Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 14

Covering all the Leftovers

Paul Chapman – I really like Chappy this week against Port and think he’ll dominate at his home ground (Simonds) where he has averaged 119 there this year. He had 100 on them last year and has 6×100+ scores on them in his last 7 games. Should be very good.
Matthew Boyd – Tough one for him I predict especially after he let some people down last week with that 70, as some people came undone chasing my #2 pick instead of my #1.. tut tut. He had scores of 115 and 85 on the Bombers last year and he will not feature in my top 5 this week, but he should be pretty solid.
Dayne Beams – Ok… Beam has been on fire. Like mega on fire as he has scored 117 and 155 in his last 2 games this year and has 7×100+ scores in his last 8 games with a lowest score of only 98. But he will get tagged this week! Fremantle used 3 taggers last week against the Bombers and with the form Dayne is in, he is a sure thing to get one with Pendles out. He scored 128 (31d, 7m, 2g) on the Dockers last year and they are his favourite team to play. But he will be given more attention this week than he has in recent weeks.
Dean Cox – Remember when Coxy had 145 on the Suns last year? He should be very good again, but I believe we have better on the radarrrr.
Brett Deledio – Ummm, he averages just 93 on the Crows in his last 3 and only had 82 on them last year. His form is ok and has averaged 96 in his last 3 this year… but nah.
Brent Stanton – Was tagged by Howard last year when he played the Dogs but still managed a huge 153 on them and another nice 138 on them earlier in the year. Stants has had 7×100+ scores on the Dogs in his last 8 and will pump out a huge score this week. He only had 89 in his last game at Etihad but did have 140, 193 and 153 before that to average 139 there this year. After averaging 135 in his first 6 games this year, his highest score is only 115 in his last 4. Stanton will be big this week. Look out Stanton owners.
Scott Pendlebury – will not play so cancel that thought. Sorry!
Stevie Johnson – I thought Stevie would kill Port but he only had 77 on them last year. In fact, his highest score against them in his last 5 games is just 103 so it’s a pass from me although he should be ok you’d think as the Cats will thump the Power at Simonds.
Scott Thompson – Did you know that Scott Thompson kills the Tigers with previous scores of 100, 122, 121, 124, 115 and 129. Plus, he is coming off a huge 141 he had at AAMI last time he was there and there is no reason why he should be good again this week.
Dayne Zorko – Ok… I get that he has been good but I really can not believe people are constantly asking me about putting him in my top 5. Don’t you own Ablett, Swan, Stanton etc… is your team that bad, that Zorko is your best option? C’mon guys, the bye rounds have really messed with your heads ha ha.
Jobe Watson – Jobe is the flavour of the month and has been in ripping form averaging 120 in the last 3 weeks and hasn’t scored under 110 at Etihad in his 5 games there this year. He had 97 on the Bulldogs last year and received a tag from Daniel Cross, surprisingly not Picken. He did have 135 on them prior to that though. Should be good, once again this week.
Joel Selwood – Despite having a nice 129 on the Power last year, Selwood only averages 84 on them in his last 3. Yeah, he should be ok… but surely you have one of these guys below.

Separated by 0.1pts – Neck and Neck 

Ok let’s get down the serious stuff. This week there is not much that separates Gary Ablett and Dane Swan! This is one of the toughest calls I’ve had to make this year and with 0.1pts separating these guys in average for 2012, I’m about to show you why it’s hard to call..

The thing is… there are so many positive signs and so many arguments for either picking Swanny or Ablett. At the end of the day, both ‘should’ be fantastic! So let’s have a look at why I think these guys are going to be awesome.

Dane Swan

This week Swanny plays Fremantle and averages 138 on them in his last 3 games with 125 (35d) on them last year. Swanny has posted 5×120+ scores on Freo over his career of 9 games and certainly ticks the ‘history’ box here against them. His form has been great as well with 132 and 142 coming in his most recent games, which happened to be at the MCG where he plays again this week. But, the million dollar question here is: Will Crowley tag Swan? The answer is… most likely. In Crowley’s last 3 games he has tagged Watson (101), Deledio (78) and Thompson (65) which shows he has been going to the biggest gun of opposition teams. But last year when Freo met the Pies, he tagged Leon Davis of all people… crazy! But we need to look at who Ross Lyon sent his #1 tagger in Clinton Jones to last year when he was coaching the Saints. Dale Thomas was his first target early in the season and Dane Swan copped it in their last encounter. Crowley could go to Daisy, Beams, Steele or Swan… but even if he does go to Swan,  I seriously think he will still be awesome and still pump out something huge like he has in the past!

Gary Ablett

Last year when Ablett played against the Eagles he scored 132 (32d, 9t, 2g) despite a tag from Scott Selwood. Over the last few weeks, West Coast have rated themselves at going head to head with opponents as they did last week against Collingwood which saw Beams and Swan combine for a massive 72d. If this is the case, Gaz will surely find 40+. Ablett is going for his 8^th straight 100+ score on these guys and has averaged a massive 126 on them over the last 7 games. Ablett’s form has been somewhat inconsistent though with 148, 61 and 186 coming in his last 3 this year. Did I mention Ablett loves playing at Patersons Playground? Oh man! He averages 139 there in his last 3 games and had 175 and 132 there in 2011. To prove it was no fluke, he also had 110 and 130 over in the west in 2010. I’m expecting something big!

At the end of the day I have given my final nod to Ablett for all of the above reasons. I guess the tag of Crowley holds the most weight for me here but either Swanny or Gaz could have 160+ on their day. It really could go either way. But I’m not a pirate who sits on the fence. My pirate balls are on the line once again this week and Ablett will be my #1 option.

I hope things fall your way this week and I hope my hours of number crunching will help you to snag a ripping captain. Good luck me hearties.