Lampe’s Price Watch – Round 9

Each week I’ll take a look at a few players from the four lines and help you decide whether this is the round to trade them in based on their price and breakeven. I’ll provide some information on players recent form and how you might expect them to fare in the coming weeks.

 

Defenders:

Buy:

Mathew Boyd ($552,000): With a breakeven of 100 and new-found defender eligibility Boyd is a must have in your defence. It came as a huge shock to me to see that he is owned by under 4% of the competition. Boyd has a very friendly run ahead in the next 6 weeks. He takes on GWS and Port-Adelaide, followed by Brisbane, St-Kilda, Carlton and Gold Coast after his bye. Based on this I can only see his price increasing and his average climbing over the coming rounds.

The only Knock on Boyd is his durability (old man’s calf) but he should be able to freshen up over his bye and have a huge month after.

Luke Hodge ($600,000): Hodge is the most expensive and highest averaging defender this year. Generally you would expect a player with a breakeven of 115 to go down in price, however I can only see Hodge increasing in the coming weeks. The next two rounds he plays Gold Coast at Aurora, followed by St Kilda and his scores could be off the charts!

Will be fresh and looking to atone after his three week suspension and will be capable of something huge over the coming rounds. Should be able to play the majority of the season without a rest, given his stray forearm has already given him a good one.

Avoid:

Brodie Smith ($382,000): I really feel for the 12% of coaches who still own Smith. He has had a terrible run of luck suffering two concussions and his form has dropped as a result. With a breakeven of 135 and a round 11 bye, now is not the time to bring Smith in. There is a strong chance he will struggle this week against Fremantle and is highly unlikely to reach his break even.

Could be one of the steals of the year at around $350,000 after his round 11 bye.

Kade Simpson ($470,000): Simpson has had a poor start to the year given his lofty standards and has dropped $51,000 already. He does have a break even of just 82 and is coming off his first hundred of the year. With a bye coming up in just 2 weeks and scores of 77, 67 and 75 as well as missing 2 matches in his last 6, I would avoid right now.

I can’t justify him this week but could be a great pick up after his bye if he’s back to his best.

 

Midfielders:

Buy:

Tom Rockliff ($480,000): Who would have thought that going into round 9 Rockliff would be averaging just over 75 and would only have one 100+ score? Rockliff has dropped an astonishing $283,000 this year, primarily due to injury and bad luck. With a breakeven of just 76 and getting closer to full fitness each week, he is a MUST get this round. Add to this that Jack Redden is again expected to miss, means that Rockliff should spend most of the match in the middle.

Expect great things from Rocky for the rest of the year.

Jack Steven ($621,000): You will be paying top dollar for Steven but if you think he can keep up his current form he is a good option. Steven has a breakeven of just 73 and playing Brisbane this week should be in for another hefty price rise. You should be aware that Steven has never averaged over 100 in a season before, but with scores of 166 and 142 in two of his last three games he looks to be having a true breakout year.

Steven comes with some risk, however he is capable of a 150 score that can win you league matches.

Matt Priddis: ($586,000): Priddis has five straight scores of 100+ including a massive 155 two weeks ago against the Suns. With a breakeven of just 78 and still down $25,000 from his starting price, he is under-priced and getting back to his Brownlow form.

The type of player you can bank 100-110 points from most weeks.

50/50:

Steve Johnson ($455,000): If you are willing to take a risk that could either make or break your season, then Stevie J is your man. Stevie has dropped a huge $158,000 this season and has struggled for form. On the positive side he has a breakeven of just 73 and is virtually at basement price. He plays West Coast this week who he monstered for a season high of 168 last year and is slowly getting better. It is important to note that with Duncan being out for the majority of the season and Selwood still carrying his hand injury, he should get more midfield time.

A huge risk given his form. Could be a player that makes or breaks your year.

 

Rucks:

Buy:

Sam Jacobs ($544,000): If you are looking to upgrade in the rucks, then Sam Jacobs is your man. Jacobs has been huge lately with a three round average of just under 117 and is almost back to his starting price. With a breakeven of just 76, he shouldn’t be cheaper any time soon. Does come up against Sandy this week but should be able to get enough of the ball around the ground to get a 100.

If you can handle another player with around 11 bye he is the perfect upgrade for the 30% of the competition that still own Tom Bellchambers.

Mark Blicavs ($495,000): I must admit I didn’t believe Blicavs was capable of producing what he has so far this year and he doesn’t look like stopping any time soon. Blicavs has increased $139,000 from his starting price and with a breakeven of just 69 there is more to come. Has only one score under 93 in his last 6 and looks unstoppable right now.

If you are struggling to find the cash to get Jacobs or Martin, he is a good option with a round 13 bye.

Avoid:

Todd Goldstein ($501,000): Goldstein has plummeted back down to Earth and down in price in the last 3 weeks. He has lost a whopping $74,000 in that time. With a breakeven of 133 there is more of the same to come in the next few rounds. Goldstein plays Collingwood, West Coast and Sydney in his next three. He has scores of 72, 49 and 67 in his last match against each of these teams.

Could be a steal after his round 13 bye when he will be severely under-priced.

 

Forwards:

Buy:

Lance Franklin ($481,000): Franklin struggled against his former team last weekend, scoring just 46 points. It also showed with a price drop of $23,000. Despite having a breakeven of 116, I would strongly consider trading Franklin in this week. Sydney plays Carlton and Gold Coast in their next two and if they dish up more of the same he could be in for something huge.

It is a gamble picking Buddy with a high breakeven and only one hundred in his last 5 but I am willing to take the punt that he can destroy the league’s worst 2 teams in the coming fortnight.

Tom Mitchell ($509,000): Much like Buddy this could be the cheapest you see Mitchell for a long time. Mitchell has a lowest score of 95 in the four consecutive matches he has now played. He has a breakeven of just 71 and matches against Carlton and Gold Coast that could produce monster scores.

As long as he can keep his place in the side and Longmire happy, he should be a top 6 forward come season end.

Brett Deledio ($498,000): Deledio has dropped $50,000 this season, mostly due to an Achilles problem. He looks to have gotten over the worst of this and with back to back hundreds is still under-priced for what he can produce. Has a breakeven of just 72 and if he can stay healthy should be very close to a top six forward for the rest of the year.

Looks to be getting back to his best but may depend on your bye structure.

Robbie Gray ($566,000): Now the most expensive forward in the competition and also has the highest average for any forward who has played five or more games. Gray has a three round average of 119 and a breakeven of just 86. He should increase in price in the coming weeks and with matches against Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Geelong and Carlton should add to his tally of four straight hundreds.

Has a very hand round 13 bye and is worth every cent.

Avoid:

Steven Motlop ($477,000): If you are looking for a slightly cheaper premium I would suggest you stay away from Motlop. He has the ability to reach his breakeven of 117 but has begun to attract a tag and his scores have suffered as a result. He has just 49 and 79 in his last two. He is not the worst option out there and does have a round 13 bye but there are better options for slightly more coin.

Capable of a big score but too inconsistent at this stage.

 

Good luck to everyone this week and I hope your trades pay off. (Stay Calm and Pick Rocky)

33 Comments

  • IMO Simpson is worth getting in this week. In coming weeks the ball will stay in the Carlton backline and simmo will be picking up plenty of +6’s. Last week He showed us what he is capapable of even when his team are loosing and scored a nice 115 or so.a BE of 82 shows just how underpriced he is. Anyone else got another opinion???would really love to hear it:)

  • Great article. Looking seriously at Deledio and Hodge this week. Would either be Oxley to Hodge or Cripps to Deledio. I think Deledio might be better value at 100k less and I can’t see Hodge averaging a lot more. Thoughts on the better option? Cheers

    • It’s a tough one mate. If you are purely playing the breakeven and price game then the better value is in Deledio. What you have to consider, is if the value in Deledio is more important than the huge score Hodge may pump out against the Suns. Did you also consider that if like many of us you are stacked with round 12 bye players trading out Oxley will help in that regard? Personally I would go with Hodge, simply on his potential for something massive in the next two weeks but both are great trades.

  • Trade in Jacobs vs Freo this week? Are you mad??

    • completely agree here – only 4 ruckman have broken 70 vs the Sandi/Clarke combo this year, for a peak of only 80

      • 100% I had jacobs in this week til I researched that. Took Mummy instead vs cordy this week + r13 bye

        • You can’t really go wrong with Mummy this week, that’s a good call. In terms of Jacobs, you do make a valid point that going against Freo’s ruckmen will be tough. I would simply say that you are getting one of the two premier ruckmen of the competition, at basement price and in sublime form. His score may be slightly affected going against Sandy, but I would still be backing him in to get close to a 100. This also allows you not to worry about trading him in later.

  • Is it worth getting hodge this week as a pod in my match then get rocky next week?

    • Definitely wouldn’t go Rocky next week. He has the bye the week after! One or the other this week. Consider their averages against their upcoming opponents. Hodge averages 120 against both of the teams. Rocky only averages 80 against both of the teams. One is a tad too pricey, the other one is cheap for what he is capable of. I would go Hodge, then go Rocky after his bye.

    • It is definitely worth considering. I would be backing Hodge in for the bigger score this week and most likely next. That being said, Rocky should still go big. The main concern I have with this strategy is if you suffer a few injuries in the next few weeks you may be unable to get Rocky and this could hurt you more long term. Personally I would go with Rocky however Hodge could be the point of difference that gives you a win this week.

      • oooooo one calls the other. what to do!! im not worried about byes so would it be better to go hodge then rocky regardless of where their byes are?

  • Great article Lampe! Much similiar to mine! Boyd’s scores are great, but his durability really does concern me. He is out almost every third week and you can’t afford that to happen if you’ve only got a Schade or someone like that on your bench.

    Hodge looks very tempting. I mentioned Simmo as a POD choice in my article on Tuesday. I’m saving cash and going Simmo as I think they will score similiar.

    Love the forward line at the moment. Buddy, geez he looks nice. Lids is in great form and Smith is in ripping form as well.

    I’m personally getting Rocky after his bye. He only scored averages 70 against the Saints and a little bit more against the Suns. Should still get the ton.

    My plan is to strengthen my backline at the moment. I’m trading in Simmo as a result. Should average 90-100 from now to seasons end. My midfield is stacked, so I have to be a bit careful.

    Keep up the good work!

    • Thanks Benjo, appreciate it mate! Really enjoyed your article yesterday, was a fascinating read.

      Yep, the point you make with Boyd is a good one. I just look at his run ahead and can’t go past him. I am taking that exact risk as I have Schade on my bench and really don’t want that score.

      Simpson is an interesting one, he is definetly under-priced and we all know what he is capable of. Personally for me, he is someone for after his bye however I more then understand why you and many others are looking at him this week. Could be a genius trade if it pays off.

      I agree with strengthening the backline, that’s what i’m doing as I already picked up Rocky last week.

      Will be interesting to see how the weekend plays out and have a chat about it next week:)

      • I need to take some risks, to try and boost my ranking up. I’m not going Rocky this week, but I’m going Simmo instead.

        Unfortunately, Yeo needs to be traded out as I’ll get a below par score with Schade on my field. I was considering keeping Yeo, but Schade against the Hawks :O Doubt if he’ll get a touch haha.

  • What does everyone see Hodge averaging for the season as opposed to Deledio?

    • Hodge: 95-110
      Deledio: 95-110

      Basically no difference. Richmond have a tougher draw though, which is why I’d go Hodge.

      • to some of the points below. it’s not the pts average but the comparison of points per position.

        A defender averaging 95-110 is much more valuable than a forward averaging the same!

        • Very good point. If hodge was 550k it’d be a no brainer for me. It’s just that I value that extra 100 dearly. Is Hodge worth 600k is the question? For that sort of coin you want a guaranteed 105-110 player and I’m not really sure if he can get there.95-100 about his ballpark I feel

  • Is the 100k difference worth it though? Could really come in handy for future upgrades

    • I would say: Hodge between 100-115
      Deledio 95-105
      Similar to what Benjo thinks, but Hodge a little higher.

      Honestly, it’s a toss of the coin on the 100k difference. It really depends what you can do with it. If it allows you to get a super premo that adds another 20 points then it could be, but it depends on your individual team and future trades.

      • Another factor is def options vs fwd ones. Hodge, Mundy and Boyd are CLEARLY a 10-15 point average higher than every other defender, so having him is a real must have. Fwds have Gray, Swanny, Dartin, Titchell, Goddard, Bartel to come back etc, Lids has more alternatives and therefore is less must have. Not that Lids isn’t a perfectly valid option, just not having him will be less damaging once you’ve got a full team.

  • I look at Hodge and think we’ll his best season average is 103, he may well beat that this year, but like Deledio he could also cap a few tags. Deledio has been around that 95-100 average for a few years now with a best of 110 in 2012. Hodge will our score Deledio in the next 2 weeks no doubt, but I’m looking at it more as an overall season trade than just the short term. Truth is I’ve got a few rookies that I’m not convinced will make a lot more coin Schade, Glenn, Mcintosh, Clark etc as well as two non- playing rookie rucks, so the 100k could well come in handy over the next few weeks

  • So I have a problem.. As everyone else.. I want to get rid of Risky so I can move Yeo into my midfield so I don’t have a zero on my defence and need a bit more cash for hodge. So I was thinking of getting rid of Salem and and picking up a rookie but not sure which to go for? Cheers fellas

  • Or even a different defender like Boyd.

    Also quick question.. How does the bye structure work? I heard that your highest scoring 16 players will be used? Is this correct?

    • As far as defenders go I would consider Fletcher Roberts and Harris Andrews still due to his job security (Although he will not make that much more cash). If you really want to take a risk you could go Clurey, as that will free up almost 200k from Salem. Be warned though he is a huge chance to be dropped when Trengrove is back, so be prepared for that.

      Unfortunately you are a bit light on as far as rookie defenders go.

  • Defender under 463k?

    • I would either go Heath Shaw or James Kelly. Both have screwed me over in the past and I have placed them on the never again list, but we all know that never truly lasts. As much as it pains me to say it I would go Shaw over Kelly. You could sit either at d5 or d6 for the rest of the year and be satisfied.

  • What do you Guys think of Murdoch from Geelong? He’s 370k on dream team and scored 137 last week. I haven’t watched the games but some have said he’s taken up Duncan’s role.

  • Personally I wouldn’t go near him mate. He has scored well in his last two, however anyone can do that on occasion. To be honest I am not sure if he has taken up Duncan’s role but I would guess it is a number of players who will be rotated through and fill the void. If you are determined to get him, this is the week as his breakeven is only 8.

  • Lampe, I already have clurey. He’s sitting on my bench. Is mcinnis worth taking on board for a couple of weeks to earn some cash? Also I can either take a forward or a defender rookie..