Jordan Dawson – Deck of DT 2024

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Life is all about hard choices… What job do I take, should I let go of this friendship, should I buy a house or have some Avocado? But no choice in life will be harder than the one we are presented with: Do you start Rory Laird or Jordan Dawson in AFL Fantasy in 2024? Both of them don’t have an early bye, and they each present something tempting to the common AFL Fantasy coach. 

I’m going to take a crack at trying to convince you that Dawson is the man you should pick, or at least consider to be your M1!

Why should I pick him?

He scores lots of points, and very rarely lets you down.

Jordan Dawson was the third-highest averaging midfielder last year, improving from 101 in 2022 to 113 in 2023. I haven’t seen an improvement this large since North Melbourne only lost by 20 points to the Bulldogs instead of 60! 

After a relatively slow start to the season (as seen below), Dawson had a small rest at the bye and then went ballistic! 172 in his first game back led to a 6-round average of 132 and coaches were left behind if they didn’t have him in their team (There is a small possibility I only agreed to write this article because I wanted to point out that I brought him into my team in R15).

Having such solid consistency with very few bad scores (only two sub 90) means he can be a terrific option for a VC… speaking of which.

Adelaide plays a lot of early games to start the season at home

Adelaide’s strong performances last year have meant it has a nice fixture to begin the season. In the first 15 rounds (r16 and on still to come) the crows have Six Thursday and Friday night games. Of these six, a whopping five are at home! This places Dawson (and Laird) in such a good position early on to use your VC loop!

While we are on the fixture, their non-home games include matchups against Gold Coast R1, North Melbourne R7 and Hawthorn R12… all of which who you would back Dawson to go large against!

He’s the captain and has room to improve

Increasing your average by 12 points is no mean feat, and there’s the very real possibility that he could add on a few points. Dawson’s slightly slower start to 2024 means there is definite potential to get 3-5 extra points which is what coaches will be after. He’s also had a full season battling in the midfield to get the points, so who’s to say he won’t go another 12 points up? (besides history and logic)

Dawson is a terrific captain (and is a real one unlike DC), and Adelaide will continue to feed him the ball at every opportunity.

Laird doesn’t impact him

A few people out there think that the improvement of Laird in 2024 will stop Dawson’s scoring, as they’re both fighting for the same ball. However, doing some incredibly quick analysis that may or may not be wrong indicates that there is no real correlation between Dawson’s scores and how Laird performed.

The dots on the below graph show the scores that the two had in an individual game, i.e. in the bottom left When Laird scored 50ish, Dawson scored 90ish. Plotting 22 rounds of data (Laird didn’t play R19) shows that there is no real correlation to their scores, and if one performs, the other can too. That R2 value of 0.0018? That means there is a better chance that Paddy Dow will be M1 this year than the chance that Laird and Dawson’s scores are correlated. QED*.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

$$$
As I wrote last year about Clayton Oliver, “historically, the most expensive players are not any particular value to the coaches that pick them, and the best teams don’t start with these uber-premium mids, and instead invest in value. While Oliver proceeded to go bananas to start the season, eventually he, as all living things must do, regress to the mean. (I have a maths degree I never get to use let me have this). Our forward line is looking a little rough at the moment, so if people want to overinvest in the DEF/ FWD then going for the value of Laird might be better than spending $1m on one player who’s unfortunately a mid only, then I can understand that.

Attention
Dawson has gone from strength to strength year after year, and there is the potential to improve as he gets more experience in the midfield, and let’s as he’s only 26. However teams know just how crucial he is to Adelaide, do we see him getting a bit more attention this year? We thought this might happen last year and barely did, so there’s more than a bit of wishful thinking as evidence that he won’t get tagged.

His last 4, and the emergence of Matt Crouch

This is a stretch as I can’t say his “Last 5” because it included a 134 in Round 20. But From R21 to 24 Dawson went at an average of 97.5 with scores of 98,91,96,105… Was he getting figured out by coaches? Was he tired out? Or was it just a small lean patch we should ignore?

The theory that scares me is that Matt Crouch came into play… and took a lot of the ball. Dawson scores well when he gets close to his 30 touches, and in those final 4 games, he had 24, 23, 19 and 24. In the same games, Crouch had 33, 31, 26 and 31. If Crouch looks to have his 30+ possession role in the preseason and is named R1, that may be enough to scare me off Dawson.

Got married?

Okay, I’m grasping at straws here…  He did get married to his high school sweetheart over the break, so maybe he’s just too in love to focus? Maybe he realises there’s nothing to play hard for because he’s locked it down?

Deck of DT Rating.

KING

I’m not saying this lightly…70% chance Jordan Dawson is M1 for next year. He’s currently in my team as with a lot of the Hat Chat boys thanks to groupthink and them all copying me. You may prefer the value of laird, but I saw Dawson is a KING.

Given just how expensive he is, I’m not sure we can call him an Ace, and teams surely can’t keep letting him roam around.

*(yes I am aware this is not how R2 works but my point stands)

Follow Nathan on X @obermullet and also @HatChatAFL.

Obermullet

Nathan is a full-time North Melbourne fan who is determined to get an AFL Fantasy Hat. He is a part-time podcaster at Hat Chat, which takes a weekly look at the AFL Fantasy world, targeted at those coaches looking to win a hat!