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Fantasy 101

(75% x old price) + (25% x Current Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average)

Tom Rogers sent us an article to help people understand the magic number and price changes. Hopefully readers get something out of this great piece of DT nerdery. Thanks Tom!

To be a great DreamTeamer you need 3 things.

  1. Luck (Obviously- Injures,  Price fluctuations, The right mid-price players and rookies.)
  2. Skill (Knowing who to pick at the start of the season.)
  3. Smarts (Knowing when to trade players, before the peak or before they bottom out.)

As a serious DreamTeamer I spend much of my day scouting for players b/e and considering players that I may have a closer look at.

These Players Include.

  • Jack Riewoldt
  • Paul Duffield
  • Sam Gilbert
  • Gary Ablett Jnr.
  • Marc Murphy
  • Graham Johncock
  • Brady Rawlings
  • Luke Hodge
  • Corey Enright
  • Paul Chapman
  • Daniel Connors
  • Ryan O’Keefe

And of Course Many More

Now let’s take Jack Riewoldt for instance, he has had scores of 106 (CFC), 0 (STK), 48 (HFC) and a 55 (COL). Many things have to be taken into account if we want to stock up on Jack.

The First Thing

  1. He has been averaging 52.25 with a sub affected 0 and a 48 in poor weather conditions.
  2. He has played 4 quality sides and is now looking forward to a NMFC, BRIS, FREO run. Which could see 3×100+ scores emerging.
  3. The final aspect is whether he is worth the quid, and that can only be answered using the ‘formula’ (75% x old price) + (25% x Current Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average)
  • Now I expect Riewoldt to reach at least 80 this week, and assuming that we would see a slight decline in price.
  • Another thing to consider is if you are planning to get him next week (When I think he will be slightly cheaper). Is what is worth more! $4,000 or an 80+

(75% x old price) + (25% x Current Magic Number x 3 Game Rolling Average)

USING A SERIES OF CALCULATION I HAVE THE CURRENT FORMULA

This can be applied to all players!

(75% x old price) + (25% x 3928.65 x 3 Game Rolling Average).

Leaving The Current Magic Number at approximately 3928.65 and is looking likely to decrease over the next few rounds.

What these calculation shows is that Jack Riewoldt may be slightly too pricey for his current average, but we have to take into account that Riewoldt’s average includes a sub affected 0 and that he has played against the possible top 4 defensive teams in the league and the 48 was partially due to poor weather conditions.

Therefore if I was to include Riewoldt into my team, I would do it as early as possible!

By Tom Rogers.

DT Talk - covering AFL Fantasy and other games since 2007.

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