The best MID/FWD Dual Position Players

Rainman back and this time looking at the young MID/FWD DPP’s that have everyone excited and how their numbers stack up!

Now when I went to school the guys that could play footy were called Michael, Garry, Jason, Steve…. but now days not so much… maybe it is because they were teased so much at school but the focus of the analysis is around; Dayne, Steele, Mitch, Dustin,Jordan and 2 guys with reasonably normal names Nathan and David. (No Offence to all of the rest of the Steele’s out there… Remington.. I am looking at you)

Are these guys worth choosing ahead of proven dpp premos like Goodes, Pav, ROK, Chappy etc… that I can’t answer but I can give you some guidance on who out of the new breed that you should choose.

So who stacks up out of:

• Beams
• Fyfe
• Martin
• Robinson
• Zaha
• Lewis
• Sidebottom

Good Question… I am glad you asked..

Now depending on who you listen to, these guys are all:

a) Primed for more time in the midfield this year
b) Training their boots off in the Pre Season
c) Carrying an injury.
d) All of the above

This analysis isn’t buying into any of that, but simply looking at last years performance and some predictions about the year ahead.

Firstly..these guys are listed as FWD’s primarily (As in that is the spot that we are gonna pick them, not many will use any of these guys in their MID’s).. so do they perform like FWD’s should and kick scores?

• Martin 11%
• Zaha 10%
• Beams 9%
• Sidebottom 7%
• Fyfe 6%
• Robinson 4%
• Lewis 4%

Does that tell us anything… probably not… any goals are a bonus.. but that applies to any MID.. and lets face it that is what these guys are… thankfully for us though they are dressed up as FWD’s… Happy Days!

In 2011 how many of these consistently scored over 100… which is what we are looking at for a Premo

• Beams 57% (8) + 2 over 90
• Lewis 50% (11) + 1 over 90
• Fyfe 48% (10) + 6 over 90
• Zaha 39% (9) + 2 over 90
• Martin 36% (8) + 5 over 90
• Robinson 35% (8) + 7 over 90
• Sidebottom 25% (6) + 5 over 90

Fyfe and Beams jump out with over 3/4 of their games scoring over 90 (Beams only played 14 games) with Robinson not far behind at 67%

I have also looked at each players “Purple Patch” for this I have looked at where a player has strung together consecutive games where they have scored higher than their yearly average.

Average over that period, No# of games

• Fyfe 120 (3 Games)
• Beams 119 (6)
• Martin 113 (5)
• Lewis 110 (4)
• Robinson 107 (3)
• Zaha 105 (3)
• Sidebottom 99 (3)

Beams was on a very sweet run and this is reflected with those 6 games being 23.9 points higher than his average… Dustin Martin was 24.1 points higher, With Fyfe at 21.5 over… you can work out the rest of the guys.

As DT officianados… one stat that we always look at for our ball magents is Kick to Handball ratio (although Mitchell, Thompson and Swallow are starting to prove that you get enough of the pill this stat starts to pale)…anyhoo, below is the split for disposal… in brackets next to it is % of points that are made up of marks.

Martin	64/36	12%
Robinson	59/41	17%
Zaha	59/41	15%
Sidebottom	56/44	18%
Lewis	54/46	19%
Beams	52/48	16%
Fyfe	48/52	16%

Now to my favourite stat… looking at the teams that the above play twice across 2012… also have included their average against GC last year..(interestingly none of these guys play GC or GWS twice).. so read GC average as what i would apply for GWS.

	Ave	Diff to Ave
Martin	75	(-14.3)	GC	95
Zaha	98	(+8.8)	GC	72
Sidebottom	88	(+2.3)	GC	94
Fyfe	101	(+2.1)	GC	104
Robinson	88	(-3.7)	GC	99
Beams	75	(-20.1)	GC	DNP
Lewis	91	(+0.4)	GC	103

How do you decide whether these guys are starters from the get go or an upgrade target down the track. Lets look at whether they are your Black Caviar’s or more your Makybe Diva’s…

	First Half	Second Half	(Diff)
Martin	94.6	85.2	(-9.4)
Zaha	80.6	95.2	(+14.6)
Sidebottom	89.2	83.2	(-6.0)
Fyfe	99.2	97.8	(-1.4)
Robinson	89.7	93.7	(+4.0)
Beams	88.3	101.9	(+13.6)
Lewis	75.4	102.9	(+27.5)

Jordan Lewis came home with a wet sail, as did Zaha and Beams.. the rest of the guys were reasonably consistent… and lets face it Dustin could never live up to all the Chuck Norris comparisons.

From a scoring potential.. all of these guys have an enormous ceiling ranging from 128 to 142… so the man crush can be justified.

Lastly.. I have looked at price… I have simply calculated what I consider their points per dollar (PPD) .. (message me if you want the calcs).. on average at the start of the year against my predicted average PPD at the end of the year (Bear in mind there are a lot of assumptions here)

Here the higher number is better.

	Start	Finish
Martin	2.02	1.88
Zaha	2.04	2.09
Sidebottom	1.99	2.02
Fyfe	2.02	2.04
Robinson	2.01	1.98
Beams	1.89	1.71
Lewis	2.04	2.05

(Bear in mind the above is just using the starting price for 2012… we know prices will fluctate markedly and this therefore affects someone like Beams adversely)

So … are they worth it?

For me… yeah I think that a couple of them are.

Before this analysis I had Martin and Zaha locked in with Buddy and Big Trav in the FWD line of “The Rainmen”…now… well.. I really like Fyfe’s consistency, Robbo starts to become more selectable and Lewis becomes a delicious smokie. Beams will be an upgrade if the planets align and the Tatts dont become infected.

Anyway.. hope you enjoy the read and it generates some discussion.

Rainman