Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera – Deck of DT 2024

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Why should I pick him?

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera had a 2nd year jump to remember after moving from a wing in his rookie season to a role off half-back in 2023. The result was a 31 point jump from year 1 to year 2, meaning he will enter his 3rd season priced at 91 points and in the upper echelon of defenders for AFL Fantasy.

Being 20 years old his 2nd year in the AFL, he could be excused for starting slowly in a new role. He averaged 83.4 points in the first 11 games of the season leading up to the bye (which is still a 25 point improvement from his rookie year). After the bye, however, his confidence and familiarity of the role really started to show, averaging 97.8 points in the back half of year.

He led the team in kick-in percentage at 42% for the season, beating best and fairest winner Jack Sinclair who was the next closest at 36%. This responsibility for a 2nd year player means that the club wants the ball in his hands and they trust him to execute with his beautiful left foot and penetrating kick. His slight frame, combined with this elite kicking ability, mean St Kilda won’t want him doing much actual defending. Therefore, he should be freed up to concentrate on getting the ball and racking up fantasy points.

St Kilda are one of 10 teams who do not have an early bye round, so you can start him in your classic side and have confidence that he’ll be able to run up to the regular bye rounds without missing time. Speaking of byes, his regular bye round (round 15) is perfect for a player who has potential to be a top 6 defender but hasn’t yet proven it over an entire season. Worst case scenario, he gives you what he’s priced at and can be upgraded after his bye round to someone in the top 6. Best case scenario, you’ve snagged a top 6 defender at nearly 10 points of value. Having the final bye round is a big advantage for this kind of player as you will have a plethora of premium defender options to choose from if he is someone you are wanting to move on from at this time.

All this and we haven’t even mentioned that typically a player’s third year is where we can see some major improvements (3rd year breakout anyone?). So what’s another breakout look like for someone who’s already jumped 30 points from year 1 to year 2? He’s only played 40 games so far in his short career and already looks to be one of the best kicks in the competition, so the sky truly is the limit for this young player. Lastly, despite being one of the best kicks in the competition, he is still more than likely to be safe from any kind of tag as long as Jack Sinclair is running around out there for the Saints.

In draft formats I also think he should be boosted up your board, he will be entering the season just about to turn 21 and played all 23 games last season suggesting some strong durability. With a lot of other question marks on some of the higher averaging defenders, NWM might just be in the top handful of players that in all likelihood you’ll be able to get decently later.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

St Kilda were by far the highest scoring AFL Fantasy team in 2023, 70 points per game clear of 2nd best, Carlton. When you’re at the top of the fantasy scoring tree, there’s only one way to go and that’s down, especially when you get bounced out week 1 of the finals.

If St Kilda opt to change their game style even a little bit this season, this could affect the average of someone like Nasiah. To begin last season, the Saints won 5 of their first 6 games and in this time NWM averaged 76 points. Now it’s tough to say if this was the learning curve of playing a different position or if this was the result of a faster more pressure-focused game style which led to early season success for St Kilda. If they opt to try and replicate this style of play for the full season, the 2nd half average for Nasiah might be a little out of reach, leaving him a bit in no man’s land when it comes to AFL Fantasy.

The Saints also have a weird schedule when it comes to playing at their home venue Marvel Stadium, only playing under the roof 5 times before their round 15 bye. After the bye period is where the majority of these games are stacked, playing 8 out of their final 9 games at Marvel. This is particularly relevant for a player like Nasiah who relies on marks and clean disposals, as poor weather could easily affect his scoring. The lack of stadium ceiling could limit his scoring ceiling (cue Luke Rogo Dad joke laughter). In his games at Marvel NWM averaged 95.1 points vs 85.4 in games not under a roof, also 3 out of his 4 110+ scoring games were from Marvel games.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is a special talent and a true rising star of the competition. He’s already shown top 6 level scoring capacity over a decent sample size of 12 games after his bye last year and going into his 3rd AFL season this could even be his floor. The Saints were a fantasy gold mine last year, and while there is a risk it heads south, being only the 2nd year under Head Coach Ross Lyon I doubt they will change the game plan too dramatically.

In a year where value premiums without an early bye are worth their weight in hats, Nasiah Wangeen-Milera is someone you should definitely be considering, at the very least.

Follow Mitch on X at @ballboysfantasy.

Mitch Casey

One half of the Ball Boys AFL Fantasy Podcast duo