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Dream Team Stock Market – R20

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips.

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

Wow, last weekend was one of the biggest I’ve seen for Dream Team scores, with some hefty numbers popping up around the traps. Congrats to the coaches out there who maxed out over 2600 – brilliant! The best bit is that the last few weeks have made those miserable 1900-par rounds magically disappear from memory, until I reminded everyone just then…

Good footy to be had too. West Coast consigned the Doggies to a tough loss in a tight finish, with Razor Ray typically and inexplicably asserting his presence at crucial points to affect the game. Our few Melbourne ‘premiums’ had an atrocious day out, with none cracking the ton. With the Bickley-coached Crows getting over Port, should we expect to see Viney’s Dees upset Carlton this weekend?

Homework is the key at this point. Check out your league’s likely finals draw and look at how it might pan out. You’ll soon work out how you’re going to go, whether you’ll go through to the Prelims, whether you may have to take the double chance, etc. This will help you map out your finals campaign and help you plan how to best utilise your remaining trades.

With numerous players topping 120+ scores, we had a full bear market this week. A few sliders not only arrested their forecast price falls, but managed to turn their value movement positive, eg Jelwood and Priddis. With such growth across most stocks, the Bargains list is sadly very thin this week. Alrighty then, let’s crunch some numbers!

Sell, Sell, Sell

All of these rooks have been good cash cows for us this season. They have peaked and are forecast to stabilise in value for the rest of the year. The stark reality in our fantasy football world is that they aren’t premiums who will return consistent 90+ scores for us, making them fair game for a cash-in downgrade or a trade-plus-cash upgrade, as long as you aren’t relying on these guys exclusively for cover.

Nick Lower $309,100 UP$7,000 (UP$216,600) BE110. Yes, Lower does run through the middle and yes, he has racked up a few big numbers, but apart from that huge 130, his recent scoring range is 60-70. His value chart shows a couple of moderate bell curves and forecast to plateau at the $300k mark after a projected drop of $5,100 next week.

  • Stock tip: Sell any time now and gain a massive $210k+.

Trent McKenzie $301,600 DOWN$11,900 (UP$204,000) BE102. The Cannon has produced a last five of 64, 72, 81, 93, 122. While this is a very good scoring range, Trent’s output has been declining steadily, which is reflected in his value. With a BE of 102 this week, he is projected to drop $7,500 next week, following a drop of $11,900 this week. His forecast value is set to steady at just under $300k.

  • Stock tip: Plump for offloading this week for a delicious $204k gain.

Matthew Wright $237,500 UP$3,200 (UP$145,000) BE76. Wright has shown glimpses of good DT scoring, making him a handy pickup for those coaches who have him, with recent scores of 62, 50, 86, 22 and 99. If you are looking at cashing in, his long-term forecast value will stay at around the $230k mark.

  • Stock tip: Bank a substantial $145,000 if you sell this week.

Tom Liberatore $227,800 DOWN$5,700 (UP$135,300) BE71. We expected much from lil’ Libba after a very strong start to the season, but he disappeared for a while to return with 44 and 66. To be fair, he was recalled for tough games against Sydney and West Coast. A look at his forecast shows his value should stay at around $220k+ for the rest of the season.

  • Stock tip: Cash him in this week and gain a respectable $135,300.

Dion Prestia $250,400 UP$13,700 (UP$121,900) BE59. Prestia’s last five have actually been pretty decent: 72, 67, 92, 74 and 49. His slightly increased output and relative consistency have seen his value peaking in time for a finals trading flurry. His value is forecast to taper off to $230k by R24, so he is peaking.

  • Stock tip: A handy $121k earner if sold off this week.

On The Up

Andrew Gaff $232,700 UP$43,300 (UP$84,200) BE7. Gaffy popped another ton last weekend against the Doggies in his best game so far this season. That big effort has his value skyrocketing yet again, with a projected rise of $18,000 next week and a forecast top-out at $260k after R21. Considering the opportunities Worsfold is giving him at the moment, he may provide excellent cover for the fortunate 5% of coaches who have hung on to him.

  • Stock tip: Sell after R21 and put away a tidy $110k.

Keiran Harper $191,500 UP$19,400 (UP$99,000) BE20. The slow-burning Harper still has a bit of earning left in him with a 77 in his rolling average. He has produced a decent scoring range in the 50s and 60s in his last four. His price is forecast to peak after R20 at just over $200k with a projected increase of $10,100 next week, making him an almost-ready-to-trade commodity.

  • Stock tip: A neat gain of around $110k if sold next week.

Hayden Jolly $183,800 UP$18,600 (UP$86,200) BE41. After only five games, Jolly has shot up to $183,300 and is forecast to top out at $210k+ in R24. His graph shows a steady increase and if the kid gets a few more games, he’ll soon be ready to flip for a tidy profit.

  • Stock tip: Sell after R21 for $200k and gain a quick-fire $100k+.

On The Slide

Matt Suckling $343,400 DOWN$25,100 (UP$130,800) BE132. Playing in the downpour and slush out west last weekend clearly did not suit Suckling (or Birchall), and a last three of 63, 76 and 83 has his value dropping off with a projected fall of $12,600 next week. We know what a high ceiling he has and the Hawks have a decent run over the next few rounds. This makes Suckers a prime upgrade target for the first weekend of finals!

  • Stock tip: Buy after R20 for around $330k.

Stefan Martin $355,700 DOWN$7,500 (UP$210,400) BE124. Don’t be too worried about Martin’s 56 against a rampant Geelong; his five previous to that were 101, 113, 92, 99 and 114. His value is projected to drop by $10,100 next week and, interestingly, is forecast to bottom out at $320k by R24. Like the Hawks, the Dees have a reasonable DT finals run – West Coast, Richmond, Gold Coast and Port. He’s a unique option who has proven to be pretty reliable with his scoring.

  • Stock tip: Bring him in next week for $345k-ish.

Blue Chip Bargains

Grant Birchall $334,900 DOWN$12,600 (UP$13,600) BE106. He was on the Sliders list last week and he looks to have bottomed out, making Birch a very good ‘in’ if you need to pull a DEF upgrade this week. With an average of 90, he is not likely to let you down. Pair him up with Suckling in your back line and you have two Hawks defenders who will play kick-to-kick all day long…

  • Stock tip: Get on now or next week for around his current $335k.

Jed Adcock $263,800 (UP$1,300) BE33. Jed looks like he’s getting his touch back after a 96 and 79 in his last two outings and spending some time in the middle in his last game. If you trust him to maintain or better his current average of 83 for the rest of the season, his value is down to just about his starting price and his low BE of 33 has his projected increase estimated at $13,100 next week.

  • Stock tip: Buy this week before his value shoots up next week.

In Review

Last call folks, here we are at our last league game! If you’re looking at trading this week, it should only be to set your team up for your finals run or if you’ve copped an LTI. If you’ve been desperately hanging on to your trades for the finals, hopefully your dogged determination will pay off over the next few weeks. If you’ve been trigger-happy and are starting to run out of trades, then I fear that you may be in for a bit of pain!

Have a good read and re-read of Roy’s Trade Talk and the associated chatter and run the numbers over some of the names in this analysis to line up your ins and outs. You should be in the midst of your plan of attack for the finals, so stick to your guns. Make sure that every single trade counts to your team’s success and good luck!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT

 

 

 

Kev, aka TeeTee, has been contributing to DT Talk for the last couple of years. Top bloke and top DTer on top of it. Follow him on Twitter: @TeeTeeDT.

68 Comments

68 Comments

  1. Avatar

    tom

    August 4, 2011 at 9:13 am

    Hey guys what does everyone think about Knights as a 7th forward? under his new coach last week he scored 114 and i’m wondering if this is a sign of things to come. What does everyone think about him and what will he average from here on in as he is only 255k and looks like a bargain. Thanks.

    • Avatar

      The13yrOldDTLegend

      August 4, 2011 at 9:20 am

      Roy might have bit the right bullet, but he has a new role under new coach, but now we need to hope he’s stays there! He will probabaly average 90ish.

      • Avatar

        tom

        August 4, 2011 at 9:30 am

        Yeah thats what i’m thinking, if he can average 90 or so that would be great as a 7th forward. I think i will take a punt on him as it will allow me to go poupolo to fisher and keep fisher as an 8th defender to cover for enright and gibbs when they have their byes in rounds 22 and23.

        • Avatar

          The13yrOldDTLegend

          August 4, 2011 at 9:32 am

          Yeh thats good:)

  2. Avatar

    Blue boy

    August 4, 2011 at 9:17 am

    Top Article

    I still need to trade Heath Shaw out and your article really got me thinking wether i should trade to Birchall this week or wait a week and get Suckling next week.

    Any one reckon ones a better choice than the other??

    • Avatar

      The13yrOldDTLegend

      August 4, 2011 at 9:21 am

      Suckling is a gem! If you make it To grand finals they play Goldcoast, either one would be great….

      • Avatar

        Albert Lloyd

        August 4, 2011 at 12:45 pm

        3 average scores in a row does not a gem make.

  3. Avatar

    The13yrOldDTLegend

    August 4, 2011 at 9:30 am

    My finals trade talk:

    Round 22: Bartel to Mitchell
    Chapman to best foward

    Round24: Heppel to Birchall

    • Avatar

      TheColonel

      August 4, 2011 at 12:34 pm

      Yeh good trades.
      I think it is imperative you head into the finals with atleast 3-4 trades left and some decent coin.

      • Avatar

        Albert Lloyd

        August 4, 2011 at 1:10 pm

        4 trades and 165K enough KFC Man?

        ;)

        • Avatar

          TheColonel

          August 4, 2011 at 3:00 pm

          No

    • Avatar

      Blue boys

      August 4, 2011 at 1:06 pm

      Very interesting you want to trade Chappy to the “best forward”.
      Chapman has had a quieter year but is still 4th of ave/game in the forward………only 0.21ppg behind Fyfe, who is 2nd on the list!!!
      So Fyfe has had a great year and Chappy a sh*t one and they basically averaging the same………..amazing what expectation does to peoples vision!!!

      • Avatar

        Ingoes

        August 4, 2011 at 3:03 pm

        Fyfe has been consistent, doesn’t really know how to score under 90.

        Chappy was like that last year except it was 100. This year he’s done a serviceable impression of a slapper’s g-string – up and down a lot.

        A player’s average only tells you so much

        • Avatar

          Blue boys

          August 4, 2011 at 8:45 pm

          @Ingoes
          Not sure you have checked their stats mate, they are fairly similar this year.
          Both 9 x 100’s, both have score under 90 4 times.

          Agree Chapman has been disappointing this year but thats due to expectation, and Fyfe has been very good.
          Personally i wouldn’t trade Chapman out and not really sure who this bloke was expecting to trade him too!!!

          Not sure what more you want from an average mate, aren’t we all trying to pick the blokes with the highest average per game??!!

  4. Avatar

    MyNameIsJoel

    August 4, 2011 at 9:55 am

    1 trade left with $79700 left. I have:

    Def: Gibbs, Goddard, Delidio, Enright, Fisher, Heppel, Adcock (Waters, Lower, Puopolo)
    Mids: Swan, Boyd, Dal Santo, Thompson, Ablett, Hodge (Bartel, Mzungu, Hibberd)
    Ruck: Cox, Smith (Lobbe, McCulloch)
    Fwd: Fyfe, Pavlich, Franklin, Goodes, Petrie, Sylvia, Knights (Smith, Lynch, Howe)
    My Def and mids both have 1 premium on the bench but i dont like the thought of having zac smith in finals.

    Thinking:
    Smith – Mumford / Luenberger / McEvoy / Hille
    or
    Sylvia / to better premo
    or
    Lynch / Howe – someone averaging mid 70’s
    Thoughts?

    • Avatar

      Hill End

      August 4, 2011 at 11:02 am

      Sylvia – O’Keefe

    • Avatar

      Sully23

      August 4, 2011 at 11:14 am

      Smith to Mumford for me. Mummy has the best run home out of the rucks and cheaper than McEvoy. Good chance Sylvia will be let back in the midfield without Bailey and has a good finals run. Besides his 72 was pretty good considering the thumping they got!

      • Avatar

        MyNameIsJoel

        August 4, 2011 at 12:06 pm

        Yeh I was thinking Mumfy is the best option. I just dont want to get to the finals and play someone with goldstein, sandy or mcevoy and not have anyone that can compete with them. Mumfy can pop out some big scores where as smith is limited to 60’s to 80’s and as to go all the way i think i need something better. He’s pretty unique as well as only 4% of teams have him.

        • Avatar

          Sully23

          August 4, 2011 at 2:22 pm

          He’s been good of late too

  5. Avatar

    Hill End

    August 4, 2011 at 10:55 am

    FMDT – No Boyd ($417), Gablet($393) and need a win

    Which of the two should I trade out and which of the following would you select: ($50k in bank)

    1) Redden
    2) Priddis
    3) Mitchell
    4) Other

    Currently mids – Swan, Pendles, Dal Santo, Gibbs (Mzunga, Jacobs & Bennell)

    Thank you

    • Avatar

      Deezy7

      August 4, 2011 at 11:32 am

      If u NEED a win, I’d go unique to ensure your getting free points.

      Redden is hugely underrated, I’d pick him up if I was you!

  6. Avatar

    Deezy7

    August 4, 2011 at 11:32 am

    Quick question gents….

    Time for Lower to go I think…. Birchall or Broughton or even Sammy Fish? 293K in the bank…

    • Avatar

      ACER

      August 4, 2011 at 12:28 pm

      Broughton

  7. Slappers

    Slappers

    August 4, 2011 at 12:30 pm

    Shaw – Fisher
    Shaw – Birchall

    which one does everyone think?

    • Avatar

      TheColonel

      August 4, 2011 at 12:36 pm

      Fisher – Proven gun that is rarely off song.
      Birchall- A bit of a passenger… wont go to well when Hawks aren’t playing well. Same with Suckling.

      • Slappers

        Slappers

        August 4, 2011 at 12:40 pm

        so fisher it is then…. ha ha

  8. Avatar

    Dockerdays

    August 4, 2011 at 12:42 pm

    What are you guys thoughts on Brady Rawlings, with scores hovering around the 40s in the last 3 weeks is it time to trade him considering bye in rd 21?

    4 trades left and $206,100 in the bank

    Gibbs Goddard Delidio Birchall Rawlings Lower Hibberd (B Smith Toy Golby)

    Gonna go Hibberd to Fisher this week and see how rawlings scores before finals.

    Thanks

    • Avatar

      Albert Lloyd

      August 4, 2011 at 12:44 pm

      Never understood the fascination with Rawlings.

      Finals bye and never been an out and out premium. Always teased but never been there in the past and prob never will.

      • Avatar

        Dockerdays

        August 4, 2011 at 1:37 pm

        Thanks for your help!

        • Avatar

          Albert Lloyd

          August 4, 2011 at 1:42 pm

          Yeah your plan seems ok, you’re probably gonna have to get rid of Rawlings sooner or later aswell considering your weak bench.

  9. Avatar

    Milk_Lizard

    August 4, 2011 at 1:10 pm

    Lower > Adcock. Only 3 trades left, will be my 8th Back but will need him playing every week due to finals.

    Seems like a no brainer…

    • Avatar

      Milk_Lizard

      August 4, 2011 at 1:10 pm

      Would be playing Buckley each week if I don’t do the trade.

    • Avatar

      Albert Lloyd

      August 4, 2011 at 1:18 pm

      Got Rawlings, Enright, Gibbs and Heppell eh?

      • Avatar

        Milk_Lizard

        August 4, 2011 at 1:21 pm

        No I’ve got A.Swallow in the midfield that a DPP backman will be covering, the other 3 I do have.

        • Avatar

          Albert Lloyd

          August 4, 2011 at 1:24 pm

          ohhhhhhh

          • Avatar

            Milk_Lizard

            August 4, 2011 at 1:28 pm

            Good feedback

          • Avatar

            Albert Lloyd

            August 4, 2011 at 1:40 pm

            what did you want me to say

          • Avatar

            Milk_Lizard

            August 4, 2011 at 1:49 pm

            Something feedbacky. I didn’t really ask a question did I… Well played sir.

  10. Avatar

    roundsandy

    August 4, 2011 at 2:00 pm

    Can somebody post the dt finals structure or direct me to where I can find it

    • Avatar

      Milk_Lizard

      August 4, 2011 at 2:06 pm

      It’s exactly the same as the AFL finals: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_finals_system

      • Avatar

        TheColonel

        August 4, 2011 at 3:01 pm

        though you get an extra four trades if you make the final 8.

        • Avatar

          Albert Lloyd

          August 4, 2011 at 3:11 pm

          Top 4 numbskull

          • Avatar

            TheColonel

            August 4, 2011 at 4:25 pm

            jeeze. see even i am not up to date with the rules of dreamteam finals.
            hmm so i got 2 trades left and am sitting in 5th position. Looks like i will need to use them this week to ensure a top 4 birth.

          • Avatar

            Blue boys

            August 4, 2011 at 4:26 pm

            A top 4 “birth”…………who’s pregnant???

          • Avatar

            billy1

            August 4, 2011 at 4:27 pm

            Whhaaaaaatttt ?

            You get an extra 4 trades if you make the top 4 ???

            Is that true ?

          • Avatar

            Big Feller

            August 4, 2011 at 4:29 pm

            Spot on Albert – the confusion amongst everyone is the top 8 v the top 4!

            You definitely get the 4 extra trades if you finish in the top 4 whereas the bottom half of the 8 get nothing – this is why you have an advantage going into the finals by finishing in the top 4!!!

            NO MORE CONFUSION!

          • Avatar

            Blue boys

            August 4, 2011 at 4:30 pm

            Thanx Big Fella……..at least someone has cleared it up!!! ;-)

          • Avatar

            Albert Lloyd

            August 4, 2011 at 4:31 pm

            Security…

          • Avatar

            billy1

            August 4, 2011 at 4:36 pm

            Big Feller …

            Is this for Supercoach only or DT too ?

            I am guessing its for DT too (as the question related to DT) .. but can’t find it anywhere in the rules section …

          • Avatar

            TheColonel

            August 4, 2011 at 4:41 pm

            SC and DT

          • Avatar

            TheColonel

            August 4, 2011 at 4:42 pm

            Actually on second thoughts it may just be DT. I dont play SC but i think Virtual Sports run both competitions so the rules about the finals should be the same.

          • Avatar

            The Pack

            August 4, 2011 at 4:47 pm

            Since when do u get extra trades that’s a load of crap I can’t find any other info on this you get 24 for the year that’s it. Correct me if I’m wrong or post a link that’s says it !

      • Avatar

        billy1

        August 4, 2011 at 4:48 pm

        I agree “The Pack” .. I think there is some skullduggery going on ….

  11. Avatar

    mattygee

    August 4, 2011 at 2:00 pm

    OK so im top of the ladder, and playing 2nd in a blockbuster!!

    we are neck and neck for points so the winner will take first spot.

    I have $33,000 in the kitty and 4 trades left.

    I plan to get rid of heppel and was thinking that it might possibly be the week to do so.

    Firstly, should I trade this week.

    Secondly, Suckling or Birchall.

    • Avatar

      Sully23

      August 4, 2011 at 2:31 pm

      If you’ve locked a top 4 spot I don’t see the need to trade (in my leagues I have either top 4 or 8 locked therefore not trading). You’d be better off having the advantage of a trade a week for finals. Secondly Suckling if you were to do so.

      • Avatar

        The Pack

        August 4, 2011 at 4:30 pm

        I plan on possibly using both my last trades this week just to stregthen team for finals and catch players at there price now given I have 80000 in the bank.

        Thinking muzngo to Scotland for dpp the bewick to didak if he’s named this week. This will cover my Geelong players second week but I’m going all out to win the first week sitting 4th but clearly the better team in my league leading total points by a 1000

  12. Avatar

    Chuck Norris

    August 4, 2011 at 4:57 pm

    Hey guys, any news on MISSY HIGGINS? Some are predicting that he might not play again this season which has got me worried.

    Firstly, which trade should I make:
    HIGGINS (if injured) -> N VOLDT
    or
    ZAHARAKIS (finals bye) -> FYFE/GOODES

    Secondly, should I make this trade this week or later?

  13. Avatar

    Blue boys

    August 4, 2011 at 5:02 pm

    Some interesting outs this week………Enright, Sylvia, Prestia, Waters.

  14. Avatar

    James

    August 4, 2011 at 6:03 pm

    Loving my trades in defence this year:
    Adcock->Duigan->Shaw->Ellis.
    Now Ellis is injured and it looks like I have to trade Adcock back in.

  15. Avatar

    westy711

    August 4, 2011 at 6:03 pm

    2 trades left – Which 2 do I upgrade out of:

    Zac Smith, Mzungu and Nick Lower.

    They are my only weak spots. Then my teams finished.

  16. Avatar

    Albert Lloyd

    August 4, 2011 at 6:08 pm

    HAY GUYS

    Lobbe or Zac Smith?

    • Avatar

      westy711

      August 4, 2011 at 6:12 pm

      lobbe

  17. Avatar

    mtooler

    August 4, 2011 at 7:47 pm

    Sylvia out, please explain!

  18. Avatar

    I-PRO DreamTeam

    August 4, 2011 at 10:36 pm

    heyy guys, How do you work out the BE of a player

  19. Avatar

    MickyJ33

    August 5, 2011 at 9:40 am

    Hi Gents

    After a little friendly or in some case not so friendly advice, am a bit of a novice at the whole dreamteam comp but am travelling pretty well at the moment I am sitting top 4 in 3 comps & 5th is my 4th comp.
    I still have 7 trades left & 71k in the bank.
    Team is:
    Gibbs (DEF)
    Goddard (DEF)
    Heppell (DEF)
    Suckling (DEF)
    Lower (DEF)
    Nicoski (DEF)
    Otten (DEF)
    Deledio (DEF)
    Adcock (DEF)
    Wilkinson (DEF)
    Swan (MID)
    Judd (MID)
    Shiels (MID)
    Priddis (MID)
    Swallow (MID)
    Crameri (MID)
    Didak (MID)
    Prestia (MID)
    Gaff (MID)
    Cox (RUC)
    Kreuzer (RUC)
    Smith (RUC)
    Gawn (RUC)
    S Johnson (FWD)
    Pavlich (FWD)
    Cloke (FWD)
    Petrie (FWD)
    Yarran (FWD)
    Rioli (FWD)
    Mzungu (FWD)
    Goodes (FWD)
    Matera (FWD)
    Callinan (FWD)
    Goodes (FWD)

    Should I be getting rid of those rookies I have made $ on this week, freeing up some more $ to pick up better trades for this week?
    I was thinking of getting rid of Prestia & Otten or should I be getting rid of injured players, any advice or citism will be noted.

    Cheers

  20. Avatar

    Ozguyon

    August 5, 2011 at 10:48 am

    Who should I upgrade Z Smith to?
    Can affrd anyone. Have Cox ( Bailey, Lobbe).
    Thoughts on McEvoy, Leuenberger, Goldstein(Bye?), Mumford, Jacobs.
    Thoughts appreciated.

  21. Avatar

    Strait Hopper

    August 5, 2011 at 2:33 pm

    Hey everyone,

    Got myself in a pretty good position going into Finals, 2nd in my main league and top 8 finish in all my others.
    9 trades left and 34,000 in the bank.

    Looking to really make the most of those trades (gives me a double trade pretty much every week!)

    This week looking to bring in Pendelbury to my mids (which will give me Boyd, Swan, Pendels, Ablett, Bartel and Montagna at full strength)

    Not sure who to trade out though: Heppell or Swallow?

    Swallow gives me a few extra $$$s, but he’d be super handy on my bench.

    Heppell slightly less value but has a finals bye.

    Also, I’m going Harris (GCS) to Riley (ADE) to fund the Pendels trade.

    Thoughts? I’m leaning towards Heppell, but still unsure.

    Appreciate the help :)

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