Although we’ve got a week off from our league games, some of you will be looking at trading to maximise your attack on the overall rankings, so let’s have a look at this week’s Stock Market review!
What a huge week of Dream Team scoring! Plenty of 2300s to be had and a hearty congrats to coaches who stuck the big ‘C’ on Gazza. There were some decent games of footy too. Although I’m happy that my Bombers got up, it was a sweaty-palmed, heart-in-throat ride watching the game from up in the stands! Pity about the Pies/Hawks blockbuster fizzing out early – I was really hoping that match would be a bit more of a spectacle. Loving the Suns showing a bit of fight now that they’ve found their feet at the top level, good on ‘em!
The Dream Team Stock Market has once again proven to be a somewhat painful mix of bull and bear. While most of our blue chip stocks were steady, a handful have had a dip, which means a relative bargain or two to finish some of your teams in the next few rounds.
I have to make a special mention of my girlfriend Em, who backs me to keep this up! Schweet as…
Plan, Plan, Plan
There are only three league rounds left until DT finals! For most of us who are locking horns with our mates, now is the time to have a good sit and think about our tactical approach (eg what do I have to do to lock my team in the top 4?) and our strategy (eg how am I going to manage my guns who have a bye in the finals?). Make sure that your tactics and strategy are in line – you don’t want to burn trades now and leave yourself short to sideways trade a gun or two with finals byes.
Of course, if you’re mounting an assault on the leaderboard, these multi-bye rounds are a prime opportunity for you to try and leapfrog the masses with a calculated trade or two.
In either case, happy planning!
Sell, Sell, Sell
Bryce Retzlaff – $150,400 DOWN$3,800 (UP$52,800) BE35. He’s not been a great money-earner and is questionable as a backup bench player given Vossy’s rotation of the green vest, so unfortunately Retzlaff falls into the ‘too hard’ basket. Yes, he’ll get more games, but he needs an 80+ score soon-ish to get his price moving again, or else he’ll stagnate at about his current value.
- Stock tip: Tough one… Hold for a week or two and hope he pulls out a booming score, otherwise he’ll gain you a dour $55,000 if sold in R18.
Cam O’Shea – $212,400 UP$1,400 (UP$119,900) BE58. O’Shea has been a good pickup, playing most of Port’s games this season and appreciating steadily. However, his value topped-out in R13 and has dropped slightly, so anytime now is right for cashing him in.
- Stock tip: Already topped out, trade out any time now to bank yourself a pleasing $119,000.
Sam Iles – $264,300 UP$15,200 (UP$153,900) BE50. Iles was a great pickup for astute coaches out there, debuting in R5 and playing in every Suns match since then. He was highly rated in pre-draft chatter last year and has been pretty solid, if not spectacular, so far. His lowest has been 47, with regular scores of 60+ and a high of 95, which is still in his rolling average. This 95 has helped to pump his value up to $264,300 and he is set for another price rise, making him a very handy late-season earner!
- Stock tip: Projected to increase $6,200 this week, sell after R16 for around $270k and pocket an excellent return of $160k!
Brandon Matera – $189,200 DOWN$10,200 (UP$91,600) BE88. Ah young Brandon, so much promise but so little consistency! There’s no doubting his talent, but it doesn’t translate very well to a good return on investment. He has lost his coaches $10,200 this week and is projected to devalue another $11,900 after this weekend. While he may provide you with bench cover, his stock chart has him on a steady decline until R17, after which he’ll only get back up to around his current value.
- Stock tip: Projected to drop $11,900 next week, so sell now if you need the coin and gain $91,600.
Andy Otten – $258,500 UP$4,800 (UP$116,100) BE83. After a promising start to the season, Otten has been struck down with recurring knee problems, which is a shame from a DT perspective as he has shown some ability with 96, 83 and 87 in his scoring range. His value has started to plateau after his last two of 69 and 52, and with a long-term projection of around $250-260k, his mooing days look like they are over.
- Stock tip: Sell before R17 to gain $116,100 on your initial outlay.
Alex Johnson – $251,700 UP$5,400 (UP$159,200) BE58. Another good buy for astute coaches, Johnson has appreciated steadily to his current value of $251,700, particularly on the back of his last five scores of 57, 84, 72, 83 and 83. He is projected to flatten out at the $250k mark and settle to around $230k from this round onwards, but that could change if he strings together a few more 80s. He looks a very solid type and is excellent DEF or FWD bench cover (if you have another DEF/FWD MPP), but a check of tonight’s team lists will probably help to sway your decision.
- Stock tip: Long-term analysis shows he’s topped out this week and will be on the decline, making a sharp $159,200 if you offload him now.
Blue Chip Bargains
I’ve re-classified the previous ‘Buy, Buy, Buy’ section to ‘Blue Chip Bargains’ to more accurately reflect an analysis of blue chip stocks that can be considered value buys, rather than stocks that are absolute must-haves.
Adam Cooney – $300,400 UP$7,800 (DOWN$79,200) BE13. The Coon-dawg looks fighting fit and back in form, with 110 and 114 in his last two games. He is moving freely, his work rate is up and he has had an impact in those games as well. We know he’s capable of putting up regular tons and should be fairly reliable as he gets about the business of steadying the Dog’s second half of this season.
- Stock tip: Buy now as he has bottomed out this round, with a projected increase of $23,200.
Brett Deledio – $338,100 DOWN$11,600 (DOWN$33,200) BE101. Lids has been pretty consistent this year, with a tendency to come on strong with his DT output in the second-half of his games. However, he has recently had 79, 87 and 79 to drag his rolling average down and depreciate his value to $338,100. He’d be a pretty good pickup in your back line if you don’t already have him, as this is about as low as his value will get this year.
- Stock tip: With a projected price drop of $2,000 next week, pick him up this week or next for under $340,000.
Matthew Boyd – $414,100 DOWN$14,700 (DOWN$64,100) BE98. It’s not often that we see Boyd in any ‘bargain’ section, but he is an inclusion based purely on bang-for-your-buck. He has been up-and-down with a last five of 93, 136, 70, 143 and 94, which is the reason for his recent devaluation. At $414,100 and $64k under his starting price, it’s hard to ignore this DT gun.
- Stock tip: Get on this week as he has bottomed out for the year.
On The Up
Simon Buckley – $243,100 UP$14,100 (UP$145,500) BE42. Bucks Version 2.0 has made the most of his opportunities this year in a very strong Pies squad and has been a great investment for his coaches, whose patience is being rewarded handsomely after his score of 91 against the Hawks. He has one or two more price rises in him and he’ll hopefully get the games to appreciate that little bit more.
- Stock tip: Projected rise of $11,200 this week, sell in R17-18 for around $265k for a superb gain of $160k+.
Max Bailey – $225,300 UP$26,300 (UP$127,700) BE25. It’s great to see Bailey fit and getting games after two years in the injury wilderness. He has been delivering very steady scores of late: 75, 78 and 84. That sort of output puts his value on a positive growth line and, more importantly, he provides excellent ruck cover with the current mini-epidemic of ‘turf toe’ going around.
- Stock tip: Set to appreciate $10,200 next week, topping out in R16-17 at around $235k.
Paul Puopolo – $243,500 UP$8,400 (UP$151,000) BE47. The Poo has been pretty handy as bench cover or even a D7 in the past few weeks playing a team role for Hawthorn, covering wherever Clarko needs him. He had a run in the forward pocket last weekend and turned in an 86 to help his rolling average, which of course will see his value creep up over the next couple of weeks.
- Stock tip: Sell after the Hawk’s bye in R17 for around $255k and gain $160k+.
Simon Phillips – $211,200 UP$20,000 (UP$113,600) BE12. Simon Phillips has flown under the radar with only 0.69% ownership, but will provide a very healthy return for his coaches. His last two have been 80 and 75, which is set to trend his value upwards. However, given Primus’ drive to inject fresh meat at Alberton, Phillips could prove to be dependable cover for your Dream Team.
- Stock tip: Projected rise of $12,900 this week, topping out at around $225k after R16.
Trent McKenzie – $285,200 UP$11,100 (UP$187,600) BE54. After a huge game at Pattersons paddock, McKenzie is off the ‘sell’ list and is on the rise yet again. That 122 has his value heading to $300k+. If you have him though, that last performance would probably dampen your desire to sell such capable bench cover.
- Stock tip: A projected rise of $7,700 this week, topping out after R17 for $300k+, making T-Mac a high-return prospect.
David Swallow – $282,300 UP$13,100 (UP$121,800) BE35. After looking like he was done at $286,800 back in R10, Swallow the Younger has put in two last scores of 88 and 100 to give his value a little boost in the right direction. His forecast value looks to be topping out at $300k or so, but if he keeps putting those numbers up, he’ll be very handy cover!
- Stock tip: Projected increase of $15,300 next week, topping out at $300k in R17-18.
Dyson Heppell – $280,400 UP$6,800 (UP$147,900) BE40. We wrote him off after his value nose dived after R12, but Hepp has shown his class by bouncing back with 100 and 81 in the past fortnight. He has been spending more time in midfield and has proven to be an excellent pick for Essendon, particularly with his decision-making ability. He is on track to once again breach $300k, but those scores may have franked his ‘keeper’ status in your D7 slot and his DEF/MID MPP is a trump card.
- Stock tip: Projected to rise $13,700 this week, topping out after R17 at $300k.
Tendai Mzungu – $229,900 UP$35,700 (UP$132,300). The Gu gets an honourable mention after delivering his first century on the weekend after being the most anticipated DT rookie this year! His MID/FWD DPP flexibility and an average of 71 in 6 games stamps him as the swingman that 35% of DT coaches will rely on for cover to see out the season.
- Stock tip: Sell (if you must) after R18 for $260k.
On The Slide
Lance Franklin – $388,300 DOWN$28,300 (DOWN$24,500) BE144. It wasn’t a great day out for Buddy against the Pies last Sunday, except for his brief stint on the ball in the third quarter before he rolled his ankle. His value is projected to drop by $19,000 next week and he’s one to keep on your shortlist as a FWD upgrade.
- Stock tip: Estimated to bottom out at $350k in R18-19.
It’s all about maximising your trades: seek the best value possible, whether buying or selling; or preserve them, depending on your tactics and strategy. Hopefully this analysis will help you map out your plans for the run home. Those trades are precious, especially as we approach the pointy end of the season so, as always, make every trade count and good luck in this chaotic MBR!
On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT