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Housn v The House: Round 4

Big punter Housn has emailed us his hot tips for this week. Dream Team betting helps us get something out of the hours we put into this stupid game and only score 1900 – hey Calvin! Check out the tips and comment your own for this round!

Morning fellas. If you’re anything like me, last week was a complete disaster in the pursuit of a new Toyota. Having dropped about 30,000 places in the rankings in one foul weekend, it’s time to turn that luck around and use our DT knowledge for profit thanks to our good friends at Sportingbet. Might not win a car but a few dollars along the way will help reduce the amount of “FMDT” across the boards on Monday morning.

I’ve jumped onto Sportingbet to find the best bets available this week. Starting with a bank of $200, I’ll update the balance each week and see how much we can rack up by September. My first rule of gambling is to never risk all of your stash at once; worst-case scenario, we’ve still got something leftover to play with next week.

CLICK HERE FOR DREAM TEAM BETTING

So! Here’s what I’ll be looking at for round four:

Cox is paying $2.00 for the highest score in the best of the best rucks – It’s not much but it’s easy money. If you’re a little more adventurous,  look at Cox in the group of eight for the WCE v Hawks match – he’s paying $4.00 in that one and the man most likely to outscore him  (Mitchell) isn’t listed as an opponent. Embley ($7.00) is the wildcard there but I’ll take $20 on Cox to come out on top.

In the group of eight for what will likely be a night to forget for the Tigers (again, sigh), Pendles is paying $2.00. Much like Cox, this has to be easy money as I can’t see Thomas, Jackson, Beams, Deledio, Cloke, Cotchin or Grigg outscoring him. Richmond are quickly becoming a team of taggers (Jackson, Lids, King, White) but Pendles is pure class. Get on it, I’ve got another $40 there.

I can’t resist a good multi, either. Let’s put two of those together for $10 each:

  • Goodes ($2.70) to beat Kelly and Enright
  • Ablett ($2.50) to beat Sylvia and Moloney
  • Fyfe ($2.50) to beat Wells and Adams
  • Total odds of $16.87

Geelong is Goodes’ 4th favourite team to play, averaging 90 with a topscore of 121. Ablett is quickly playing himself into form and after 115 against the Dogs last week, can see him lifting another notch again against Melbourne. Fyfe played North twice last year, scoring 60 and 113 and should score well again on the back of 117 last week.

And for a little more risk:

  • Deledio ($2.80) to beat Jackson and Beams
  • Watson ($2.80) to beat Judd and Murphy
  • Priddis ($2.65) to beat Hodge and Burgoyne
  • Petrie ($2.75) to beat Mayne and Goldstein
  • Total odds of $57.13

Jackson has never broken the hundred against Collingwood and the Tigers know that Lids will need midfield time (possibly running with Pendles) for them to have even half a chance. Watson has been in Brownlow form (and hey, get on that too!) and should have another good night against the Blues. Priddis averages 118 against the Hawks, and I’d be confident of loading him into the first multi as well. Word on the street has Sandi as a late withdrawal so there’s a good 25 hitouts up for grabs – looking at the big Dish to take advantage there.

Total outlay: $80

Total potential return: $900.

Even if only one of the Pendles or Cox bets gets up, we break even. Both of them and we double our money; while landing either multi would be pure cream.

One other thing to keep in mind. If any player in a set doesn’t play, your bet is cancelled and your money is refunded. This proved to be a godsend last week after Boyd smashed out 125 only for Bartel to put him to shame – Mitchell’s late withdrawal saved me from a completely unexpected loss there. This week, Sportingbet have taken that a step further and declared that all bets are off if one of the players starts as a sub. A player being subbed off won’t change anything, though.

And speaking of unexpected losses… there’s never a sure thing (unless it’s that Pendles bet, haha). Gamble responsibly and don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.

Good luck!

Housn

DT Talk - covering AFL Fantasy and other games since 2007.

71 Comments

71 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Phoenix898

    April 14, 2011 at 11:46 pm

    First :)

    • Avatar

      SALTY

      April 16, 2011 at 12:15 pm

      congrats to u………….

  2. Avatar

    mattyb

    April 15, 2011 at 1:35 am

    I thought Boyd was an absolute lock last week! Sportingbet sent me another free $50 bet. I think the safest bet out of the lot is Cox at $4 so Ill chuck it on him.

    • Avatar

      housn

      April 15, 2011 at 9:55 am

      Yeah, me too, I got him at 7’s before they reduced him down to 4’s. I was absolutely filthy with Mitchell on Saturday night – even as a Richmond supporter and without him in my DT side! – but it worked out for the best. That was Bartel’s highest score against Port (I think?) and even the mad Irish Pirate didn’t think he’d pull that much out of nowhere!

  3. Avatar

    Elvs1

    April 15, 2011 at 6:35 am

    Got on Cox @ $4 last night when I saw it with no Mitchell in the group.

    Also gone a multi
    Lids over Beams and Jackson
    Gibbs over Stants and Simpson
    Thompson over Boak and Vince
    Grimes over Rischi and Green
    Paying $46

    • Avatar

      housn

      April 15, 2011 at 10:05 am

      Nice one! Hopefully the Blues will tag Stants out of the game for you and Grimes lifts after an ordinary effort last week.

      Thompson is a sure thing, I reckon, especially with Kornes dropped for this week. Vince just needs to make the starting 21 and you’re set!

    • Avatar

      d3ft

      April 15, 2011 at 10:55 am

      Gibbs is likely to tag Jobe I reckon, plus he averages a paltry 66 against the Dons. Surely Stanton is the pick there.

  4. Avatar

    Ouchkabibbles

    April 15, 2011 at 9:18 am

    How do you multi the superstars betting? I cant find an option to do it, it just keeps wanting to put on single bets.

    • Avatar

      housn

      April 15, 2011 at 10:02 am

      Try the “+multi” button alongside each players’ odds – looks like it’s still there for me?

      It does only apply for the Trios bets though, so you can’t load up the head to head or the field options.

      • Avatar

        Ouchkabibbles

        April 15, 2011 at 11:07 am

        Ahh thanks

  5. Avatar

    fivestar

    April 15, 2011 at 9:55 am

    im signing up to sporting bet which means I get a free $ 100 bet, im pretty keen to put in all on cox @ $4 and hopefully quadruple my money, is this a good idea?

    • Avatar

      housn

      April 15, 2011 at 10:00 am

      Can’t argue with that one mate. Embley and Priddis loom as your biggest risks IMO but hey, it’s a free bet. Go nuts.

      • Avatar

        fivestar

        April 15, 2011 at 11:00 am

        Thanks mate, if you were in my position would you do the same?

        • Avatar

          crazymofo

          April 15, 2011 at 11:29 am

          I would spread it around put half on him Then have a look around for some good odds that are not sure things, one might come in. What promo code did you use to get the free money?

        • Avatar

          housn

          April 15, 2011 at 11:43 am

          Depends whether you’re looking for a “sure thing” to crystalise the cash, or taking a gamble on free money that you wouldn’t miss anyway.

          A long shot that might just pay off is Goodes or Bolton to beat the field at about $9 to $10 or so. Pendles is as close to a sure thing as it gets to double your money. Cox is something of a balance between the two; and priced accordingly.

          The more that I think about it, the more worried I am about Priddis or Embley trumping the big Cox this week. Priddis has 90, 117, 139 in his last three against the Hawks and god knows whether the 70-something or the 140-something version of Embley will show up.

          Personally, I’d put the bulk of it (if not all) on Pendles, mainly because he plays tonight – If (or when?) he gets up, you can then put the same $100 bet on Cox and still have another $100 to bet somewhere else.

          • Avatar

            fivestar

            April 15, 2011 at 12:05 pm

            actually i like that idea of doubling, thats really good advice thank you, I would split the 100 up but i dont think it allows that. Lets pray for pendles to deliver! Thanks housn

          • Avatar

            housn

            April 15, 2011 at 12:22 pm

            Haha, wait until about 10:30 tonight to thank me – and I take no responsibility for lost money – if Pendles goes down, I’ll be losing my own as well !! ;)

          • Avatar

            RLGriffin

            April 15, 2011 at 12:26 pm

            Make sure you read the terms. The $100 has to come in one bet, and not $20 here, $20 there, etc. And you only get your earnings, not the initial bet. For example, If you bet on collingwood to beat richmond, you lay out the full $100 @ 1.08, and if/when they win, you will only make $8. I hope everyone is aware of this.

          • Avatar

            housn

            April 15, 2011 at 12:38 pm

            Learn something new every day. I’ve never had a free bet before so no, never looked into the fine print on that one. Good pickup mate, thanks for that!

          • Avatar

            RLGriffin

            April 15, 2011 at 12:45 pm

            It wasn’t directed at you Housn, just for general information.

  6. Warnie

    Warnie

    April 15, 2011 at 10:56 am

    Look out for a special offer for DT TALK people with SportingBet…

    • Avatar

      crazymofo

      April 15, 2011 at 11:25 am

      Sweet havn’t signed up for sportingbet am with betfair at the moment, not sure about this DT betting but if there is an offer I will give it a go, it should make dreamteam even more exciting.

    • Avatar

      constant_variable

      April 15, 2011 at 11:29 am

      G’day Warnie! Is there a special section for the DT talk guys on sportingbet or are you guys gonna put up a link some time later??

    • Avatar

      danno

      April 15, 2011 at 11:36 am

      whens all this happening mate? im keen to get on and lay a few wagers…

    • Avatar

      RLGriffin

      April 15, 2011 at 11:51 am

      I hope it’s for people who have already singed up as well as for newbies!

    • Avatar

      dockerone

      April 15, 2011 at 12:10 pm

      When is this happening Warnie? For this weekend or further down the track?

    • Warnie

      Warnie

      April 15, 2011 at 1:14 pm

      Not exactly sure how it’s going to work (and when). The last contact was for today. It could just be as simple as having your account funded with a free fantasy bet! :)

      It will be for ANYONE who has signed up (or intend to sign up) to SportingBet through our site. Click the links above!!

      • Avatar

        RLGriffin

        April 15, 2011 at 1:18 pm

        Wonderful news. You boys know how to treat your non-paying customers! (or paying if we have a certain assistant coach).

  7. Avatar

    Millso

    April 15, 2011 at 11:47 am

    Cox to win brownlow $21 could be worth 10

  8. Avatar

    djblurr

    April 15, 2011 at 12:17 pm

    do you have to send in photograph of license etc to use this properly like on betfair?

    • Avatar

      RLGriffin

      April 15, 2011 at 12:23 pm

      Sort of. You can verify yourself by providing medicare number, tax file number, etc AND by being on the electoral role or in the white pages. Otherwise it’s fax away you license/credit card details. Actually, if you use credit card you have to send them a copy of that anyway.

      • Avatar

        eeepobreci

        April 15, 2011 at 2:34 pm

        JUST MAKE SURE you cover the middle 8 digits of your cedit/debit card, and also cover the ccv number, (which is the last 3 digits on the back of the card,) when you fax or email them through!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
        CAN’T STRESS THIS ENOUGH!!!! (-;

    • Avatar

      housn

      April 15, 2011 at 12:23 pm

      Only if you use a credit card to fund the account. They have (or at least, they did when I signed up) an online verification system using your tax file number, license number and electoral roll address. Too easy!

      • Avatar

        djblurr

        April 15, 2011 at 1:46 pm

        man they are making it incredibly difficult for me! I’m apparently unable to make paypal payments because ive used my paypal account to buy US dollars at some stage (apparently). I have no idea why this is a problem, the account was still made in australia……. Then cant do a credit card payment unless i fax in my credit card (pschhhh yeah right). Was thinking about using this POLI system but I dunno if I want to use that. They also said if I want to withdraw money i have to verify more stuff… So much hassle! I setup a betfair account a few years ago and it was way easier than this :(

        • Avatar

          RLGriffin

          April 15, 2011 at 1:54 pm

          Depending on how long ago it was, they may have changed the Federal Laws regarding betting. Thus needing more proof of identity.

      • Avatar

        mattygee

        April 15, 2011 at 2:36 pm

        how long did the verification take?

  9. Avatar

    djblurr

    April 15, 2011 at 12:20 pm

    you guys started with $200… what is the total at the moment??

    • Avatar

      housn

      April 15, 2011 at 12:35 pm

      This is the first week for the segment – so there’s $80 of the $200 bank on the table as we speak, leaving $120 in my pocket before any winnings that might roll in over the next few days.

      I’ll update the score every Friday morning before placing any new wagers. Last year was fairly successful, so looking to lift another notch again this season and offer something back to the DT board in the process :).

  10. Avatar

    Cakewalker

    April 15, 2011 at 1:30 pm

    Got some tips for you from my profile on a sports betting exchange type website:

    Tip 1
    Event: Collingwood V Richmond ./ Fremantle V North Melbourne
    Date of Event: 15-04-2011
    Time of Event: N/A
    Sport: AFL
    Tip: My Match – Collingwood to score more points than Fremantle
    Odds: $1.57
    Units: 10
    Sportsbook: Sportingbet
    Comments: A new martket that I have just stumbled across which is intriguing. The market enables you to match up any two teams and pick the one which will score the most. For this one I think the Pies are a lock. They have topped the 100 point mark every time this year while the Dockers are yet to reach the ton. Add to that the ability to score heavily against weaker teams (155, 143 against Port and the Kangas) …and well they are playing Richmond.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Tip 2
    Event: Port Adelaide V Adelaide / Hawthorn V Eagles
    Date of Event: 16-04-2011
    Time of Event: N/A
    Sport: AFL
    Tip: My Match – Hawthorn to outscore Fremantle
    Odds: $1.72
    Units: 9
    Sportsbook: Sportingbet
    Comments: In the last three games the Hawks played at Aurora they scored 124, 118 and 155. They look back to their potent best and I expect them to pour it on against the Eagles.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Tip 3
    Event: Hawthorn V West Coast (AU)
    Date of Event: 16-04-2011
    Time of Event: 14:10
    Sport: AFL
    Tip: DT Superstars Betting – Nick Naitanui [WCE] vs Josh Kennedy [WCE] – Naitanui win
    Odds: $1.8
    Units: 7
    Sportsbook: Sportingbet
    Comments: Kennedy will have a tough day down at Aurora with limited supply coming in under pressure. Nicnat will always get guaranteed points through rucking and tackling.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Tip 4
    Event: Hawthorn V West Coast (AU)
    Date of Event: 16-04-2011
    Time of Event: 14:10
    Sport: AFL
    Tip: DT Superstars Betting – Cox V Franklin – Cox win
    Odds: $1.8
    Units: 7
    Sportsbook: Sportingbet
    Comments: Big Cox will revel in the wide open spaces of Aurora. Franklin could still score big but he’ll need to go huge if he’s to beat Cox.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Tip 5
    Event: Carlton V Essendon (MCG)
    Date of Event: 16-04-2011
    Time of Event: 14:10
    Sport: AFL
    Tip: DT Superstars Betting – Heppell V Howlett – Heppell win
    Odds: $1.87
    Units: 7
    Sportsbook: Sportingbet
    Comments: I’ll take a 10 point difference in average in favour of Heppell for an even money bet. Howlett’s average is also boosted on the back of high tackle numbers in the confined Etihad Stadium. It won’t be as easy on the much large MCG to track players down. Heppell on the other hand should enjoy the extra space.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Tip 6
    Event: Gold Coast V Melbourne (G)
    Date of Event: 17-04-2011
    Time of Event: 14:10
    Sport: AFL
    Tip: DT Superstars Betting – Davey V Trengove – Davey win
    Odds: $1.91
    Units: 3
    Sportsbook: Sportingbet
    Comments: Davey will finally get the freedom he has craved and this time there will not be anyone in his way when his team mates try to off load the ball to him. I expect a huge possession count from Davey Snr.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Tip 7
    Event: Gold Coast V Melbourne (G)
    Date of Event: 17-04-2011
    Time of Event: 14:10
    Sport: AFL
    Tip: DT Superstars Betting – Swallow V Prestia – Prestia win
    Odds: $1.87
    Units: 5
    Sportsbook: Sportingbet
    Comments: No need to fear the green jack for Prestia with Sportingbet – money back and No Result. After watching Prestia last week this kid is very much the complete package, just in a different shape to Swallow. The one thing he accomplishes better than Swallow at this point is his ability to find space for the uncontested mark. This combo of mark-kick will see him outscore Swallow more often than not.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Tip 8
    Event: Gold Coast V Melbourne (G)
    Date of Event: 17-04-2011
    Time of Event: 14:10
    Sport: AFL
    Tip: DT Superstars Betting – Harbrow V Brennan – Harbrow win
    Odds: $1.91
    Units: 8
    Sportsbook: Sportingbet
    Comments: Brennan is one of the few weapons GCS’s have at their disposal making him a high shutdown priority for the Dees. There has also been much talked about the Dees lack of forward press, prefering to try to win back the ball in their defensive 50 (thanks Paul Roos). What this means is that they are likely to fall back off Harbrow giving his mates opportunity to get the ball into his hands. Add to that the absence of Brown and he will be a first choice target for all his backline rookie team mates.

    ——————————————————————————–

    • Avatar

      d3ft

      April 15, 2011 at 5:35 pm

      Great find on that “pick your own matchup” market. I can’t believe that price for Collingwood v Freo! They’re just giving money away.

    • Avatar

      speedmeades

      April 15, 2011 at 11:46 pm

      Nice one… jumped on the natinui over kennedy bet (tip 3). Hawks rucks will get punished.

  11. Avatar

    Cakewalker

    April 15, 2011 at 1:31 pm

    Wow – just realised how long that was – hope its not too much…..sorry.

  12. Avatar

    mattygee

    April 15, 2011 at 2:10 pm

    Your free $100 bet cant be used for fantasy betting on sportsbet

    • Avatar

      RLGriffin

      April 15, 2011 at 2:27 pm

      What about for: Sportingbet?

      • Avatar

        djblurr

        April 15, 2011 at 3:03 pm

        also found out that you only win the dividend. So if you bet your $100 free bet on collingwood at 1.05 – youll get $5 back, not $105…… Best thing I could find decent to bet on was swannie to take the most possessions out of a group that included pendels.. It paid $2. Hope that wins me $100.

        Also followed your bets housn at lower margins, plz win me lots

        • Avatar

          RLGriffin

          April 15, 2011 at 3:10 pm

          Scroll up dude, I already mentioned that. But yes, otherwise how would they make any money?

          • Avatar

            djblurr

            April 15, 2011 at 3:36 pm

            sorry mate didnt see it

  13. Avatar

    mattygee

    April 15, 2011 at 2:34 pm

    sorry thats what i meant

  14. Avatar

    fivestar

    April 15, 2011 at 3:08 pm

    Free Bets are available only on win or place markets. They are not available on each way or exotics markets unless otherwise agreed by Sportingbet.
    This was extracted from the freebet terms and conditions. Not sure what they mean by win or place markets and each way or exotics markets. But it sounds like you cannot do it for fantasy.

    What I think i’ll do is find a decent bet (non fantasy) paying around $2, then hopefully from those winnings will gain the 100 back and then place some on cox tomorrow.

    f you are getting the freebet i would heavily considered reading the terms and conditions first, their are some catches. Heres the link http://www.sportingbet.com.au/PromoPopup.aspx?id=16

  15. Avatar

    Rayo

    April 15, 2011 at 3:14 pm

    Just got Delidio to beat Beams, Cotchin, Jackson and Thomas at $4.40 on Betstar!

    • Avatar

      d3ft

      April 15, 2011 at 5:46 pm

      Yuck.

  16. Avatar

    fivestar

    April 15, 2011 at 11:20 pm

    I was gutted! Swan drew with Deledio for most touches! Had my 100 dollar free bet on it but turned out way better then I thought i would! They gave me the freee bet back plus another one just outta feeling sorry! They are truly great. Another interesting thing I figured out about the free bet was that you must use your winnings for more bets to claim it, its what I would be planning to do with it but its just an interesting note. SWANNNNNNNNNYYYYYYYYY

    • Avatar

      housn

      April 15, 2011 at 11:25 pm

      Haha, I hear ya mate. Thomas somehow managed to beat Pendles by 2 points… shattered!! At least Deledio has kept the “risky” multi still in play, so I’m happy there.

    • Avatar

      danno

      April 17, 2011 at 9:29 pm

      yeah i didnt realise that too… i wacked my free $100 on ess to beat st kilda last week and when they won, i tried to cash out but it wouldn’t let me, so cos i wanted to cash out i just slipped it all back on the woods this week to beat the tigers paying $1.05 not worth the effort but it was a sure thing and i wanted to cash out.

  17. Warnie

    Warnie

    April 16, 2011 at 1:09 pm

    Just got on Russell to beat Walker at $1.80… Walker is the SUB! BOOM!

    • Warnie

      Warnie

      April 16, 2011 at 1:17 pm

      Ugh… players starting as sub are refunded.

      • Avatar

        fivestar

        April 16, 2011 at 1:24 pm

        Just used my two free bets,
        Put the first $100 on Sam Mitchell most disposals paying 2.25
        And the second $100 on Essendon to win
        I hate that you cant use these bets on DT but lets pray Mitchell and the Dons light it up!

  18. Avatar

    CheeseBalls

    April 16, 2011 at 2:38 pm

    for Sportingbet promotional code, go to this link:

    http://www.promocodeland.com/sportingbetvoucher2011

  19. Avatar

    fivestar

    April 16, 2011 at 5:13 pm

    SAM MITCHELL YOU GUN! won me $125!
    Too bad Bombers didnt get up, woulda had an extra $87!
    Cox had a shocker, unlucky to anyone who went that bet.
    Housn all you need is petrie and you got yourself a cool 600!

    • Avatar

      housn

      April 17, 2011 at 5:27 pm

      Well done on Mitchell, mate.

  20. Avatar

    CrimsonRaven

    April 17, 2011 at 3:02 am

    Bloody hell lost about 15 on Cox through my various different, bets, best of group, best of ruck men ect.
    Ablett pulled out as well with a calf so that got me some more money returned.

    • Avatar

      housn

      April 17, 2011 at 5:28 pm

      I don’t remember now, but was Jolly one of the Rucks in that set before Collingwood announced that he wouldn’t play? Money back in the pocket it he was.

  21. Avatar

    Money Sharks

    April 17, 2011 at 5:24 pm

    Wow so if the Dish gets the most you get that big multi up, carn the dish get a ton mate.

    • Avatar

      housn

      April 17, 2011 at 5:26 pm

      Sure hoping so mate! Been an ordinary weekend so far but that would be some very nice icing indeed.

      1/4 time, he’s in front of Mayne by 4 points and Goldstein by 21. Looking ok so far but there’s a long long way to go yet!!

  22. Avatar

    fivestar

    April 17, 2011 at 8:37 pm

    Really unlucky there housn, bloody petrie! If he had of won i woulda got $40 but nothing compared to what you might of had. Dont worry, get back on the horse next week!
    I went from 30$ to 215$ so im pretty happy.

  23. Avatar

    djblurr

    April 17, 2011 at 9:23 pm

    mmm that petrie bet was so close :(

    I’ve apparently won by $100 free bet but it hasnt credited it to my account yet. Whats the deal?

    • Avatar

      fivestar

      April 17, 2011 at 9:56 pm

      Well when I one mine it did take long to go into my balance, are you certain you won?>

      • Avatar

        djblurr

        April 17, 2011 at 10:07 pm

        ya it says I’ve won it. I put it on swannie to get most disposals in a group, paid $2. Do I need to have spent my $30 deposit first or something maybe?

        Also my dean cox best of the rucks bet is still unsettled. I’m taking it that bet was lost though? Havent looked up what he scored

        • Avatar

          fivestar

          April 18, 2011 at 10:49 am

          I did the exact same thing, but deledio drew in the disposal count, so what they did was they gave me the free bet back. Definitely contact sportingbet.

          • Avatar

            djblurr

            April 18, 2011 at 11:19 am

            yeah i hit them up on the live chat, had to ask his supervisor but eventually let me have it back!

  24. Avatar

    SlightHawk

    April 19, 2011 at 9:05 am

    So everyone knows,
    If you are signing up, put BETFREE in the promo code box.
    When you deposit $30 or more you get $150 free bet (1 x $50 free bet and 1 x $100 free bet)
    So, you get an extra $50 free bet.

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