Breakout?

Remember 2010… When things were simple?

Vests were something worn by grey haired ladies and trout fisherman.

The substitute rule was a cunning tactic used by wingmen across the country.

The Suns were an NBA team out of Phoenix and Garry Jr was racking up a million possies down at the Cattery.

Most importantly there were two young guys running around the Gabba named Tom Rockliff and Jack Redden. Little did we know that these two would turn out stellar years in 2011…moving them up into the elite category…..or did we?

What can we read in to their 2010 stats?

Can we use this model to predict the next breakouts in 2011?

I think we can… yes be warned, I am only looking at stats, but I believe that there are a lot of parallels between the REDROCK model of 2010, and a few of the young brigade of 2011.

Firstly let’s look at some stats of Red and Rock for 2010.

	Redden	Rockliff
Games Played (2010)	22	19
Games Played (Career)	32	21
Age	21	21
Disposals	18	23
K/H Ratio	50%	52%
Tackles	5.2	3.3
DT Ave (Full Year)	87	89
DT Ave (1st Half)	69	79
DT Ave (2nd Half)	90	94
Diff in  (1st/2nd)	21	15
Scores over 90	10	10
Scores under 90	12	9
% over 90	45%	53%
Average when under 90	60	69

So key takeouts..

• Generally in their second full season, with a handful of games in the first year
• Early 20s
• Average around 20 Disposals per game
• DT Average is in the 80’s
• Kick to handball ratio is around 50%
• They score over 90..around 45% of the time
• They finish the second half of the season like a FREIGHT TRAIN

Bearing that in mind, I have looked at the below 5 players based on their 2011 year:

Rory Sloane
Jack Trengove
Luke Shuey
Jack Steven
Jack Ziebell

So do they compare?

Do they follow the 2010 REDROCK model??

	Sloane	Trengove	Shuey	Steven	Ziebell	REDROCK
Age	21	21	21	21	21	21
Ave Disp	20	21	20	20	19	21
DT Ave	87	90	84	79	78	88

Ziebell is really the exception, stringing games together over the past 4 years..but injury has curtailed the amount that he has played.

Let’s look closer in 2011….

What are some of the key stats that jump out from the REDROCK model?

How do these Potential Breakout’s(PB’s) align?

	Sloane	Trengove	Shuey	Steven	Ziebell	REDROCK 2010
K/H Ratio	50%	52%	65%	56%	63%	50%-52%
Tackles	5	5	4.1	4	5	3.3-5.2
Scores over 90	7	11	8	8	9	10
Scores under 90	11	8	17	13	11	9-12
% Over 90	39%	58%	32%	38%	45%	45%-53%
Ave when under 90	74	68	71	68	60	60-69

The highlight indicates where the PB’s are above the REDROCK 2010 model.

Trengove stands out with scores over 90, 6 of these were over the ton.. 2 more than any other player.  Sloane and Shuey both showed great consistency with the highest numbers when they average less than 90. Ziebell has a good propensity of over 90 scores but bottoms out when he scores under 90 (bear in mind he did don either the green or red vest on 4 occasions across 2011)

Most importantly in 2010, something clicked Mid Season and both Rocky and Redden came home with a storm.. To me this is key… how do the PB’s perform across the year?

	Sloane	Trengove	Shuey	Steven	Ziebell	REDROCK 2010
DT Ave	87	90	84	79	77.8	87-89
First Half	81	87	79.5	77	67.8	69-79
Second Half	91	91	86	82	105.7	90-94
Diff	10	4	6.5	5	37.9	15-21
Kicks	10	11	13	11	12	9-12
First Half	11	11	12	9.2	9.4	7.4-11
Second Half	9	11	14	10	16	10-12.1
Diff	-2	0	2	0.8	6.6	1.1-2.6
Handballs	10	10	7	9	7	9-11
First Half	7	11	8	8.1	5.6	7.2-9.6
Second Half	14	9	7	9.2	8.1	10-12.8
Diff	7	-2	-1	1.1	2.5	3.2
Tackles	5	5	4	4	5	3.3-5.2
First Half	5	4	3.7	4.6	4.6	2.3-5.2
Second Half	5	6	4.4	3.4	5.4	4.2-5.4
Diff	0	2	0.7	-1.2	0.8	0.2-1.9

They all come home with a bang, I think Sloane and Ziebell are most notable. Sloane in that he really changed his kick to handball ratio (maybe modelling a more Scotty Thompson approach) and Ziebell well he just took off (he did have a score of 4 in round 22.. I have excluded this).

So lastly how do I rank them.. .well I use a variety of different metrics and then rank them accordingly…

	Sloane	Trengove	Shuey	Steven	Ziebell
Over 90s	3	1	5	4	2
Ave under 90	1	3	2	3	5
First Half	2	1	3	4	5
Second Half	2	3	4	5	1
PPTOG	1	3	5	4	2
Ceiling	3	4	2	5	1
Games<90	2	1	4	3	2
VFM	3	2	1	5	4
VFM on Finish	2	5	3	4	1
Total	19	23	29	37	23
Rank	1	3	4	5	2

For mine.. I think Sloane and Ziebell both most closely follow the REDROCK 2010 model. (Bear in mind that Ziebell is suspended for the first 2 rounds of 2012)

Does this mean that they deserve a spot in your starting MIDS? Only you can answer that.

Anybody that has spoke/heard/read anything from me knows that I am a big fan of Sloane and am actually gonna take the risk from the start. Those numbers are really juicy and we all know how the Crows draw looks. Sloane, Thompson or NVB are going to be getting some large numbers and I for one am gonna take the risk.

I had Stevens locked at the end of last year… but only under the condition that he was DPP…sadly not this year.

I think Trengove is a good unique if he fits your structure. Shuey is a jet and will probably prove the stats wrong.

So how about you…are you gonna have a crack at the next big BREAKOUT? And if so…who are you targeting?

Rainman

Follow me on twitter @robrainbird1 (aka Rainman)