One of the things I like to do when looking at my Dream Team is planning what I would like it to look like come Round 22. My theory is to get is looking as good as I can, as soon as I can! In doing this, I look to get value for my trades.
In short… Sell high, buy low!
Seems pretty obvious, but planning your trades can help with this. We are now at a point where we can start looking at downgrading some of our money makers.
Warne Dawgs 2010 starting lineup
I have had a shocking start to the year and have made some bad calls thus far. Here’s my season to date:
Scored 2118 and ranked 8,648th. Carried Buddy and Robbie Gray on the bench.
Scored 2017 and ranked 12,487th (27,637th for the week). Carried Robbie Gray on the bench.
TRADES: Clark out, Seaby in.
Scored 1740 and ranked 26,417th (108,925th for the week). One of the worst weeks ever. Carried Robbie Gray and Heath Shaw on the bench.
TRADES: Riewoldt out, Brennan in.
Scored 1960 and ranked 24,093rd (32,667th for the week). Carried Buddy on the bench.
TRADES: Hitchcock out, Podsiadly in. Ball out, Swan in.
Scored 2064 and ranked 18,164th (12,986th for the week).
TRADES: Warren out, Didak in.
Scored 2058 and ranked 12,278th (11,352nd for the week). Carried Martin on the bench.
So it has been pretty average. I have been lucky with injuries thus far. Apart from the stupid selection of Robbie Gray, but that could still pay off. My trade of Mitch Clark to Mark Seaby was disgraceful, but what it has helped me do is get in Dane Swan and Alan Didak. They came in at the expense of Luke Ball – who I don’t think will return me the 90+ average that I picked him for, and Ben Warren – who didn’t really have the breakout that I was hoping. There is plenty of money being made on the bench and it is all up from here. I have 15 trades left with $42,100 left in the bank.
Here is how the Warne Dawgs lineup at the moment.
Planning for Round 7 and Beyond
Now to start planning, I look at who I want to upgrade during the season – pencilling in my keepers, the dudes who will be there all year. At this stage I’m going to start with the 4 obvious dudes to upgrade. They are: Mark Seaby (obviously hand is forced this week with injury), Jack Trengove, Dustin Martin and Jack Ziebell. These are the guys who I am planning on trading.
There could be others, but at the moment I could do much worse than having Beau Waters, Tadgh Kennelly and Michael Barlow on my ground in Round 22. And if I use 2 trade for the upgrade I mentioned before, I would still have 7 left for injuries/further upgrades. Will be tight, but doable. Luck is what you need in this game.
This week, I will say goodbye to Seaby for his injury (and will be happy to see the back of him and forget that awful Round 3 trading in of him). So I will welcome Dean Cox. The big man is at the lowest point we will probably find him ($383,500) and really, we are lucky he is an option for the Seaby (or Ottens) trade. How am I going to get the cash together? Downgrading Ryan Bastinac for Ben Howlett. Well, I hope so… he should get a game with Dyson and Welsh out and he has had two BOGs for Bendigo.
This now sits me on 13 trades. That isn’t pretty.
But looking at Jack Trengove, he is nearly peaking. His breakeven is 31 and probably has a couple of weeks left in him to hit his $300K or so price tag. At this point, I would like to cash in a Nason, or a Gumby (or whoever) to turn him into a midfielder who has bottomed out in price. Joel Selwood or Lenny Hayes would be awesome options this week. But the thing is, these kind of players come and go. Someone will be an option when you need them. The hard part is whom to downgrade and to whom.
I use tools such as the FFGenie (now at www.ffgenie.com) to keep track of guys rising and dropping in value along with their breakevens and estimating what the best time to trade is. This can help gain you a few thousand extra dollars over the year if you play it right.
I am hoping Jack Ziebell can do something better than what he is at the moment. I was expecting a lot more (ie. to increase in value) but we’re not getting it. His price is handy though as the jump to a ‘premium’ forward isn’t too bad there. Leon Davis is dropping like crazy and could be almost a straight swap at some stage.
This post was basically some food for thought for those of you that trade without and thought to how the season will pan out. While I have gone against some of my own ‘DT rules’ and advice that I give with trading our Ball and Clark, we’ve got to try to not ‘sideways’ trade. Look for positives in any trading situation. Try to make Seaby a premium. If you’ve got Masten, scrounge some cash together to turn him into Joel Selwood or Lenny Hayes. Look to make your team better as soon as you can.
What are some of your trade plans?