Every Point Matters

The 3 point scoring methods nobody really considers 

When selecting a team we focus on the key stats – kicks, marks, handballs, hit outs and goals. These are the major contributors to a player’s Dreamteam scoring output. They are also stand out when you watch a game.

These stats are not the only way players can score and more importantly lose points. The least analysed contributions to a players scoring for Dreamteam must be tackling and free kicks, for and against.

These often overlooked statistical categories can play a major role in players scoring as well identifying undervalued/growth players.

Take the example of breakout 2011 star Jack Redden of the Brisbane Lions. In 2011, he scored on average 34 points from tackles which contributed 31% of his points per game average of 109.1.  More time in the middle and better ball winning ability also helped but his dedication to tackling gave Redden owners a safety net. In 2012, as he matures and Brisbane improves, we can expect that Redden will win more of the ball. If he maintains his commitment to defensive effort, then he only needs to average 3 more possessions to take him to the Dane Swan scoring level.

On the downside, Buddy Franklin and his aggressive playing style and habit of talking to the umpires cost his owners a net 137 points over the course of last season. This equates to 1.35 games at his average of 101.68. A zero sum return would move Buddy from 11^th to 4^th in terms of total points for forwards. No suspensions would also have seen Buddy lead the league in forward scoring by 240 points.

An appreciation of the potential impact of these silent stats leads us to ask – who are the players that benefit and struggle with tackles and free kicks.

Tackling – You don’t have to have the ball to score

Measures to slow the game have seen the amount of tackling increase as more contests are created. At the same time shifts in tactics such as the zone press has seen less one on one coverage and more opportunities for players to make tackles. The tactics have required players to harass the ball carrier to create turnovers/stoppages.

In the 2007 season, there were on average 844.2 tackles per round (3,376.8 DT Points) with Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong making 58 tackles each per round. There was a 1.4% increase in average tackles in 2008 to 856 per round. Sydney and Geelong were the top teams with 60 per round.  In 2009, there was a massive 15.9% increase in average tackles to 992.1 per round. The rotations policy favoured by coaches in 2009 allowed for players to go all out for short periods. St Kilda on the way to the Grand Final made 73.2 tackles per round. Slow it down specialists North Melbourne and Sydney were second and third at 67 tackles per game.

Just when you thought that players couldn’t make any more tackles, in 2010, tackles per round increased by another 9% to 1,081.7 (4,326.8 DT points).  Premiers Collingwood lead the league with 74.8 tackles per game. Last year, despite the sub rule saw tackling increase 2.6% per round adjusting for the entry of Gold Coast. Including Gold Coast there were 1,171.2 tackles per round or 4,684.8 DT points.  Sydney set a record for tackles per round of 78.9. Every team in 2011 averaged more tackles per round than the best team in 2008. The table below ranks the teams by average tackles per round.

 

Rank	Team	Tackles
1	Collingwood Magpies	58.2
2	Brisbane Lions	58
3	Geelong Cats	58
4	Sydney Swans	56.4
5	Melbourne Demons	56
6	North Melbourne Kangaroos	55
7	St Kilda Saints	52.6
8	Carlton Blues	52.4
9	West Coast Eagles	52.2
10	Fremantle Dockers	51.9
11	Western Bulldogs	51.6
12	Adelaide Crows	51.4
13	Port Adelaide Power	50.5
14	Essendon Bombers	48.6
15	Hawthorn Hawks	46.5
16	Richmond Tigers	44.9

As you can changes to game in tactics, defensive alignments and pressure has seen a 38.7% in tackling in 5 seasons.

In terms of individuals, former Sydney Captain Brett Kirk was the standard bearing for tackling. If he made 1 more tackle in 2006, from 2003 until 2009 Kirk would have led the league in tackles every season. From a Dreamteam point of view he just didn’t win enough of the ball.

To determine who are the best tacklers, I have used a cut off of 100 tackles per season. To get 100 tackles a player would need to make 1 a quarter. In proportional teams 100 tackles would contribute 20% of a players season score of 2,000 points (91 points per game over a 22 game season).

Over the past five season there have been the following number of players per season that made 100 tackles;

• 2007 – 19 players
• 2008 – 15 players
• 2009 – 26 players
• 2010 – 42 players
• 2011 – 46 players

In those 5 season there are a numbers of players who break this benchmark in multiple seasons.

1. Andrew Swallow lead the league in 2010 with 183 tackles in 22 games. Average of 8.3 tackles per game or 33 Dreamteam points per game.  He has finished in the top 12 in the league in tackles for the past 5 seasons.
2. Jude Bolton and Matt Priddis have finished in the top 12 in each of the last 5 years, mainly 4-6 in the league.
3. A fit Lenny Hayes and Dom Cassisi regularly feature in the top 5. Cassisi made 103 tackles in 13 games last year at 7.9 per game.
4. James Kelly, Luke Ball, Daniel Cross and Joel Selwood are amongst the top 15 most seasons.
5. The tackling output of Leigh Montagna, Jimmy Bartel and Brad Sewell has declined in the past two seasons contributing to their decreased scoring.
6. In 2011 West Coast tagger Scott Selwood led the league in tackles with 202 (808 DT points). This is the highest amount in the past 5 years.
7. In 2011 with more time on the ground premium Dreamteam players Gary Ablett, Matt Boyd, Scott Pendlebury, Scott Thompson, Marc Murphy, Nic Dal Santo and Paul Chapman all made over 100 tackles.

In 2010 Jack Reddden was 22^nd in tackles making 115. In 2011, he made 166 which was good for equal 4^th in the league.  So who can make a Redden like jump from good to great based on a solid commitment to tackling. The following all made more than 100 tackles last season:

• Liam Shields – 6 per game
• Jack Trengrove – 5.2 per game
• Jack Ziebell – 5 per game
• Steele Sidebottom – 4.28 per game
• Luke Shuey – 4.16 per game

If we look at players eligible for the Rising Star Award last years rookies the best tacklers were:

• Tom Liberatore – 4.8 per game
• Jordan Gysberts – 4.3 per game
• Shuey
• Jack Steven – 4 per game
• David Swallow – 4 per game
• Allen Christensen – 3.7 per game
• Dion Prestia – 3.5 per game

When considering two similarly priced young players who are expected to improve to a similar level, pick the player with more tackles as they learn to find the ball the score will improve more. In the mean time if they play bad you should get 20-32 points from tackles. We will also see that players with good tackling numbers get extra points from holding the ball free kicks.

 

Saints and Sinners – Frees For and Against

Picking a player that wins free kicks is unlikely to contribute significantly to you winning your league. The 1 point awarded to players winning a free kick doesn’t seem like a lot. In fact a 1 point different in season averages equates to only $5,200 in a players value.

As we all know that every point can matter and finals can be decided by 1-2 points.  On the flipside, there are few things more frustrating than checking a players live scoring and seeing the number go backwards.

Looking at the raw numbers the number if free kicks for and against are always nearly equal every round every year. In 2011, there were 342.3 free kicks for and 341.8 free kicks against per round.   Excluding Gold Coast, the numbers of free kicks awarded per round increased 5% and the free kicks against increasing slightly more by 5.2%.

The number of free kicks varies greatly per season with increases by 9% per season 2010 and decreases by 11.4 in 2009. The difference between frees for and against is fairly constant with only 1-2 more free kicks for rather than against awarded each round for the past 5 seasons.

The most disciplined teams in 2011 were

• Port Adelaide – most free kicks awarded at 22.6 and only 19 per round against. 3.6  positive free kick count was the highest in the AFL.
• West Coast – 21.9 free kicks for and 19.2 against per round were next best followed by Collingwood 20.2 free kicks for and 18.7 against.

The least discipline teams in 2011 were:

• Richmond, 22.2 free kicks against per round followed by Hawthorn 21.8 free kicks against and Geelong/Essendon 21.6 free kicks against per round.
• Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong, Essendon, St Kilda, Sydney, Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne were all penalised more free kicks against then awarded free kicks for.

Over the past three seasons

• West Coast, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, North and Geelong have had the most free kicks awarded for.
• Hawthorn, Richmond, Geelong and Sydney have been penalised against them.

In terms of individual players in 2011 on a per game basis the umpires favourites, free kicks for, were:

• Joel Selwood – Geelong, 3 free kicks for per game.
• Marc Murphy – Carlton, 2.5 free kicks for per game.
• Dean Cox – West Coast, 2.4 free kicks for per game. Cox also was awarded the most free kicks – 61.
• Todd Goldstein, Andrew Swallow, Matt Priddis, Scott Pendlebury, Adam Selwood, Sam Mitchell and Jude Bolton round out the top10.
• In terms of Rising Star eligible players Josh Toy had the highest free kicks for average of 2.2 per game, followed by Zac Clarke, Zac Smith, Allen Christensen and Luke Shuey.
• Over the past five years, Adam Selwood, Andrew Swallow, Angus Monfries, Chris Judd, Daniel Cross, Dean Brogan, Dean Cox, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood, Jude Bolton, Luke Ball, Luke Hodge, Marc Murphy, Matt Priddis, Nic Dal Santo, Nick Riewoldt and Sam Mitchell were amongst the top 15 in free kick for winners in multiple three seasons.
• The type of players that umpires award more free kicks too are ruckman and on-ballers considered inside ball winners.

In terms of individual players in 2011 on a per game basis the umpires enemies, free kicks against, were:

• Buddy. 53 free kicks against in 22 games. Buddy has lead the league in free kicks against in 3 out of the last 5 years and never finished better than 9^th in league.
• Ruckman Matthew Lobbe from Port led the league on an average basis giving up 2.6 free kicks per game over 10 games.
• Other ruckman Darren Jolley, Angus Graham, Brent Renouf, Brad Ottens, Ben Hudson, Dean Brogan and Shane Mumford are all in the top 10 for free kicks against.
• Scott Thompson is the only non ruckman/non Buddy player in the league to be in the top 10 against.
• In terms of Rising Star eligible players Andrew Browne had the highest free kicks against average of 1.9 per game, followed by Shaun McKernan, Tom Lynch, Reece Conca, Dylan Grimes, Sam Blease, Allen Christensen and Josh Toy.
• Ruckman especially undersized and back up ruckman, power forwards and tackling midfielders are the type of players that give away the most free kicks.

Overall there is strong relationship between players who commit to tackling and free kicks. Players that tackle win or commit free kicks either by holding the ball, pushes in the back or high contact.

The positive points players that tackle outweighs the points lost from being penalised extra free kicks. As an example Redden lost only a net 4 points per game from free kicks compared to 34 points extra from tackles.

When selecting you team, especially mid-priced players and rookies, look for those that tackle to de-risk these selections.

All numbers used for this article are from footywire.com.