Gary Ablett – Deck of DT 2016

Name: Gary Ablett
Team: Gold Coast
Position: Midfielder
AFL Fantasy: $581,000
Bye Round: 13
2015 Average: 96
2015 Games Played: 6
Predicted Average: 112

Click here for DT Live profile.

Why should I pick him?

Firstly, Ablett isn’t priced at his average of 96. He’s priced at an inflated average of 105 and rightfully so. If you are sitting there angry about this, then go play lawn bowls or something.

This makes the game slightly harder and creates a few questions marks as to whether you would pick him or not. Everyone plays by the same rules… righteo let’s carry on.

Why will you pick Ablett to start round one? Well, excluding an injury riddled 2015, Ablett has averaged 118 since joining the Suns in 2011.

Gaz has had a rotten run of injuries and is back flying at the moment. He played only six games last year and in his final game he wore the vest (22pts), excluding that game he would have averaged 109 for the year.

After injuring his shoulder during 2014, he started 2015 too soon, scoring 61 and 70 in the first two rounds, before sitting out a chuck of the year. He returned in rounds 14-15-16 to score 119, 119 and 176.

THIS IS WHAT ABLETT DOES! THIS IS WHY YOU PICK HIM!

He’ll be your captain come round one as he fronts the Bombers at Metricon Stadium. He loves playing at home and the Suns will certainly be looking to get their season off to a promising start, especially after what happened last year.

Will Crowley tag Ablett? God I hope so! There is no way Crowley will keep up with Gaz and Crowley is only capable of tagging ‘slower’ players in the league such as Sam Mitchell.

Don’t get fancy, don’t over complicate an easy decision. Lock and load.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Our mate Josh Pearce (@pearcey47) is one of the best Fantasy coaches going around. Last year he nearly won the game and certainly knows his stuff (finished 5th overall 2015). But when it comes to Ablett this year, he’s not as sold as many.

“If Ablett averaged over 110 for the season I would be very surprised. So I think there is better value that can be found initially, and I see him as an upgrade target.”

Well there you go. The man who knows his stuff, doesn’t think Gaz can average 110+ and only sees him as an upgrade target as there is better value around in the midfield.

I personally disagree and agree. I think Ablett is capable of average 110+ and if he doesn’t, I’ll be surprised. Pearcey is right though by saying that there are many others who offer great value in the middle now that Gaz is priced at an average of 105.

Another reason why you might not pick Ablett is because sometimes a POD (Player of Difference) is the player you don’t have. Passing on Ablett to go with the ever reliable Pendlebury (18% ownership) won’t be laughed at.

Ablett is currently in a massive 52% of Fantasy teams. Under Ablett’s price you can find, Dayne Beams (5%), Adam Treloar (2%), Joel Selwood (5%) and Matt Priddis (4%) who are all proven scorers.

Are we just following the herd here and do we need to be a little different and more unique? And, is old mate Pearcey actually on to something?

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE – Honestly,  If you don’t want to start with the Little Master, then good luck to you. He was one of my first players picked and in my team. Everyone has been traded in and out over the last few weeks, but Ablett remains locked in stone.

Something crazy would need to happen to convince me to change my mind on this one.

Is Gary Ablett a round one lock?

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25 Comments

  • ablett may venture forward more this year giving us goals , goals , goals this could be a reason why I think he will average over 110 let the freak show begin.

  • Ablett will average 115. To think that he is not good value… I mean you have to be deluded. The fact that he came off an 11 week layoff mid season and then pumped out two consecutive 119s and then a MONSTER 176. Its just absurd. People seem to forget he is the GOAT, and the last time he didn’t average 110 bar his injury affected 2015 was in 2007!!!

    Case closed. If you don’t pick him. Stop playing, don’t watch football again. Sorry for the rant. Nice article BTW Calvin ;)

  • He might average 110 but is prone to injury. I’d prefer someone to play all games and average a little less than 110 from 15 games. Pendles and Hannerbury safer bets and less ownership. Upgrade for mine.

    • He has had 2 major injuries in his entire career, the shoulder and the knee. These are contact injuries that have a lower chance of reoccurrence compared to soft tissue (eg. Hamstring, calf). Provided he gets through most of at least one NAB game, pain free, he is an absolute lock

  • Nice write up Calvin. I am one of those electing not to start with him this year (for the first time ever) purely as I can see better value elsewhere. Yes he will increase, but I’ll be starting with others who I think will increase by more. Upgrade target for me.

  • How is foot going though?

    • Hopefully we see him at least once before the start of the season.

      Not his foot Im worried about. That weak shoulder.

  • Locked. Nice article Calvin.

  • Not many players can punch out 170 odd he can , so if playing he is a must have he and rocky lock caps all year

  • He is so smart with the pill that if he gets his hands on it inside 50 let the point rack up to 200 or more

  • He’s priced too high to be a huge risk to not start with, baring some sort of amazing start. He has a poor record from returning from long injuries, 105 is a big ask right out of the gate, even for him, he’s getting older, his team would be trying to put more responsibility on the younger guys through the guts, and again, niggles are still happening. Surely will be a must have at some point, but I’m not convinced he’s the best choice financially r1.

  • Who holds the record dream team points ? And do you think it could be broken this year with more time on ground for players ? And if so who might be the player to do so ?

    • From memory i think it was buddy a couplemof years ago when he kicked a bag down in tassie.. 201 i think??

    • When they had that bloke going through old timey DT scores last year they went over the bests, a few of the 90s ultra forwards beat Buddy, Dunstall if I remember correctly had a 236 or something with 18 goals and 20 marks or something comedically ridiculous like that. Mids all peak at the 190s with guys like Rocky etc. Buddy’s 204 is the biggest of the modern age.

      • Hey dude, I’m “that bloke”. Good to see someone remembers my Throwback Thursday articles from last year! You’re right on the money with those stats.

        • Good to see you’re still around, they weren’t useful for advice but seeing that stuff was always interesting to read :)

  • There isn’t a player in the game that you will regret not having more than this guy if he pumps out a 150 in round 1.

  • The 2 big injuries he had won’t affect my decision in picking him, it can happen to anyone.
    But he’s 33 this season. Age will affect every player at some point and it can sneak up without warning, particularly accelerated wear and tear.

    I think he will play more forward this year as will all mids. The amount Ablett plays there will obviously depend on his body. Could mean more goals but disposals and tackles may drop.

    Too risky some may say, well 2 other regular big guns are equally risky, Beams games played last 2 seasons were 16 & 19, and Fyfe 18 in both

    All that said I will be starting with Ablett.

  • Injury ruling him out of at least first two NAB games changes the equation dramatically. 50/50 proposition.

  • ‘sometimes a POD (Player of Difference) is the player who don’t have’

    he he he

  • I have Pendles Fyfe Rocky….so Ablett is not too shabby at D4

  • Love your articles mate. But your comment about lawn bowls is stone age crap. I play premier league and most of the teams under 35. Nice work, but maybe you should be playing tiddly winks..

  • He might not average 110+ for the year. But look at GCS games first up.
    @home v Essendon – Easy win for GCS, and at home he and the other midfielders should have a field day as Essendon midfield will be much weaker then GCS.
    Only way he wont score well is if he sits on the bench alot. I can see him going forward and kicking a bag of goals as well.
    Away v Freo – Freo games normally have alot of stoppages. And with a player like Ablett and other midfielders GCS have, they will get there fair share of ball around stoppages. And Ablett doesnt mind tackling as well if his shoulder feels good.
    @home v Carlton – Should smash Carlton and loves playing at home, and should have a field day.
    Away v Brisbane, Doesnt travel far and should do well again.
    @home v NM, again at home.
    Away v Geelong, playing his old team, he will step it up in this game.
    @home v Melbourne, again playing at home and not against a really strong team either, should get alot of ball once again.
    Away v GWS, free flowing high scoring game and alot of touches in this game.
    @home v Crows, again at home.

    he plays other teams like WCE away after this. But if anything Ablett needs to be a lock and if you want trade him out later on. But with GCS draw. I will be keeping him all year.
    Paying 105 average for him. I expect him to average 120-125 for first 9 rounds. I reckon he will drop down to about 115 by EOS. And i can see GCS making the 8 if the key players come back and no more injuries to set them back. If you wont a player of difference, trade him out later. Definitely not an upgrade option IMO. As you will be paying for more then you will get.

    He will average like 120+ in these games.