The Thursday Scramble: Round 4

Always an interesting time in Fantasy Footy.  We have just enough information to be dangerous, prices are starting to change in DT and Supercoach and we are only a couple of rounds away from positional changes.  It would be fair to say, It is All Happening!  Add to that players underperforming and Covid protocols and you have an absolute melting pot of madness!  Let’s Scramble!!

Rookie Roulette

How have you been going with your rookies? It is always a bit tricky this time of year to get the right rookies on the ground. All we have to go on is what they have been doing in the first few weeks of the season. Many of us would have had Dylan Stephens on the field after what he had done in recent weeks but don’t despair you wouldn’t have been the only one that did that. I certainly did.  The other tricky part at the moment is that we are all so focused on cash generation and we didn’t get the WC/Freo teams until Sat night last week. This made it near on impossible to do any loop holing off of the bench.  So we had to make a decision and unfortunately for a lot of us it didn’t pay off.

Now that we have three weeks of data on these rookies we can now use that to make as informed a decision as we can but we will strike these issues all the way through.  Just look at the data, look at what the opposition have been giving up in points and then make a call.  If you can loop off of the bench I would highly recommend doing it but don’t create a zero bench player just to do that as cash generation is still king.

Fixture Management

Check the fixture, work out your trades, then check the fixture again!  I know of a number of people that got caught out on Saturday night by the fixture.  Many people had planned to bring in Cripps in their midfield. But we had to be careful because by the time Sat night was over we had seen North, Brisbane and Collingwood play already so this meant that Berry, Daicos and JHF were both locked in and if you already had Stephens on the ground you would have really struggled as to who to take off to allow Cripps to get on.

When planning your trades make sure you are well aware of what the fixture is doing so that you can do these moves. Sometimes, like this week, it will mean that you have to make these moves a day earlier than you want to just to get your structure right and the correct players on field.

I will admit I nearly got caught out and had to pull over on the side of the road to do my trades on the way home from being out all day when I realised that Bris v North was about to start in about 10 mins.  Very glad I remembered!

#AskDunny

I put it out there for a few questions so I will answer a few here for you.  I usually prefer the strategy type questions as there are plenty of podcasts and other resources that look at player v player but I will still answer a few of them here too.  Thanks for those that contributed.

 

Gawn or Grundy to Preuss?

— John (@SinceIGotGAWN) April 6, 2022

I spoke a little about this last week (I think it was last week) and whilst I will be sticking with Gawn and Grundy as I believe that over the season they will still be the best two rucks in the comp in terms of average and overall points I can still see why people are doing this. If that cash you will generate helps you get an extra premium on the field over and above what you have now then it is a trade worth making. But just keep in the back of your mind that should you want to get whichever of them that you are trading out back in your side you may need to find some serious dollars at some point (hopefully as that means they haven’t dropped too much). Doing this can put you one trade and premium behind everyone else who hasn’t made trades in their ruck.

If I had to pick one to trade out, I think at this stage I would trade out Gawn just because he does have Jackson in that team whereas Grundy doesn’t really have any strong competition.

 

 

Already done my first trade which is Hayes to Preuss. Could I cut Macrae for Tim Taranto. Averaging 119.3 and going up in price.

— Chris (@Chris44272242) April 6, 2022

I don’t mind the Hayes to Preuss trade at all.  I would prefer to do this than trade out Max or Brodie.  Reason being is that Hayes is now third string ruck/tall option at the Saints with Marshall and Ryder now both in the side. We know that Paddy won’t play all season but when he does, Hayes drops down the pecking order.

Cutting Macrae is a big call. His average is sitting just under 100 and is mainly the result of one game. He does have a massive break even but just remember that you will probably want to get him back at some stage.

Now, many of us didn’t start with Taranto as we were really worried about that time he would spend forward without Toby Greene in the side. But we have seen a pair of 120+ scores from him playing this role and he is looking really good.  If you want to play the Break Even game then I think this is an ok move to make. The only thing I will say is that this game can bite you on occasion and we generally say don’t trade out your premiums but sometimes you need to be aggressive with your trades. Would I make this move? No, but hey, I haven’t got a hat either!

Backmen 400-600k range

— Sam Fuss (@samFuss1) April 6, 2022

Big range there and lots of players.  Really I wouldn’t be looking at too many of these guys as I would prefer to either pick up a rookie or someone with a lot of value or a premium that I was going to keep for the rest of the season.  If you forced me to pick… here are some thougths on a few of them.

Nick Blakey – The Lizard is one that I think you should look at.  $584k and has had a couple of price rises as he is averaging 90 and has been very solid. With these scores in his cycle he should rise further in value and allow you to trade him to a premium. He has a good role and is having a good start to the year.

Will Day – One game for the season so far and it was a 91. He has had only one price movement and many were of the opinion that he would have a breakout year. I would consider taking a risk on him if you really need someone to fit in this price range.

Zac Williams – He is on my never again list after what he did to me last year but he has had two good games in rounds 2 and 3, but round 1 was a shocker.  I just couldn’t recommend him to anyone.

Nick Haynes – Like Williams he has had one poor game and one good game (he missed round 1). He is another I would have recommended early in the season but that variation in scoring is a big concern.

Jacob Weitering – He has been talked about quite a bit of late but he hasn’t posted anything over 64 in his three games. With Carlton doing well the ball isn’t down his end as much this year. Keep an eye on him but not for now.

Things to Remember

• Rookies will take a little while to mature so you don’t have to move them all on just yet. But if you need to trade one out before your target player rises in value then go ahead.
• Watch the Fixture. The Saturday day game is a little later this week to accommodate the AFLW Grand Final.
• Always look for the Value in your trades, not just the guy that had a big score last week, those points are gone.

Have a great weekend everyone and enjoy the footy. Hopefully your Fantasy Team can have a big score (How big have the scores been this year! We used to be happy with a 2000 this early in the season, now it is a base score!).  Catch you all next week.