Catch The Traders every Thursday evening from 6:15pm AEST as they talk the teams for the upcoming round. The boys are live on AFL.com.au and the AFL Live app. You can also head to facebook.com/AFLFantasyOfficial to join the show. Ask your questions in the comments or via Twitter as Roy, Calvin and Warnie help you get set for lockout.
Find the podcast
Recent Comments
on Hat Stats for AFL Fantasy 2023: “Thanks for that instructive analysis. You made particular mention of how many of the big guns started with Will Day…” Dec 8, 20:36
on Fixture news, Colby McKercher’s Fantasy game, Grundy a Pig again? – Ep. 635: “My biggest concern is the price movement of players, particularly rookies from Opening Round games. We are gonna have one…” Dec 6, 12:23
on Fantasy ramifications of proposed 2024 season opener fixture: “I think the original Hawk has also be delisted by Admin :) Good Luck in 2024” Nov 29, 13:24on Fantasy ramifications of proposed 2024 season opener fixture: “And Sam Menegola (not Menengola as commentators call him) has been sadly delisted!” Nov 27, 17:34
Podcasts
The Preseason
2024 AFL Fantasy positions
Fantasy 101
Hat Stats for AFL Fantasy 2023
Roy has got me considering Xerri, even though I can hear in his voice he’s not going to do it.
FMDT
Don’t get sucked into what these guys say JungleMuffin. Even Cal says don’t get Worpel. I bet he will be a good player to make money. Then Cal says no don’t even think about picking J Hunt. I’ve got him for about 5 – 6 games to make me money. WCE picked Hunt up for a reason. And these guys tell everyone there experts.
The way Hunt scores he should make about $6-50 by round 6.
The difference is, Xerri has value. Was scoring at 75 prior (priced at 65) to his injury last season, and that is with sharing the ruck with Goldy. Post injury, he got 20% less game time, and played a much worse role, being the 2nd stringer/bench warmer. There’s pretty much a guaranteed 10 points value in him, even without considering the scoring impact of being the sole ruck instead of sharing with Goldy.
The question is, what do you do with the cash on the other end. Personally, I’ve got a few scenarios:
1) Boost my D5 or D6 by moving Ginbey onto the bench and bringing in someone like Campbell. Not a bad move, should give me a few points, but could also give me nothing, or send me backwards, especially given the question marks over Campbell’s position. That, combined with some kitty cash and the probable loss of points from downgrading my R2 means there’s not really enough reward for the risk though. Nobody else really I would consider bringing, as the options above that are slim pickings up until the premiums.
2) A reshuffle which has me moving Cheezel onto the bench, and bringing Duursma in, who I can’t really get to anyway, unless I downgrade say a Sheed, or Rozee, which I’m not super keen on doing, as again, there’s slim pickings left for me below those guys given who I’ve already got, besides maybe a JHF, who I don’t rate, or possibly Gulden.
This would give me say 10 points from the guy pushing Cheezel off ground, which is offset by the ruck downgrade, and then the difference between Rozee and Gulden, whichever way that works out. Basically the move just gives me a sweet bench option and some money for a pub lunch, so again, not sure the risk/reward is there.
Then there’s option 3. This solution is simple, really simple, and you know what our mate Occum says about that:
Option 3) Rozee to The Pig + 140k cash.
So outliers aside, that’s what, 10-15 points to The Pig, which is close enough to offset the ruck downgrade based on Xerri’s pre injury shared ruck scoring, which should be 10-15. That leaves the payoff being 140k, plus any benefit being the sole ruck for however long may provide. The downside to all this is, the Pig/Rozee coinflip doesn’t work out and Xerri scores at his price.
Roy’s roulette.
Or I could just go Rozee to Mitchell with Darcy as R2.
Vanilla?
I had xerri as R2 for much of the preseason – I think he’s in the 80s AVG and I only changed my structure once north ran that dual ruck setup in the preseason game…..that said, I’ve moved so far down the path now of locking away my other starters, without a restructure moving my current R2 down to him doesnt get me to a better defender I like – so unfortunately I’m going to pass. Clarkos comments were pretty positive actually for xerri too imo that Goldy had to earn a spot back and they were looking to play quicker style, however with Goldy only needing 5-6 games or whatever it is for 300 I can easily see the odd usage pre bye…it’s a tough call – but as you say it’s a question of how the move can improve your side elsewhere
I am tempted but reluctant Goldy could easily be named round 2 if Xerri under performs.
Set and Forget!
Good Luck in 2023
Agree 100% TCW. Goldy could even be named Emergency this week, so the backdoor is definitely being kept open with this thing, either way.
Good feedback Baldrick. It’s reassuring to hear you looked at and rated him for much of the pre season. Besides Reeves/Meek who I had locked in for the early part of the pre season, my R2 search didn’t go much deeper than the 200k mark. I think Xerri was just one of those booby prize types that could be either bargain barrel, or basement, which explains why he’s so hard to consider.
A big thing for me to consider with all this is, there’s enough kitty in the bank left over as a get out clause early, which keeps another option open for me (or maybe even helps to reach) with a couple of cheeky early season trades I’ve been considering the last day or two since the Yeo out. Could quite easily jump off Xerri next week and not be any worse for wear, even if he does score mediocre.
The Freo rucks who I’ve been considering for my R2 also play Marshall in round 1, so I’m probably already missing out on points there with double dipping anyway. The other consideration has been Witts, who’s a fine, reliable and safe ruck don’t get me wrong, but is still probably requiring an upgrade sooner or later, and provides minimal upside after last season.
Interesting countdown to lockout tonight for me. Will go a long way to finalising this decision.
Plus these guys look at wheHows the T McLean selection going?
There’s no interest for me, fantasy wise, in tonight’s game. I have no Geelong or Collingwood players- that’s just how things worked out. I have players from every other team.
Considering getting rid of Oliver and looking at someone with lower ownership. Couple of questions:
– Why is Mills’ ownership so low? Have I missed something?
– Who to choose out of Touk, Steele or Mills.
Missed some PS games, and full priced I guess.
I’ve gone Steele.
Looking at restructuring to trade Gulden to Callaghan (fielding Phillipou) which would allow me to get Day up to Dawson? Means I have to bench MacKenzie this week unfortunately. I also already have a lot of Giants mids in Cogs, Jelly, Green, and Callaghan would be my third midpricer in midfield with Sheed & Worp. Is this worth it?
Essentially Dawson & Callaghan or Gulden & Day?
Both of those setups are sound to my eye. The only real nope the one that ends up with fielding Philipou over Mackenzie.
The amount of mid priced madness is fine I think, though, 4 GWS mids may be pushing it, although it works out well enough for WB.
How do you see Day going this year? Worried about his CBA’s and Hawks being terrible…Also not super confident Gulden is going to be as good as everyone expects
I’ve got him down as an 80 playing D4 for me. Originally was going to be D5 for me after Bowes missed the praccy, with Constable at D6. Thought I’d be ahead a few points there on others playing Ginbey at D6 and Constable at D5. Unfortunately, the Yeo omission wreaked havoc on most of our teams, and while a fair few moved on to Day with minimal hassle, I’ve been scrambling a bit these last few days.
Should be a decent, safe pick that brings some value, maybe even better than that if things go well.
Gulden, yeah, I’m a bit the same. His numbers do look good, but I think that 170 a few weeks back has sucked some people in. Will definitely be pushing T6 forwards, especially if he gets more time on ball, but just didn’t have enough value there ahead of other guys to fit him in.
I was the opposite – I had Day before the Yeo chaos. Post-Yeo-out-news, I moved Day on as I went up from Yeo, and fielded an extra rookie.
Naturally, with Day now out of side, I hope he stinks it up!
Young, Daicos or McGrath?
Pedlar or Fergus Green?
Green. More or less same output, 13k cheaper, probably better JS (although Pedlar is rated by Crom), given no Lewis at the Hawks.
Looks like I’m rolling with Operation Dr Pepper The Pig, lads.
Phase 1) Piglet – Activated
Phase 2) Xerri Cola – Standby
Oh the Piglet! Snagging a sauaage in the first 5 minutes.
Oink oink!
wow footy gods might be on my side, was tossing up
1) Xerri & Stewart
2) Witts & Day
went #2 dodged a bullet 2nd game with Stewart going down.
all because of Yeo Yeo the scramble was in affect
Toni, please.
I wouldn’t be excited right now – 29 points at half time…that with a goal yikes!
Was looking fucking great with 21 points 3 minutes into the first but!
And another snagga thanks Jay1!
Saving my bacon at this stage. This is the great thing about the piglet, he can have a stinker, then pull out one good quarter and it’s all ok.
can’t believe I had Daicos in all preseason and 1 tagged game was almost second guessing him, and not going to put him in.
2nd bullet dodged
hope I haven’t used them all big season to go still lol
Anyone else swap out Daicos for Stewart like I?
Oof.
Think about Daicos is, it doesn’t even look like he’s touched it, nek minute, you check scores and he’s touched 40 midway through the second. Check back during the third, and he’s added another 50 when you’d swear he;s touched it 3-4 times.
Good Luck in 2024 Mark :)
I am Sam Hawk Menegola ™®©
Good Luck in 2023™®©
Stewart was in my team for a while, but eventually replaced by Cumming.
Stewart let me down last year with that suspension.
Operation Dr Pepper The Pig not looking so good at the moment pals. Even worse when considering I held back the V from TT to put on Dunks, and put it on Piglet instead.
Looking forward to that stonking big 100 from Xerri tomorrow though!
This game mate haha. Had Bruhn, Xerri and Sheed in until about 5 minutes before lockout. Changed it back to a 200k rook, English and JHF. Half time had me regretting that decision, seeing Bruhn on 45. 30 minutes later and he’s added 6 to that total and all of a sudden I’m feeling a bit better. The back and forth emotions though, he will now go for 40 in the last and still get 90. I don’t think anybody had a settled team when lockout came around. Most would have been changing things right until the final minutes.
With injuries in Geelongs back half, and Bruhn unable to really hold down that mid spot. Has me seriously considering finding a way to bring in Bowes as soon as he gets named. They need a Duncan type in there, but I feel Duncan is too old to play that role for them now, hence why he’s off half back now. Really feel Bowes can be a pretty guaranteed 85-90 for Geelong. Hoping he maybe misses one more week so would be easier to go from Constable type, up to Bowes when he does come back.
the ups and downs thats why we love Fantasy,
glad I’m up at the moment, ask me that question at the end of Sunday lol
have fun fantasy world, bless ya.
Changed Worpel to Tich at the last moment. But was 84 worth it?
If the Whirlpool scores anywhere near there, I’ve made a bad decision.
Season is longer than 1 week. He scored only 10 below his price, after barely touching it in the 2nd.
But there are questions for me.
Should we be concerned about Macrae being named on the wing?
I don’t think so. But then again, I’m thinking of trading him out!
Not a big deal the starting positions for the first bounce – the important things to assess if you keep or fold on Macrae after round one are if he gets more than 65% CBAs after the first bounce, and if the dogs keep to a tight CBA rotation of 5 max players that includes Macrae.
It’s unlikely but possible for Macca to be part of that tight rotation but still have low CBA % if 2 of other players get >85-90% of CBAs. I can’t see this happening.
The thing with having a possible 5 consistent CBA mids is that the dogs have no choice but to name 2 of the 5 in other positions in the teamsheets (i.e., only the 3 get named for team sheet purposes as in the centre square: 2 “followers” plus the mid named as “centre”.
Is it worth sacrificing a mid pricer, if it allows you to bring in the players you want, even though it may not improve scoring?
Currently have Flanders, Macrae & Darcy.
If I trade Flanders to Davey. I can then have Phillipou/other rookie, Crouch & English.
Just feel happier with English and have a feeling Crouch will score very well. But could lose plenty with an extra rookie up forward.
Would you do it??
Replacing mid pricers with keepers even if doesn’t improve points, it can reduce the amount of trades required to complete your team, or you can complete it sooner. Assuming you have enough income for that, which is the tradeoff of chosing a premium over mid pricers.
Guys need help
Angus Brayshaw and steele M1
Or
Young and Laird
Been torn between the 2 for days now haha
Steele/Brayshaw because they are both guaranteed top 6/8 in their lines, while Young may not be. Scoring output will probably be pretty similar though.
Another option you could consider is Andrew Brayshaw / James Sicily as well.
1. Cogs and Powell (Bench: Phillipou)
or
2. Bont and JHF (Bench: Chandler/Long)
Tossing around options for M2/M3 to slot into my structure with Laird and Dunkley (have the rest of the Big 5 up forward), 2 mid-pricers and 3 rooks.
Can afford anyone, but have narrowed it down to Brayshaw, Smith and Bont. Leaning Brayshaw with no Windhager named, but going without a Dogs midfielder is giving me anxiety.
Any suggestions for or against?
Xerri…you cannot be serious
Prayers up to our fallen soldiers. Alot of peoples fantasy season is over before the 3rd game of the weekend hit quarter time. Is it too late to create a new team, or could that only be done before last night’s lockout?
I’m happy, went from Sheed, Bruhn and Xerri to JHF, Pedlar and English. If I didn’t do that, I would be playing in traffic right now.
I sure hope one of the traders had him in after likely being the reasons alot of the community ended up getting him, if they all dodged him, probably not the best advice to get so excited about him in the podcast, knowing goldy is on 295 games aswell.
The best laid plans of mice and men…
Yep, I fell for the Xerri bait as well.
I’ll trade down Macrae to Treloar, and Cogs to Rozee to allow enough cash to fix problem for next week.
I don’t think it’s the end of business- there will be more of the ‘better’ players returning worse than 26 during the season.
And he was looking like a stud too, on 26 in the first 20 minutes.
I feel absolutely gutted. Ruined my day, and over DT already.
Heading out to the back shed once I have the strength to drag myself there…
Imagine having Stewie and Xerri…..
Good Luck in 2024
It’s just brutal how all the hard work can be undone before the season really even kicks off.
I suppose one way to look at it though is, it’s only +-50 points short of a pass mark for Xerri, which isn’t huge. Could have lost more than that by having Sheezel or Ginbey on the pine, which I was tossing up yesterday.
Just hope Rozee doesn’t pop off in this 2nd half, that would really rub salt into the wound.
Imagine trying to sugar coat it, while Witts is 100+ up on his replacement. The fact that Xerri was on 26 with a good 5-10 left in the first, and looking Xerri ripe, just makes it so bittersweet.
FMDT
Worse things are yet to happen this year- just depends if you are lucky enough to miss them. Only round one.
This is like a triple whammy. I thought I was being clever in bringing in Xerri for English so I could get rid of JHF and bring in Moore. I also got rid of Phillips because he was going to cop a sub score. Now if I hold onto Moore, I will not be able to offload Xerri after the round, so I am going to have to go back to JHF so I can afford to fix up my ruck prior to round 2. Looks like I will be playing catch up for the rest of the season. FMDT!
Looking forward to the Washup.
And with concussion protocols in place, you might find now that your best scorer one week gets a hit to the head the next week, scores nothing, and is out for the following week as well. It’s a wonderful world.
Pity a thought for me – had Ziebell in my side all preseason – but he went out with the Yeo-out news as part of a flow-on restructure.
Damn Yeo :(
commiserations to those hit hard but hey..
most of you had Yeo and he coulda gone down
3 days later,
Yeo missing games over the course of the season isn’t a problem. We don’t need him to be durable. Only need him for 6-10 rounds, and he’s put up premium scores and made 2-300k.
missed all the carnage…………..except Liam Jones….at least not a complete restructure. Have $159k left in warnchest. went light on in the back line so far paid off till Jones
A shout out to the guy who wanted me to pick Liam Jones in my team, which I didn’t:
He scored 7, pal, 7 (Seven) (vii).
I know realise he was concussed- I didn’t watch the game, but still a poor pick.
Tom Green off injured now too.
Over this. Done.
was Green injured, think he ran out the game.
more importantly, Laird……………he did play, right?
He played the full 4 quarters. Didn’t cop much of a tag either.