Bailey Smith – Deck of DT 2025

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Why should I pick him?

We’re starting the 16th edition of the Deck of DT with the most relevant player – or could that be irrelevant as everyone has him – Dog turned Cat, Bailey Smith.

Bazlenka is the most picked player at this stage in AFL Fantasy Classic and with good reason. He didn’t play in 2024 and receives the massive 30% discount going into 2025. This is applied to his 2023 average of 83.3 which means Baz is priced at a ridiculously cheap 58… and retains his MID/FWD status.

Now that 58 is lower than any season long averaged he’s posted before – including his debut season which saw him go at 69 (nice) across 23 games in 2019. His PB was in 2022 where he went at 105.6 from 17 games. He opened up with 154 in round one and was averaging 118 across the first 10 rounds. It was an outstanding start but things went pear-shaped when the whole ‘white powder in the bag’ photo got out and he was suspended. On returned he played out the next seven games at an average of 92.

2023 was a solid season, but Smith’s 83.3 average from his 19 games was a bit disappointing. With just five tons, he was essentially Bevo’d playing more of an outside game going from 54% CBAs to just 30%.  Half of his games from round 10 onwards produced sub-70 scores. Of those five tons, just two were over 105 as opposed the ceiling he showed in 2022 where nine were 105+ and five at 115+ featuring three 130+ scores.

Scoring potential is there, so long as the role is right!

Following his 12 months out of the game due to the ACL he did in December 2023, Bazlenka was traded to Geelong and looks to have the keys to the engine room at Kardinia Park. Smith suited up for training from the get go and hasn’t missed a beat. He’s training in the centre square and that role as an inside midfielder is a given considering his ability to run all day.

Priced at 58 means if he’s on the park, then he’s a lock … but it is all adding up for that 90+ average and to be in the mix for F1.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

This is going to be hard, isn’t it?

Geelong are an Opening Round team and therefore have an early bye … and it’s the trickiest of them all. Round three will see four teams on the bye – Brisbane, Collingwood and Sydney along with the Cats – which is a change from last season. While most of us will still pick players with value despite the early bye, this one also features the heavily discounted Lion Keidean Coleman and the Swan combo of Callum Mills and Matt Roberts. This might be more of a decision between those three as they are all down back, it could be a factor as you balance your team.

Obviously a lot has to play out. Returning from ACL brings problems for many players. The positive is that Smith will be 15 months post-injury and the pre-season is all going to plan. But tempering some expectations is important. While I think he should be that 90+, there is a world where he isn’t. Whether that is Geelong’s system that saw Max Holmes (94.5) as their top scorer … and the next best midfielder being Patrick Dangerfield (79.6). Or it could be that he’s eased into it and due to his tools, could end up having a bit more outside time. He can run … wingers run!

What is the line where the upside isn’t enough? Sub-80? That’s probably still a tick at 20+ points up on his starting figure.

If … and it would be a big if … Bazlenka’s Opening Round score was sub-70, his early cash generation wouldn’t be extreme. Cats have Lions at the Gabba in Round 0, so it’s not easy as they were the 3rd toughest team overall to score against (inside MIDs ranked 6th). This is followed by Freo who were mid-table before the bye. Could you jump on after the bye provided the Opening Round score isn’t a heap better than that priced at figure? Still something that would be a big call to take on.

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE

Can I start with an ace? Of course I can! Smith is every chance to be the absolute knockout pick of the year. Could he go over 100? Possibly. We’re all picking him anyway – and even if he is the worst-case scenario IMO of mid-80s, it’s a massive win and would still be a season-long keeper pending any ridiculous FWDs being added. Not often do we get a potential F1 priced at under 60, but here we are and we just lap it up! There’s 2 other selections to make – and yep, some might feel like no-brainers – but avoid Bazlenka at your peril!

You don’t want to try and take it on as there isn’t a lot of upside with leaving Bailey Smith out of your round one squad.

Warnie

Co-captain of DT Talk since we started this thing in 2007. Best finish was 13th in 2009... that was a long time ago. Follow on Twitter: @WarnieDT