Miracle Men – 2012 in Review

In February this year, I wrote an article discussing possible breakout candidates for 2012. When I say breakout, I mean that they BREAK the HELL OUT and smash it all year. Examples of these from 2011 were Liam Shiels, Matt Suckling and Nat Fyfe. Has this season given us any Miracle Men? What has become of my projections now we’re done and dusted? Let’s take a look…

Just to clarify, the basic reasoning I was using to justify ‘Miracle’ status is for a player to go from an average of less than 60 to have a massive breakout year as below:

For a Defender, Ruck or Forward – 85 + average over 20 games or more

For a Midfielder – 100 + average over 20 games or more

So let’s first look at the players I suggested could fall into this category to see how far I was off the mark (and boy was I):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s fair to say that I missed the mark with a lot of these by a country mile. Whilst my prior evidence suggested a potential breakout, the above proves that despite potential – there are way too many risk factors that come into play to be able to accurately pick such a huge breakout. Things like injury, suspension, form and coach can all have a detrimental effect on a players season – particularly one with a scattered past or one in their AFL infancy. Another thing that has devastated this progression of breakouts is the further development of the sub-rule. With fringe players often handed the green/red vest, their ability to consistently deliver becomes a frustrating task for both player and DT coach.

Of my 11 above, Masten, Grima and Wallis were the closest, whilst others including Rohan and Colyer failed to play much footy due to injury – and Connors… well let’s not even go there.

So we’ve established how hard it is to actually breakout in this way – did any players actually become ‘Miracle Men’ in 2012? Let’s have a look…

Dayne Zorko (BRL, MID/FWD, 94.69 avg from 16 games), Sam Gibson (NOR, MID, 90.92, 12), Jon Giles (GWS, RUC, 81.95, 20) and Toby Greene (GWS, MID, 96.21, 19) as first years aren’t really eligible given their starting point however all deserve to be mentioned here based on their respective first year averages alone.

There appear to be 3 players that went very close to this mark, with only ONE of those falling into the category.

Firstly, Adelaide X-Factor Patrick Dangerfield – With a starting price of $349,800 and carry over average of just 70, many were sceptical to say the least. But he’s truly broken out and silenced his critics in 2012 to become a star of the competition, but due to his slightly higher starting point he’s just not quite Miracle Man material. However with an average of 101.91 from 22 games, he was one of the picks of the year regardless.

Next is Freo DPP and human canvas Clancee Pearce. After a great start to the year, many coaches jumped on him as a POD. But after a mid-year form slump his selection was shaky. Priced at $305,000 in the preseason, he’s gone on to play 22 games in 2012 at an average of 84.64, rising over $100k in the process. Great job Clancee.

Finally, congratulations to 2012’s one and only Miracle Man – the Tiger Mullet, Mr. Ivan Maric. Starting the year with a lowly price of $262,700 and carrying over an average of 59, he proposed little risk if you were skilled (or lucky) enough to pick him up as part of your ruck division. Playing 21 games and finishing with an average of 98.10 to be the 2nd highest scoring and averaging ruckman of 2012; and with a price now well above the $400k mark – my hat goes off to him (and Richmond for giving this guy a go).

2013 Miracle Men at a Glance

Now, it’s way too early to speculate on who’s set for a massive breakout season in 2013 until we at least see how the players are tracking in the preseason, however here’s a few names that could be bandied around in the preseason for 2013 (you heard it here first):

Name, Club, Position, 2012 average (Games played)

Dom Tyson, GWS, MID, 61.60 (10)

Zac Smith, GCS, RUC, 58.38 (16)

Claye Beams, BRL, MID, 65 (8)

Jordan Russell, CAR, MID, 57 (7)

Shane Savage, HAW, MID, 55.44 (18)

Jared Polec, BRL, MID, 54.1 (12)

Chris Knights, ADE, FWD/MID, 49.4 (5)

Zach Tuohy, CAR, DEF, 46.4 (19)

Jeremy Laidler, CAR, DEF, 45.8 (4)

If you’ve enjoyed my AFL Dream Team commentary and articles this year, make sure to follow me @McRathDT for some offseason Twatter and updates on the preseason goings on at DTTalk.