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The Thursday Scramble

The Thursday Scramble: Round 9

When do we trade in and out and should we side swap premos? All that and more. Let’s Scramble

Not quite as many big scores in round 8 but we still managed to get through it ok and despite a bit of a scare with Max Gawn going in for some scans on his knee we seem to have come out of it largely unscathed. But what the round did is ask plenty of questions and it didn’t provide too many answers for us. So let’s have a look at a few of the bigger issues as well as having a look at a few of your questions. Let’s Scramble!

Is there ever a good time to select or trade a player?

We all want to trade our rookies when they reach their peak and we want to trade in the fallen premiums when they reach the bottom of their price cycle. But we all know that this isn’t always going to happen. So let’s have a chat about what we should do in that situation and hopefully it will give you a bit of help as we head to the byes and we start to (hopefully) finish off our upgrades to our teams.

The key to selecting players to trade out isn’t always trying to get the exact week they will peak. That is often not possible. When looking at who to trade out obviously their BE vs what they can score is important but also things to consider include what sort of a run do they have coming up? Are they going to be playing against teams that are easy to score against or difficult.  Also look at whether their current role will change when a player returns to the side from a longer term injury. Someone may be having a great run and rising in price very quickly but they may be playing ‘out of position’ in the midfield whilst someone else is out, so as soon as that other player is named to come back you may want to drop your rookie.

I also look at whether or not I need the extra cash that that player is worth to upgrade someone else. So I may have a rookie that is up to $400k but still has a bit more to make and another that is maxed out at $350k. However, to do the upgrade I need I may need that extra $50k. So I would then trade out the more expensive guy because the points that I will net on field from doing that far outweigh what I would have if I had to settle for someone else in my upgrade that is a bit cheaper.  I haven’t really worded that well but I hope you understand what I mean. I am looking at the longer term gain of points over the possibility that player A might make another $25k later on down the track.  The other thing to consider here is also that as the player gets closer to their peak value they also get there a lot slower than they did when they started rising in value so you may have to wait 4 weeks for those last few dollars.

On the other side of the coin, when we are looking at bringing a player in we may not always wait til they hit their rock bottom price (but we do want to get close). If they are scoring well you don’t want to keep a guy scoring 60s when the bloke you want is likely to get a 100 just because player B is likely to drop another $5k because they had a BE of 125. Remember this game is all about points on field. If you have no other trades you have to make or if you really need that scoring then just go for it and grab them.  Having said that if someone has a BE of 200 and they are averaging about 100 you should definitely wait a little there. Trying to get the very bottom isn’t always possible either. If you wait a week then you may have a couple of injuries you need to fix in that following week which then locks you out of your target.  If I can afford my target and they are maybe one or two games from their absolute bottom I will sometimes pull the trigger because you never know what cards the fantasy gods will deal you next week.

When trading in you need to factor in their bye (if you are doing it before the byes of course) and also any positional factors such as DPP status. Sometimes you will need to make a call and the deciding factor may not be their scores as they are very close.

#AskDunny

I can certainly see why you would have lost patience with Butters.  As an owner too (and a supporter) it is hard to watch him not scoring. I am still going to hold him though, at least to the byes, as I still have rookies to move off field and he could catch fire at any stage. But if you are keen to move him on, then I think that you have better options than Darcy Cameron. He has had two good games since Grundy has been missing but I just don’t know whether it can continue. When I look at his scoring in the past it has been erratic with the high scores being the odd ones out. With Grundy out he should be viable but I really think you can find a better option. I guess if you go for Cameron, just beware he could drop a 50 on you just as easily as a 100.

Just to follow on from above I would take Parker and Duncan every day over Cameron just because they have scored well consistently in the past and we just haven’t seen that from Cameron. And given a choice I take Parker first mainly due to Duncan’s injury prone body concerns.

 

I like his run coming up and he should score well but we have seen him do this before. There is no doubt that he has had some good games but 5 of his 8 so far have been 90 or less so I think he is more in the Trap territory than the Real Deal.  I don’t think I would pick him up unless you think he will go huge in the next two weeks and then look to trade him out after R12 and pick someone up that has had their bye.

I don’t mind your thinking but the issue I have is that you may not have many green dots at the bye and really what you want to be doing is upgrades at the byes and not side swapping rookies. Side swapping rookies is something we should all try and avoid as much as possible but if you are going to do it I would probably do it now as you can pick someone up that might play over the coming 3 rounds and make you some money so that when you do trade them out at their bye you get some cash from them rather than a Mead who may not play between now and then and you aren’t getting any additional cash.

 

A couple here on the same topic so I will answer them together….  My golden rule here is that I only trade out an under performing premo if I have nothing else to do and I don’t have rookies on field that are struggling to score. Because the rookie probably won’t score too much more than a 50-60 but your under performing premo that had 60 last week could come out and score a 120 this week. Having said all that if you are going to trade them out then the byes are really the only reason I would do it. But really it is a last resort and I would do everything I could before breaking that rule.

Things to Remember

  • Look ahead to the fixture if you are going to do some loopholing and have plans ready, it is easy to stuff yourself up.
  • There are just 3 games left before the byes.
  • Look to move your Rookies before your Premos if you can.

Things are getting harder but it just means we need to be a little smarter. Have plans that see you right through to the byes. Plan who you want to move out and who you may want to bring in. It won’t be exactly what you do but it gives you some direction and helps get you to the byes in good shape.  Enjoy the weekend and see you all again next Thursday.

A passionate Port Adelaide Fan who simply loves footy! That is how I would describe myself. Catch my weekly article "The Thursday Scramble" with all the last minute things to think about for the weekend Follow: @pkd73.

53 Comments

53 Comments

  1. Greg

    May 12, 2022 at 7:17 am

    Who goes first to any MID premo?

    NOD or Bowey?

    • Bubble Boy

      May 12, 2022 at 2:53 pm

      NOD out with injury

  2. Darce

    May 12, 2022 at 9:13 am

    How much $$ is Oliver likely to go up this week?

    • Greg

      May 12, 2022 at 10:17 am

      His BE is 97 so maybe like $20K, I don’t really know how much the price goes up if he gets like 120+

  3. BestowedMisery

    May 12, 2022 at 11:09 am

    On ya Dunny, words of wisdom.
    2 trades to myself this week after a month of having to move on English, Xerri, Hayes and then Hewett last week.
    I’ll use them wisely.

  4. Petez

    May 12, 2022 at 11:24 am

    Oliver is good to go.
    These next 2 weeks will be big and he carries me through the bye. Should be good.
    Clark is a must have as I don’t fancy paying another 60-80k or so extra next week and he will generate some serious $$.
    Im going to pass on Cameron.

    Im losing patience with Hewett and his bye is just around the corner. So if he’s out. He’s going to Oliver. Otherwise it’s brodie to Oliver.
    Cutting mead to Clark. Flick 1 piece of dead wieght lol.

  5. Frustrated

    May 12, 2022 at 11:42 am

    My Team:

    Def: Houston, Whitfield, Hewett, Sicily, Rich, N. Daicos (O’Driscoll, Stein)

    Mid: Macrae, Neale, Oliver, Mitchell, M. Crouch, Rowell, Hobbs, McComb (Stephens, Caroll)

    Ruc: Gawn, Witts (Preuss)

    Fwd: Treloar, Coniglio, Brodie, Butters, N. Martin, Rachele (Durdin, Windhager)

    Utl: S. Hayes

    I’m covering Hewett with NOD until he returns. For the first trade I’m looking to get Clark for cash gen.

    Don’t know what to do for 2nd trade. Should I upgrade one of the mids to say Petracca or should I get rid of Rachele to either Dunks, Parker, Duncan or D Cameron???

    • Frustrated

      May 12, 2022 at 11:43 am

      That’s Rowell to Clark for 1st trade

      • BestowedMisery

        May 12, 2022 at 12:10 pm

        Preuss is a lot of score wasted on the bench.

      • Straight Shooter

        May 12, 2022 at 12:26 pm

        Get Dunks

      • BestowedMisery

        May 12, 2022 at 12:31 pm

        Don’t know how much $ you have..

        Maybe swap utility Hayes as a R3 with either Preuss or Witts, then trade them to Clark or someone else, Duncan?
        If a Clark, upgrade a red dot if you can first before Rowell.. even Rachele before Rowell.
        Don’t know what you’re saying regarding Hewett.

  6. Mike

    May 12, 2022 at 12:04 pm

    Best player between 700-800 to get?
    Eg. Duncan, Guthrie, Parker, Zorko, Heeney, Treloar

  7. jjbkeeper

    May 12, 2022 at 12:38 pm

    Who out first:
    – Durdin (low scores BUT solid position in team)
    – JHF (will start losing money BUT decent(ish) scores)
    – Windhager (might keep being medi-sub and lose money BUT can’t buy much)

  8. Bob

    May 12, 2022 at 12:42 pm

    Always had other injury concerns so I still got them.

    But if hewett is out again should i go:

    English to Oliver
    &
    Hewett to Angus Brayshaw?

  9. Bob O

    May 12, 2022 at 2:34 pm

    Who goes first:
    Butters or Blakey.
    I’m tempted to hold Butters for another week considering he’s playing the Roos.

  10. Jakob Skrnjug

    May 12, 2022 at 2:52 pm

    Vlastuin a genuine top 6 DEF option?

    • John1

      May 12, 2022 at 5:59 pm

      Unsure what happens now with short playing fully on half back now too, hes been a midfielder the last couple weeks. May affect vlastuin a bit. Id say hes a safe 90 avg but top 6 or even top 10 not sure yet

  11. Ray

    May 12, 2022 at 3:16 pm

    What now for the fantasy-relevant GWS players with the news Cameron is leaving? I was considering trading Cogs to Darcy Cameron but is the new coach likely to continue to move the magnets around or have players actually playing in their better positions?

    • JungleMuffin

      May 12, 2022 at 3:52 pm

      Dunny literally covered it in the article about sideways trading premiums.

      Progress your team first.

  12. JungleMuffin

    May 12, 2022 at 3:50 pm

    NOD out, and the carnage begins.

    • pendles4brownlow

      May 12, 2022 at 4:19 pm

      What fun would Fantasy be without a bit of carnage.

      I just Hope Hewett is back, in which case I will just trust Paddy to replace NOD on field. Otherwise, I have to amend my round 12 prep trades

      • JungleMuffin

        May 12, 2022 at 4:34 pm

        Hewlett supposed to be unlikely.

        And how have you still got Paddy? He maxed out like round 4-5?

        • pendles4brownlow

          May 12, 2022 at 5:09 pm

          Keeping Paddy was not in my plan. However, other priorities seem to take over each week, and his Def/Fwd status has helped me on a few occasions. Last week, I had to put him on field, so he has not been too bad. Last week, I decided that bye prep was a priority; he has a round 13 bye and is playing, so I will get rid of him then. Unfortunately, I am a bit too round-12 bye reliant, but I have time to fix it, so that is my priority this week. Besides, with a BE of 26, even Paddy can make that, and he’s only playing Essendon this week, so he may be good for 60-70, and at least he is not bleeding cash like Soft-as and others.

          • Dulcify

            May 12, 2022 at 5:40 pm

            I agree Pendles. I too have been forced into keeping Paddy and he is doing okay. Very achievable break even, still making money and easily outscored Dunkley and several others last week. Having Gibcus, NOD and JHF means I have to continue to hold Paddy.
            Would love to see Muffins team.

            • JungleMuffin

              May 12, 2022 at 5:54 pm

              You want to see my team Dulcify?

              Ok, Here you go:

              Def: Whitfield, Crisp, Sicily, Lloyd, Short, Chapman (NOD, SDK)
              Mid: Steele, Neale, Maccrae, Touk, Cripps, Tarranto, Clark, Hobbs (Ward, Carroll)
              Ruck: Preuss, ROB (Hayes)
              Fwd: Dunkley, Heeney, Cogs, de Goey, Brodie, Martin (Meade, Undecided rookie)
              Ute: Erasmus

              Is my team decent enough for you?

              • The Octopus

                May 12, 2022 at 5:57 pm

                Wow. Just wow, one of the best teams I’ve seen on this site.

                • JungleMuffin

                  May 12, 2022 at 6:12 pm

                  Thanks Doc Oc.

                  Currently stalling for time to see which of Chappy/Brodie/Martin ruins their cash gen first so I can give them the boot. It’s some proper Survivor/Hunger Games type sh1t between those 3 over the next week or two.

                  Have 1 more double downgrade to do before r12, where I should do 2 up 1 down before lockout. Will leave me with Clark, plus one of Brodie/Martin/Chappy/Hobbs/Erasmus, the rest being premiums (besides possibly Cogs and ROB who can be upgraded over the byes if it suits).

              • Dulcify

                May 12, 2022 at 6:10 pm

                That is a decent team, better than mine, well done Muffin.

                • JungleMuffin

                  May 12, 2022 at 6:23 pm

                  Cheers mate.

                  Still ranked out in the Magoos though 😅

    • Bill

      May 12, 2022 at 4:38 pm

      Why is he out?
      That stuffs me.

      • Bill

        May 12, 2022 at 4:40 pm

        I guess I’ll have to trade Hewett, unless he recovers in time.

        • BestowedMisery

          May 12, 2022 at 5:21 pm

          I mucked up and held Hewett for the first week.
          Once I’d thought more about his corked calf, my brain went..
          Remember that early draft pick cocaine addict @ Gold Coast that moved to Freo with a bung calf?
          Yeah, a spud calf is bad karma.

      • JungleMuffin

        May 12, 2022 at 5:58 pm

        Hot spot, 6 weeks or something.

        I was hoping for 1 more week of cash gen, but no big deal, had to double downgrade next week anyway as was just short of a legit premium.

        • Bill

          May 12, 2022 at 8:15 pm

          It’s a bummer.

  13. PowerAde

    May 12, 2022 at 5:14 pm

    if anyone knows anyone with a forklift licence looking for work in perth give me a yell.

    also looking for a defence rook that will get a game.

    • true beavers

      May 12, 2022 at 6:42 pm

      Thompson for the Suns at 200k – will never score much but will play every game I hope and be set and forget bench cover

      • pendles4brownlow

        May 12, 2022 at 6:46 pm

        But does he have a forklift license?

        • true beavers

          May 12, 2022 at 6:53 pm

          of course he does, how can you doubt him?

  14. JungleMuffin

    May 12, 2022 at 6:39 pm

    Rookie Carnage this week lads. Loads of big name rookies out. Something like 9+ at a quick glance.

    • Phteven

      May 12, 2022 at 6:44 pm

      I’ve gone from 2 red dots last to 6 this week! Fortunately mainly on the bench. Will need to field Rachele this week instead of trading him.

      • pendles4brownlow

        May 12, 2022 at 6:52 pm

        5 red dots. 6 if Hewett misses

  15. pendles4brownlow

    May 12, 2022 at 6:48 pm

    Hewett named on the bench. Can we trust them? If I trust them, and don’t trade Hewett, I won’t have cover.

    • Bill

      May 12, 2022 at 7:08 pm

      When do the final Sunday teams land?

      • pendles4brownlow

        May 12, 2022 at 7:12 pm

        Should be tomorrow arv. I have time to make the change, but I won’t be happy

        • Bill

          May 12, 2022 at 8:14 pm

          I don’t know if it’s worthwhile trading NOD for one of those Richmond or Bulldogs basement price rookies, as back up for Hewett?

          Not sure about their JS, or scoring potential; especially their JS.

  16. pendles4brownlow

    May 12, 2022 at 7:11 pm

    Should be tomorrow arv

  17. pendles4brownlow

    May 12, 2022 at 7:20 pm

    ROB omitted for Fogarty. Fogarty BE 64 – will he be the next Cameron? I think they have put him into the ruck because his name is Darcy. That’s the problem with the Pies; too many Darcys – split the duties between Cameron and Moore.

  18. Justin Stitchup

    May 12, 2022 at 9:22 pm

    Who to Trade Out this week?
    JHF or Durdin?
    Thanks dudes

    • Martin

      May 12, 2022 at 10:12 pm

      Depends on who you are bringing in for them, and if they are on field. If Durdin is on field, I would be trading him first. If Durdin is on the bench, I would be trading JHF.

      • Justin Stitchup

        May 12, 2022 at 10:17 pm

        Thanks Martin. Durdin goes

  19. Martin

    May 12, 2022 at 10:14 pm

    Def: Whitfield, Hewett, Rich, Sic, NDaicos, NOD (McCartin, SDK)
    Mid: Steele, Smith, Neale, Miller, Macrae, Cripps, Green, McComb (Hobbs, MacDonald)
    Ruck: Gawn, Preuss (Dixon)
    Forward: Dunks, Cogs, Butters, Brodie, Martin, Coleman (Windhager, Durdin)
    Utl: Mead
    Cash: 67k
    Even with NOD out, I am thinking this week:
    Green > Oliver
    MacDonald > Clark
    Is that ok, or should NOD be gone (options are limited who I can get to)?

    • Justin Stitchup

      May 12, 2022 at 10:20 pm

      Good trades IMO. Oliver C for me

  20. The Real Slim

    May 12, 2022 at 10:25 pm

    Trades looking like either

    JHF>>Cripps
    Ward>>Clark
    With 250k left over

    Or

    JHF>>Oliver
    Ward>>Clark

    With 190k Left over

    Probs going to bring in who ever I don’t pick up next week by getting rid of NOD and butters, but which one is better for this week

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