Fantasy Stock Market – Round 6

Another week where 1900 was a par score. But there were enough promising signs from a few of our premiums to suggest that our sides will be pumping out scores of 2000 and beyond in the coming weeks. More underpriced premiums and a fresh batch of DPP additions means that playing the stock market through team value and smart trading is now more important than ever. Money makes the Fantasy world go around, so let’s get cracking with the Round 6 edition of the Fantasy Stock Market.

Stocks Rising

Dean Kent (FWD) $285 000 – BE: -10 | AVG: 70

Many thought that his cash generation and maybe even his spot in the Dees’ best 22 was done after his score of 10 in his side’s R2 loss to the Bombers. But, I have to say well done to those who stood by him. Owned by just 5% of the competition, Kent’s two round average of 98 indicates that he could be one of the cash cows of the season. Probably too late to jump on now, but with a BE of -10 and a favourable upcoming draw, he doesn’t look like slowing down any time soon.

Next 3 Opponents: St. Kilda (ES), Gold Coast (MS), Bulldogs (MCG)

Peter Wright (FWD) $179 000 – BE: -24 | AVG: 105

2 Metre Peter! After showing very little promise of being of any Fantasy relevance from his three games in 2015, Wright has now burst on to the scene as a genuine rookie downgrade option. Wright’s eyecatching performance included 17 disposals, 8 marks and 3 goals on his way to 105. Obviously, as a key position forward we cannot expect these sort of scores every week, but it certainly won’t do his cash generation capacity any harm for the immediate future.

Next 3 Opponents: Geelong (SS), Melbourne (MS), Giants (SPO)

Josh Smith (MID) $153 000 – BE: -20 | AVG: 89

From a statistical sense, Josh Smith’s debut was a very solid one; 23 disposals, 3 marks, 4 tackles and a goal on his way to 89 Fantasy points. Having said that with the way the Bombers played on Monday afternoon, I’d have fancied my chances to rack up a lazy 20 with a couple of goals. With a few returning Pies, his job security will be a week by week proposition, but to say the midfield rookie cupboard is bare would be an understatement, so probably is worth considering on that alone. I’d be more inclined to pass however.

Next 3 Opponents: West Coast (DS), Carlton (MCG), Brisbane (G)

Josh Wagner, Darcy Byrne-Jones, Tom Lee and Ciaran Byrne all have negative break-evens and provided they can hold their spot in their respective lineups, appear to be decent options of immediate cash generation, but as always, Jeppa is your man when it comes to rookies.

Topping Out

Ben Kennedy (FWD/MID) $316 000 – BE: 55 | AVG: 69

Kennedy has made his owners a handy $95k but a 49 against the struggling Tigers in the ANZAC Day eve clash brought his three game average to just 59. Kennedy was non-existent in parts of the weekend’s game registering just 5 Fantasy points in Q2 and Q3 combined. Before this season, Kennedy had only once strung together more than two consecutive games at the top-level, and it looks like the rigours of AFL football might be starting to take a toll on his output. Given Roos’ history of player management, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him earn a rest in the not too far distant future.

Next 3 Opponents: St. Kilda (ES), Gold Coast (MS), Bulldogs (MCG)

Clay Cameron (DEF/FWD) $263 000 – BE: 35 | AVG: 63

Would hopefully only be featuring on your bench at this point in time, and while a BE of 35 means that owners do not need to panic, his cash generation for future weeks is probably limited. Just 54 and 34 in the past fortnight means that you could do far worse than to offload him to one of the many cash cows coming through at the moment at either end of the ground thanks to his new DEF/FWD eligibility. Has made $138k and as an owner it is about $100k more than what I expected at the start of the season. More than happy to take that profit to the bank now.

Next 3 Opponents: Geelong (SS), Melbourne (MS), Giants (SPO)

Connor Menadue (FWD/MID) $243 000 – BE: 41 | AVG: 55

Going in to the season, Menadue’s tank was always going to be a huge concern. While he looks to have earned a place in the Tigers’ side moving forward, a three round average of 48 and a season high score of 67 does little to suggest that there is much cash left in him. BE this week is still only 41, so he might be able to nudge his way close to the $250k mark, but will need to be milked sooner rather than later.

Next 3 Opponents: Port Adelaide (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Sydney (MCG)

The Watch List

Tom Rockliff $504 000 – BE: 136 | AVG: 73

Arguably the best Fantasy player in the competition is going to be available for under $500k for the second time in as many years. As a result, it becomes a matter of when rather than if to pick him up. With a lofty BE going in to this week, most would be looking to wait at least one more week before grabbing him, but if you are a Fyfe owner you could do a lot worse than jumping on a week or two early. Make sure you have a plan to get him in or risk being stuck without him the week he explodes.

Next 3 Opponents: Sydney (G), Port Adelaide (AO), Collingwood (G)

Stefan Martin $494 000 – BE: 120 | AVG: 81

Courtesy of some indifferent form and ‘that’ bump from Steven May, we now find ourselves with the #1 averaging player of 2015 priced well under $500k. For those smart/lucky enough to have not started with Stef, then depending on your ruck setup, I’m not sure you can go past him. Massively underpriced for what we know he can produce and has shown enough over the last two weeks to suggest that he will hit his straps sooner rather than later.

Next 3 Opponents: Sydney (G), Port Adelaide (AO), Collingwood (G)

Joel Selwood $515 000 – BE: 66 | AVG: 99

Before news broke of his injury ravaged preseason, many were talking up Joel Selwood as a genuine candidate for a spot among the top 8 midfielders in the competition. After featuring in no NAB Challenge matches, it was always likely he would start the season slowly. However the past three weeks have seen Selwood return to his best with scores of 111, 97 and 134. In the next three weeks, Selwood faces matches against both Adelaide and Gold Coast – his two favourite teams to play against, posting career averages against them of 115.5 and 111.2 respectively. Like I said with Roo last week, if you want to jump on, then this week is the time!

Next 3 Opponents: Gold Coast (MS), West Coast (SS), Adelaide (AO)

Feels like being a kid in a candy shop with the amount of top drawer premiums who are at a discounted price. I said it last week, but remember planning is key here. How are we going to fit all of Daniel Hannebery, Dustin Martin, Tom Rockliff, Tom Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Luke Hodge, Matthew Boyd and Robbie Gray in to our squads in the coming weeks? Would love to hear your thoughts!

The Ca$h Grab

Max Gawn (RUC) $507 000 – BE: 57 | AVG: 101

A player over $500k as a cash grab?! Have I gone crazy? Well, probably, but hear me out. After an average first two rounds, Gawn is now hitting career best form posting three tons in as many games at an average of 122. As a result, he now has a very low BE this week (for what he is capable of), but is still reasonably priced. In his next three, Gawn comes up against Hickey, Currie/Nicholls and Roughead. If Gawn can continue to produce these numbers, there is every chance that in a month’s time, a straight swap to Goldstein is a very realistic possibility.

Next 3 Opponents: St. Kilda (ES), Gold Coast (MS), Bulldogs (MCG)

Rory Atkins (MID) $284 000 – BE: 22 | AVG: 63

Much like fellow cash grab canditate and Crows team mate, Jarryd Lyons, Rory Atkins struggled to cement a regular spot in the Crows’ best 22 last year, but after playing all five matches so far, his job security looks to be solid for the foreseeable future. Atkins has scored 94 and 84 in his last two outings, both which have come against competition heavy weights in Sydney and Hawthorn respectively. Averaging 26 touches and 6 marks in the past fortnight, Atkins looks to be playing in a role conducive to Fantasy points and still finds himself at a rather tempting price tag.

Next 3 Opponents: Fremantle (AO), Bulldogs (ES), Geelong (AO)

The POD Radar

Marc Murphy (MID) $464 000 – BE: 112 | AVG: 83

The Carlton captain is currently owned by just 5% of the Fantasy population, but I feel as though that number is set to skyrocket in the next fortnight. A combination of an interrupted preseason, poor form and an injury affected score now sees Murphy priced at just over $450k and dropping. Another one of those guys who just has to be considered at such a discounted price. Not going to be a top 10 midfielder but with two trades per week, Fantasy now allows punts like these more willingly. A source of points and cash generation that should be closely watched.

Next 3 Opponents: Essendon (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Port Adelaide (ES)

Chad Wingard (FWD) $410 000 – BE: 131 | AVG: 61

Ok, so I don’t really know why, but I don’t really like the Chad. But anyway, I will try to keep this as unbiased as possible. The potential of Chad Wingard being priced at a tick over $350k means that he has to be considered when he bottoms out. A return of 116 points in R1 was what many expected from Wingard, after his solid 2015 season, which he finished on the cusp of the top 10 forwards in the competition. Since then, he has missed a week with injury and averaged just 43. Definitely one to monitor once he regains form.

Next 3 Opponents: Richmond (MCG), Brisbane (AO), Carlton (ES)

Weekly Wrap

Another incredibly even distribution of points among DT Talk’s Regular Posters League saw 15 of the league’s 16 side separated by just 100 points. The outlier here was Broo’s side, Danger’s Disciples who pumped out a 2080 to jump in to the top 8 (and top 4 on overall points). Despite giving the captaincy to the now maligned figure of Zach Merrett, Broo’s unique selections of Max Gawn and Jack Viney gave him a very nice boost in the rankings. Elsewhere ZaydB’s Money Trees cracked 2000, while cricketmad787 (1997), FevsBingles (1990), Shags (1987) and Callum (1987) all produced above par scores to secure head to head victories. Looking forward to the Round 6 fixtures, we see the top two placed sides do battle in what promises to be a weekend filled with banter and inevitable 30s from our unique players. Also just a quick shout out to DT Talk user, Dwayne Johnson, whose side has ghost shipped its way through the past few weeks. I understand we all live busy lives, but I speak on behalf of all the lads when I say it would be much appreciated to have you back on board.

As we start to enter the most crucial phase of our Fantasy season, it is important that we continue to play the stock market and especially not get caught up in the hype of the new DPP additions. As good as some of them look, I think it could be dangerous to upgrade to one of them rather than pick up one of the plethora of underpriced A-graders available at the moment. The coming weeks will be very intriguing. But, that’s all from me this week. Hope you got something out of it and make sure to leave any feedback for future articles or trade dilemmas in the comments and I’ll try to get around to them. Good luck for the weekend and here’s to a few scores over 2000!

MB-AFL-KANvsBUL

35 Comments

  • Great article mate,

    would you go Vince and swing him back next week or get in the heavily underpriced selwood?

    • Weighed up the same options, Jelwood’s BE and price just has more value than Vince, even though it leaves my backline quite rubbish. Personally I’m banking the premo and hoping for a DPP trade for Dea to a mid rookie and getting Vince for Adams next week myself.

  • Sidebottom or pendlebury?

  • Keays or Smith and why? (This will be for my bench) Gonnna wait a week with Petracca:)

  • Fantastic article Mbrucie! Love the wrap up, and a few players now on my radar! Looks like I’m trading in Te pig this week :P

  • Nice article mbrucie!!!

    I’ll try to give you fellas a chance this week :P

  • Would you trade out S.Gray for Hannerbery or Marcus Adams for Kade Simpson?

  • Good Job Mitch.

    I have you in another league this week so hopefully I can square the ledger and make it 1 all :)

    Good Luck

  • Menadue out… not sure who to bring in…

    1. C. Petracca? looks to be a point scoring machine, may not earn as much as others though?
    2. B. Keays? unknown quantity for me, heard good things though and only $176k!
    3. J. Smith? some runs already on the board and still cheap!

    little help ha

    • Im thinking Petracca to fill my m8/f6 spot, even if he doesnt score well this week he will only get better.. Keays has mentioned he will be playing forward so scoring will be limited & has js issues and smith i think has js issues. If hes only going to fill a bench spot then keays or smith will make you more cash short term imo

    • Personally I’m going for Smith, fully aware I’ll probably need to move him on in a fortnight. The reason being A) Already has a -20 BE while Keays would be around the low 30s and Petracca is probably pushing 40’s, so they’ll need have really good games to match the profit of even a Smith 50. Likewise, a mediocre score will slow how long it takes for them to make huge profits B) Both are new, and are likely to spend a lot of time forward, so those 40-65 scores are pretty plausible for all of them and Smith is the only one who can get away with it.

      Basically, I think that Smith and Keays have the worst job security, but I’m willing to chase the certain fast rises rather than risk some unknown quantities, and hope Mathieson or Blakely are showing up when Smith invariably gets dropped in three weeks after making a quickfire 70k.

  • Pendles or Selwood?? Pendles feels like the safer option but Selwood probably has a higher ceiling, is in a far better side and has a soft draw around fantasy finals time….

  • the spot that Menadue has been holding was a m8 spot… so its not a bench player im bringing in. I agree with JS for Keays and Smith! Petracca is in my team at current! something will happen though and ill have to reverse trades!!

  • Another cracking write up MBrucie! :)

    Just managed to get the win over Lachie Neale (Jimbo)!

  • Why is no one talking about Viney! Surely he’s a safer option than Rocky right now…

  • Good article Mbrucie.. I for one dont mind Dwayne Johnson being a ghost ship for one more week as im versing him this weekend haha

  • great write up mbrucie, very close in league, the competition is getting tougher by the week!

    be wary, the rock is always here, lurking, waiting to pounce blues13…

  • Upgrading ben kennedy to either hanners gaff or selwood. I already have tichell and danger. Is having hanners or selwood to much on one team? Should i just go with gaff? Any help Would be appreciated thanks

  • Interesting article and food for thought as always. Traded Robbo to Wingard after round 1 to go a bit unique – what a disaster.

  • Hey everybody im upgrading weitering this week thinking hes pretty much hit his peak…iv 160k in bank so my top targets are Biggs Pittard Yeo Rosa.. Who is my best long term??My current def is Houli Birchall DBJ Dea Wagner Weitering…bench lee+ruggles. Thanks for any advice

  • Good article as per usual Mitch! Appreciate the time and effort that goes into these articles week in, week out 👍🏻

  • Who should I have? J Selwood or Barlow? Considering Barlow is finally getting a run in the guts now and will do without Fyfe? And what is josh wagners BE?? Can someone tell me Barlow and Selwoods BE too?

    • Barlow BE – 61
      Jelwood BE – 66

      I have both (traded in Jelwood this week) but if I didn’t have barlow I wouldn’t be looking to get him in. Too much risk there when on the other hand you could have an in form, proven premo in Jelwood