Lampe’s Price Watch – Round 12

For the most part, our players managed to stand up for us when needed most in the first week of the byes. Of course, there was the odd stinker and injury affected score but there isn’t much you can do about that.

Round 12 will probably be the hardest week for coaches all year, with many good teams struggling to field 18 players. Not only that, there are a significant amount of our premium options missing this week, meaning scores will be lower as a result (remember it’s all relative though).

Here is a look at the best of what is available this week.

 

Defenders:

Buy:

Kade Simpson ($481,000): Simpson could be one of the bargains of the year, priced at just over 480k. After an underwhelming start to the year, Simpson began to hit top form in the three weeks leading up to his bye, with scores of 116, 87 and 106. This has left him with a break-even of just 72, and if his form continues he should be up above 500K within a few weeks’ time.

*A quick side note* I’m not sure how many of you can remember back to round 22 last year but in one of the worst fantasy performances I have ever seen, Simpson managed a dismal 27 points against Port Adelaide. Surely, something like that can’t happen again, and I’m backing him to return close to his best for the rest of the year.

Simpson is under-priced and still down 40k on his starting price. If you are looking for value in your defence, Simpson could be a great option  coming off his bye.

Liam Picken ($537,000): If you are looking for a defender who is under-priced for the monster scores he has been producing, then Liam Picken could be your man. Since his release from tagging duties into more of a free flowing, ball winning Midfielder, Picken’s fantasy numbers have gone through the roof. Since round 4, Picken has averaged a shade under 114 points per game, including five of six matches over 100, three of which have been 120+. Presuming his role continues and he has gotten over the calf injury that caused him to miss the week before his bye, he should easily be a top 6 defender by seasons end.

Picken has had as big of a transformation as any player in the competition, and I’m finally convinced it’s here to stay. A handy 70K is saved from him to Hodge.

Daniel Cross ($475,000): With newfound defender eligibility, Cross should be one you are considering for a place in your fantasy backline. This is particularly true if you are only concerned with league wins and not worried about the byes. Cross has been in terrific form of late, with only one score under 90 in his last six. If this continues, he should significantly increase in price with a break-even of just 73. Coaches who are interested in overall rankings should hold off until after his round 13 bye, but he should come under consideration at some stage.

Has suddenly become relevant again with the addition of new DPP’s this week. At the worst, should be a top 10 defender come seasons end.

50/50:

Brodie Smith ($353,000): Brodie Smith must be considered this week, simply due to the amazing value he holds. At just over 350K, Smith is ridiculously under-priced, having lost over 100 grand from his starting price. As previously mentioned, most of this is due to the two serious concussions he suffered earlier this year and his struggle to return to full fitness as a result. Smith still has a break-even of 102 and playing the Hawks this week, I doubt he will hit his basement price until about round 14.

Terrific value for a player who is capable of an 85+ average in full flight. There is significant risk in getting Smith this week, but if you time it right, it could be one of the trades of the year.

 

Midfielders:

Buy:

Dayne Beams ($579,000): Beams is one of the in-form players of the competition and if you get him now, you will be paying top dollar for a player you should be keeping for the rest of the year. In the weeks leading up to his bye, it looked like Beams finally started to master his role within the side and gel with his new team mates. As a result, Beams has one of the highest five round averages in the competition of 113.4 and has actually gone 123 or higher in three of his last four matches. The main worry I have with Beams, is that he has predominantly played bottom sides and it is a bit of an unknown how he will fare against the better teams.

Beams is still down on last year’s starting price and with a break-even of 80, will continue to rise in value if his form continues. At the very worst, he should be a top 10-12 Mid.

Patrick Dangerfield ($592,000): Much like Beams, if you’re trading in Dangerfield it should be as a keeper. I believe that Dangerfield should be able to achieve this, seemingly having a slightly more fantasy friendly role under Walsh then he did with Sanderson. With a break-even of 89, Dangerfield should be increasing in money with some strong performances in the coming weeks. He takes on Hawthorn this week, which on the face of it looks like a tough match. He did however manage a career high 41 disposals and a huge 132 Fantasy points on them last year. Dangerfield also has a massive three round average of 121.7 and is one of the in-form players of the competition. The other bonus of trading in Dangerfield this week, that you don’t normally have, is the ability to use him as a free hit with your vice-captain, due to the Thursday night partial lockout.

Could be a relatively unique POD in your midfield. He has a huge ceiling and is capable of winning you league matches. There is always the risk that he will go back to his past role of sitting in the forward line for a quarter, not getting a kick, but hopefully that is mostly behind him other than the odd rest.

Mitch Wallis ($437,000): There are very few players in the competition who hold as much value as Mitch Wallis. With a break-even of 25, one of the highest three round averages in the competition (119.7) and fresh of his bye, everything seems to be pointing his way. Wallis is another Bulldog who looks to be flourishing under Beveridge’s new style of play, and with a fantasy run as easy as any team in the competition (Except possibly North Melbourne), he could be in for some massive scores if his new role and form continue.

At the very worst you would be hoping for an 85+ average and his price increasing to about 500K. The best case scenario is a 100+ average and a player who can occupy one of your final Mid spots for the rest of the year.

50/50:

Rory Sloane ($493,000): Sloane has dropped under 500k mostly on the back on injuries and subsequent poor form. After a terrific start to the year in which he posted three straight hundreds, Sloane has struggled with a calf niggle, a fractured cheekbone in round 6 and looked to be struggling to find his best form in his return before his bye. Sloane still has a break-even of 133, so it is highly likely that he still hasn’t reached his basement price either. If you are willing to take the punt on Sloane a week or two early, it could be one of the trades of the year, if it comes off.

Will most likely go down another 20 grand or so in the coming weeks, but it all comes down to when you think he will turn it around.

Jordan Lewis ($659,000): Lewis is a 50/50 this week based on this conundrum: Do you pick the highest averaging Midfielder in the competition, fresh of his bye, or do you wait a couple of weeks until you (and others) can get him significantly cheaper? This is given his break-even of 165 this week. There is also some risk involved with Lewis, who is coming off a shoulder injury and a two match suspension just before his bye.

Personally, I would upgrade elsewhere this week (for most, the rucks) and wait about two weeks for Lewis to bottom out. However if you back him in, he could reward you with some monster scores, potentially as captain.

Avoid:

Joel Selwood ($481,000): Can’t go past Jelwood again. As previously stated, I think it is a combination of factors that are hindering his form and fantasy scores (Hand injury, less help around him than in previous years, and generally having significantly worse starts then ends to the year). Selwood has only one score over 80 in his last five and with a Vince tag to come his way this week, it will be hard for him to produce something big.

If he can have a second half of the year similar to what he has in previous seasons, he could be an absolute steal at close to 450k. For right now though, you should stay away.

 

Rucks:

Buy:

Sam Jacobs ($533,000): This is perhaps the most important week of the year when considering the trade you make in your rucks. With Mumford down for the year and Bellchambers looking unlikely to play after his bye, most people will need to do something in this area of the ground. The smart move is to trade in either Jacobs or Martin. Jacobs has been in good form, scoring four hundreds in his last five games, with his low score of 63 coming against a hit-out crazy Sandilands. His break-even of 107 is fairly irrelevant in this situation, as you are spending the cash to set and forget for the rest of the year.

Stefan Martin ($574,000): Despite the temptation to go down to Kreuzer, the obvious choice is to pick up the other of the two top ruckmen. Martin has a lowest score of 97 in his last eight matches, and you can almost lock him in for a score between 95-115 each week. In fact, Martin has unmatched consistency for a ruckmen. Being in just over 7% of teams, also makes him a relatively unique option that could help you in league matches.

You can lock-in 100 from him most weeks. Set and forget him with Jacobs and you will be happy for the rest of the year.

50/50:

Matthew Kreuzer ($258,000): I mentioned Kreuzer as a risky 50/50 option last week, but with the ruck carnage at the moment he becomes even more of a consideration. At just over 250K, Kreuzer is probably the most under-priced player in the competition based on potential alone. The huge question mark is obviously where his body is at, and what he can realistically average for the rest of the year. I would predict an average of about 65-75 for Kreuzer, and with a break-even of 25, you must decide if that is enough value to go against setting and forgetting in your rucks.

Personally, I will be trading in one of Jacobs or Martin for the safety, but it depends on your appetite for risk.

 

Forwards:

Buy:

Brett Deledio ($517,000): It’s hard to go past Deledio as the best trade in target for the forwards this week. He is still under-priced at 517K and is the best forward coming off his bye. Deledio has been in good form of late, with three straight hundreds before his last match. His 70 in round 10 did come against Fremantle, who are traditionally one of his worst teams to scores against.

Has a very gettable break-even of 94 and should go close to a top 6 forward from here on out.

Koby Stevens ($463,000): This is one for those Dream Team players who like to think outside the box. I have actually had my eye on Stevens for a number of weeks now, (admittedly in Elite) but I haven’t had the guts to do it. Stevens actually has a five round average of 91.8 and seems to be another one of the Bulldogs thriving under Beverages more attacking style of play. I highly doubt he will be a top 6 forward by seasons end, but if he can continue his current form he could give the top 10 a crack.

A huge risk and definitely not for everyone. With a low break-even, his bye out of the way and a great fantasy run ahead, he could be a unique option that serves you well.

Avoid:

Robbie Gray ($557,000): This is one predominantly for players looking at overall rankings and who haven’t managed to get Gray back in their sides. With a round 13 bye and more attractive targets in other areas of the ground this week, wait until after his bye if you still don’t have him. He does play Carlton this week, but with a break-even of 125, he should at the very least be about the same price in two weeks’ time.

An absolute gun and a must have in your forward line at some stage. However, Hold off until after his bye if you are one of the few that still don’t have him.

 

Round 12 advice: My advice this week is to try and trade in round 11 players when possible. This is particularly important for those in search of  improving their overall ranking.

Once again, I would stress not to ruin your team for short term gain over the byes. Even those looking to reach the top will pay for it as the season progresses.

 

Final Thoughts: Lampshade’s Lads managed 1679 from 18 players last week, dropping me to 390 in the rankings. Originally I had 21 players, but as with much of this year, injuries played a part in stopping that!

Finally- Don’t get disheartened over the byes. After this week you will be 2/3 of the way through them, and the competition will be more enjoyable in the second half of the year as finals approach.

73 Comments

  • great article lampe
    I was wondering who should come in for me this week between hodge or dangerfield or should i save the coin and go for simo? and next week find one of those two premos?

    • Thanks mate, I would go with Hodge as he is probably worth more in the defence than Dangerfield is in the Midfield. The other bonus with this (assuming your Mid rookies are playing) is that the Mid rookies are more solid and higher scorers than the majority of the defender rookies, so this will benefit your team as well.

      Simo is a good option and if you want to save the coin he is definitely the one I would choose, but if u can get the absolute best you may as well not muck around and do it while you can. You never know when you will be able to get them again. Simpson does have a break-even of 72, so in all likelihood he will go up in price this week but he should still be a very viable option at under 500k next week.

  • Cheers Lampe! Could get in either Smith or Kreuzer this week – tough! Any input on which you’d prefer?

    • I’d probably go with Kreuzer mate. It’s only a gut feel but I feel like he is going to be the better of the two, especially in the short term. The other bonus is of course that you have the extra cash to upgrade somewhere else in your team.

  • I think Sloane will a great buy next week. Should be about 475k and he has a fairly easy run home so I can see him averaging 100-105. Will most likely be going Cripps> Sloane which will only cost about 80k

  • Thoughts on Trent Cotchin Lampe? Better than Sloane this week? Already got Wallis, Simpson, Lids and went Goldy instead of Kruez.
    Also would you trade out Rich or Ibbo for Smith? otger trade is Stevie J to a mid.

    • Hey Anth, I would go with Sloane over Cotchin. I’ve been one to give Cotchin chance after chance in the past but when it comes down to it, I am starting to believe he doesn’t have what it takes to be an elite fantasy player. Sloane may take 1 or 2 weeks to get going but I think he is the better option, especially long term.

      I would trade out Ibbitson before Rich. Ibbo is coming off his first 100 of the year last week but I rate Rich as the slightly better fantasy option. He also has the bonus of having his bye out of the way already. I would be looking to get both to better options when you can though mate.

      I might be being generous here, but I would give Stevie J one more week. He does play Melbourne before his bye and if he is ever going to go 100+ this could be it. This is actually exactly what I am doing with my own side, and will probably upgrade him over his bye. ALthough he hasn’t been terrible in his last few (before last week) you need more from your premium midfielders and he hasn’t produced, so like I said, next week I would upgrade him.

  • Lamps would you rather Cross over the likes of Higgins and Laird?

    • All three have been in good form lately but I would pick Cross *just* over Higgins and Laird. I think he is the safest pick of the lot and his history backs that up.

      Higgins and Laird are both decent picks, but as good as Higgins has been in the last month he can still be a roller-coaster.

      Laird has also been great lately, but I would need to see it for longer before I got him in my side.

      From best to worst I would go: Cross, Higgins, Laird.

      In all honesty though, there shouldn’t be that much between the three, with a maximum of 5-10 points average between them.

  • Kruezer & Boyd
    or
    GOldy & Smith

    • I would go with Kreuzer and Boyd, just. It should be very close though.

      If you go this way make sure you have suitable cover in your defence, as Boyd may miss the occasional match.

  • I’m on struggle street. Dahlhaus or Deledio???

  • Hey lampe I have 819k to spend on any 2 positions. Do you recommend a premium and rookie or 2 mid prices? Who do you recommend? I have Wallis, and 2 playing rucks so Kreuzberg isn’t an option :(

    • Hey Port, Personally I would go with the Premium and rookie, but unfortunately a lot of the rookies I would consider (e.g: Kavanagh, Acres, etc) have their bye.

      I think the premium and rookie is especially the better option when two of the best Mid-pricers, Wallis and Kreuzer aren’t viable alternatives.

      If you don’t have Dumont I would still consider trading him in and then getting a Hodge type in your defence.

      Like I said, my personal preference is a rookie and a super premium, so look for the best rookie available tonight (and tomorrow if you aren’t trading in an Adelaide or Hawthorn player but be careful you aren’t) and go that way.

  • Very tough one. I think Dahlhaus will be the more consistent of the two but Deledio has a higher ceiling. All in all, I think both will be top 6 forwards (or very close to it) and are great picks.

    You should also consider what you can do with the extra 14k, if anything, with Deledio.

    Personally, I would go with Dahlhaus (just) over Deledio. Can’t really go wrong with either though.

  • Hey lampe great article once again.

    I have 819k to spend on any 2 positions. Do you recommend a premium and rookie or 2 mid prices? Who do you recommend? I have Wallis, and 2 playing rucks so Kreuz isn’t an option :(

  • Thanks Lampe. Should I trade Ibbotson to a better def and then instead of Smith?

    • At this stage I would go with a Hodge, Picken or Simpson if you have the cash. You may as well get the best available option while you are able too, unless you specifically have something you will do with the money you save.

      I still believe Smith is great value, but it is hard to know exactly when he will turn it around and he should at the worst be the same price, if not cheaper, next week.

  • Thanks Lampe, I look forward to this every Thursday :)

    One question though. I know Lewis is going to leak money but is it still worth jumping on him this week knowing he will be the #1 player? (That 80 came where he was in serious doubt to play and up against the Saints, given his week break now he should be fresh and back to pumping up big scores)

    If I miss Lewis now then I may have to wait three weeks minimum most likely to get him back in.

    But on the other hand Steffy Martin I could also grab him and not stress all year.

    Would you rather:

    a) Lewis and Krooze

    b) Martin and B.Smith

    • Thanks Nathan, I appreciate it.

      Personally, I would rather go with Lewis and Kreuzer rather then Martin and Smith at this stage. Like you said, even though Lewis may leak cash, he has been and should still be, the best player in the competition, so it may really hurt you if it takes a long time to get him back.

  • Bring in Wallis or Boyd?

    • One of the tougher calls to make. Boyd should be the better scorer and as a defensive option is very valuable. On the other hand, Wallis may average slightly less but he will save you a huge 124K.

      If you are simply looking for the better player (and scorer) I would go with Boyd, but if you can put the 124k to great use then Wallis is probably better value.

      Personally, As long as you can put the extra 124K into another upgrade this week or next then I would go with Wallis, but it all depends on what you want to do with your team.

  • Love your work, Lampe. I have to get rid of Mummy. I initially chose Jacobs and save an extra 41k. But Martin is a pod ( only 7% ownership) and seems more consistent.
    But Jacobs has played already played against sandi, whilst Martin hasn’t yet. Any data on Martin vs Sandi?

    • Thanks toasted. IMO Martin is the better option if you are simply looking to set and forget. I really expected his ownership to be higher than 7%, and although it will surely increase this week, he is still a fantastic POD to have in your team.

      Martin scored 100 and 107 against Freo last year, and while his hit-outs will no doubt he lower against Sandi then any other ruck-men, it just shows he can still gather his 20+ touches and a few tackles he has virtually every week.

      Although there won’t be that much in it and I do believe Jacobs is the second best fantasy ruck-men, unless you have a specific plan for the extra 41K I would go with Stefan Martin.

      • Thanks for that advice Lampe. It has reinforced my decision, even though I might in the future find a need for an extra 41k.

        • No worries mate, happy to help.

          Yep, often we wish we had more cash but you will know (hopefully) that at least you spent it on the best Ruck-men in the competition, who should continue his great form in the second half of the year.

  • I don’t have the funds for a hodge, Boyd etc. smith is the only option. Even with a downgrade.

    • If Smith is all you can afford he is still a good option. It will be hard to find a player with more potential and value then him at such a low price in your defence.

      Be warned though, it may take a week or two for him to get back to full form but he should still be good for a 70-ish between now and then.

  • Smith is a good punt I reckon.

  • Cheers.
    My backline is my only weakness.
    What do u think Hibberd, Rich, Newnes, Simpson, Burgoyne Smith

  • The back-line is a bit weak to be honest but at least you aren’t playing any rookies.

    The first trades I would make in your defence would be Rich and Burgoyne up to Hodge and one of Mundy, Boyd or Picken when you can find the cash to do so. (From a round 13 rookie would be the ideal scenario).

  • To go from Belly to Sauce or Stef I have to get in a rookie def for the week (JKolo) but that also means for about 3 weeks or so I would have to put either Hamling, Jkolo or Colquhoun on my field until I can upgrade my defense as I have bigger problems elsewhere.
    Is it worth it?

  • Hey Supersubs, without knowing the rest of your team I would say it is probably worth it. With a bit of luck you will be able to get a 50+ average from whoever you play and you will be able to upgrade as soon as possible.

    If you are really are uncomfortable with playing a defender rookie, then don’t do it and upgrade elsewhere, but really consider what combination allows you to achieve the most points in total.

  • GOldstein or Martin and why?

    • thats a hard one. Goldy has been in form and he will destory this week but martin will consistently get 100 so its ceiling vs consistency

      id go goldy

    • Martin easily. Highest averaging ruck and will stay that way. His lowest score is 87 I think and although he doesn’t have Goldy’s ceiling he gets plenty of 100’s.

    • I would go Martin Paynton. Higher average, more consistent of the two and has already had his bye. Goldstein IMO will be the 3rd highest averaging Ruck-men from here on out and has a higher ceiling, but definitely Martin ahead of him.

      The only exception would be if you really need the extra 48K and the trade you make with it is better than the 5-10 points Martin should average higher then Goldstein

  • I did say it was weak.

  • I’m trading out either CEY or KMAC, who should I target? Hodge or Wallis?
    Thanks in advance all!

    • hodge

    • Hey leisuresuitlarry, I would go with Hodge mate. As a defender, Hodge is so valuable and you may as well get the best possible player while you can, because you never know when the chance will come up again.

      Saying that, I still think Wallis is great value for money and the only exception would be if the 170K you save allows you to get a second super premium player.

      But like I said, I would go with Hodge in your situation.

  • If i do my trades tonight not involving any hawthorn or adelaide players are they locked in or can i still change them tomorrow?

    • not sure but if they dont involve crows or hawks players just trade tomorrow before the friday night game

    • I am not sure if you already make the trades whether they are locked or not sorry Lachlan. I am 95% sure they are not, but I will not give u a definitive answer as I am not 100% sure and don’t want to ruin your team.

      My best advice would be go to DT Talk and take a really good look until you can find out!

  • Thanks for the help Lampe, great read as always!

  • I am going Bellchambers> S Martin & Newnes> Rookie(JKK etc) with 120k left next week to upgrade Thurlow> McVeigh. Can’t get Cross or Picken this week but Rich, Oxley & Saad might eventually become those types of players. Thoughts?

    • Newnes to a rookie is a bit eh

    • Bellchamber > Kreuzer, Newmes > Hodge/Picken/Boyd would be a better move as Kreuzer JS is far better than a 120K rookie and Martin isn’t that much better than a premo defender pick.

    • I quite like those trades Steven. Martin and McVeigh are excellent additions to your team and while you are getting rid of Newnes, who has actually been solid lately, I think your team has benefited as a result.

      Eventually upgrading Rich, Oxley and Saad to Picken and Cross types are also fantastic trades. Wait to play the break-even game, see which one has maxed out in price in a few weeks time and try to upgrade them first.

      • However, like Antognus and Lachie Neale pointed out, Bellchambers to Kreuzer and Newnes to Hodge (I’d pick Hodge), Picken or Boyd is probably the safer option. Then it just depends on whether you can still get McVeigh next week or not. If you can, I would probably be inclined to go this way actually, if not then probably the way you first mentioned.

        Either way it’s up to you and go with your gut feel mate.

  • lampe im so confused please help!

    1) mcveigh and dahlhaus
    2) hodge and riewoldt (i want a pod and if you take out his injury affected score, he is averaging 101, third highest forward)

    cheers

    • Hey Josh, I would go with Hodge and Riewoldt. I also think Riewoldt is a great point POD in your team and will probably average very similar to Dahlhaus, if not slightly more. Do remember though, that even as great as Riewy is, as a key position player he will probably be less consistent than Dahlhaus (although only slightly).

      The one thing I would let you consider is that if you are doing both these trades this week, either way you are trading in a player with a bye this round. There is some risk with this strategy, especially with Riewoldt’s sore knee, that they could always miss round 13. If you are comfortable with that, then fine, I hope it pays off for you but just be a little wary of that.

  • My favourite read too.

    Yeah in with josh Andrews. I was going to go swan and titchell next week for my upgrades but I really want N. Riewoldt in my team as a pod. Maybe that might have to be the week after..

    This week I’m going bellend – kruezer and N Robertson(haven’t been able to Palm him off for ages) – Dangerfield.

  • Lampe.. got that rookie defender name feel to it. Sort of like Schade

  • Thanks Statutory Apes, appreciate it mate.

    You really can’t go wrong with Swan, Titchell or Riewoldt.

    I do believe that Swan and Mitchell will average higher than Riewoldt for the rest of the year, but if the unique option that also saves you a significant amount of cash is of more value to you, then go for it mate.

    I like your trades this week. Kreuzer is a risk, but we just have to hope that his body gets through and he can average 70+. I think Dangerfield is a good option too and looks to have elevated his fantasy game to that next level. Hopefully it can remain!

  • Would you go macrae and save a bit of cash for another upgrade next week or grab hodge and have not much cash left over??

  • Trade Barlow? Or Hold?

    • Hey Rockyhawks. If you have nothing more important to do, I would trade Barlow. I am in this same predicament and am sick of what he has been producing, but I just have more important things to do at the moment. If you are going to trade him, my advice would be to trade him to an absolute premium that you can set and forget, otherwise you might have the same predicament at a later stage.

      Options such as Lewis, Dangerfield, Beams, Ebert and Brandon Ellis are probably some of your best this week.

      Like I said, personally I don’t think he is going to be able to turn it around enough to be a keeper but do be wary that as soon as you trade out a premium (or ex premium) they often produce massive numbers and show you where to stick it. Hopefully you pick the right way to go!

      • Can only afford 514k player.

        Was thinking Sloane..

        • If you can only afford a player up to 514K I would definitely go with Sloane. Knowing this, I would say it’s more of a 50/50 on whether you trade. If you are doing it to get rid of a round 12 bye player then I would do it, but go with your gut feel on what to do.

          In the long term, I do see Sloane as the better of the two for the rest of the year, but it may take a week or two for Sloane to return to his best.

  • That is a tough one because I do quite like Macrae at his price and with his Fantasy run ahead. However, I am going to go with Hodge, as long as you are getting him in your defence that is.

  • gOLDSTEIN MASSIVE

  • Kade Simpson Article is great, but it was round 17 against GWS and he scored 31 I’m fairly sure.

  • Simpson did score a 26 against GWS in round 14 last year, but he also scored a 27 in round 22 against Port Adelaide.

  • Danger solid last night… But with goldy or dusty for the rest of the weekend, not sure whether to keep dangers 105 as a captains score or to risk it on either goldy or dust. Thank fark I didn’t put the vice on Lewis which I was originally going to do.