Gentleman… Start your Engines! (Who is making up your Engine Room?)

Time to look at the Engine Room… the Heart of DT.

This article will look at what I consider the top 12 most talked about or should be talked about players. (The selection of players itself will generate some debate, and yes I am aware that I haven’t included Barlow or Hayes but McRath has already done a ripper article on that!)

When looking at Premo Mid’s the question that always gets raised do you want Consistency or High Ceiling?

Are you happy to take 110 every week or do you want the 140’s balanced with the occasional 100. Everyone takes a different approach. So how do you separate the SUPER GUNS from the Couldabeens.

How do you decide who to start with and who are upgrade targets?

Most teams will start with either 3 or 4 of these, given that Underpriced Premos (Barlow, Hayes) will make up most teams number 4 or 5.

Also bear in mind how the Byes play out this year…you don’t want any more than 2 guns out each round if you are serious about the car!

Some basic stats to start with:

Consistency

Premo	Bye	$$	2011 Ave	GP	100+	110+	120+	Games under 100	Ave when under 100
Swan	12	$598,300	121	24	18	16	12	6	85
Pendles	12	$576,900	117	25	22	13	13	3	91
Boyd	11	$573,800	116	22	17	14	9	5	86
Rockliff	11	$554,200	114	20	15	13	7	5	85
Murphy	13	$551,300	112	24	18	15	8	6	94
Ablett	13	$554,700	112	20	12	10	7	8	90
Mitchell	13	$554,000	112	23	17	14	8	6	81
Selwood	11	$540,600	109	20	14	10	7	6	86
Thompson	11	$538,500	109	22	15	11	8	7	79
Redden	11	$540,100	109	22	16	15	4	6	88
Priddis	11	$521,400	105	25	14	11	5	11	89
Swallow	11	$491,500	99	22	12	10	3	10	76

Pendles jumps out scoring over the ton 88% of the time. Swan, Boyd, Rocky and Murph raised their bat over 75% of games that they played in. Sammy, Redden and Selwood  were all over 70%, with the rest of the guys under that.

For the times that the guns do not fire and score under 100, Ablett, Murphy and Pendles average over 90…talking to how consistent they are..the others don’t lag too far behind…Worryingly both Swallow and Priddis in 2011 regularly scored under 100. Too often for my liking.

Going Large

But let’s be serious, these guys need to average 110+ and more like 120+ (but maybe I am greedy).

So when they score a 100… How often do they turn that into 120+ and how large do they go?

Premo	100s into 120s	Ceiling
Swan	66.7%	171
Pendles	59.1%	166
Ablett	58.3%	175
Thompson	53.3%	151
Boyd	52.9%	162
Selwood	50.0%	178
Mitchell	47.1%	137
Rockliff	46.7%	151
Murphy	44.4%	145
Priddis	35.7%	150
Swallow	25.0%	142
Redden	25.0%	138

Swanny,  Pendles and Ablett in particular score big and score big often. Thommo, Boyd and Selwood score over 120 half the time they hit the ton.

Ablett smashed out 130+ on 5 occasions and Swanny did 4, Pendles, Boyd, Rocky and Thommo did it 3 times….so they know how to score… 

Reliability

How reliable are these guys and will they stay on the park.

Premo	2011 Ave	2010 Ave	2009 Ave	3 Yr Ave	2010 to 2011	Age
Swan	121	123	119	121	-2%	27
Ablett	112	119	118	116	-6%	27
Boyd	116	115	104	112	1%	29
Pendles	117	107	98	107	9%	24
Selwood	109	107	103	106	2%	23
Murphy	112	100	103	105	11%	24
Mitchell	112	100	102	105	11%	29
Thompson	109	96	98	101	12%	28
Rockliffe	114	87		101	24%	21
Priddis	105	94	96	98	10%	26
Swallow	99	99	90	96	0%	24
Redden	109	79		94	28%	21

In the main all of the above had a great 2011 averaging higher than their 3 year average, Red and Rock had breakout years, Murphy, Pendles and Priddis showed us why they are emerging if not already super stars…certainly the first 2 are. Sammy and Thommo showed age is no barrier. Swan, Ablett and Boyd showed why they are champions.

Age may come into play with older legs and therefore potential increased rotations. It is safe to assume that Swanny and Pendles may have a trip to Arizona half way through the year…given Swan’s output in the latter half of last year… this can only be a good thing.

Most of these guys play over 80% game time, with only Rockliff (73%) and Selwood (65%) playing less than that. If we assume increased game time means increased score…big upside for these 2.

The Draw

What does 2012 hold?

The below table looks at average based on 2011 scores before and after their respective byes. Where players are up against GWS I have used GC as an average. In Ablett’s case I have used his yearly average as his proposed score against GWS.

Premo	Before Bye	After Bye	Diff
Ablett	120.00	113.00	-7.00
Swan	116.18	120.10	3.92
Selwood	113.50	108.20	-5.30
Murphy	113.40	111.70	-1.70
Mitchell	113.00	108.50	-4.50
Rockliff	112.80	119.50	6.70
Thompson	112.10	112.50	0.40
Pendles	111.80	124.00	12.20
Boyd	109.20	119.40	10.20
Redden	103.90	112.60	8.70

This does not take into account any improvement … I think that most of these players will improve by at least 5% and that is not factored in.

A few of these guys easy draws has been well publicised, particularly Thommo and looks like a good consistent bet for the year.

Value for Money

Here is my spin on how all of the above rate and different metrics as to how I have ranked them.

Firstly…given what I have looked at.. I have removed Priddis and Swallow… their numbers simply do not stack up as well as some of the others.

Here are the metrics that I have used and how I would rank them.

Premo	Boyd	Pendles	Selwood	Murphy	Rockliff	Swan	Ablett	Thompson	Mitchell	Redden
Over 100s	2	1	8	3	3	3	10	9	6	7
Games <100 Ave	5	2	5	1	6	6	3	8	7	4
110+%	4	7	8	5	3	2	8	8	6	1
%120 of 100s	5	2	6	9	8	1	3	4	7	10
PPTOG	7	4	1	7	2	3	5	9	6	8
Ceiling	5	4	1	7	6	3	2	6	9	8
Value for $$	7	3	10	2	1	5	8	4	6	9
Start Ave	9	8	3	4	6	2	1	7	5	10
Finish Ave	4	1	10	8	3	2	5	7	9	6
Total	48	32	52	46	38	27	45	62	61	63
Rank	6	2	7	5	3	1	4	9	8	10

Dane Swan

What is there left to say… he is DT gold.

(refer DoDT Article)

Pros – He scores consistently and consistently BIG. All of his numbers stack up. Favourable Bye

Cons – He is expensive…Not sure how many will start with him but will definitely be in every ones calculations at some stage. What will his body do?… will he be sent to Arizona again to get him through the year?

Starter or Upgrade:  Either…Certainly performs better in the back half of the year and should see his price fall across the early rounds unless he really smashes it… But is that worth missing out on the point he may bring in over that time?

Rating: 10/10

Scott Pendlebury

I made the mistake last year of not starting with him based on his stupid dreadlocks…DOH! Thankfully hair seems to be under control this year.

Pros – He is a Rolls Royce, He gets A LOT of the ball, he tackles, he is a very consistent scorer. He doesn’t just do 100’s he does 120+ (13 times last year) the most of anyone.

Cons – Not a lot, I think this guy will be the number 1 Mid this year. You could argue that he may have some more competition for the pill this year with Swanny, Daisy, Ball, Sidebum, Beams etc rotating through.. But really cannot see it affecting him.

Starter or Upgrade: Definitely should finish the year better based on the teams that he plays and traditionally finishes the year around 4 points higher than the start… but as per Swan… think you need to have one of them in your team from the get go

Rating 9.5/10

Tom Rockliff

AS we know came of age last year . He gets the pill and is a very DT friendly player. He tackles like a hungry Greco Roman searching for a chip.

Pros – Has all of the right ingredients to be a super star. In 2011 had limited time on ground due to rotations and still pumped out great numbers., with a bigger tank you have to think that will only improve.

Cons – Can he repeat it? That is the big punt. Will last year’s efforts see him get more attention this year?

Starter or Upgrade: I am gonna hold on Rocky and see what the first half of his season brings… he should finish with a wet sail… my figures tell me average 120+ for his last half of the year

Rating: 8.5/10

Gary Ablett Jr

Pretty much read comments above for Swanny. Between the 2 of them, they are the greatest DT players we have ever seen.

Pros – He plays in one of the bottom 2 teams and just finds it, he kicks goals, he tackles, he is a ball magnet. He can score BIG, Super BIG

Cons – He doesn’t get to play against Gold Coast!

Starter or Upgrade: LOCK, LOCK, LOCK…There are not gonna be  many teams that don’t have him.  Here is a hint. Select Him.

Rating: 10/10

Marc Murphy

The boy can play…that is undoubted. Read DoDT Article.

Pros – In arguably the best midfield in the comp, he is the out rider, kicks a lot, kicks goals and… wel….l is just a gun.  Super consistent, scores over the ton 18 times last year.

Cons – Has a head like a tennis ball. Gibbsy proposed move to the mids may impact his scoring…but I am banking on it not. He shares the Bye with Ablett and Sammy Mitchell…so selecting all 3 would be very tough.

Starter or Upgrade: Starter for mine, I like the Blues early draw and think he may jump out of the blocks.

Rating: 8/10

Matthew Boyd

Is he the forgotten man of this year?

Pros – He is a DT Demi god…Doesn’t quite hit the heights of Swanny or GAJ but goes bloody close. Averaged over 110 each year for the last 3 years. Averages more points when the doggies lose (lets face it, they will probably lose more than they win)

Cons– High Starting Price, New Coach (what impact will this have?)Shares round 11 bye with a lot of others

Starter or Upgrade: Upgrade target for me…want to see that he still has it (may cost me some points) my figures point to a 10 point increase in the back part of the season.

Rating: 9/10

Joel Selwood

Refer DoDT article again. Awesome player..and now Captain.

Pros – Likes to get in and get the pill and gets a lot of it. Umps love him and his rubber legs. His Time on ground was really low last year and his numbers were still bloody good, can only expect this to go up.

Cons – Effect of the captaincy? There may be better value for money. Round 11 BYE

Starter or Upgrade: Will definitely start better than he finishes, based on history and what his drawer looks like. I reckon it is between him and Murph if you are going for that super consistent MID that may elevate them to superstardom.

Rating: 8/10

Sam Mitchell

DoDT article again. Lightning Hands, Sammy Everywhere.

Pros-Super consistent, Fantastic Year last year. Plays for the DT friendly hawks.

Cons– Age? At 29 is the oldest of this group. Took a game off last year to play with his kids…cmon Sammy how does that help us?

Starter or Upgrade: If I was gonna take him it would be as a starter, aging legs may see him rested later in the year depending on how happy a team they are at Hawthorn.

Rating: 8/10

Scott Thompson

Those that didn’t have him last year regretted it.

Pros– His Draw… well publicised, plays GC, GWS and PA twice….will definitely keep the stats boys busy. Super Consistent and has pumped out some huge scores

Cons-Age is 28, like Sammy he may get rested. Handballs a lot, but gets enough of it to justify though. Round 11 BYE

Starter or Upgrade: Either, super consistent and should be very steady during the year. I have no doubt he will average 110 ish and you could definitely do worse.

Rating: 8/10

Jack Redden

Absolute breakout year.  The Jenna Jamison of the group….Loves a tackle!

Pros– He has all the makings of a superstar. Most teams will go with Rocky, so could be a good point of difference. When he scroes a 100 he almost always turns it into 110+

Cons– Like Rocky, can he back it up? Not as flashy as Rocky, Maybe better options for the $$

Starter or Upgrade: Will come home strong… I am predicting an 8 point differential and averaging around 116 for the latter part of the year.

Rating: 8/10

Just as a point of difference….one guy that I haven’t looked at is Leigh Montagna… I just wonder with his good mate Lenny back , will he capture the 2009 and 2010 form?…maybe just maybe.

So there you have it… my take on the Premos and thoughts on what the year may look like. I am still undecided on my set up but will certainly have Pendles, Ablett and Murph….

Anyway, now open the debate on who isn’t in there, who should be, who is your smokie?

So who is starting in your engine room?

Start the motors all… and let’s roll!

Cheers and Happy DTing!