Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 14

VICE CAPTAIN… RORY OR TOM?

This is a two horse race and Rory Sloane and Tom Mitchell should be the ONLY two people you seriously consider as your Vice Captain for the Thursday night loop hole option.

Tom Mitchell (29% ownership) scored 125 against the Crows in round 2 and as the best Fantasy player in the game, but as a VC, Sloane’s ability to hit 150 has been much more impressive this year.  Mitchell has scored 141 and 118 in his last two games this year and that 118 was against Port at Adelaide Oval a few weeks back when he had a quiet second half.

Sloane (11% ownership) on the other hand, his highs are very high and his lows are… very low, but he’ll be unique for you here.

Sloane has recorded 6×130+ scores this year. With 3 over 150. That’s two more 130+ and two more 150+ scores than Tom but as we know… he can go 60 and if Shiels tags him (which I think he will), then anything could happen.

The thing is… a VC is a gamble. It’s a free hit. Mitchell should score anything between 110-140, but Sloane could be 60-170, especially when I tell you that Hawthorn are ranked at #1 when giving up scores to opposition midfielders this year. That’s huge and a huge play in Sloane’s favour. BUT… if he’s tagged, he’s buggered.

LOOP HOLE EXPLAINED: This one kicks off at 7:50pm and at this time, all your players from the Crows and Hawks are locked into you teams. To use the captains loop hole, place the VC on a player in this game (Sloane/Mitchell). If you like his score (must be 115+), place a non-playing player on the field from the games coming up. Also make sure you have an emergency selected in the same line. The non-playing player will score a 0, and your VC score will double and your emergency will replace the 0. If you don’t like the VC score, select a captain as you normal would.

WHAT’S THE LINE THIS WEEK?

At this stage the line is back up towards the 115/120 marks for round 14. With many premium guns back after their bye, I think we can gamble that little bit more.

With that said, be sure to tune in to Facebook LIVE (from the DT Talk account) at 5:30pm Friday night before lock-out to get my final line, and my final decision around this, plus, my final trades and to get some answers to any last minute questions you might have.


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OH NO FREO!

Oh no Freo… but for us coaches it’s “OH YEAH”. Over the last three weeks, Fremantle have given up SHITLOADS of Fantasy points to their opposition. In fact, they have given up 1905pts per game over this time (played Bris, Coll,Adel), ahead of the Bulldogs who have given up 1825 and amazingly, the Pies are the hardest to score against at the moment (1418pts).

Therefore, put your calculator away, because this means that the Dockers are giving up 487pts a game more than Collingwood, that’s an extra 22pts per player. This week the Dockers play Geelong…. At Skilled (ew).

Patrick Dangerfield has scored 131, 125 ad 156 on his home ground this year, which now gives him a lowest score of 107 there in his last 11 games.

He scored 118 against the Dockers earlier this year (@DS) and even posted 130 and 147 before that. His form has been great coming off scores of 116 and 131, and against Fremantle, expect something big here.

I don’t want to keep harping on about it, but in the last three weeks, the Dockers have given up 22×100+ scores to their opposition and 9 over 120. Compare that to 12 other teams in league who have given up only 3×120+ during this time and you can see the angle I’m working here.

Joel Selwood will bounce back from his 48 last week as in his last five against Freo he has scored 99, 128, 107, 130 and 138. Mitch Duncan is in the same boat. He scored 128 and 110 on the Dockers in his last two and will cash in here guaranteed.

ZORKO AND ZACHO TO FIRE

Before his bye, Zach Merrett scored a massive 151 and this week he heads to the SCG to battle the Swans, a team he had 117 against last year in round 7, in an 80pt loss. It shouldn’t be a blow out like that and that’s why Zach is a top option this week, considering he scored a very solid 123 coming off his bye round last year.

Dayne Zorko is currently ranked at the #3 man in the game over the last three week with an average of 137. Boosted by a ridiculous 157 on the weekend, Zorko just keeps getting the job done. In his last game against the Giants, he even managed to rack up 131. GWS can be quiet restrictive on their day though and this year, they rank at #1 when it comes to restricting the scoring of opposition midfielders.

I’ll be backing Zorko in though as he ticks lots of the right boxes here when he takes on the Giants from his home ground.

WOUNDED/SICK PIG

Sir Tom Rockliff is struggling. Last week he managed just 74, and sat a long time forward for huge parts of the game. Rocky was apparently sick. The week before he had just 95 with a sore shoulder.

He did score 128 against GWS last year, but coming off illness and a sore shoulder, we now must wait on the pig to show us he is back to his very piggish self before he carries the big responsibility as our captain.

Get well soon Rocky and we hope your back smashing it for us this week. As for non-owners, you enjoy the price drop, and jump back on as soon as you see a positive sign that he’s back to full fitness.

SHOP NOW: Tom Mitchell beanie | Tom Rockliff beanie

GAZ & DUSTY TAGGED?

St Kilda tagged Gary Ablett in 2015 with the use of Geary for just 70, and when he met them last year, even though he wasn’t tagged, he managed just 78.

The Saints are one of the biggest ‘tagging teams’ at the moment and have used a variety of players such as Seb Ross and Koby Stevens and the writing is on the wall that it will happen again this week.

Gaz was tagged by Curnow last week (91) and this week, it might be Dusty Martin’s turn to battle him. Dusty scored 139 against the Blues earlier this year and surely, after St Kilda have kept Dusty under 100 in their last 13 encounters leading into that, he’ll be targeted this week. He won’t be let off again.

Carlton can be tough to score against on their day and with Ed Curnow sitting on your tail… it is going to be even harder and making Dusty captain could collect you another 139, or a 75. But as we always say, high risk… high reward.

JUST QUICKLY…

Steele Sidebottom v Port Adelaide @ the MCG – Ranked #4 on form coming off scores of 133 and 127. Only had 89 in his last game V the Power, but his form suggests he’ll be fine at the MCG.

Josh Kennedy v Essendon @ the SCG – 115 against the Bombers last year and his form has been rock solid.

Scott Pendlebury v Port Adelaide @ the MCG – Pendles score 133 and 112 against Port in his last two and has averaged 127 in his last four this year. Boom!

Bryce Gibbs v Richmond @ the MCG – 194 last week and he scored 127 on the Tigers last year. Still misses my top 5 and should be very dirty on the fact I couldn’t squeeze him in.

Taylor Adams v Port Adelaide @ the MCG – Adams played Port last back in 2015 and that day went bananas with 139. Only had 81 in his last game but should be back better after the break.

Dan Hannebery v Essendon @ the SCG – Scored 108 and 115 in his last two at the SCG, and 102 on Essendon last year.

Adam Treloar v Port Adelaide @ the MCG – Awesome form of 116, 117, 109 and 127. Posted 100 on Port last year and only just missed my top 5 this week.

Ollie Wines v Collingwood @ the MCG – Surprisingly, the Pies are the toughest to score against at the moment and Wines only had 85 against them last year. Is averaging 112 in his last three though.

Matthew Kreuzer v Richmond @ the MCG – Scoring like a midfielder, Special K has averaged 131 over his last three games and as we know, Nankervis gives up plenty of points. If he plays as Nank apparently copped a hard cork. Kruz had 120 against them in round 1 and will be about that mark again you’d think.

Dayne Beams v GWS @ the GABBA – He was in smoking form before a 60 last week. He loves playing the Giants though and over his career 3 games against them he has scored 123, 130 and 113.

Brad Ebert v Collingwood @ the MCG – In great form averaging 119 in his last 3 and that’s with a 99 last week. Only managed 87 and 75 in his last two against Collingwood though, so I’ll pass.

Sam Docherty v Richmond @ the MCG – 143 and 149 are his last two efforts that now rank him as the #2 player in the game based on form. Scored 90 against the Tigers in round 1 but if defender Nic Newman (112pts) can top score for the Swans against the Tigers, surely Doch will be huge once again.

ODDS: For those who would like to see the odds for my top 5 for Calvin’s Captains for round 14, please follow the link provided right HERE.

 

35 Comments

  • Laird not a vc option

    • Exactly what I was thinking, easily a better pick than Sloan.

    • Agreed – Laird is just let off the chain every week, whereas opposition teams have seen a benefit in tagging Sloane. Hawks don’t go the tag, “usually”! They are in unexplored territory this year – maybe Shiels / Hartung / Langford gets the run with job!

      • Only one to go to a tagging role tonight will be Shiels, but even then that will be very unlikely. It’ll be Tommy Mitchell vs Rory Sloane in the middle most of the night & around the ground Shiels might match up against him, but it will not be a tag.

  • Hey guys, two questions.

    1. Who goes first, Cousins (out this week) or Lloyd (GWS)?
    2. Who do I pick up (for Barlow) out of Sheed, Yeo and Roo?

    Thanks in advance.

  • Lloyd and … Yeo or Roo? I went Roo for value this week (plus I have a man crush on him after his last couple of seasons), but it is high risk, high reward. If i was flush for cash I would have gotten Yeo, he seems a safer pick

  • Do I trade out marchbank or a suspended jones for loyd??

    • Who has the higher ceiling; current avg.; the easiest run of three upcoming games; lowest BE; remaining cash (if any) to make? So many factors to consider.

  • Kreuzer for me

  • Worth straight swapping rocky to zorko and getting rocky back in like 3 weeks for maybe around 600k thats if he comes good?

    • Plenty of people try doing this but it doesn’t always work out. Might work for you, but the future is unpredictable. I don’t like swapping premos out to chase cash. I’d rather do it with rooks.

    • There is almost a standard advisory against that sort of sideways trade. I don’t accept that advice except in specific circumstances and I also don’t go against it except in particular circumstances.
      With rocky having unresolved injury/sickness issues and a BE of 172, poor scoring last 2 rounds since returning from injury, and playing GWS, Essendon and Geelong over the next 3 weeks, the flag is up for the needed specific circumstances in relation to the prospective trade out player.
      But you need the trade in player to also meet certain criteria: low BE compare to projected expectation, great current form, no sign of complications (through, say, health issues or perhaps his immediately upcoming draw, or the likelihood of being tagged). Zorko has some challenge through opponents over the next 3 weeks, but does not usually attract a tag, or just makes a tag irrelevant, his BE is great and his form is outstanding.
      A few weeks with him in instead of Rocky is, IMO, a genuine option.
      The other factor, though that can complicate such a trade, is unexpected carnage where you may lose the flexibility to trade Rocky back in if/when (we could probably say in Rocky’s case just when not if). And I have, in the past, lost access to a premium at the optimal time due to carnage. So, you would want good bench coverage to mitigate the impact of carnage and to avoid limits on the timing that you want for a future important premium trade, or trade back in.
      All the best, the option is arguable and could be a very effective strategic move, subject to the caveat.

      • Why say in 25 words what you can say in 274!?

        • Hi Simon, (looking to the question mark after the exclamation), well the extra 249 are for free and Brad’s question implied he had an idea but was looking for reasoned analysis to test that idea. That’s why we post, isn’t it?

          You made a good point when you said “I don’t like swapping premos out to chase cash. I’d rather do it with rooks.” But that is a summary of your experienced conclusions and does not provide the analysis and reasoning behind the conclusion, nor look at useful exceptions.

          The fact that Brad posted a question meant he invited arguments/thoughts to test his idea – arguments, and the underlying reasoning takes more like the 274 words. The provision of a conclusion (without the reasoning) you could do in 25 words – but that conclusion might not cover all bases – the reasoning does that better and usually serves as a fuller response to the enquiry, don’t you think?

          For my own reasons (pissed off?), I had Rocky out in an early edition trade this week and brought in Z.Merrett, so was quite amenable, in my own situation, to looking at reasons to hold that kind of ‘rage’ trade (rage not at Rocky, by the way, but at my own misjudgement in bringing him in after injury and his bye, when I reasoned that that was a risky time). I am still considering trading him out for a few weeks, but am aware of the risks, given that my own bench is probably not strong enough to do that comfortably.

          Rocky is projected to lose around $50k over the next 3 weeks (on possibly over-rated projections given questions about his immediate form and health status: 111, 122, 116). Zorko (on probably more under-rated projections than Rockies, IMO: 109, 104, 106 ) is projected to remain around the same price.

          If Rocky is not well, he could/would lose well over 50k over the next 3 weeks (and he has lost 44k in value from his past 2 games), and will likely get the team less points than Zorko. I think that Zorko could increase a little in value and his chances of maintaining great scoring is, right now, probably better than Rockies until Rocky has his body back, in full.

          The general wisdom is not wisely applied to each particular situation. The general wisdom can be said in 25 words, but may leave one’s understanding incomplete, and an opportunity to take another reasoned approach, a begging. Over the long run I think it will be the exceptional wisdom that will get us better season scores than if we applied the general wisdom to each situation that looks, on the surface of it, to be generally the same. I lift my hat to those higher up the rankings, who know how to practice the exceptional in forming judgements.

          Trading Rocky and Zorko currently may provide an exceptional short term situation for some gain (albeit, as the general wisdom says; with risk!). I am not advising that trade, but do think that looking at underlying reasons to entertain it (or otherwise exceptional sideways trades) are worth it to a coach, so that a coach’s good instinct re a proposed sideways trade does not get straight away countermanded by General Wisdom.

          All that said, all our wise reasoning will get out-trumped by carnage and the mix of fortunes. In the end I know one can’t just reason one’s way to the top 100 coaches, but one can hopefully facilitate a little levitation in one’s overall season success, I think, with whatever good analysis one can muster, appreciating a difference between generally good reasoning and exceptionally good reasoning that allows one to take advantage of a useful trading/structuring opportunity which may seem to be an exception to the ‘rule’.
          652 words (!) R U Serious! Well, yes, but I am smiling! I hope you might draw a little wry smile from the post, too

          • Tease accepted . . .

          • And thank-you FOO FOO the Snoo because , although I agreed with Simon’s general rule, I think he may have overlooked the point about the significance of when it may be opportune to confirm the value of the general rule by practicing an exception to it. Otherwise, without allowing for the exceptional, there will surely be times when ‘carpe diem’ is not practiced, and life will feel the lesser for it!

            So, that would be my tease to Simon . . . why seize the day when you can safely live the day without the risks attached to seizing!

          • I try not to over-think this game any more. Sometimes I get ideas that I dismiss because more often than not they’re shit ideas. Sometimes I follow through with them (*cough* Michael Walters) but they’re still shit and I shouldn’t have done them. I place trading premos for cash straight into the shit ideas pile now, because my experience is it has more negative outcomes than positive ones over time. My replies on here rarely do justice to my whole thought process, but hopefully still give an answer even if it’s not always a serious one.

            I appreciate that all types play this game. And without pissing in your pocket here, I actually appreciated your response… and previous responses you’ve put up where you’ve steered me in the right direction (e.g. don’t pick Rocky two weeks ago because he’s injured).

            Not trying to hijack this thread, so I’ll be quick. In my opinion trading premos to make cash is a terrible idea. It’s kind of like timing the stock market or masturbating at work. You’ll get away with it sometimes but not others. And when you don’t you’ll regret it, meaning you were probably better off not doing it in the first place.

            Don’t get me wrong, I love a good discussion about this stuff… keep the well-thought-out analysis coming.

          • Brain hurts. Lawyer, I presume

          • Over explained.

      • What because he disagreed with you? And made sense?

        • Is this a reply to me? I thought he agreed with me… just in more words than I used. So I teased him a bit. Not sure what you’re on about FFS.

          My three year old says Hi, by the way

          • HEY I CAN’T READ ALL THAT.
            If you get too cute with yer trades one or two
            injuries or suspensions will sort you out.

          • I for one would like to thank Plugger for his edifying and insightful analysis. Keep up the good work old chap.

  • Need help with trades this week. Have only 21k in the bank!
    Suggestions welcome.

    I’m thinking of going Lloyd-Beech via greenwood and Scooter- Whitfield

    What do yous think??

    Doch, Laird, Shaw, Adams, Newman Scharenberg,( EVW, Ryan)

    Rocky,Danger,Merrett,Tmich,Ablett,Hanners,JPK, Scooter( Myers, Lloyd)

    Martin, Jacobs( King, Cameron)

    Macrae, Buddy, Volt, Nank,Greenwood, Barrett(JKH, Cunico)

    • Those trades look good to me, I’m liking the punt on Whitfield. Unfortunately teams tonight trades might change those plans given the injury clouds over Nank & Barrett…

    • Surely you just bench scooter and play Greenwood and trade nank up instead.
      It’s a good looking team and scooter was looking good at training the other night.
      Unless you are in top 20 contention and cant afford to miss out on a 100 for a week.

  • Thoughts on Hall to Zorko and Barlow to De Goey/Gray?
    Or Hall to Sloane and Barlow to Smith?

  • Who’s taking the punt on rockliff?? Or should I take the easy option and go danger?

  • Not too sure why the easy option for people is Danger this week.
    – Playing Sore
    – No Fyfe to go H2H with and run free
    – Blakely will probably tag (kept Beams to 60 last week)
    – If he plays up forward he will get Hamling those pace will match up perfect against Danger.

    He might well and truely go large but I wouldnt say he’s a lock for captain considering 117 from Mitch is an option for most.

  • Thankyou to all the above ph.d students of theoretical fantasy who have submitted their doctorate thesis on time. Graduation pending final scores at the end of this round…… if you pass. Pass mark (2300 points)

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