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Deck of Dream Team

Reilly O’Brien – Deck of DT 2022

Unique and potentially 10-15pts under-priced… hear Calvin out.

Name: Reilly O’Brien
Team: Adelaide
Position: RUC
Price: $723,000
Bye round: 13
2021 average: 86.2
2021 games played: 20
Predicted average: 98
Draft range: Third best Ruck

Click here for 2022 Fantasy prices.

Why should I pick him?

Alright, there are plenty of reasons why you should be picking ROB and to make it easier to understand, let’s put them under nice little headings.

Under-Priced
If you are like me and believe that ROB is capable of average 95+, then yes, he is under-priced by about $70,000. As you know, ROB has done this before and prior to his last season where he averaged 86.2, he did average 108* and 96. This is where he is at. His average is only so low because of the way he started 2021 when he stunk and averaged 78 in his first ten games thanks to his start of the year that saw him score 51 and 48 in his first two games.

Save $170,000
Grundy is currently in 35% of teams. For $170k less, this could be ROB. Grundy is being paired with the likes of Preuss and Witts, which is fine… but ROB could be your premium in this scenario at a fraction of the price. So sit ROB next to the value picks and see where you can spend that extra $170k. Instead of owning Jaeger O’Meara… you now have Jack Macrae or Tom Mitchell.

Unique
Hold your hat… ROB is in only 3% of Fantasy teams. There is meat on the bone and he is capable of averaging mid-90’s to 100 and he’s unique as.

Form in Last 10
As I said above, ROB struggled early last year and averaged 78 in his first ten games, but 95 in the remaining ten. This is one of the main categories we look at when selecting our players for the next season. Compare this Grundy… he averaged 98 in his last ten games and only 92 in his last six. ROB’s numbers are equal to or even better than the man who sits in 35% of current teams.

He Has No Friends
Unlike other rucks in the game, ROB has no friends. What I mean by that is… he rucks solo. Occasionally Thilthorpe pinch hits in the middle, but very rarely. Thilthorpe averaged 7% of CBAs for the Crows last year and is much better suited up forward. Gawn will battle with Jackson, as Preuss will battle with Briggs and Flynn… however, ROB won’t battle with anyone!

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Burnt You Last Year
If you owned ROB last year then you don’t want him again. He was inconsistent and gave his coaches headaches. He had many scores under 60, which included scores of 51, 48, 54 and 59. Owning a guy like this, scoring like that… is torture.

Value Else Where
If they are fit and ready to go… you can save $151k by owning Witts instead, and $356k with Preuss. I’m not sure if you can run the gauntlet with both but whoever shows the most this pre-season should be getting a gig in your team.

Tough Start
As you can see from my little graphic (based off 2021 scores against), ROB has a tough start to the 2021 season meeting Sean Darcy, Brodie Grundy and Scott Lycett in the first three rounds. For a guy who started the season so slow last year, this is not ideal. Even in 2020 when he averaged 108*, he started that season with 63. Once again… Not ideal.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING
I have ROB ranked as the third best ruckman in the game, behind Grundy and Gawn. Lots of people will find that hard to believe, but I reckon in 2022 he has the measure of Sean Darcy and Rowan Marshall. ROB has averaged 108 and 95 before last season. He is a 95-100 guy, just like he was in his last ten games of the year.

The 3% ownership is what shocks me. People are hot on the likes of Lachie Neale who is basically the same “under-priced” option with the same meat on the bone. Neale should average 105-100 (10-15pt upside), which makes him the same “bargain” as ROB but just in a different position.

ROB is in my current squad. At this stage, he flips in and out of my team along with Grundy and Preuss.

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20 Comments

20 Comments

  1. constantgin

    February 6, 2022 at 7:26 am

    I go back and forth between ROB and Darcy with Grundy at R1. This might be finally the year i sit and forget rucks.

  2. Mattster

    February 6, 2022 at 8:26 am

    Might be worth mentioning the acquisition of Darren Burgess to the crows. ROB’s running game is what stood out in his rookie year however last year he looked slow and out of the game. If his fitness is at peak could see his strong running game back which will equate to more possessions around the ground (10-15 points)

  3. Squid

    February 6, 2022 at 9:49 am

    Why shouldn’t I pick him? Regularly has airies when trying to kick, that’s points you’re burning bloke!.

    95-100 just isn’t good enough for a premo ruck, unless things change it’s Gawn Grundy and then daylight. With 8 slots to 2 the Neale comparison is apples and oranges as any mid going at 105 is around the mark as a top 8 keeper, A ruck at 95 is losing 10-15 points a week easy to Grawdy.

    Also he’s not going to make enough money to justify the likely point deficit and extra trade needed to turn him into one of the big dogs whereas if Preuss gets going, even at 75-80ave he will end up one of the best cash cows for the year.

    But yeah, mainly I just can’t have such a giant unco on my team.

    • Trevor

      February 6, 2022 at 12:06 pm

      Matt from the weekend wash up round 7 last year stated it was like watching a new born giraffe trying to find its feet

  4. Euman

    February 6, 2022 at 9:52 am

    I had Witts, but his injury scares me so easy for him to go down and will Chol take some of his spotlight. Had Preuss in my team for 5 minutes again cant do it, with injuries and possibility of a rest or shared duties hes a 70-80 scorer for mine and i am backing ROB in, and yes he burnt me last year, he gets one more chance.

  5. ShredderPigs

    February 6, 2022 at 12:52 pm

    Squid, very valid points mate. How many rookies are you starting in field?

    • Squid

      February 6, 2022 at 2:17 pm

      I’ll most likely have something resembling a mix of 5-7 rookies, 4-5 mid pricers & 12-13 keepers, it all depends on who’s available come round one.

      • ShredderPigs

        February 6, 2022 at 2:30 pm

        Seems to be the mark. I reckon 6 rookies seems viable… atm. Cheers mate

      • Chris Mainny

        February 6, 2022 at 2:45 pm

        The 10 each week benifit from gawn/grundy will be lost in the amount of rookies youre playing. The traders said in their podcast that realistically u should be playing 3 to 4 rookies. Im playing 4. Im not saying go ROB but i think their are other viable options better than grundy/gawn that enable you to upgrade to some real decent mid pricers that are capable of scoring much more than 10 over a rookie.

        • Squid

          February 6, 2022 at 10:59 pm

          I’m not going Grundy/Gawn, I’m saying they’re easily the 2 best rucks, ROB is not a keeper and Preuss is, in my opinion, a way better stepping stone, he could make a tonne of cash.

          If that’s what the traders said that’s wonderful, maybe i will just wait for their team reveals, copy one of them and then I can have a wicked sick trader made team and be super awesome!

          Good luck with your midprice madness strategy, I might just do my thing.

  6. Triple X

    February 6, 2022 at 1:57 pm

    Thoughts on Cumming for B3 average 86 last year can he go 90+ this year or not

  7. Mighty Puds

    February 6, 2022 at 4:22 pm

    My thoughts on the rucks:

    Witts is huge value if he can return to being the safe 90 guy he had been prior to his ACL injury. Should he play R1 he’d be coming back sooner than the usual 12-month recovery time which makes me nervous he may not be fully recovered. In that scenario you’d imagine Chol does more pinch-hitting to help him until he’s fit enough. But if he looks good in preseason…

    Preuss is obviously the far more risky option but is beyond cheap for a starting ruck. The recent interview with him had him say he feels fully fit and really wants that number one ruck/round 1 spot. Maybe it’s dumb but if he’s named with Flynn wouldn’t be completely off picking him providing he looks good in preseason and doesn’t just sit forward 90% of the game. He’s only played 18 games so there’s not much known about his scoring capacity but if he looks set in the team and fully fit he’s arguably too much value to pass up.

    Summing it up, currently have Grundy and Preuss but seriously toying with the idea of Grundy and ROB (even though I owned ROB last season and he annoyed me to no end). Obviously ROB is far more set in his side than Preuss and way less injury prone but doesn’t have the upside (though having ROB the whole year at R2 if he’s going at 95-105 isn’t the worst idea). Guess it depends on preseason and what the eye-test and the players look like but personally it’s between ROB and Preuss for R2 currently.

  8. 22 guns

    February 7, 2022 at 5:37 pm

    FIX THE DRAFTS CALVIN PLEASE

    • Squid

      February 7, 2022 at 6:22 pm

      You know he has absolutely no say or power over over the functionality of the actual game right?

      None at all, probably barely any more than if you were to call up about getting it “fixed”.

      Whether trolling or for serious I have genuine concern for some of you guys on here, how do you function out in the real world?

  9. 22 guns

    February 7, 2022 at 6:50 pm

    function quite well actually unlike you who seems to be on this site all day everyday

  10. Squid

    February 7, 2022 at 7:03 pm

    Bored at work, love my fantasy footy, generally sort out my own problems.

  11. 22 guns

    February 7, 2022 at 7:19 pm

    being bored at work is a huge problem need to sort your “problem” out maybe try putting your big boy pants on

    • Squid

      February 7, 2022 at 8:50 pm

      Cheers, will look into it, bored of you now.

      Thanks For your many years of largely thankless work Warnie, appreciate it.

  12. Warnie

    February 7, 2022 at 7:40 pm

    22 guns… I replied to you on a previous post (see link below) and suggested what you can do.

    This is the thing that most coaches have had the issue with … not finalising teams. Be sure to check your comments and replies before chirping off… and as Squid has said, I can’t fix anything. If I could, I wouldn’t have a crap team each year. I offer plenty of info that I know – including this same fix on twitter to countless users.

    Rowan Marshall – Deck of DT 2022

  13. 22 guns

    February 7, 2022 at 7:45 pm

    thanks warnie will look into it chirp chirp

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