Josh J Kennedy – Deck of Dream Team 2013

Name: Josh J Kennedy
Club: West Coast
Position: Forward
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $272,300
Bye Round: 12
2012 Average: 52.8
2012 Games Played: 7
Predicted Average: 82

Why should I pick him?

The most obvious and convincing answer is that he will be incredible value. Like underpriced players such as Porplyzia (2012), Petrie (2011) and Waters (2010 and 2012) in the past, Kennedy is priced well below his previous and expected future output. He played just 7 games this year due to the painful and restrictive plantar fasciitis, which usually means he would receive a 10% discount on his 52.8 avg – but players who have averaged under 55 in the past generally haven’t been discounted. Either way, to improve on 52.8 won’t be an issue – to put that in perspective, Scott Gumbleton averaged 53.8 points per game last year…. So yeah, he’ll smash that.

His success as a value pick comes down to how much he can improve on last year’s output. Porplyzia improved on his effective average by 35.8 points, Petrie by 36.9 and Waters by 52.7 and 23.3 in those highly successful years I mentioned above – can Josh Kennedy get into the ball-park of these figures? Absolutely.

The graph above shows Kennedy’s yearly averages over his career, fitting to a career arc nicely. So if we take 2012 as an outlier – obviously JJK wasn’t at his best this season, troubled in those he played by that ankle ailment for just 7 games – then based on his steadily rising scores up until that point, it’s fair to assume that his average will continue to rise as he comes into his prime while the Eagles are Top 4 contenders. Natural improvement alone should see him topping 80 points a game.

If JJK has a solid pre-season (training-wise, I’m not worried about the NAB cup), then he should have a very similar season to 2011. West Coast are still towards the top end of the ladder, as they were in ’11, which has a significant influence on a player’s scoring (as opposed to playing in a weaker side), and that effect is most noticeable with CHFs (Highest scoring CHFs of the last 5 years – Franklin, Riewoldt, Pavlich and Cloke. No surprise they’ve all played for finals-quality sides). It’s important to note that Kennedy will benefit from having a fit LeCras and fit Darling by his side – he struggled a bit being the main focus (and underdone) in the last four games of 2012. With the rest of the West Coast forward line fit, he will drift back into his roaming role and blend into the attack with plenty of other dangerous options around him for defenders to worry about.

And lastly, and perhaps most importantly, he’s a top bloke. I don’t know about you, but I think I’d quit if I had a DT full of the Milnes, Firritos, and Cale Mortons of the world – it’s always better to have a team full of players you actually like. Evidence here.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

For a player coming off an injury-affected year, durability is the obvious concern. I’m not going to go into the medical details, but basically, plantar fasciitis is caused by continuous stress to the arch of the foot, which causes microscopic tears that accumulate and compound over time. This wasn’t something that he suffered in Round 5 (his last game before a 4 month break), it was an ailment that had been dealing with as early as the pre-season. That voids his whole 2012 season for mine. So if he can get up in Round 1 after doing a full pre-season – and all the running, kicking, jumping and twisting that it involves – I won’t be too worried. It’s volume of activity that aggravates his condition, not playing AFL football, so the risk of re-injury will be low.

Another reason could be that you think he’ll be rusty after last year. Given that the Eagles have a couple of tough games early up (Fremantle, Hawthorn and Carlton in first four rounds), it’s probably reasonable to expect him to start slow until he builds up his confidence.

Apart from that JJK is all upside – I can’t think of another reason not to pick him – except that you might have others ahead of him now that the forward line has been reduced by one.

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN – In the age of the Mid/Fwd DPP, it’s hard to see JJK scoring enough to earn a spot in the top 10 Forwards by average. However, at his price, he only has to average 70-odd (a figure that he topped in the three seasons prior to 2012) to render himself a worthwhile mid-price Cash Cow and become that useful stepping stone to a full-blown Premium with an upgrade-downgrade manoeuvre around the bye period. If he produces any more than that it’s a bonus; and if he tops 80 points a game as I’ve predicted, then he’s a perfect 5th or 6th Forward that you can carry with you for the entire season.

For those interested, here are my projected stats for JJK in 2013:

 I’m all in at this stage! Are you convinced?

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