Brownlow Medal Form Guide 2014

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The AFL’s night of night’s is here one again, the 2014 Brownlow Medal count. We have attached here the annual Special Report from the CBA that has a special model they use for predicting this years’ winner.

DOWNLOADCBA 2014 Brownlow report.pdf

brownlowbestThey’re saying that Gary Ablett and Josh Kennedy will tie on 25 votes each. According to the model, both players reach 25 votes before getting injured. Have they got enough to hold off the chasers?

This year’s model has gone back to basics. Last year they experimented with individual player attributes to see if they could improve the model’s fit. However, it was found that it tended to reward players the year after they played well.

This year, they’ve reverted to the simpler model used in 2012 where points are awarded for Kicks, Handballs, Goals and Hitouts. Players on the winning team also gain an advantage that rises as the margin rises. The final two variables are the score percentage and the difference between the Supercoach score and the Dream Team score.

The Score Percentage captures the notion that kicking 4 goals when your team kicks 10 for the match is more important than kicking 4 when your team kicks 30 goals. The Supercoach less Dream Team score captures efficiency.

The Supercoach scores are adjusted to reflect efficiency and when the game is still undecided while Dream Team votes are not. A player with a small number of pivotal touches at clutch times will have a much higher Supercoach score than Dream Team score. They tend to win more Brownlow votes too.

DOWNLOADCBA 2014 Brownlow report.pdf

People like to have a punt on the Brownlow, if you’re one of those make sure firstly you’re over 18 and you are gambling responsibly – always bet within your limits.

1 Comment

  • If you believe this, then there are some good bets at Sportingbet.

    Scott Thompson (13 votes prediction) to get most votes for Adelaide is paying $6 with Dangerfield (11 votes) the hot favourite at $1.70. Sloane (9 votes) is second favourite at $2.60.

    For GWS, Callan Ward (7 votes) is at $1.65 with Devon Smith (9 votes) at $5.00. Votes too close for mine, tough call.

    If you back in Matthew Boyd (11 votes) as the top scorer, he’s at $4.25 and Liberatore (9 votes) $2.25 and Macrae (9 votes) $2.75. Griffen (7 votes) is at $5.50. Again, too close.

    I can’t see Nick Riewoldt (7 votes) getting beaten by Leigh Montagna (7 votes) despite the two looking like ending up on equal votes. You can get Montagna at $9.00.