Jobe Watson – Deck of Dream Team 2014

dec10_jobewatsonName: Jobe Watson
Club: Essendon
Position: Midfielder
AFL Fantasy: $534,000
AFL Dream Team: $538,200
Bye Round: 10
2013 Average: 98.5
2013 Games Played: 19
Predicted Average: 108

Why should I pick him?

I’ve started with the captain of the club I support because he is close to being the first picked for me. In 2012 Jobe Watson had his fantasy breakout season averaging over 100 for his first time with 112.4 AFL Fantasy points whilst playing every game. 17 of his scores were over 100 including 9 of them 120+.

Oh yeah… he also won the Brownlow Medal!

This year Watson comes in under-priced after a few down games to go with a red-vest when he broke is collarbone during the first quarter in Round 15 for only 16 points. He missed three games before coming back for 113, 120, 121, 104 and 73 to finish the season.

Apart from his injury affected game, Watson didn’t finish with under 20 disposals throughout this season or the last. He is certainly an accumulator of the ball! For fantasy, I worry about Jobe’s handball happy game. This has improved over the last three seasons as back in 2010 he had a 1:1.7 kick to handball ratio. Over the last three years it’s been in the positives with more kicks than handballs. Hopefully this can continue in 2014.

Another factor in his average drop in 2013 was the tough year he had off the field. The Bombers drug scandal can’t have been good for the captain of the club but his numbers were still as high as ever. Even after that night when he admitted to being injected with AOD-9604 on “On The Couch”, the following game against West Coast he had 122 fantasy points. My point being here is that it should be a much more positive season for the captain off the field which should translate to better on field performances.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Looking back over his AFL Fantasy career, Jobe Watson hasn’t really proven himself to be a premium midfielder. I was surprised that he hadn’t averaged over 100 points before 2012 but in the three years leading into that he averaged 91, 94.9 and 99.5 to be a fair consistent, and gradually improving, fantasy player. The question still remains in my head about whether he actually is a 110+ type player.

One of the main reasons was the aforementioned kick to handball ratio. I did say he’s improved but it is only slightly over 1:1 in favour of kicks. Nothing like our favourite fantasy pig in Swanny at over 1.5:1. Some examples of poor kick to handball this year was in his last game against Richmond with 8:17 (74 points going head to head with Cotchin), against GWS with 7:14 (54 points being tagged by Townsend) and 6:14 against Fremantle (65 points while being tagged by de Boer).

This bring up the next point… Watson can be tagged and kept to low scores. He more often than not breaks the tags but for consistency sake, it’s not a great thing to cop a sub-80 type score from a guy who you have in your side to be averaging 105+.

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE – I think with the Bombers drug scandal dying down (well, I hope so anyway), Jobe Watson can get back to his best without that other rubbish in the background. I did think he was going to be my first picked but I am second guessing myself due to only one year averaging over 100 and the whole kick to handball/tag stuff. I still think he’ll improve and as I have predicted him to average 108, he’s currently in my starting squad… but it is only December 10!

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25 Comments

  • Nice start Warnie. It’s going to be the perennial question of Watson or Stanton?

    • I’ve never owned Stanton, and I don’t plan to, based solely on the complaints of those who have owned him. It seems (from the outside) like he is a very frustrating team-member!

      • Stanton seems to start the year off really well and then fade, i’m considering starting with him and trading him at his bye if possible

        • I can see that logic. He has just moved to my “consider” pile

          • I started with him this year and can’t really complain. He started strongly as I’d hoped. The hard thing is deciding exactly when/if to trade him out. This difficulty, plus having to address other issues in my team, meant that I ended up trading him out after round 22 and only with a total average of 101. Then the bite me on the arse, he scored 149 in the GF whilst his replacement Jelwood scored 90-odd. I think that’s a good example of the frustration and apprehension that he gives his owners who try to ride his peaks and avoid his troughs.

        • I know we have 44 trades but i don’t like to plan to trade out premos cause we all know after last year injuries can reek havoc on our team. I’m of the opinion round to select premos for the year cause it sucks trying to try and trade a player in a form slump when injuries and byes hit

  • If not for his hamstrings in 2011 and collarbone in 2013 he would have 3 straight years of 100+ so I think you’re under-selling his status as a premium mid.

    There are a couple other better value mids imo but his round 10 bye might be enough to sneak into my team.

  • Good start to the Deck, Warnie.

    Is the trouble really over for Essendon, though? I’m a little scared that when the ASADA finding is actually handed down, he’ll cop it based on his confession.

    But other than that, I agree that he should go 105+ in 2014, so he’s firmly on my watchlist.

  • Great write up Warnie. Jobes a lock, well under-priced.

  • Watson is in every team I have put together so far, I can’t seem to leave the bloke out. Lock and throw away the key!

  • Cheers Warnie, great to have the Deck back! Started my team with Stanton the past 3 seasons and haven’t been disappointed, but he seemed to find it a little harder last year than previous years. So, Jobe may just replace him. That said, neither are in my starting squad at the moment.

    Cheers again!

  • interesting article warnie,but I don’t think watto will avg 108 tbh.

  • Great write up Warnie! But its a no from the great GK on Watson. Only one premium year and too many other, better options in the mids this year starting cheaper.

  • Nice article Warnie. I reckon the reason he didn’t average massive numbers prior to 2012 was simple- he was still improving. He’s reached his peak now as a footballer and I reckon that if he stays fit, physically and mentally, he should go 105+. He’s one of my five premiums at the moment (along with Scooter, Rocky, Cotch, Beams), but is being challenged (as all or them are, except for Beams) by the likes of Gaz, the Pig, and Stanton.

  • If you take out his injury affected 16, he actually averaged over 103. That looks ok to me! A starter in my team at this stage, cheers Warnie

  • Why would anyone want to have a drug cheat in their team?

  • Thanks for the write up Warnie, nice to see the return of the Deck! I am very 50/50 on Watson at this time – all comes down to how many better priced value mids I decide to go for. Thanks for the stats and background info.

  • Will be first chosen in the other game but on the fence at the moment in Fantasy. Will look at his early draw before selecting him.
    Great Article Warnie! Its now an excuse to crack a stubby! Only cause Calvin told me too ;)

  • Watson’s a great pick. We’re getting him about 30k cheaper than we should be, if you take out his injury-affected 16. Averaged 103 without that 16. He’s likely to go 100+ again next year, jump on!

  • Definitely under priced with the ability to avg 110+. Could be a very good option. I started with Stanton last year and Jobe the year before that, must mean its Jobes turn again ;)

    I liked that he started to kick more goals and hes pretty hard to tag due to his size and strength. A reliable option I reckon.

  • The Deck is back and what a great start to it, Warnie! Watson has been in and out of my team and seems to be swapping with Barlow (due to their bye rounds falling on the same week). A very good pick IMO.

  • Absolute lock

  • for me its more fun to put in some blokes that ya like ,and most people have some we just wont pick because we don’t like them…Watson im happy to risk his hanball to kick ratio just because I like the way he goes about it,heez a gun and he’ll start in my team for sure