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Trent’s Take: League Grand Finals

For the last time this season, the coach of ‘aluniesheis’ helps you with some trade tips.

What an awesome and challenging fantasy year, and I have enjoyed every bit of it. And thanks for everyone who made comments and asked questions, I have greatly enjoyed the interaction with everyone.

The end is nigh for all our players and instead of going through every game, we’ll provide some straight down the line advice, some left field advice and lastly some speculative advice for the player who wants a weird POD for their final.

Best Trade in Options

The best trade in players with their match ups below 800 K are Lachie Neale and Darcy Parish (assuming everyone has Dangerfield and Marshall who wanted them). One week to go and match ups are king as are potential VC and C options. With the top 4 teams playing, it gives some of the lesser clubs a chance to play against teams which are leaking heavily, and the Collingwood midfield and the Eagles are certainly in this category (when the Eagles travel).

Lachie Neale was hampered all season but looked fit and firing against the spluttering Pies.  Lyons 139, Zorko 122, Neale 120, McCluggage 116 and Bailey 101 ran riot.  The Eagles conceded 117 to Serong and 97 to Mundy.  Neale is 691 K and is a bargain, and is a good VC option.

Darcy Parish won’t be tagged against Collingwood who continue to give up a truck load of midfield points. Parish has dropped to 731 K and he scored 111 against the failing Suns. He is a great captain option this week, especially if your opponent in your league final does not own Parish. This is also assuming Hewett goes to Miller.

Left-Field Options

I am sure most players will look at the opponent’s team they line up against in their league final, but just be careful not to leave your trades until Sunday unless you have identified the right player in advance. I know you might want to save a trade to throw a lucky player into the mix if you are behind, but don’t do that unless you’ve already identified the player.

Toby Greene, FWD at 564K.  Greene has nose dived in scoring the last 5 weeks (68.8) as compared to his 83.8 season average and he was suspended last week, so you can be assured that no-one has Greene. GWS play Carlton this week and his AVG against Carlton is 90 and 87 at Marvel. Everyone scored well against Carlton last week with a comparable player in Butters scoring 91.  The week before Sexton 98 and Ainsworth 94, and Carlton have issues against mid-sized forwards. Greene is a R23 type of match-up where you are throwing the dart at the dart board and hoping for a 5 goal 100 game.

Adelaide’s defence looked very ordinary last week and whilst Butts might do an okay job on Larkey they don’t have great options for mid-sized players.  Fritsch 111, Butters 90, and even Johannisen 78 three weeks back.  Apart from the ruck where Todd Goldstein could have a party against Strachan, others to consider would be Tarryn Thomas, Stephenson and even Zurhaar. The player with the highest ceiling would be Jaidyn Stephenson who is 631 K. Conversely, if you think North will cop a loss then Tom Lynch  (521 K) in his final game (99 last week)  may provide a downgrade option with one of your trades (for example Tim Kelly).

Speculative Picks for a League Final (below 500 K)

As mentioned above with Lynch, the other massive throw at the dart board would be Darcy Fogarty, a 368 K FWD. He scored 83 against the demons and moved well and you know when he marks the ball it is basically a 12-point play.  This is the type of play you do in order to facilitate a better trade with your other player, but a Bianco or similar priced player on your bench down to Fogarty at F8 would be stupid every week, with the exception (maybe) of this one. His 83 is 9 points above his next best this season and he generally averages in the 40’s. But last game at Adelaide against North gives him a chance to go 70-80 once again.

Did anyone see Tim O’Brien, of mark of the year fame, play against the Bulldogs in Tassie. He scored 102 in defence. He had 24 possessions and 10 marks, many of which were behind the ball intercepts.  He is a 469 K FWD and has been tried occasionally in the past as a defender (normally when his forward work doesn’t work), but this is now 4 games of reasonable defensive output with scores of 61, 64, 80 and 102. Like all the players I’ve listed in these sections you would never dream of trading them in normally, but this is for one week and therefore he is a solid chance. The only caveat would be making sure he is not playing on Riewoldt or Lynch and so you’d want Frost and Hartigan to be named and for O’Brien to play on the resting ruckmen. Other one game wonder selections would be Sholl, Bolton, D. Smith, S. Reid, J. Hogan, N. Larkey, and of course L. Franklin.

Upshot: The end of the season upshot is to take a chance to take stock in relation to five points:

  1. Look back over your preseason notes to look at the hits and misses and why. You might have a player who you identified, but maybe you were a year early. For example, Caleb Serong.
  2. Look over your trades for the year and see where it went wrong and why. For me, I went back to previous players I liked too quickly, and it didn’t work: Hunter, Adams, Sidebottom, Cripps, T. Kelly. That was my pattern this year and you might have a pattern.
  3. Make a list of players who have identifiable role changes that are not linked to injury in the club and who are scoring well as the year closes. No-one needs to be good at Fantasy to have Lachie Neale as a buy next year, but others might be Serong, Simpkin, Schoenberg, Bailey and A. Brayshaw (Frem).
  4. Make a list of players who lost a lot of money this year who you think will bounce back and make another list of players who lost money who you don’t think will bounce back. List 1 has many examples, but Duncan, Neale, Adams, Martin, Prestia, Fyfe, Cripps, Dunkley, J. Berry, Yeo and Rowell whilst for me list 2 has Hunter, T. Kelly, A. Brayshaw, Sidebottom.
  5. A list of players who if traded for opportunity I am interested in: Constable, Narkle, Billings, J. Clark, O’Halloran, and Seton.

Good luck everyone in your finals or end of year rank, it has been fun.

Co-captain of DT Talk since we started this thing in 2007. Best finish was 13th in 2009... that was a long time ago. Follow on Twitter: @WarnieDT

54 Comments

54 Comments

  1. Aby Benny

    August 17, 2021 at 7:12 pm

    parish over wines/zorko with his matchup?

  2. Aluniesheis

    August 17, 2021 at 7:21 pm

    Wines vc on Friday and Parish c

  3. Ashley

    August 17, 2021 at 7:51 pm

    Current side:
    D: Laird, Hall, Whitfield, Newman, Harmes, Bianco (Briggs, Peatling)
    M: Oliver, Merrett, Steele, Miller, Petracca, Lyons, Mitchell, Macrae (Durham, West)
    R: Gawn, Grundy (Reeves)
    F: Zorko, Kelly, Dangerfield, Hunter, Marshall, Bramble (Madden, Honey)
    U: Williams
    Cash: 302k

    I have made the grand final. Current differences are:
    Me: Whitfield, Newman, Harmes, Steele, Miller, Petracca, Merrett, Hunter
    Them: Hind, Rich, Crisp, De Goey, Neale, Fiorini, Sidebottom, Rowell/Newcombe

    Am I crazy for thinking of dumping Hunter and Harmes to go to Crisp and Smith? Or should I be thinking of dumping Bramble and Bianco?

    • Aluniesheis

      August 17, 2021 at 11:08 pm

      Not at all, I was going to ditch Hunter before Lloyd forced me to keep him. Smith though I am not sure about.

  4. Justin Stitchup

    August 17, 2021 at 7:58 pm

    G’day Trent. Luke Jackson or Darcy Fogarty? Thanks bud

    • Aluniesheis

      August 17, 2021 at 11:09 pm

      Jackson has looked better, but both could score 80 or 30. Melb against Geelong is harder, although rucks gave been okay.

  5. Screech

    August 17, 2021 at 8:35 pm

    I have 550k to spend on any line. I am thinking about bringing Hind back in for the end of season trip, out of respect to his performance as one of the best mid-pricers of the season. Thoughts?

    • Aluniesheis

      August 17, 2021 at 11:10 pm

      He was good last week and Collingwood is a great match up. Good idea.

      • screech

        August 18, 2021 at 12:31 am

        thx trent

  6. Cal

    August 17, 2021 at 8:44 pm

    hey mate,
    appreciate the help this year.
    which option do you think is the best:
    1. hunter to j kelly (bench rookie down)
    2. hunter and petracca to greene and lyons
    3. hunter and walsh to danger and parish
    4. hunter and walsh to danger/darcy and neale
    cheers

    • Aluniesheis

      August 17, 2021 at 11:11 pm

      1

  7. bomberpap

    August 17, 2021 at 8:54 pm

    Who do you think is the best one week play out of Zorko, Crisp or JKelly?

    Thanks for your articles this year Trent, they’ve been full of insight and I’ve enjoyed your unique takes and taking us all through your thought processes each week!

    • Aluniesheis

      August 17, 2021 at 11:12 pm

      Zorko than Kelly

  8. Punchy

    August 17, 2021 at 9:31 pm

    Hey Trent, great article as always. Thanks very much for all your articles this season. Easily the number 1 article i look forward to each wk and awesome it comes out so early in the wk too! Has been a massive help to my season. Just wondering your thoughts on; Wingard, M Kennedy, Ladhams (if Lycett out) or Butters for a cheap option to replace Hunter? Then I’m likely to upgrade either Bailey Smith or Taranto. Who would you have faith in out of those 2? Nice to see your keen on Parish, wasn’t sure if he was a trade in option or not after recent form.

    • Aluniesheis

      August 17, 2021 at 11:14 pm

      How good has Wingard been and that is with Jaegar and Worpel in. Taranto would be a trade for me. But Kelly’s injury halts that. Wingard in .

  9. Denny

    August 17, 2021 at 9:53 pm

    Hey Trent, nice stuff.

    Current mids are: Steele, Mitchell, Merrett, Macrae, Lyons, Oliver, Gaff, Bramble

    This week do I go:

    1) Daniel to Touk/Fiorini/Wines/Trac/ Parish – Daniel with the tough matchup against Port
    2) Cumming to Guthrie/Wines/Fiorini/Trac – good match up against Carlton so thinking about keeping
    3) Bramble to Guthrie/Parish (anyone under 800k). good match up against the Tigers
    4) Marshall to Touk – pretty much any player – wasn’t impressed by him last week and apparently has a sore hand?

    My GF Daniel/Cumming are my vulnerable uniques and one other league Marshall is a unique too.

    • Tyson

      August 17, 2021 at 10:11 pm

      Trent would you go Taranto and sharp to Neale and serong or walsh and sharp to parish and Neale as walsh could get tagged this week

      • Aluniesheis

        August 17, 2021 at 11:17 pm

        Taranto to Neale is a winner. Walsh is a certainty to be tagged by Ash.

    • Aluniesheis

      August 17, 2021 at 11:16 pm

      Agreed, Daniel out to Wines or Fiorini. Took still got possessions but they were handballs and no marks. He is awesome, depending on injury.

  10. Belly

    August 17, 2021 at 11:13 pm

    Hi Trent, awesome work this season mate, some great info and advice you’ve shared and we’re all hoping you’ll be back with more next year.

    A couple of questions for you, who do you think the top 3 mids will be this round?

    Would you go Harmes and Taranto to Neale and Parish
    Or
    Keep Taranto and go Harmes and Haynes to Hind and Neale (or any 2 players upto $1.274M) ?

    • Aluniesheis

      August 17, 2021 at 11:21 pm

      You’d think some of those lesser games might be high scoring, the only danger with Essendon I see is if they are guaranteed the 8 before the game and the are a bit off.

      Top 3 mids. Parish v Collingwood, Steele v Fremantle and maybe Lyons v Brisbane. It is a lottery as even Wines could tackle his way to 140. And Mitchell v Richmond.

    • Aluniesheis

      August 17, 2021 at 11:22 pm

      Yes to Taranto and Harmes to Neale and Parish

      • Belly

        August 18, 2021 at 12:46 am

        Thanks mate, good luck for the final round.

  11. Jack

    August 17, 2021 at 11:59 pm

    thoughts on taranto and hunter to neale and jordan dawson/wingard/kennedy which one would you pick?

    • Aluniesheis

      August 18, 2021 at 12:07 am

      Each have an injured r22 player back in, but I think Wingard has the ceiling.

  12. JMD567

    August 18, 2021 at 12:09 am

    Hey Trent, you have been a legend all year mate, appreciate all the articles every week
    I managed to make it to the grand final in all of my leagues which I was apart of, which is great. Got a couple of questions
    1) Am I stupid to Emergency loop Dunkley (was a failed risk that cost me top 100 but now am stuck)
    2) What emergency score would be the line for Dunkley and Newcombe, I am personally thinking 80
    3) I was planning on matching my opponents Unique players in my main league, mainly because I am in good shape. Who should I match, Guthrie, Dangerfield, Zieball or Rich? Or would it be better to go more unique and bring in one of Neale, Parish, or Brayshaw

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 12:50 pm

      If you have a good comparison player than and a non player than there is no hassle EME Dunkley, just that if there is a late out and you need another EME you are stuck with a donut. For Dunkley against Newcome i’d take 80 as he might not be near the ball as much if Jaegar and Worpel back. Ziebell might be an out, but Brayshaw back in would a good unique, but he is not likely to go as high as Guthrie.

  13. Thomas

    August 18, 2021 at 1:01 am

    Howdy. Last time GWS played Blues, Walsh scored 55 (tagged by De Boer). With more to play for, I think I might have to dropped Walsh which is crazy to think. It will be between Yeo & Shuey (I play Draft)

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 12:47 pm

      Will Walsh beat Yeo and Shuey, personally I’d still back Walsh most of the time, but the tag again is an issue and if I had Walsh and nothing else to do then I’d trade up to an uber-premium. Or in draft, Yeo above Shuey, Shuey could do a hammy at any minute.

  14. Rex

    August 18, 2021 at 1:33 am

    Hey mate which trade do u believe is the best
    Taranto/Walsh Steele (captain)
    Stephenson to Lyons (captain)
    Bramble to Parish
    Cheers

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 12:45 pm

      Bramble to Parish

  15. Burnt

    August 18, 2021 at 7:26 am

    Hi Trent. Easily the most thought provoking and useful article for the week. Many thanks for your efforts and replies.
    You were talking about darts. What do you think about Bianco to Marc Murphy? (Last game of 92 and 300th coming up)
    Then thinking either Taranto to Guthrie or Parish as you suggested
    OR
    Hunter to Neale
    What do you think?

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 12:44 pm

      Murphy would have been good last week, but he is not playing this week. The biggest gap between those players might just be Hunter to Neale.

  16. Campbell

    August 18, 2021 at 9:56 am

    Is walsh a trade

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 12:43 pm

      A luxury trade if you have nothing else- have a look at your team, is Walsh the lowest scorer in comparison to what you can get. For example, a Ridley trade of 80 to a Whitfield of potentially 105 is 25 points, but Walsh who might go 110, but a tagged 80 is possible means is there a midfielder you can safely buy who will go above 105 guaranteed and possible up to 130 if Walsh still gets 110.

  17. Cody

    August 18, 2021 at 12:13 pm

    Hey trent,
    i can either go
    stewart->neale, hunter->side/stepho/dunk
    or
    stewart->parish hunter->any fwd under 600k
    cheers

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 12:40 pm

      If you are covered for Vc and c i’d go Neale and Stephenson

  18. Alfonso

    August 18, 2021 at 12:34 pm

    Daniel and taranto –> danger and rich
    Or
    West and Taranto, Ridley, houston, daniel, –> 170k rookie and whoever I can afford

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 12:39 pm

      West might play this week, but is not useful unless you need an EME- so punt West and Taranto if it improves your onfield scoring.

  19. Andy

    August 18, 2021 at 2:44 pm

    Have T Kelly and Sloane – want to ship both out. Planning on bringing in Neale which leaves 633k for final midfield spot – who do you think is best value under 633k for this week.

    Current thoughts are between:
    – Jake Stringer (big ceiling and playing against Pies who were heavily scored against last week by Neale, Zorko and Lyons)
    – Joel Selwood (Melbourne equal #1 easiest over the last five weeks for MIDs)
    – Jaidyn Stephenson (big ceiling and playing against one of the easiest teams to score against in the crows)

    Appreciate any thoughts!

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 12:38 pm

      Stringer and Neale are great options- though i’d probably go Stephenson for his potential to go 120.

  20. Jason

    August 18, 2021 at 6:09 pm

    What’s a better play.

    a) Going a high priced gun like Touk (who plays 4th hardest Sydney) & Finlay Macrae for disappointing premo like Cripps and gun Josh Kelly

    or

    b) Putting 100k on each F6/D6 and having about 400k to spend on each for 2x one game wonder out of the names you suggested: Fogarty, O’Brien Sholl, Bolton, D. Smith, S. Reid, J. Hogan, N. Larkey, L. Franklin.

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 12:37 pm

      The problem with b is the risk, probably one of those risks will pay off, but which one- If a rough punt, i’d a cheaper option like a Hogan or Larkey. But really I think option a, buy a gun who you can vc or c.

      • Jason

        August 19, 2021 at 4:01 pm

        Agh sorry Trent after re reading this i phrased it very poorly. I already have a full Mid with 8/10 Calvins Captains this week… option A is trading OUT miller.. (most expensive gun playing the 4th hardest team to score against and trading out rookie Macrae) and trading IN Josh Kelly & Cripps.
        So a 917k + 319k out for a 773k and 596k IN

        Option B is 800k between 2 one game wonders

  21. Chris

    August 18, 2021 at 6:39 pm

    Not after advice, just want to say thanks for the ripper articles and advice this year to us all!

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 12:35 pm

      Cheers, have loved every minute

  22. Man of Steele

    August 19, 2021 at 12:56 pm

    Thanks for the wisdom all year Trent!

    Lachie Hunter to Zorko or Bailey Smith to Jack Steele?

  23. Vin

    August 19, 2021 at 1:41 pm

    Thanks Trent for your insights throughout the year, it’s been a great read thanks. I’ve added some new aspects to my game thanks to you, and its been really interesting to reflect and see what you did to obviously win this game.

    Grear work mate and Thanks once again.

    Cheers..!

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 6:13 pm

      Thanks, I have enjoyed the ride- even though like most coaches who finish 1000-3000 you end with forced trades most weeks- but that’s fantasy.

  24. Darryn

    August 19, 2021 at 5:47 pm

    Any chance of late changes in the bombers match if results go their way do you think? If I was rutten that is what I would do. Give merrett or parish a rest before the final

    • Aluniesheis

      August 19, 2021 at 6:12 pm

      It is possible, but they don’t seem to have a niggle, but maybe having both could be bad- but at the moment I am running with it-I have to trade Kelly, the other option for me is Neale

      • Aluniesheis

        August 21, 2021 at 12:19 pm

        In the end I went with Wines

  25. JAMES

    August 20, 2021 at 9:07 am

    Hi Trent – thank you for your valuable input throughout the season. Which trade do you prefer? I am downgrading Reeves to fund my upgrade. My GF opponent has Bramble, Hunter & Zorko, but has a forced trade in Ziebell. Cheers mate.

    1) Hunter to Zorko(all trades done Friday night)
    2) Bramble to Parish
    3) Walsh to Steele(will captain him if Lyons does not go large)

    • Aluniesheis

      August 21, 2021 at 12:18 pm

      Bramble to Parish. Hope you kept Hunter.

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