NixTrader for R22 – Penultimate Edition

Penultimate.  A strange word meaning preceding ultimate.  For fortunate DT coaches it means only 4 league teams, 2 knockout rounds and 4 trades left.  Forget about team building it’s all about getting a full team of high scorers on the park this week.  Hopefully everyone has at least 1 team still in their leagues.

Scores in overall ‘par’ were way down – you needed only around 2,050 to hold your position.  The total team DT points weren’t that bad, but we had the lowest total number of 100s scored for the year (46).  Hence low scores across the board in individual DT teams and plenty of carnage to upset the outcome in individual games.  Very good week to have a week off for those who won the immunity gig in the preceding week.

My team:  Smack on par at 2,049 and happy to have week off.  My trades last week created some spare cash for this week, but I think I am going to be stuck just sideways trading defenders – I have Hendo, HepD and Hanley – like many other coaches.  Given the sporadic form of many defenders I expect these will be a tough decisions.

Anyway on with the team stats ….

Updated Tables – Team Averages & Next Games

Updated tables showing DT performance for each team, both for and against, are below.  The right hand panel has the averages for just the last 5 rounds so you can see more recent form.  Each table is ranked according to the number in the shaded column.  Teams are bundled together in colour groups of 6 ideally, although sometimes there are more or less than 6 as equal teams are kept together.

Some points of interest:

• Freo, Hawthorn and Collingwood continue to lead both sides of the FOR table.
• Western Bulldogs are the biggest improver over last 5 games (hold that thought).
• Essendon’s axles have now gone out in sympathy with their wheels.  They are currently scoring 140 points less their full season average and almost half as many hundreds.  (May be awesome in Supreme Court though!).

Some points of interest:

• Essendon has overtaken Melbourne in worst recent form – giving up nearly 5 hundreds a game in last 5 games.
• West Coast and Sydney are also giving up a more hundreds than usual in last 5 games.
• Collingwood and GWS are big improvers in last 5 games, giving up less hundreds.

The Next Rounds table below covers all the remaining games and shows which teams have the most helpful coming fixture for DT scores.  DT Finals rounds are shown in purple.  The teams retain their colour coding from the above 2 tables so it is a bit easier to understand.  I’ve changed the table around a bit since there are only 2 games left, for example the table is now ranked according to likely biggest increase in 100s.

Some points of interest

• Of all the teams that score consistent high DT points FOR (the blue teams), only one – Freo is in the top half of the table.  Significantly all the other blue teams are towards the bottom of the table.
• Western Bulldogs have the easiest run – and if you remember from FOR table they would be a blue team if it was taken only for last 5 games.
• Adelaide and Richmond players also have the DT stars aligning in their houses.

Defender Watch

If you are like me your big problem is working out which 2 defenders to trade in this week.  Here is a table I prepared earlier showing the top 29 defenders, i.e. having:

• yearly avge > 70 points per round
• avge last 3 > 75 points per round
• ranked by average over last 3 games.

Click on table and it will open in a bigger version so you can see all of it.

 

NixTrader Spreadsheet

Here is link to download spreadsheet (Excel2007) – NixTrader2013 R22 pub

 

Good luck to everyone for the coming round.

Any comments, questions or suggestions please post below, or tweet to @NixTrader.

Good chance I will be at DTTalk gathering in Pig Street on Saturday and happy to talk DT stats with anyone interested.  Also if anyone wants to beat me up for leading their team astray I look exactly like Calvin. 

———————– Usage notes from previous weeks ——————————–

I expect users are familiar with the spreadsheet now so I will not post the instructions and technical notes any more.  If anyone needs to see them they were last posted with NixTrader for Round 19.  You can look them up there.

Reminders from previous weeks:

• The team of the current overall leader is in NixTrader spreadsheet when you download it.  You can look at this team to see if you can learn anything from it, before replacing it with your own team.

• If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds, you can just select your blocks of players’ names from there and copy and paste them into this round’s spreadsheet.

• After lockout, you can also use NixTrader to start planning for next week.  Just enter your players’ actual scores in the column for the current round to update your watchlist or trades.

• Younglings:  if you don’t have Excel2007 software on your device you can still download the file, put it on a usb stick and ask around to find someone with Excel2007 software and ask to borrow their computer for an hour or so.

• Mac users have reported Brandon Ellis (Richmond) is placed as an Adelaide player in bye and draw tables.  This doesn’t occur in Windows Excel.  Mac users should be aware of this if you add Brandon Ellis to your spreadsheet.