Versus – Round 7: Rockliff v Redden

With all of the talk about the RedRock combo; and little talk of a comparison between the two – I thought it was time the two young Lions were put up against each other. Both guys enjoyed massive breakout seasons in 2011, taking their averages from 87 and 79 respectively to 112 and 109 by the end of the year. Now typifying the ‘3rd year breakout’, Rocky and Redden will be looking to build on their ascendance and improve yet again in 2012.

With an improving Lions side, they will get every opportunity to continue their rise – whilst DT coaches start to notice them as stars on the big stage. But who has better value, consistency, durability and potential? Read on to find out more about the two young guns that are taking the AFL and Fantasy world by storm.

Tom Rockliff

Price: $554,200
Position: MID
Bye round: 11
Age: 22 this year

2011 Details
Avg: 112
Games played: 20
High Score: 151
Low Score: 59 (sub affected)
No. 100 + scores: 15
Expected avg for 2012: 116

Jack Redden

Price: $540,100
Position: MID
Bye round: 11
Age: 22 this year

2011 Details
Avg: 109.1
Games played: 22
High Score: 138
Low Score: 64
No. 100 + scores: 16
Expected avg for 2012: 114

Scoring Potential/Consistency

Rocky had an amazing breakout year in 2011, scoring 15 tons – with 10 of those 115 +. Assuming he continues to improve this season, not only will he be a reliable premium – but a solid captain choice most weeks. Considering it took him the first half of the year to truly ‘breakout’; we should pay more attention to his last 11 games – where he averaged 121 points, never once dropping under 100!

Redden scored more 100 + totals than Rock in 2011, however has a lower scoring ceiling. With so many of his points coming from +4’s; he should be able to comfortably increase his average if he can gather a few more possessions around the ground. I can easily see this happening as the 22 year old continues his progression. With an average of 115 from R11 – R23, he too has shown that he can take that step up to DT elite in 2012. Assuming Black and Rich still attract most of the tags, I expect the Rock to have the higher average this year –but not by much.

Durability

Redden has the edge over Rockliff in this match up as he hasn’t missed a game in the past 2 years, playing 44 out of a possible 44 games. Rocky on the other hand has missed 5 games during the same timeframe – playing 19 games in 2010; and 20 in 2011. His injury last year was due to a calf injury he sustained in R9 v North. Despite this, these figures should give coaches confidence that both players will be durable enough for a spot in your mids this season. Barring injury, I expect both to play another 20 + games in 2012 with Redden the more assured of the two.

Value

Knowing the extent of their improvement in 2011, the value of RedRock in 2012 is dwarfed by comparison. However given my prediction for their expected/potential average, both players still offer sound value for high-end premiums. If Rocky can increase his avg from 112 to 116, he is priced around 4 ppg below his potential (although based on the love for this guy, many think he could go for a lot more than 116 this year). Similarly, I think Red will increase his avg to around the 114/115 mark, therefore being priced 6 ppg below his potential. With an arguably easier draw in the second half of the year, I expect both players to start fairly strong; have a few so-so games; then come home with a wet sail from R13. Who has the best value? From my perspective it seems like Redden. However this all depends on your personal opinion on their expected output at different parts of the year.

Health/Fitness

In a recent interview with Tom Rockliff, he stated that Brisbane are keen to move forwards and make a play for the top 8 in 2012. Jack Redden and himself have been earmarked as key players in their quest to achieve their goal. From all reports both players are having an excellent preseason and should both factor in the NAB cup at some stage. With no minor injuries or niggles, RedRock is well poised to fire this season on the back of a problem free start to the year.

Team Draw

Both Lions will face the same draw in 2012, however this is far from irrelevant as they boast different records against certain teams. Starting off with Melbourne, Carlton and Gold Coast, the Lions have a reasonable but challenging draw. Playing 2011 Finalists Carlton and West Coast twice, they will be looking to their games against Gold Coast and their round 8 game v GWS to push their claims for top 8 honours.

Looking at the teams Brisbane play twice in 2012, consider these statistics from 2011:

Rockliff

Melbourne – 134
Carlton – 95
Gold Coast – 86 + 112
West Coast – 151
Western Bulldogs – 91

Redden

Melbourne – 119
Carlton – 109
Gold Coast – 64 + 118
West Coast – 113
Western Bulldogs – 82

From these stats it looks pretty even as both players seem to have scored similarly in all of these matches. It’s also positive to note that when they played Gold Coast for the second time, they improved their scores dramatically; which could be considered indicative of their strong finish to the year. If you put all of the scores together from above, Rocky has a slight edge. However these are only their 2011 scores against their double up opponents, not the rest of the competition.

Bye Week Relevance

Brisbane share the R11 bye with Adelaide, GWS, North, West Coast and the Bulldogs in 2012. The main clashes people may have in the midfield are Thompson, Sloane, Swallow, Priddis and Boyd. Aside from Thompson (due to Adelaide’s draw), I’d say RedRock are better options than all of these guys anyway – so it shouldn’t really affect your decision to pick them too much. Also, depending on how many GWS kids you have in your mids, you may want to keep your R11 premiums to 1 to start the year – with the option (nay, certainty) of upgrading to one in R12 when our best premiums (Swan, Pendles, Selwood & Barlow) will be missing.

The Numbers

Finally, as a quick summary I’ve put together some interesting stats on each player to outline their DT credentials.

Rockliff

• Scored 100 + 75% in 2011
• Scored 115 + 50% in 2011
• Averaged 121 between R13 – R24, scoring 100 + every week
• Take out his sub affected score of 59 in R9 and his avg is 115 for the year
• Is currently owned by around 4.5% of coaches

Redden

• Scored 100 + 73% in 2011
• Scored 115 + 45% in 2011
• Has not missed a game in 2 years
• Showed his consistency with an avg of 115 between R11 – R23
• Is currently owned by less than 2% of coaches

Conclusion

With all of the hype about these two emerging guns, opposition coaches will be more aware of them coming into the new season. Rockliff is arguably a better AFL player (and DTer) with a higher ceiling and much talked about leadership qualities to boot. Whilst Redden appears to have just as much potential, he will most likely spend his career in Rocky’s shadow. I can see a lot of coaches upgrading to one of the two after their R11 bye – or both if they don’t get a start in your team. Rocky is tipped to have a higher average, including a few massive scores – however comes with the risk of copping a tag most weeks. Redden should naturally improve and avoid being tagged most weeks; and given his likeliness of being extremely unique, he could be a real point of difference in your midfield make up for 2012. Whichever you choose, you won’t be disappointed.

Cheers for reading – Feedback appreciated.

McRath