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Trigger Happy: Renovation Round

It’s renovation week! JimBob discusses who you need to get into your team, who to hold and fold and how to get drunk at BT’s expense!

Welcome to renovation round!TriggerHappy

 

This is the round that you flick the under-performers or speculative picks, and pick up those players that somehow slipped trough your 1000s of hours of pre-season research. How did that happen?

Even back in the stone age where we didn’t have 2 trades a week, it was common practice that you use your first 2 trades of the season to right the wrongs of the first 2 rounds . In these days of YOLO there is definitely more than 1 strategy worth trying to see you try and improve your team.

 

1. Trading for cash generation – This one is pretty simple.  Sideways trade those unique rookies you thought would come out of nowhere and take the game by storm, or were picked just because they were named round 1 (Scott Lycett, I’m looking at you) to the rookies that have been looking like premiums. Here is a list of blokes you NEED to have in your team if you want to make sure you have enough cash generation

 

 Rank Player Projected price increase after rd 3
1 Jaeger O’Mera $84,300
2 Brett Goodes $78,600
3 Ollie Wines $74,200
4 Jack Viney $65,700
5 Lewis Stevenson $64,300
6 Heath Campbell $56,000
7 Sam Dwyer $55,600
8 Jake Neade $53,500
9 Lachie Whitfield $48,500
10 Matt Jones $48,300

Some of the popular rookies being traded out are green vest specialist Kane Mitchell, yet to debut tiger Nick Vlastuin and the bloke with one of the coolest gangster names in the AFL Jimmy Toumpas.

If you kept your finger on the pulse in the preseason, you would likely have 60% of these players already and maybe brought some of them in last round. As long as you have 7-8 of these players, you have got plenty of cash generation for the first part of the season.  This is a pretty conservative strategy, but tried and tested none the less.

2. Trading to prevent cash loss – Those premos that promised lemonade but gave you lemons?  Trade their sorry asses! With more trades than Melbourne’s percentage, team loyalty has been thrown out the window this season. You didn’t give me a 100? oh but you were being tagged by 2 players in the wet? The roof was open??? I don’t care! You’re outta here!

Here are some players who will lose the cash after they complete round 3.

Rank Player Projected price loss after rd 3
1 Brock McLean $56,000
2 Mitch Robinson $46,500
3 Toby Greene $41,900
4 Shane Tuck $33,700
5 Andrew Gaff $32,300
6 Dayne Zorko $31,600
7 Patrick Dangerfield $28,600
8 Jack Redden $26,400
9 Gary Ablett $16,400
10 Dane Swan $13,800

** Greg Broughton owners, you will have to wait another 2 weeks before you lose money on him.

The idea about giving the flick to the premos, is that you jump on of the gun rookies due to skyrocket,  or a  Midpricer like JJ Kennedy, Westhoff,  or Moloney who have shot out the blocks. This gives you some cash in the bank from the downgrade and ensures you still keep generating cash.

The big question you have to ask with this strategy is ‘Will the players I traded in score as many points as the guns I traded out?’  after all, the aim of the game is to get as many points as possible.  It’s a super ballsy strategy and the main flaw I see is that when you plan to get these sort of guys back in to your team in 2 or 3 weeks time when they have bottomed, you may have bigger fish to fry in other areas of your team.  Westhoff has turned back to a pumpkin? JJK re-injured his ankle? (knowing the eagles’ luck). You could be stuck with expensive duds in the prime cash cow culling season, or missing out on the next bubble boy.

While I don’t want to sound too pessemistic about this strategy, it’s high risk and high reward and could put you out ahead of the pack. A lot of luck will be needed and my experience tells me that any trades you plan to make in 3-4 weeks time is generally more wishful thinking, with a million variables between then and now.

The Ty Vickery Award

This year, I am deciding to give an award each week to the player  who shows a purple patch of form and traded into a bazillion teams, only to return to their former glory the next week.

The inaugural winner of the Ty Vickery award is a pretty clear cut winner Ty Vickery!vickery

 

Vickery came out in round 1 with all the promise of a ‘Breakout’ season, tonning up and followed this display with a Melbourne effort  of 34 and  a red vest. Fortunately he has a b/e of 8 so won’t lose any money, but can’t be relied on as a consistent scorer – I did tell you last week!

 

Stubby’s Holder’s and Folder’s

Patrick Karnezis – $238,500 B/E 64 The name that has turned to mud in DT circles quicker than  Israel Falou changes codes, Karnezis gave all a big FMDT when he was given the green vest for a paltry 9 points. Now the most traded player out this week and involved in 1 out of every 10 trades, it should be a no brainer to Fold him. Not quite.  His break even is is very gettable if he plays a whole game, he plays Melbourne and GC in the next 3 weeks and the season ending injury to Claye Beams may help him stay in the team and also out of the vest. While his job is to make money, he shouldn’t bleed too much money so he stays another week in The Running Man – HOLD

Kane Mitchell $119,300, B/E 22 Kitchell hasn’t been let off the leash yet, getting to know the Port green vest intimately for the past 2 weeks and thus has given us an average of 21.5 when he has got on the park. Conditioning says that he either gets a full game or is dropped to SANFL for a run down there. Will obviously make your decision easy if he is dropped and won’t generate cash as quick as other rookie mids.  Stays in my team this week as I have bigger fish to fry but the majority will likely – FOLD

Jack Watts $360,600, B/E 153 – Why was he even in your team in the first place? Because a number 1 pick HAS to improve at some point? He’s been put down back and he’s a super reader of the play? not yet! – FOLD

Zac Smith $300,700, B/E 95 – Like so many players in Gold Coast Smith has hit the fabled 3rd year of AFL and may start to get the hang of things as a ruckman – not yet. With a paltry average of 41 in the first 2 games, many picked  him based on structure and to keep Leuenberger’s spot warm until he returned. Well this week, the Smith to Leuey trade will make you $65k. Welcome Leuey! FOLD

 

The Round up

The Running Man had a pretty good week with the defenders being the stars. Heppell, Goddard and Birchall all shone in the 2074 and a ranking of 1373 is my best ever. This week I’m making the conservative trades of Lycett and Bradley Hill (Speculative pick that didn’t pay off) to Wines and Neade and locking in the pig for a 3rd week running. Backing my premos and hoping for big ones from Dangerfield, JJK and Cox.  Hoping to crack the top 1000 for the first time ever this week.

Finally, I will leave you with some light entertainment for the up coming Saturday night game. Don’t get too drunk!

 

BT bingo

Who are your renovation trades?

 

What strategy are you employing?

 

discuss below!

 

As always give me a follow on Twitter @jimbobholder

FMDT.

456 Comments

456 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Jackson S

    April 11, 2013 at 6:21 pm

    kennedy to moloney
    duffield to dixon/harbrow
    or kitchell to whitfield
    as my second trade already trade smith for berger and got plenty of cash

  2. Avatar

    Vanessa

    April 11, 2013 at 6:25 pm

    I know we have ‘unlimited’ trades but some of these comments seem to he forgetting the basics of DT. Why are people concerned about the likes of Zorko dropping in price?? You got him as a premo. His price is irrelevant. 2 bad games don’t make a season. He’s got the suns this week so wouldn’t be surprised to see him pump out 120.

    • Avatar

      Gregg

      April 11, 2013 at 7:40 pm

      90% of players dont really have a chance of an outright win, and H2H bragging rights is their main objective, in this case dropping a premo b4 he losses cash then getting him back at a lower price is very relevent

  3. Avatar

    Shags

    April 11, 2013 at 6:26 pm

    Karnezis OUT

  4. Avatar

    ablett4brownlow

    April 11, 2013 at 6:29 pm

    Please give your thoughts on my trades for this week

    I.Maric –> Luenberger
    K.Mitchell –> Moloney

    Cash Left: 132K

    My MID and RUC lines will look this with these trades

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Watson, Pendlebury, Deledio, Moloney, Wines, O’meara (Kommer, Viney)

    RUC: Cox, Luenberger (Blicavs, Rowe)

    • Avatar

      JimmyBob

      April 11, 2013 at 7:08 pm

      whose in your forward line?

      could you go trade karnezis to leuey by putting cox in the fwd line?

      you wont have to worry about a ruck trade again (hopefully)

    • Avatar

      mitchj

      April 12, 2013 at 12:03 am

      keep maric and just leave mitchell on your bench and put viney on your field.

  5. Avatar

    Sunderpants

    April 11, 2013 at 6:40 pm

    Trading out Greene

    For Pendles, Swallow or Ablett??

    BE and projections says Pendles?? Ablett in a week or two with a price drop. Swallow low BE but higher risk???

    Hmmmmmm…

    • Avatar

      Gregg

      April 11, 2013 at 7:42 pm

      i dont think swallow is a risk, he will kill it this year

  6. Avatar

    Adam

    April 11, 2013 at 6:49 pm

    Players im keen on removing:
    Byrnes, Karnezis, Bolton & Zorko? Also have Dangerfield, Lucas and JPK in my mid. Who to get rid of first?

    • Avatar

      Adam

      April 11, 2013 at 6:52 pm

      and Kane Mitchell, who i might swap to vlastuin, in the coming rounds.

    • Avatar

      Lukey85

      April 11, 2013 at 9:58 pm

      I’d ditch Byrnes and Karnezis big time. Can you downgrade one to Dwyer and upgrade the other?

  7. Avatar

    Aaron

    April 11, 2013 at 7:34 pm

    How much would swallows price rise after this round?

  8. Avatar

    Gregg

    April 11, 2013 at 7:44 pm

    $23,700 according to ass coach gold

    • Avatar

      Aaron

      April 11, 2013 at 7:47 pm

      Ok thanks how about libba cause I’m not sure who to put in between the two?

  9. Avatar

    Jesse

    April 11, 2013 at 7:53 pm

    Seriously considering trading Zorko to the Hoff then trading him to Buddy in 2 weeks time… Someone please talk some sense into me

  10. Avatar

    Billy

    April 11, 2013 at 8:11 pm

    Keep Zorko or trade Zorko!?

  11. Avatar

    FMDT

    April 11, 2013 at 8:15 pm

    Looking to trade out two:(Preffering k mitchell and cox ATM)
    1. K Mitchell
    2. Chapman
    3. Karnezis
    4. Cox (FWD)
    5. Armstrong

    And trade in:
    1. Monfries
    2. Crouch
    3. Terlich

    • Avatar

      DTking

      April 12, 2013 at 1:01 am

      Why would you trade out Chapman? At least he’s been performing well the past two weeks especially if he’s in your forward line.

    • Avatar

      Sheeeen

      April 12, 2013 at 3:29 am

      I would take a serious look at the Eagles upcoming draw before trading out Cox.

      Melbourne
      Carlton
      Port
      Bulldogs
      Brisbane
      North
      GWS

      Nic Nat should be back in there at some stage too. Will be backing him to lift his average and barring injury, be a keeper. Would worry more about losing money from players that you got to make money than for your keepers…

  12. Avatar

    Ryan

    April 11, 2013 at 8:17 pm

    how much is westhoff suppose to go up? thinking of going karnezis to westhoff then trading westhoff out after this week to dale thomas

  13. Avatar

    Billy

    April 11, 2013 at 8:27 pm

    What’s everyone’s thoughts on

    Karnezis to Dwyer
    And
    K.mitchell to mullet ( for mullets price rise then next week trade him out for crouch)

    • Avatar

      JimmyBob

      April 11, 2013 at 8:35 pm

      thats what you can do with heaps of trades!

      as long as there is no other major flaws in the tea, go for it!

      • Avatar

        Billy

        April 11, 2013 at 8:42 pm

        Just new to the cash cow stuff cheers!

        Only other things are Zorko and maybe danger but I think I might hold them what do you think?

        • Avatar

          JimmyBob

          April 11, 2013 at 11:16 pm

          back you premos for a couple more weeks. even if they lose a bit of value im sure you’ll find other guns who have also dropped

  14. Avatar

    Jacob

    April 11, 2013 at 8:32 pm

    Out: Scully Smith
    In: Viney Goldstein

    Thoughts?

    • Avatar

      mitchj

      April 12, 2013 at 12:13 am

      yes

  15. Damo

    Damo

    April 11, 2013 at 8:37 pm

    What should I do? One out of:
    Karnezis to Kennedy
    Karnezis to Neade
    or
    Patton to Neade

    My other trade was Plowman to Heath.

    • Avatar

      Stelzy

      April 11, 2013 at 9:22 pm

      Get kennedy in there if you dont have him, hes a gun. Didnt touch the ball in the first quarter against the hawks, kicks 5 goals and almost tonnes up. Hes my boy, had him locked since preseason

      • Avatar

        Adam

        April 11, 2013 at 9:24 pm

        yeah, im gonna trade Byrnes-JJK.
        not sure on what to do with karnezis, bolton, and zorko. :/

        • Avatar

          Billy

          April 11, 2013 at 9:27 pm

          Hold Zorko for this week I reckon and if he can’t perform against Gold Coast get rid of him

  16. Avatar

    Mark

    April 11, 2013 at 9:39 pm

    Awesome article! Lots to think about this week.

    I’m considering either Zorko > Dwyer then K. Mitchell > Watson

    or

    Karnezis > Dwyer then K.Mitchell > Moloney

    Currently have three rookies playing in mid (Wines, O’Meara, Viney on field with Mitchell and Kommer on bench) and not one starting in forward line (Neade and Macaffer on bench). Maybe the extra forward rookie playing, would even the load a little more (first option would do this). Any thoughts on this trade folks?

    • Avatar

      Billy

      April 11, 2013 at 10:07 pm

      Option 2 in my opinion
      Simply because Zorko could come out and smash Gold Coast!
      Your still making money with Dwyer and Moloney, I have done pretty much the same trade except went with A.Mullet cause I couldn’t afford Moloney

  17. Avatar

    cody

    April 11, 2013 at 9:53 pm

    how much is kennedy going up in cash this round??

    and

    how much is karnsis going down??

    • Avatar

      Mark

      April 11, 2013 at 9:58 pm

      Predictor is saying if Karnesis was to play he would probably drop $8,900
      and Kennedy will go up around $45,300

  18. Avatar

    mancini22

    April 11, 2013 at 10:03 pm

    Need some help please!
    I’ve made the trade of karnezis to jjk
    2nd trade
    Grimes to Birchall
    Grimes to Charlie Dixon
    Dangerfield to Swallow
    Dangerfield to Moloney
    Put cox in the forward and go zorko to Kruzuer
    Kane mitchell to matt jones
    Feedback would be great!

  19. Avatar

    Alex

    April 11, 2013 at 10:04 pm

    Considering the lack of good forward options I was thinking of getting Monfries or Westhoff in. I’m thinking Westhoff won’t hold his form, what about Monfries??

    • Avatar

      Mark

      April 11, 2013 at 10:26 pm

      Port haven’t played anyone, (they will this week thou ;) a better indication of where Monfries is at will come in the next few weeks. If it was me I would hold on that one, but then again with so many trades this year you could always trade him out again if it goes pear shaped.

  20. Avatar

    pavalova29

    April 11, 2013 at 10:32 pm

    am i the only one to be thinking of dumping kruezer when his price is maxed out in about 2 weeks? i mean he started strong last year as well only reason i picked him

  21. Avatar

    Adam

    April 11, 2013 at 10:56 pm

    Thinking about going:
    Bolton –> Josh J Kennedy.
    Karnezis –> Elliot.
    also have shannonbyrnes that i need to get rid of.

    • Avatar

      Josh

      April 11, 2013 at 10:58 pm

      opinion of elliot vs monfries, westhoff (is the difference in score vs difference in price rise?)
      i have no idea!

  22. Avatar

    Josh

    April 11, 2013 at 10:56 pm

    Trading out Shannon Byrnes, had it locked in on Jamie Elliot (i liked the way he played and think hes got a lot of potential) but now thinking about Westhoff(due to his price rise) or maybe Monfries
    I think Elliot scores are the most honest and Monfries and Westhoff havn’t been tested properly, Is Elliot a risk with Fasolo coming back to play?

    • Avatar

      Josh

      April 11, 2013 at 11:22 pm

      anyone?

    • Avatar

      Adam

      April 12, 2013 at 12:25 am

      yeah ive gone bolton–> kennedy.
      so i’ve got cash to go byrnes – elliot or monfries etc.
      But im worried that i wont be satisfied, considering theres Dixon and Moloney in the mid which are tempting to get, but the only mid i’d be thinking of removing is JPK DANGER and LUCAS. but i want to give them all another round.
      next round, if zorkos plays bad, hes gone ill swap him for petterd if he plays well. sorry this messages is a bit messy to read.

      • Avatar

        Josh

        April 12, 2013 at 11:56 am

        All good! i think im gonna stick it with elliot, as i still have the under performing varcoe (dt irrelevant) and dont want to get a bandaid solution, also have zorko who i really want to keep! and pavlich who i cant get rid of yet (due to his reasonable performance last week)..
        still have westhoff (+40k, with a score 70pts in round 3)
        vs elliot, monfries (~+20k, with a score of 70pts in round 3)
        taking this into consideration isn’t making it any easier.

  23. Avatar

    sam

    April 11, 2013 at 10:57 pm

    would appreciate some feedback
    so do i go geary > suban (to make cash)and zsmisth > kreuzer/ goldsteing
    or karnezis > robbi gray? or some other cheapo and then zsmith > kreuzer/goldstein

    • Avatar

      Adam

      April 12, 2013 at 12:31 am

      hm, id go karnezis to -elliot, monfries, JJK, or westhoff. thats if you got the cash.

  24. Avatar

    michael sherwood

    April 12, 2013 at 12:02 am

    my rookies are pretty solid but want to bring in Ollie Wines this week, i have the option of ditching k. mitchell or k.stevens (POD fail!) both named emergancy this week.. who should i trade out?!

    • Avatar

      JimmyBob

      April 12, 2013 at 2:45 pm

      Ditch Stevens

      I’m in a similar boat as I picked Brad Hill and was hoping for an 80 average as you would expect from Kobe.in the long run Mitchell will likely make more coin than Stevens (once he gets a full game) and you also get $40k out of the trade.

  25. Avatar

    Ash

    April 12, 2013 at 1:48 am

    On the verge of breaking down trying to decide between my trade options lol

    Dangerfield or JPKennedy > Moloney
    Vlastuin or Kitchell > Whitfield
    Smedts or Karnezis > Dwyer or Monfries

    also not too sure if I should keep Mitch Robinson simply to avoid the cash drop??

    • Avatar

      Ash

      April 12, 2013 at 1:53 am

      Dwyer is the only Top 10 Cash Cow rookie I don’t have in my side atm

  26. Avatar

    Brendan

    April 12, 2013 at 4:47 am

    Thoughts on cooney?

    I traded out danger for him. Did moloney just get lucky?

  27. Avatar

    Kane Grimter

    April 12, 2013 at 5:11 am

    Hey guys, started a bit of project called Journey of the Salmon Boys, about my Dreamteam. Currently 121st overall, just wanted to use it as a way to record and discuss my trade thoughts and ideas throughout the season. Love to hear thoughts about it and Dreamteam. Thanks http://wp.me/p3a6Bx-2G

  28. Avatar

    jack

    April 12, 2013 at 11:33 am

    Thoughts in Johnson this round thinking if trading him in for zorko

  29. Avatar

    lukemiic

    April 14, 2013 at 12:50 pm

    so does anyone have any thoughts on what I should do this week with over 500k in the bank, wanting to trade patton out and also looking to get rid of watts and stephen hill.

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