Weekend Forecast – Round 23

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Well, ladies and gentleman, we are here! Round 23 and fantasy Grand Final weekend is here, and hopefully you made it into your Grand Finals. If you’re like me and didn’t, try and enjoy the last round of the season before we head into the AFL Finals. Personally, my year has been really bad, but some fun trades will hopefully make the last round a more enjoyable one.

Now, let’s get into the Weekend Forecast.

 

Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Western Bulldogs

IN

Roarke Smith

OUT

Riley Garcia (Omitted), Anthony Scott (Medi-Sub)

Port Adelaide

IN

Trent McKenzie, Steven Motlop

OUT

Tom Clurey (Omitted), Orazio Fantasia (Injured), Sam Mayes (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Marcus Bontempelli

The Bont has struggled the last few weeks, with no scores over 110 in his last 3, 75, 103 and 99. But I think that may change, even though it is a tougher game against Port Adelaide. It is a must win for both teams to stay in the top 4, and this is the sort of game the Bont loves and I think he will step up with a big score tonight. This could also be potentially a valuable 3 Brownlow votes come Brownlow night.

Dan Houston

Thats now back to back 85+ scores with 105 and 87 in his last 2. The Bulldogs do give up points to defenders with Hawks defenders cashing in last week. Lets hope Houston can get an 80+ and not be bad company on the end of season trip.

Richmond vs Hawthorn @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 19°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Richmond

IN

David Astbury, Jason Castagna, Mabior Chol, Riley Collier-Dawkins, Will Martyn, Kamdyn McIntosh, Ben Miller (Debut), Marlion Pickett, Jack Ross

OUT

Jake Aarts (Medi-Sub), Trent Cotchin (Injured), Shane Edwards (Injured), Ryan Garthwaite (Omitted), Kane Lambert (Injured), Rhyan Mansell (Injured), Toby Nankervis (Injured), Dion Prestia (Injured), Hugo Ralphsmith (Omitted), Maurice Rioli (Omitted)

Hawthorn

IN

Luke Breust, Jaeger O’Meara, James Worpel

OUT

Tyler Brockman (Managed), Connor Downie (Omitted), Josh Morris (Medi-Sub), Jai Newcombe (Managed)

 

Players to Watch

Tom Mitchell

I think Titch can potentially go another 150+ score this weekend. Played Richmond earlier in the year for a 111 but that was only his 2nd game back from shoulder surgery, and Richmond had a really strong team to start the year. The Tigers are really depleted due to injuries, especially their midfield, and I expect Titch to cash in big time. I also expect O’Meara, Wingard and Worpel to all be good this week.

 

Sydney vs Gold Coast @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Sydney

IN

Lance Franklin, Jake Lloyd, Callum Mills

OUT

Nick Blakey (Injured), Robbie Fox (Omitted), Josh Kennedy (Injured), Sam Reid (Omitted)

Gold Coast

IN

Alex Davies (Debut), Jarrod Harbrow

OUT

Jack Bowes (Injured), Jeremy Sharp (Omitted), Jacob Townsend (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Jake Lloyd

If you held him last week with all the carnage, I think it will pay off for you this weekend. A good matchup against the Suns and under the roof where Lloyd loves it. Averages 102.2 in his career 19 games at Marvel and I think he will go 100+.

Callum Mills

Make sure you keep watch until the bounce! But if Mills does play and is fit, I expect him to go big. Already scored 142 against them in round 6 this year, and another 120+ score could be on the cards if he plays/

Touk Miller

That 82 last week wasn’t great from Touk as it was his first score under 100 since round 10 (98) and first score under 98 since round 3 (88). Sydney is a tough matchup, but Touk also scored a 142 against them so I expect Touk to bounce back from last week, and maybe leaves us coaches with the thought of starting with him next year, even at his expensive price.

Brayden Fiorini

This guy is a ball magnet! Make that 7 tons in a row since being back in the team. Tough matchup but we have seen him score well against anyone, and I think he will make it 8 tons in a row.

 

Brisbane vs West Coast @ The Gabba

Weather Forecast

Around 26°C, sunny

Team Lineups

Brisbane

IN

 

OUT

Rhys Mathieson (Medi-Sub)

West Coast

IN

Harry Edwards, Jamaine Jones, Josh Rotham, Jake Waterman, Connor West

OUT

Tim Kelly (Injured), Josh Kennedy (Injured), Zac Langdon (Medi-Sub), Jeremy McGovern (Injured), Jack Petruccelle (Omitted), Brad Sheppard (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Daniel Rich

If you brought him in last week, you would have been a little disappointed with his 86 last week against Collingwood. He has another great matchup this week, so I expect he will be better than that this week, could be anything over 80.

Dayne Zorko

Even though there has been quarters of games where he has gone missing, Zorko always seems to find a way. Has gone 120+ in his last 3, and only 3 occasions this year has he gone under 95. Unreal consistency this year and another 100+ score should come this week.

Jarryd Lyons

Went big last week with a 139, and now has gone over 110 in his last 4, with 3 of those scores 136+. An average of 116.7 this year has been huge from Lyons, and just shows why the guys at the top this year have been so good because they pump out 120+ more often than anybody else as they both mark and tackle each week.

Luke Shuey

If you’re looking for a player around 600k, Luke Shuey could be a good option at 605k. Scored 112 last week, and we know when he is fit, he can score big. You only need him for 1 game so you could pull the trigger, and Kelly being out means he needs to step up if the Eagles have that glimmer of hope to make the Finals.

 

Geelong vs Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Geelong

IN

Tom Atkins, Gryan Miers, Gary Rohan

OUT

Zach Guthrie (Omitted), Shaun Higgins (Managed), Quinton Narkle (Medi-Sub), Esava Ratugolea (Omitted)

Melbourne

IN

Steven May, Tom McDonald, Jack Viney

OUT

Michael Hibberd (Omitted), James Jordon (Omitted), Jake Melksham (Omitted), Aaron VandenBerg (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Cam Guthrie

Another guy that has been ultra consistent this season is Cam Guthrie. He has only gone under 100 on 4 occasions, with only 1 of those under 80 (58). Now has 6 tons in a row, and has been especially good in his last 5, with only 1 score under 117.

Patrick Dangerfield

Similar with what I said with Bont, I expect Danger to step up in this top 4 clash with Melbourne, with the winner likely to win the minor premiership, and the loser to finish either 4, or outside the top 4. Was really good last week with a 121, but his last quarter was a monster, with 11 disposals, 3 marks, 1 tackle, 1 goal and 46 points.

Christian Petracca

I have mentioned this in the last couple of weeks, but Christian Petracca has been epic since the bye. Only 1 score below 100 (90), and all of his tons expect one have been over 110, and has shown his massive ceiling including scores of 136, 153, 126 and 136. really expensive at 853k and a tough matchup against Geelong, but I expect Petracca to step up big for the Dees with another big game and a big score. Also scored 136 against them earlier this year.

Clayton Oliver

Will he cop the O’Connor tag, or because Oliver completely beat the tag in round 4 against them, do Geelong just go head to head with Melbourne’s midfield with Petracca dominating as well? I am not sure, but I do expect Oliver to get some attention. Scored 128 with the tag against them earlier this year

 

Carlton vs GWS @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Carlton

IN

Patrick Cripps, Lachie Fogarty

OUT

Paddy Dow (Omitted), Marc Murphy (Managed), Sam Petrevski-Seton (Medi-Sub)

GWS

IN

Kieren Briggs, Toby Greene

OUT

Shane Mumford (Managed), James Peatling (Omitted), Jake Riccardi (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Sam Walsh

Will most likely cop either the De Boer or Ash tag this week. I expect De Boer to go to him after holding Walsh to highest lowest score of the year with a 55.

Tim Taranto

Played forward last week and looked really good, kicking 4 goals and scoring 91. With Toby Greene back in the team, we could see Taranto go back in the midfield, and I expect to see maybe a 50/50 split between midfield and forward. An easy matchup against Carlton means even if he is forward, he could kick a couple of goals and still score well. Had his best score of the season with a 145, but that was a pure midfield role.

Josh Kelly

Came back last week, new 8 year contract announced mid week, and went massive with a 141. Only scored 102 abasing them this year, but did injure his ankle early in the game and was hampered by it a little.

 

St Kilda vs Fremantle @ Blundstone Arena

Weather Forecast

Around 16°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

St Kilda

IN

Matthew Allison (Debut), Jack Bytel, Paul Hunter, Ben Long, Jack Lonie

OUT

Darragh Joyce (Injured), Max King (Injured)

Fremantle

IN

Blake Acres, Andrew Brayshaw, Ethan Hughes, Joel Western

OUT

Connor Blakely (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Jack Steele

Unfortunately won’t get to the million dollar mark, but he has been amazing this year with a 120.8 average, and could end with a bang with a good matchup against Fremantle. If he wants to be in the snout conversation, then this is the sort of game he needs to go 130+ and I think he will do it.

Andrew Brayshaw

If you want a real POD choice for your Grand Final, I think Andrew Brayshaw could be your guy. Only owned by 2.7%, coming back from suspension this week, he will be fired up to help Fremantle get a finals spot if things fall their way.

 

Essendon vs Collingwood @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 20°C, sunny

Team Lineups

Essendon

IN

Nik Cox, Brayden Ham, Andrew Phillips

OUT

 

Collingwood

IN

Jeremy Howe, Reef McInnes (Debut), Jay Rantall, Anton Tohill, Tom Wilson

OUT

Brody Mihocek (Suspension), Trey Ruscoe (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Zach Merrett

Didn’t have a great game last week. Still had 31 disposals, but 19 of them were handballs, and he only had 2 marks and 1 tackle. We want to see more than that. He should be big against Collingwood this week, having already scored 125 on them in round 6.

Darcy Parish

I think Darcy Parish is probably the best midfield pick under 800k this week. Great matchup against Collingwood, shouldn’t be a tag, and had his highest score of the season, a 150 in round 6 against them.

 

Adelaide vs North Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval

Weather Forecast

Around 21°C, potential thunderstorms later in the day (70% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Adelaide

IN

Billy Frampton, Lachlan Gallant (Debut), James Rowe, Brodie Smith, Josh Worrell

OUT

Elliot Himmelberg (Injured), Jake Kelly (Injured)

North Melbourne

IN

Shaun Atley, Atu Bosenavulagi, Tom Campbell, Jared Polec, Phoenix Spicer (Debut)

OUT

Charlie Comben (Injured), Jack Ziebell (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Rory Laird

As I have mentioned many times, Lairdy is one of the most consistent players going around, and he has only gone below 100 on only 1 occasion since round 11. His last 3 scores have only been 104, 105 and 101, but they have been against tough opposition, and I think he can bounce back to 115+ this week against North Melbourne. Did cop the Turner tag after dominating the first half in round 4 against them, and only 90, but Turner has been playing defence so I don’t expect a tag this week.

Aaron Hall

I think Aaron Hall is going to go bananas in the final game of the season. Already scored 123 against them in round 4 with Ziebell in the team .No Jack Ziebell means he probably takes all of the kick ins. We saw Jack Ziebell score a 170 without Aaron Hall, but we haven’t seen Hall without Ziebell yet. I think a 150+ could be on the cards here is the Crows don’t put any attention into him.

Jy Simpkin

Scored a putrid 49 last week, but has been great besides that, with a lowest score of 96 since the bye. Good matchup with the Crows this week. Only scored 80 against them in round 4, but he should be better than that, and I think he will go over 100.

Jed Anderson

A real smoky pick if you don’t have a lot of money in the bank. Has worked his way back since his injury which saw him miss 14 games. Showed last year and in round 2 he can score, and loves a tackle. Good matchup against Adelaide this week, I think could be a good pick this week, and I probably would rather him over Shuey due to a better matchup, if you have the extra 26k.

 

My Trades

Walsh/Oliver -> Mitchell

Gaff/Taranto -> Steele

This is what I call fun trades! I want to complete the awesome 4 of Steele, Miller, Mitchell and Lyons so I will be doing that this week. At this stage, it is Walsh or Oliver out as they should both cop tags this week. Then my final trade will most likely be Gaff to Steele. I should have started the year with Steele over Gaff as many of you know by now, and this trade will final rectify that wrong (even though it has cost me 562 points and 252k!).

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast throughout the season. I really appreciate every single one of you that has read any of my articles throughout the season, and an extra thank you if you have tuned in to my live stream podcasts on my YouTube Channel.

If you have any questions regarding trades, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck in your Grand Finals and round 23, and I will see you all in 2022!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang