Possible round six DPP additions

This is the third year that DPPs will be awarded during the season in AFL Fantasy and will go across the three formats, Classic, Elite and Match Day.

These happen at round six, 12 and 18 (that is, in play for those rounds). So we will see these rolling out next week. I am unsure of exactly what day at the moment due to the Anzac Day on Monday. Hopefully we will be able to announce them on next week’s podcast, but maybe they won’t be finalised until the Tuesday. Watch this space… but I assume they’ll be in the system mid-week to give everyone plenty of time to get organises with their teams.

For those new to this, the team at Champion Data, together with some at Fantasy HQ (which includes us) add dual position eligibility to players who hold one position and have proven enough that they are playing in an alternate position. The ones Fantasy coaches love are the midfielders who gain either FWD or DEF status. This can be even more beneficial in Elite and even those who add MID status can help with your weekly moves – especially come the byes and when those injuries/suspensions strike.

HOW PLAYERS ADD A POSITION

There are a range of factors that go into making the decision to upgrade a player. The major ones being;

  • Where players get their possessions. This can be highlighted by heat maps (which the regular Joe punter can find via the ‘coach’ section of the AFL Live app if you have purchased the season pass) which show hot spots for disposals and also the percentages in forward and defensive halves. Darker areas on heatmaps show more traffic for possessions.
  • Which zones they get their touches. Like the above dot point, these are broken down into forward 50, defensive 50, midfield zone, forward half, defensive half, attacking midfield and defensive midfield adding more than what the heat maps show.
  • Where players line up. Where players are situated for bounces and stoppages have a factor on DPP additions. The biggest one for this that have been found this year is that a lot of wingers are getting a lot of ball in the back half, despite not playing as a defender. More on that later.

It is a mix of the above and looking into other stats that can help finalise decisions such as centre bounce attendances, game play for different teams, among others.

The DPP additions has been a new an exciting aspect for Fantasy coaches and the way it is implemented has developed over the last two seasons with a lot learned. I’m sure these will be spot on this year – with a very conservative approach taken in the first round of changes. The changing nature of the game with the limited rotations and the sub vest going means we’re learning a bit more about how teams are using their midfielders. The round 12 changes might be more telling.

ULTIMATE FOOTY ADDITIONS

Last week Ultimate Footy added their first round of DPPs, and due to only three games of data there were only six additions. The conservative approach will be where AFL Fantasy will be heading, with only five rounds to make their first lot of calls.

  • Lachie Henderson – Geelong – add DEF (now FWD/DEF)
  • Jackson Merrett – Essendon – add MID (now FWD/MID)
  • Ryan Davis – Gold Coast – add FWD (now FWD/MID)
  • George Hewett – Sydney Swans – add FWD (now FWD/MID)
  • Shaun Burgoyne – Hawthorn – add MID (now DEF/MID)
  • Kamydn McIntosh – Richmond – add DEF – (now DEF/MID)

All pretty safe here. I would suggest that AFL Fantasy will follow suit with these. I’m not sure on Hewett as if he isn’t recalled this week, would only have three of five games and may not quite be enough data. I’m not sure on that though – it was evident that he is a FWD in the Swans’ side, so he could end up with it regardless. Same goes for Jackson Merrett.

WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT WEEK

Apparently discussions will open up this week, although as you have probably noticed over Twitter, we have been tweeting out heatmaps and chucking out two cents in. Please note that despite a heatmap being tweeted out, it doesn’t mean that a) I or anyone else think they will get DPP or b) that it means anything other than it being interesting.

Callum Mills is a lock for DEF status in my opinion. He has been lining up on the back flank and is playing his footy there. I’m interested in seeing all of Champion Data’s numbers around that, but from heatmaps – and watching him – I think he’s done enough to get it in this first round.

Joining him is likely to be top up Bomber James Kelly. He has lined up on the wing at times, but 76% of disposals in the defensive half together with the way he plays the game, I think he gets it. His heatmap paints a picture that has DEF/MID all over it.

Another rookie to get DPP could be Clay Cameron. He could add FWD to his DEF.

Cameron Guthrie is interesting. He could gain DEF, but I’m not entirely sold. 64% in back half and lining up on HBF. Maybe the conservative approach will mean that he won’t get it.

Port Adelaide have thrown up a few interesting ones. Did you know that Travis Boak kicked his side’s first goal in the first three rounds? His season heatmap, prior this this week, was looking very forward and watching him in games, he was always up there. They got pumped by the Giants which saw him get 61% of disposals in the back half, taking his numbers to 40% back half, 60% forward half for the season. He’s a midfielder. Brad Ebert is in a similar position.

Robbie Gray has been a FWD/MID his whole career. Plenty of score involvements and a lot of things that point to him being that status again (62% forward half disposals), but he is a midfielder. I’m sure his centre bounce attendances will be up there for the Power.

Now for the ones people are excited about… well, the bubble is about to be burst.

Scott Pendlebury won’t be getting DPP this time. Not on my watch anyway. Haha. Although he definitely played the first three rounds as a rebounding defender without many centre bounce involvements (the Richmond game was a telling one), last weekend he was a midfielder. End of story. He could be in line for it in round 12, but not for this one.

Looking at Brandon Ellis‘ heatmap, you would think he is a lock for DEF status. If he played (and lined up) like he did in round one for the last three weeks, then boom, he’d get it. But the numbers of where he was playing – predominantly wing – doesn’t fit for DPP upgrade.

There are plenty of names being considered and there will be plenty of numbers crunched. Stay tuned next week (and over the weekend on social media) for more on the DPPs ahead of round six.

Post any suggestions you have for players who should be looked at in the comments.

32 Comments

  • What about baguely

  • Fantastic write up! A few interesting ones, although I do believe, as do many others, that AFL Fantasy will take the conservative approach as mentioned. Cheers boys!

  • Has anyone ever/will anyone ever gain RUC status mid season?

    • Blicavs adding RUC a couple of weeks before the season was one! Haha. Mitch Clark (controversially) added RUC last year… and Tippett got it in the last addition IIRC.

      This year it would have to take for some mass injuries to see RUC added. Maybe like a Roughead type – not him though – who does enough chopping out in a game. Would need to average 15+ hitouts or so to make it justifiable.

  • Sam gibson or richard douglas ?????

    • Gibson will stay as MID in my option. 49%/50%… playing on ball. Douglas has been all over the ground. 52%/48% and really looks like a stereotypical MID on the heatmap.

  • Gaff as defender?
    66% defensive half, 33% of those in the defensive 50.

  • Newnes??????????? Surely a chance, he’s resting back

  • Is it me or does that heat map in heading look like something else?

  • Probably a stupid question, but can you use one player’s DPP without the second?
    Ie. If Callum gets DEF/MID, can you trade a pure DEF out, move Callum from midfield to defence, and then trade in a pure MID?
    Or, do you need a reciprocal DEF/MID player to swap Callum’s positions first, then trade?
    Hope that question makes sense.

    • No thats correct.

      You can trade a DEF to a mid if you move a MID/DEF to def.

      • How do you do that on the mobile app?

        • Select the player you want to trade out. Scroll down in the ‘Trades’ section and you should see your MID/DEF player in the MIDs with a big blue “S” next to his name. Select that and then trade to your pure MID!

    • Once you select the pure DEF as the player you want to trade out, you may then swap with the DPP MID/DEF player to trade to a pure MID, in saying that, you are very correct.

      Also, love how I’m incorporated into your question. I should get a DEF DPP next week anyway!

      • You’re a champ and will be for the next decade (from a very biased Swannies’ fan persoective). Great young guns we’re building for the future. Hanners (25), Parker (23), Mitchell (22), Heeney (19), Mills (18). Then Cunningham, Rohan, Hewett, Llyod, Papley, Jones, Reid, Rampe, Johnson….. I’ve given up listening to how the Swans will slide down the ladder. We’ll be up there for quite some time!

        • Cheers bud! When put in that perspective, the Swan actually to have plenty of upside over the next decade.!

  • Ciaran Byrne – Add MID?

  • Is the pic on the homepage to click to this article supposed to look like a c**k or is that just an unfortunate coincidence?

  • Chances Josh Kelly receives DEF/MID status? Seen the heat map seems possible!

  • Lachie Hunter has to be close to MID/DEF. Currently at 68% and 32%

  • Caleb Daniel to gain MID??

    • a decent chance given his role. But fantasy-wise, doesn’t change things too much, as one would preferentially play him as a FWD if given the choice.

  • Dal Santo been playing off half-back?

  • Tom Liberatore’s chances of forward status. Lined up on a forward flank most of the year. Clearance numbers down. Only got his first rebounds (2) last round and I imagine his possessions are forward of centre? Is it possible to see his heat map?

  • Jack Newnes a chance for Back Status? Been lining up on the HBF a majority of the games, floating in and out of the midfield. 2.8 Rebound 50s per game. Would be interesting to see his heat map.

  • Is there a chance of pearce hanley adding defender status spending alot of time there