid-price players bring them up to a bonafide captain option? Would the safer option be to run Marshall and Xerri as your C/VC? I definitively have more confidence in getting a consistent captain score from one of the two big ruck dogs than I do a premium from one of the other lines.

Injuries

Across his career, TDK hasn’t played more than 19 games in a season. The last three seasons (inclusive of finals) he has played 18, 19 and 19 games. He simply loves an injury. Nothing big, but annoying niggles leading to a game or two missed here and there. If you have to trade him before he has increased in price, you’ll need to find money from elsewhere in Classic to get in one of Marshall or Xerri.

Carlton’s Threat of a Dual-Ruck Strategy

As mentioned, when Carlton play Pittonet with him, TDK’s scoring is severely affected. Even though Carlton is a better side without Pittonet, there’s always a risk that Voss decides to do the dumb thing and employ the dual-ruck strategy.

Mid-Season Bye

If you want to pair him with Xerri in Classic to start the year, you need to bear in mind that they have the same mid-season bye. As such, you’d likely have to trade TDK leading into round 12.

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN

Coming into his 7th season, TDK looks like he’s ready to take the leap as the solo ruck at Carlton. This could lead to some value as a 100 average season is reasonable. However, this would only by an increase on his 2024 average of around 13 points. Is that really enough value to forego the scoring power and captain options of the Set and Forget ruck strategy, plus likely having to use an upgrade trade in the ruck in Classic? I’d personally want around a 20 point increase, which puts his average at about 107 and in the conversation as a top 3 ruck. I’m not convinced he could do that over a full season just yet (maybe up to his bye given his team’s good run). If he can show in the preseason that he can take the scoring leap to circa 107, then I might consider him in order to give me more cash to play with elsewhere. But, at this stage I’m leaning towards going with Marshall and Xerri from the start of the season. If one of those two is injured early, at least I’ll be able to downgrade to TDK/Gawn/English.

He’d be a great pick up in Draft if you don’t have the high draft picks to go one of the big ruck dogs. I’d be confident he’ll be available in the 2nd or 3rd round, especially in 8-10 team leagues.

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Russ2468