The Thursday Scramble: Round 4

Another Ruck Down! Heaps of Eagles Down! And Rookies getting injured/dropped. On top of that it is now the time of the year to start planning for our upgrades over coming weeks. Problem is, will we have any trades left after we do all our injury fix ups to be able to do any upgrades?  Let’s Scramble!

Who’s our next Ruck!

How many trades is enough to use in the ruck?  Where have the days of Set and Forget gone? The good old days of Gawn and Grundy and lock them away seem to be gone. I do feel for those that have had Xerri, Gawn and now Cameron in their rucks and now have to make another trade. So where to turn next?

The problem you probably have though is that if you are needing to trade out Cameron you probably used any spare cash you made when you went Gawn to Cameron which means that unless you are trading someone else to get some money you are going to be a little cash poor. So where do you turn?  The problem you have is that most of the top rucks cost more than Cameron so a English, Marshall, Witts, Nank, ROB, Grundy and Darcy are all out of the question unless you get some cash.  Of those, if you can’t afford English, then Marshall is your next best option, but odds are you already have him in your side.

Grundy has the role for the next few weeks solo or if you are prepared to run the Jackson risk you can go Darcy.  The only issue with going to Grundy is that you are going to have Max back in that side in a few weeks time and at that point Grundy probably goes back to his forward role and you would have to make another trade in the rucks.  So of that “not quite top price bracket” then Nank (avg 112) is my number 1 pick there as he is off to a flyer this season. ROB (avg 93) could also be the go with his solo ruck status not under threat from anyone.

If cash is a problem for you? Then you will need to look at Big O (avg 77), Flynnsanity (avg 79) or Ladhams (avg 74), so nothing to write home about here.

Whatever you do, try and make it a pick that you know you will be comfortable with for the rest of the season because there is every chance that you will be stuck with that person due to having bigger issues to fix up in other positions.

When do we start to cash our Cows in?

We are getting very close to this time of the year now.  It won’t be long.  We have already had some Rookies on the chopping block but that is mainly because they have been injured or dropped or simply don’t have the role that we thought they would. These are the ones that we have been side swapping out so far. But as for fully fattened cows to be upgraded, it won’t be long until we get there and of course keep an eye on Cash Cows by Fry on a Wednesday for all the info you need there.

Personally I am stuck with both Constable and Chesser in my side at the moment, so with Chesser now injured and Constable possibly not getting a game any time soon I will be looking to do one down and one up if I can this week to try and make the most of a bad situation where both may not reach their peak any time soon.

Can I hold an injured Rookie?

Of course you can! But really you don’t want to be holding for any more than 1-2 weeks as this is the key time of the game to be making cash for those upgrades that we are hoping to see in the next few weeks. As mentioned above I have Chesser who is now out for around 4-6 weeks from what Xavier Ellis was saying and as a result that is just too long to have him sitting there not making any cash so I will be looking to move him on. If however, we know they are only out for that short period you can hold if they have a really juicy break even. Where I see a rookie’s average or recent scoring that is only about 10 points or less more than their BE then I wouldn’t hold for that injury, I would cash in and move on.

Questions

Our good mate John (@SinceUBeenGawn) asked me this week who would be the first two to go from Constable, Callaghan, Worpel and Sheed. Should it be based on which two get him the best upgrade option.

John, I tend to agree with you there, look for what combination is going to give you the best bang for your buck with your trade. Usually that will mean trading out the highest priced players to get to that next step.  But also keep in mind the proximity of their scoring to their BE and just see if you can squeeze any more out of them.  If I look at their differential to BE from their average we have Callaghan (16), Worpel (27), Constable (82)* and Sheed (5).  From this raw data you would trade out Callaghan and Sheed.  However, looking at it there is one other * involved and that is that Constable finds himself out of that Suns team.  So whilst he could make us plenty of money, you can’t do that in the VFL.  Similarly with Sheed we will see him potentially pick up a few more possessions with half the Eagles out, but who knows on that one.

So I guess my answer for John would be to look at moving on Constable if he isn’t named this week along with Sheed as he has the smallest differential and also is worth the most so you can get the best value out of the trade whilst keeping a couple of guys that shouldn’t move too far in price.  If Constable plays then I change him for Callaghan due to that differential and dodgy shoulders.

Things to Remember

• Last couple of weeks to make your fix ups before we need to start doing upgrades.
• We should be now seeing some trends of scoring from both players and teams so keep that in mind and also check Cal’s Scale of Hardness
• Use the Meatloaf rule.  2 out of 3 ain’t bad when looking at a player that has had just one down game and see if there is a specific reason for it.
• If you trade out a premium for another one you should just know that they will have a form reversal for that first week!

Best of luck this week everyone. Hope you all get some wins on the board.  Just a reminder for regular readers and something for new readers, I don’t always get to the comments in a timely manner to read and comment due to work but I do appreciate them and when it is far too late to reply I am always pleased to see that other Scramblers have jumped in to help out with some answers to the questions (and 99% 0f the time it is the same answer I would have given). So apologies if I don’t always get to your comments/questions, it isn’t because I don’t want to it is simply a time thing.

Cheers everyone and see you next Thursday for the start of Gather round here in Adelaide.  At this stage I am attending the Fri night Tigers v Swans game and then the double header on Sat avo with Dees v Bombers and then Power v Dogs so I might see some of you there.  And for those heading up to Mt Barker, I was up that way at the golf course a few weeks back and it is right next to the oval and the oval was looking fantastic!