Name: Gary Ablett
Team: Gold Coast
AFL Fantasy: $581,000
Bye Round: 13
2015 Average: 96
2015 Games Played: 6
Predicted Average: 112
Why should I pick him?
Firstly, Ablett isn’t priced at his average of 96. He’s priced at an inflated average of 105 and rightfully so. If you are sitting there angry about this, then go play lawn bowls or something.
This makes the game slightly harder and creates a few questions marks as to whether you would pick him or not. Everyone plays by the same rules… righteo let’s carry on.
Why will you pick Ablett to start round one? Well, excluding an injury riddled 2015, Ablett has averaged 118 since joining the Suns in 2011.
Gaz has had a rotten run of injuries and is back flying at the moment. He played only six games last year and in his final game he wore the vest (22pts), excluding that game he would have averaged 109 for the year.
After injuring his shoulder during 2014, he started 2015 too soon, scoring 61 and 70 in the first two rounds, before sitting out a chuck of the year. He returned in rounds 14-15-16 to score 119, 119 and 176.
THIS IS WHAT ABLETT DOES! THIS IS WHY YOU PICK HIM!
He’ll be your captain come round one as he fronts the Bombers at Metricon Stadium. He loves playing at home and the Suns will certainly be looking to get their season off to a promising start, especially after what happened last year.
Will Crowley tag Ablett? God I hope so! There is no way Crowley will keep up with Gaz and Crowley is only capable of tagging ‘slower’ players in the league such as Sam Mitchell.
Don’t get fancy, don’t over complicate an easy decision. Lock and load.
Why shouldn’t I pick him?
Our mate Josh Pearce (@pearcey47) is one of the best Fantasy coaches going around. Last year he nearly won the game and certainly knows his stuff (finished 5th overall 2015). But when it comes to Ablett this year, he’s not as sold as many.
“If Ablett averaged over 110 for the season I would be very surprised. So I think there is better value that can be found initially, and I see him as an upgrade target.”
Well there you go. The man who knows his stuff, doesn’t think Gaz can average 110+ and only sees him as an upgrade target as there is better value around in the midfield.
I personally disagree and agree. I think Ablett is capable of average 110+ and if he doesn’t, I’ll be surprised. Pearcey is right though by saying that there are many others who offer great value in the middle now that Gaz is priced at an average of 105.
Another reason why you might not pick Ablett is because sometimes a POD (Player of Difference) is the player you don’t have. Passing on Ablett to go with the ever reliable Pendlebury (18% ownership) won’t be laughed at.
Ablett is currently in a massive 52% of Fantasy teams. Under Ablett’s price you can find, Dayne Beams (5%), Adam Treloar (2%), Joel Selwood (5%) and Matt Priddis (4%) who are all proven scorers.
Are we just following the herd here and do we need to be a little different and more unique? And, is old mate Pearcey actually on to something?
Deck of DT Rating.
ACE – Honestly, If you don’t want to start with the Little Master, then good luck to you. He was one of my first players picked and in my team. Everyone has been traded in and out over the last few weeks, but Ablett remains locked in stone.
Something crazy would need to happen to convince me to change my mind on this one.
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