Sub Affected Bargains?

At the start of 2011, we saw the introduction of the substitute vest. Though this rule came with a few positives, such as more TOG for players. The constant worrying about if your players would be facing a vest themselves, was nothing but stressful upon dream team coaches.

Along with the substitute vest came a new breed of AFL players. These players were to become the substitute “pin up boys” for their clubs, which would see their scoring out-put decrease; along with their relevance in dream team circles.But is all hope for these players to become a worthy dream team selection lost? I have looked back over 2011 at some dream team relevant players,whose averages have been hit heaviest due to the sub vest.

The Experienced

Alan Didak$363,700

AVG: 73
Sub Effected Games: 4
Sub Scores: 30, 26, 51, 47
Not including sub scores AVG: 84
Highest: 118 Lowest: 60

Alan Didak had an interrupted Pre-Season leading into 2011, which saw him unable to perform his shimmy at any point of the season, due to a year of underachieving. Didak was a substitute on 4 occasions for the Magpies, in a bid to monitor his workload back from injury.All reports said Didak has been training the house down this Pre-Season, but has recently sustaining a torn adductor muscle. Will likely miss the whole Nab Cup, but should be right for round 1.

Shane Tuck $350,200

AVG: 71
Sub Effected Games: 4
Sub Scores: 35, 31, 52, 51
Not including sub scores AVG: 90
Highest: 112 Lowest: 66

Tuck seems to get overlooked a fair bit by Hardwick, who is all about injecting youth in the Richmond line up. Tuck is someone who flies under the radar; hisconsistency is evident from his career average of 88. Tucks best season in dream team came in 2010 when he averaged 96. Priced at $350,200, Tuck is someone who like Lenny Hayes represents good value. If he was guaranteed more games this year than the 10 he played in 2011, then he could be a great stepping stone to a premium.

Nick Malceski $329,300

AVG:66
Sub Affected Games: 2
Sub Scores: 9, 25
Not including sub scores AVG:77
Highest:101Lowest: 51

Malceski has a history with his knees, we all know that. But when fit this guy is as good as any rebounding defender in the comp. When Tadgh Kennelly was absent from the swans team in 2010 Malceski averaged 86 and played the most games in a season for his career(24). I think Malceski should be able to mirror his 2010 average, as he is given greater responsibility.

Up and Comers

Andrew Gaff $322,900

AVG: 65
Sub Affected Games: 5
Sub Scores:53, 36, 48, 21, 29
Not including sub scores AVG: 81
Highest: 104 Lowest:37

Gaff, who was given the name Kermit by his teammates, could be seen as a promoter for the vest. Gaff wore the substitute on 5 occasions before going back to the WAFL to regain some match fitness. When returning to the Eagles line up in round 17, we saw what Gaff was capable of doing. In a purple patch from round 17-23 he averaged a whopping 104, making him great “Smokey” in 2012. Provided he can stay away from the vest.

Brad Ebert$308,100

AVG:62
Sub Affected Games: 5
Sub Scores: 34, 32, 30, 35, 47
Not including sub scores AVG: 74
Highest: 116 Lowest: 35

Brad Ebert too was given his fair share of opportunities as the substitute for the Eagles in 2011. But now finds a new home at Port Adelaide and possibly an increase role in the midfield. In 2010 Ebert averaged 81 playing mainly in the midfield, due to injuries hitting a lot of the experienced Eagles midfielders. But last year Ebert was forced to play the majority of his games on the HFF, along with doing a few run with roles. If he can become a predominant mid for Port, I would expect his average to go back towards 2010 standards and beyond.  But in saying that, he is playing for Port…

Kieren Jack $387,400

AVG: 78
Sub Affected Games: 2
Sub Scores: 50, 23
Not including sub scores AVG:  84
Highest: 123 Lowest: 53

Jack showed a lot of potential in 2010 with an average of 90, despite being known for his tagging roles. Jack was averaging 94 up until round 5 in 2011, before he got an ankle injury that kept him out for over a month. He returned for a patch from round 12-14 before taking a further week off as he re-injuring his ankle. Jack then came back again in round 16 and saw out the season without any more ankle problems, but didn’t get back to the sort of form from earlier in the year.

Allen Christensen $338,800

AVG:69
Sub Affected Games: 6
Sub Scores: 28, 50, 43, 23, 76, 30
Not including sub scores AVG:  85
Highest: 120Lowest: 47

There has been a lot of talk about Christensen so far this Pre Season. He’s been given FWD eligibility this year and looks a good buy as a mid pricer for $338,800.  Christensen had four 100+ games in 2011 and showed plenty of ability as he notched up 76 when coming on as a sub just before 3qt against Melbourne. Varcoes missing the first few rounds due to injury should see Christensen stake his claim for extended midfield time early on in 2012.

Reece Conca $274,100

AVG: 55
Sub Affected Games: 3
Sub Scores: 27, 50, 8
Not including sub scores AVG:  61
Highest: 99 Lowest:30

The Tigers pick 6 in the 2010 nab draft spent most of his 2011 season in the backline. But it is said now that Conca can expect to be given more opportunities in the midfield in 2012, which now makes him a tempting buy, since he has now become a defender in dream team. Conca had a purple patch from round 4-9 where he averaged 22.6 disposals and 83 in dream team. Given that the backline can offer a lower scoring output than other positions, he could be a cheap buy and push towards 75-80.

Third Year Breakout?

Mitchell Banner $351,700

AVG:71
Sub Affected Games:2
Sub Scores: 6, 28
Not including sub scores AVG:86
Highest: 122Lowest: 62

Who? Mitchell Banner is a name that most wouldn’t have even heard of, let alone be someone that people had considered picking up. Banner has shown glimpses of becoming DT relevant throughout 2010 and 2011, and applies for the 3^rd year breakout rule. If he can cement a spot in the Port line up, could be a good pick. But with the inclusion of Brad Ebert and Chad Wingard, Banners already shaky position in the line-up looks in jeopardy.

Ben Cunnington $260, 000

AVG: 53
Sub Affected Games: 4
Sub Scores:34, 19, 29, 33
Not including sub scores AVG:  61
Highest: 101Lowest: 30

Ben Cunnington too applies for the 3^rd year breakout rule in 2012, but hasn’t put up any big numbers except for his only ton (101) which came in the last round of 2011. Cunnington averaged 13 disposals, 6 tackles, but only 1 mark per game in 2011. He has been training hard so far this pre-season and has added a few kilograms to his frame. If he can find more outside ball and be a link in play, he is sure to lift his average at least 70 this year.

Jake Melksham $344,400

AVG: 69
Sub Affected Games: 3
Sub Scores: 19, 58, 42
Not including sub scores AVG:  74
Highest: 117 Lowest: 33

Melksham had 11 scores over 75 and 4 scores over 100 in 2011. Entering his third year, he has added some extra weight and looks ready to take the next step. Though he wasn’t effected greatly by the sub vest in 2011, it’s important to note that his average without the vest affected games last year, was a 15 point increase to his average in 2010 (59). If he can add a further 15 points to his average in 2012 he looks a good buy averaging around 90.

The only positive about these guys seeing the substitute vest on a regular basis in 2011. Is that they are now under-priced going into 2012, and have the ability to become potential bargains.  Sure they represent an element of risk, but that’s what this game is about.

Best of luck to all in 2012!

Twitter: @BILLZ_17