The Friday Scramble: Round 15

FridayScrambleRound 14 brought everything we expected.  Terrible scores, late withdrawals and just all around carnage!  If you managed to miss most of it then very well done!  What do we have to look forward to this week?  Well probably more of the same, but in the interim just have a look at your projected scores and pretend they are your actual scores!  That’s what I do to make myself feel better.

Even if the DT’ing isn’t sensational, what a fantastic round of footy we have ahead of us with at least 4 or 5 cracking games to watch.  I just hope that whilst I am watching them the scores of my players will continue to head north!

It’s a Freo Bonanza!

Well hasn’t Uncle Ross given us a big present this week naming a stack of guys to come back in with Barlow, Mundy, Sandilands and Pav just to name a few.  Certainly very handy “ins” for any side!  However, do we trust him?  They are playing the mid afternoon game on Sunday which tells me that Late Outs are certainly on the cards.

Come on… seriously you want to trust him, this is Ross Lyon we are talking about here?  Well I guess he can’t leave all of them out late.  But let’s have a quick look at each of them.

Michael Barlow – He is the most recent to be on the injured list thanks to a fractured face.  The word was that if they hadn’t had such a short turnaround last week that he would have played.  I don’t believe this for a second.  However, I do think he is a chance to play this week.  My one concern on him would be how much that injury plays on his mind and stops him going in to the contests.  I personally hope he is ok as I held him for that one week.

David Mundy – Has missed two weeks now with a calf injury!  Calf is fast becoming the new Four Letter Word in DT!  If he does come back you can afford to wait a week to see how he goes.  He has a BE of 110 and whilst they are playing the Saints he won’t cost you much more even if he does hit that number.

Aaron Sandilands – Hasn’t played a game this year, not even in the twos so he will be lacking a bit of match fitness.  Simply because his price won’t change you can afford to wait and see on him and that is what I would recommend.

Matthew Pavlich – The Pav struggled a bit in his first few games this year which led us to believe that he was carrying an injury and low and behold he succumbed to it in Round 3.  His Achillies simply couldn’t take it anymore!  If he comes back and is in form he could save a few forward lines that are certainly struggling this year. However, he has a BE of 150 so you most certainly want to wait for at least two weeks until that 49 cycles out of his scores.

So when you are weighing things up at the selection table this week, whilst we look like we have a plethora of options, really Barlow is the only one that I would be jumping on this week.

 Worth The Risk?

As we progress through the season we are now starting to get to the point where you are fairly sure of where you sit within your leagues.  Let’s be honest, league wins are what most of us are about now given that there are probably only a handful of us that are still capable of taking the number one spot (I know that I certainly can’t!).

So I wanted to have a quick look at the strategies you should be considering given your place on the ladder.  Now I know that most of you are in 5 leagues and that you are probably in different spots in each one, but I am sure there is always one that you care about more than others whether it be due to a side wager or bragging rights.  For me it a close call, but it probably is my work league, lets face it, I see these guys every day all year round, so the bragging rights are huge, as well as the rubbish I cop when I lose.

Top 4 – If you are sitting pretty in the top 4 then you don’t need to be making risky moves.  I would be sticking with the tried and true players so that you can keep your prized double chance.

5 – 8 – Take a couple of chances, if you play it safe you aren’t going to bust into the top 4 if you have the same players as everyone else.  You need to win a couple of key games.  But you don’t want to go all out as it may backfire and you could find yourself dropping out of the top 8.

9-12 – Go for it!  Pick some random guys based on your match ups each week.  You need to have some key points of difference to bust into the top 8.  You need to beat a few of the guys in the top 8 to get in there, so check out who your opponent has so that you can pick a viable POD.

13-18 – Well if you are still playing (and I am sure you are) you are in a very tough league obviously.  The key here is….. DON’T COME LAST!  No one wants to be 18th so trade hard and ride some points of difference to get you some wins.  You have to take some calculated risks!

Now nothing I have said here should be earth shattering to you, I guess I wanted to remind you all that playing it safe is not going to get you back up into the 8 or top 4 if you are currently outside.

#AskDunny

Scramble4JulyTweet6

This is a great question that will have many coaches scratching their heads this week.  As you know, everything that we say is always to stick by your Premiums.  However, in this case you would be justified for taking a different view here.  Cotchin has been down on form whereas Tom Mitchell has been killing  it lately and is up against Melbourne at the MCG this week.  Cotchin is playing North Melbourne at Etihad.  In this instance I actually think their scores could be very close and I think I actually give the edge to Mitchell here but purely for one week only given that it is a very favourable matchup (well they have GWS the following week so maybe two weeks).  If you are concerned about Cotchin going forward then you should be looking at trading him out for another premium that you know will get the job done.

Scramble4JulyTweet7

The simple answer here is no.  In the world of constrained trades then yes you could have done that for a week here and there.  But in this unlimited trades world that we find ourselves in if you have an underperforming premium and no injury or suspension trades to do then you should be trading them out.  You can’t afford to have big dollars on the bench.  The other thing to consider would also be who you are replacing them with on the field.  Is it another premium that you can trust or is it a rookie that could be hit or miss.  You simply can’t take the risk on a rookie when you have a ‘trade to burn’ just sitting there.  You should only be considering playing premiums on the bench if you have other issues to deal with and can’t trade.  As with the question above, in that case the only reason that Cotchin would be on the bench is that Mitchell has a very favourable matchup, but it isn’t a tactic that I would use for more than one week (well two if they had Melb and GWS back to back).  Mitchell is still a rookie and is a risk now that other clubs have had a chance to see him, he isn’t a walk up start to get 100 each and every week like you should get if you traded Cotchin for someone like Sam Mitchell or Pendles.

Scramble4JulyTweet5

This really comes down to what your bank balance looks like.  If you need cash then you should be cashing in Goodes to Clisby.  As you said you don’ t need him on the field which means that you are purely doing it for the cash as you will certainly lose points on that trade.  As for Ellis to Ibbotson, I think that would be a great trade.  Ellis has a high BE and his average is certainly lower than that of Ibbotson.  I think that I would probably do the Ellis to Ibbotson trade as it should get you about another 20 points based on their current averages and Ellis seems to have had only those three big scores in a row and then hasn’t had too much other than that. On top of that I love Freo’s run home from here.

Scramble4JulyTweet4

I can’t believe I am saying it, but following on from question above I think that Ibbotson is the next best.  He certainly is by averages.  However, I must say I did like him in his rookie year and had actually looked at him before this season started as I think he has a good upside.  Clearly I was right!  I think that Corey Enright is also good, but I really think he will get a rest or two before the finals so you may want to stay away.  I think that Heath Shaw will improve and should be in the top 6 by the end of the year and Michael Hibberd is another one that has really come out of the box this year and is averaging 88.7 and is still priced under $400k so should be considered.  What I notice here is that we are seeing some new names come in that we may not have previously considered.

Scramble4JulyTweet3

Ok, so I am not the best person to answer this question, and I did kind of pick this question to make a shameless plug, but the best place to find the answers to all of your bubble boy / debutant questions is of course in Jeppa’s Juniors on Wednesday mornings.  Just because we are now looking at fairly full teams with only a couple of rookies, doesn’t mean we still shouldn’t be on the lookout for what is happening.  Certainly Jeppa hasn’t stopped watching the rookies for us!

Scramble4JulyTweet2

At the start of the season I actually wrote that I think Broadbent was a massive breakout chance.  He had a great season last year and was building, but this year inconsistency has crept into his game and he as also found himself on the wrong side of a green vest too.  When the Power are winning he has been very good, but in the losses he has gone missing… and badly at times.  So I don’t know that I would take him in my team just at the moment, but if you are looking for a very risky Point of Difference in a key matchup and Port have an easier opponent then I think that it could be worth that risk.

Scramble4JulyTweet1

Wow, another tough question.  At the start of the season we would have dismissed this as the easiest decision in the world!  However, Cotchin has been struggling of late whereas O’Meara has been playing really well.  Their averages are within one point of each other and Jaeger actually has the lower BE.  My main concern with Jaeger is that I think he will be rested soon whereas Cotchin as the captain of the club won’t be getting a rest any time soon.  However, with 44 trades you can work around that.  My gut feel tells me that Cotchin will improve, so in this case I think that I would trade out Jaeger as I think he will be getting a rest or a vest soon.  But this is a really tight call, you could be forgiven for going either way!

 

Things to Remember

  • Not all those Freo guys will fire… some of them will take a bit of time to get their touch back
  • Raines is back in for Brisbane so be careful of selecting Ablett for captain
  • Check back with Calvin’s Captains as he now has his top 5 up after team selections.
  • You don’t have to hold premiums like you used to with our 44 trades these days.

My team had a fair week but were certainly below par last week with only 2022 which still saw me win most of my games which was mostly by luck!  This week I hope to fair a bit better but am looking forward to having Stevie J back next week!

Keep an eye out at most of the games in Melbourne this week as I will be heading over this morning to attend 4 of them (by the time you read this I am probably already in Melbourne).  Looking forward to a massive weekend of footy and maybe the odd beer or two may be consumed!  Some really big blockbusters that will be big not only from a DT point of view but a real game point of view too!  Give me a follow on Twitter @pkd73 and I will let you know any last minute rumours I hear before lockout.

95 Comments

  • Good stuff Dunny. Certainly got me thinking. Too much. 2 questions:
    B.Goodes or Hanley on the field?
    Josh Kennedy or Titchell on the field?

    • Hanley vs GC
      Titch vs Melb and Kennedy has some good ADEL defenders to deal with

      • I have Hanley and backing him to rebound. Decent score and performance last week, should be 80ish vs goodes just back from injury

    • im guessing you mean Josh, P Kennendy, in which case i would play him as he is obviously player melbourne as well. also play hanley,

  • Who for Captain….. Liberatore or Ablett?

  • Should I trade Cotchin or go from vlast to ibbotson in defense?

    • I woud look at it this way….

      Both Vlaustin and Cotchin are playing against North Melbourne, a game that is likely to be close, if not tough match.

      We all know how offensive North Melbourne are, so if they play decently, the ball should go into Richmond’s defence a lot. This means plenty of opportunities for Vlaustin.

      Therefore I would think that Vlaustin will outscore Cotchin, but not by much, so I would go Cotchin out.

      • As with all these questions it rather depends on one’s individual circumstances. Where are your weaknesses, is cash or points a priority etc

  • Hey Phoenix (correct spelling), don’t waste space. The answer is in Calvin’s Captains.

  • Vlastuin to clisby for cash and Hrovat to Watson or Stanton , which one i don’t know ???

  • Is it worth holding Boyd for a week so I can get in Clisby and McKenzie to make some cash for future upgrades? Team looks like this.

    Def: Goddard, Heppell, Gibbs, Hartlett, Johnson, Terlich (Staker, Thurlow)
    Mid: Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Watson, Swallow, Boyd, Barlow, Deledio (Mitchell, Martin)
    Ruck: Coz, Kreuzer (Nicholls, Currie)
    Fwd: Martin, Rockliff, Franklin, Kennedy, Zorko, SJ (Mcaffer, Daniher)

    Thurlow and Martin out to Clisby and Mckenzie will leave me with 335k in the bank. I can then upgrade Staker and Mcaffer for starters and sideways Boyd leaving Mitchell at M9.

    Good idea or trade Boyd now?

    • i have same problem. because i have omeara on bench i think it’s worth holding boyd if you have other trades you want to make. but if i didn’t have omeara (or mitchell in your case) then replacing boyd would be a priority

    • It all depends if you’re going for a league win or chasing points. If it is a sure win for you this week then you can afford to make some cash this week. Otherwise, get rid of Boyd so you can replace him for someone that will get you a good score this week.

    • I also have Kmart and since his not playing he won’t lose or make cash whereas vlastuin for me was on my mid bench I downgraded to Mckenzie leaving me a sh&$load of cash next week to turn Kmart into GAJ….If I were you I would go Boyd to Mckenzie and play titchell he should go 90+ against the dees then turn Kmart into a premo next week…boyd needs to go ASAP his no good to you on bench and I’m positive titchell will provide cover this week and go big

      • I’m trading Boyd but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s back next week. Murphy & Barlow both had similar injuries and both only missed 1 game I think?

  • Wondering who to play on the field?
    2 of Goodes / Vlaustin / Staker.
    Mitchell or Crouch

    • Goodes and Vlas. Don’t think Staker has scored over about 65 in all his amtches
      Mitchell v Melbourne

      • Yes def goodes and vlas before staker…Mitchell or crouch I would say flip a coin this week Mitchell vs dees and crouch at AAMI vs weagles I’d go Mitchell by a ball hair

  • In a bit of a pickle, Griffin, O’keefe or Stanton to replace Boyd?

    • i have this feeling that stanton is due for his monthly explosion

      • Also around $30,000 cheaper…reckon best option is him?

        • i would go stanton yes. although this week griffins potential score is infinity. okeefe is solid but he doesn’t have the upside stanton has.

          • I have 275,000 in the bank, so if all goes well I may pick up Griffin next week. Cheers mate

  • I was thinking of trading Ellis to malceski… Since malceski has a good run home and averages 18.6 kicks a game! Thoughts?

    • I’d keep Ellis, can you upgrade a Goodes or Vlas to Malceski? Ellis will be a better D7 than those two I’d think

  • What premo would be the biggest chance of being risk/reward so far? Was gonna play it safe and trade in Watson but now feel as if I need to take a risk to get on top with 2 hard games coming up.
    My midfield is
    Gablett. Swan. Stanton. Dangerfield. Sloane. Cotchin. S.Selwood. T.Mitchell
    Hrovat, Evans

    I have $$ in the bank and I’m trading out Selwood for the premo so cash is not a worry.

    • I’d say Jack for you … you have a few guys who can go bang or bust in Stanton and Danger so perhaps the consistently good Jack is what you need, especially with his run coming up!

    • If its just the two next games your worried about, safest bet is to go a Swans premium(Jack/Okeefe/JPK), if not theres a few other guys with an easy game in the next two, Barlow, Redden, Griffen. If I was taking the latter idea of taking a guy with one of next two easy games, I would take a guy having the easy round this round as you never know what might happen between now and next week!

      • thanks guys, had ROK is mind after watching DTLive anyways so might take the punt and go with him.

        • Do not under any circumstances get JPK yes he probably will go ok next 2 but he is not top 8 mid for DT just look at his stats, can’t go wrong with jack or ROK

  • Should I play Titchell or O’Meara as M8 this week?

  • Looking to downgrade Rowe this week in rucks, is currie or Naismith more likely to get a game?

    • Not much chance of either breaking in this yr

    • I’d say Currie.. Naismith has a band aid on at the moment and SYD’s ruck stocks are deep (Mumford, Pyke, Tippett and White). If you’re looking for an R4 I’d say pick the cheapest RUC as points won’t matter – you can always look to bring on a RUC on the bubble later on with the 44 trades. If you’re chasing for $$$ then Witts is the next best option but he won’t be a cash cow.

    • If its for r4 just buy a 89k spud and collect the 100k made of Rowe to spend elsewhere at this stage of DT r4 should not be required

  • DEF: Goddard, Gibbs, Heppell, Ibbotson, Scotland, Vlastuin (Laird, Clisby)
    MID: Swan, Ablett, Pendlebury, Barlow, Jack, Priddis, Cotchin (Mitchell, Martin)
    RUC: Cox, Kreuzer (Blicavs, Nicholls)
    FWD: Bartel, Johnson, Franklin, Rockliff, Kennedy, Naitanui (Macaffer, Staker)

    170k remaining
    I was initially thinking Vlastuin to Enright and Macaffer to Martin and that would leave my team full of premiums, however I now have Scotland and K.Martin out and still want to trade Vlastuin and macaffer and cotchin. What do you guys think I should do and who should I get in?

    Sorry for posting a lot, this will be my last

    • Hanley could be worth the risk at 350k then you could drop Cotch for Griffen? Otherwise Enright is very solid (risks being rested) and bring in a cheap Watson for Cotch. I’d be sitting macaffer another week with no decent FWD rookies around this week

    • What about vlast ( chance of green vest ) to enright bench Scotland play Clisby , leave Caff this week covering for SJ trade cotch to Mckenzie play titchell… Next week Caff and Kmart gawn

  • “13-18 – ……DON’T COME LAST! ”

    well, don’t come 17 or 18 in position – even if you come 16th, you can play in league finals. Can’t play in finals from 17th

  • Vlas – clisby
    thurlow – ibbot

    vlas – clisby
    goodes – ROK

    • Depends on your team lineup

      • def – hep, god, gibbs, hanley, hibberd, vlas (thurlow, laird)

        mids – swan, ablett, pendals, cotchin, k.jack, watson, barlow, t.mitch (crouch, goodes)

        • I’d go with the first option otehrwise you’ll have titchell on the bench who’s playing Melbourne?

  • Thoughts on Ben Kennedy (on field, must trade this week) for K. Tippett? He’ll sit at F6. Thinking Tippett might break 120+ a few times before the years out as well. Otherwise I could bring in Stokes for Macaffer but risk Bennedy bleeding points

    FWD: JJK, Martin, Bartel, Cox, Stevie J, Macaffer, B. Kennedy and T. Lee.
    with 145k to play with (already brought in Clisby this week)

    • think tippet would be a great player to have as a F7 or 8… incase you need to cover…

      think this week and next he will get high 90’s

  • or

    vlas – clisby
    thurlow – stanton

  • Always love reading my Friday Scramble in the morning, thanks again for answering my questions Dunny!
    Although one was not answered, could you please help?
    I am going to upgrade either Goodes or Vlastuin this round, the other will be my D7 for the rest of the year, thoughts on who to trade and who to keep?

    • Didn’t warnie and the boys cover this? I’m pretty sure the general consensus was for vlast to stay D7 and trade goodes…if you were NOT keeping both then trade vlast this week as he has high BE

      • Ahh, ok thanks. Haven’t got the chance to watch the show yet, but was planning to in an hour or so.

  • Thinking trading one of my benched defenders who are injured like Thurlow for Clisby then Macaffer for either Roughhead or Ffye. or could trade out ben kennedy for clisby and have an extra 100k spare. but wont have any back up defenders playing on the bench. any thoughts?

  • Just quietly have a look at Michael Johnson. Averageing close to 100 in his last 5 and a sweet run home.

    Freo love him as the lose man.

    Will get you 80 but a strong possiblity to kick that to 100 each week.

    I’ll be bringing him in for Vlastin this week.

    • Supposedly he didn’t train today so a chance of not playing on the weekend with his dodgy knee

  • DEF: Goddard, Heppell, Ellis*, Shaw, Waters, Goodes (Staker, Duffield*)
    MID: Gaz, Swan, Watson, Barlow, Priddis, Fyfe, Gibbs, Titch (Crouch, Scooter*)
    RUC: Cox, Krooze (Bliz, Nicholls)
    FWD: Dusty, Roughhead, Lewis, Macaffer*, Kennedy, Sumner (Rowe, Dwyer)

    $20K in the kitty

    Issues:
    Duffield/Scooter bandaided
    Macaffer will bleed $ if I keep him (BE 115)
    Ellis underperforming and about to bleed further (BE 151)
    I’d like some $ for upgrades next week

    Ideas:
    Scooter to Pendles or ROK (scooter = too $$ and too long out to hold)
    Macaffer to Buddy (close to 1:1 $price wise!, bargin trade)
    Ellis/Duffield to Ibbotson/Clisby

    currently 6th in League (by good%) and need to consolidate.

    thoughts:
    ensure i maintain mid premo by trading scooter
    or stem potential $ haemorrhages with above FWD and BACK trades (if so, which?)

  • Roughhead Cloke or Fyfe?

    • I have fyfe and been disappointed to tell the truth he could potentially be on chopping block after this round as I will be getting GAJ next week. Freo vs saints at home there is NO reason barring injury fyfe shouldn’t ton up if you could wait a week to see..his last 5 avg is 89 so really not great

  • crouch or goodes with the (E) on them incase t.mitchell goesnt play?

    as t.mitchell is listed as emergency.

    • Titchell will play, goodes is guaranteed 80 whereas crouch maybe not so, safest bet goodes for E

  • Can Someone Please help so stuck on what backman to bring in 446k or under. I have narrowed down to a few people

    As it stands my backline is currently: Goddard Gibbs Malceski Hartlett Terlich and Scotland for whom I will be replacing with the 440k person

    Enright – will get rested later in the season.

    Johnson – Don’t no if he can be trusted with ross lyon

    Houli – Was going well not so much now.

    Waters – The one Im looking at mostly becase back from injury and back to back 85+ scores

    McCkenzie- not to sure

    Hibberd- Could also be good but no to sure

    Really leaning towards Thoughs would be grealty appreciated

    • Johnson or hibberd for me, leaning towards Johnson look at his stats for last 6 disregarding last weeks flogging to Geelong they are great stats

      • Johnson is a chance of not playing this week – didnt train and knee has been dodgy

  • Midfield consists of:

    ablett, swan, pendles, barlow, stanton, priddis, boyd, mitchell

    who should i get in for boyd: griffen/o’keefe/jack/cornes or any other suggestions?

    • Struggling with the same thing myself. I value consistency pretty highly, but I can’t go past Griff this year – has been awesome.

      Out of the box thinking, but depending on how much cash you have and any further upgrades, Gaff may be an option?

  • who is a better pick up, ROK or Kieran Jack?

    • Long term safe bet jack, next 2 rounds ROK will go big but after that I’m not convinced. Jack is already a lock in top 10 mids, so depending on the rest of your team and future trades ie can you afford to unload ROK after 2/3 rounds or just lock jack for remainder of season

    • for consistent 100’s k.jack is your man…

      for monster scores every now and then with sub 70’s… ROK is your man…

  • do I start tom mitchell or o’meara on field?

  • Thoughts on trading in Beau Waters for Scotland ?

    • good trade… waters will get you 80-90’s if he can stay injury free

  • Who to bring in and why ?
    Out of

    Waters
    Enright
    Houli
    Hibberd ?

  • My team:

    DEF: Goddard, Heppell, Duffield, Gibbs, Vlastuin, Clisby (J.Webster, J.Thurlow)

    MIDS: G.Ablett, D.Swan, M.Barlow, T.Cotchin, N.Fyfe, P.Dangerfield, K.Jack, T.Mitchell (N.Kommer, N.Hrovat)

    RUCKS: D.Cox, M.Blicavs (T.Nicholls, D.Currie)

    FWDS: J.Kennedy, J.Bartel, Martin, L.Franklin, Rockliff, B.Staker (S.Johnoson, S.Rowe)

    $420,600 in the bank

    Trade Options:

    Vlastuin to Ibo, Leaves me with $313,700 in the bank

    For my second trade its looking like i’ll have to trade Out Thurlow or Webster, Not sure who to bring in theres not really any downgrade options i already have clisby got him last week paid off well :) if i upgrade it wont leave me with alot a cash to spend next week. thoughts how i good go about using my second trade??

    Thoughts on my team overall? Trade thoughts and suggestions??

  • ellis to ibbotson or
    omeara to okeefe

    also if ben kennedy isnt the sub who do i play on my field out of staker and kennedy?

  • Swan has scored 14 tons in his last 15 games against Carlton with a low of 97 in the one game he didn’t get to 100…….. wouldn’t rule him out as captain so easily

  • Who should be captain this week out of GAJ, Pendles and Jack?

    • Pendles will get the Carrazo tag, so too risky.

      Jack for risk/reward. He could get you 90 or 140.

      GAJ for safety.

      • Depends who you are playing… see who they have if no GAJ, then lock it in

  • Should I play laird or Clisby this week?

  • I have Pittard & Thurlow on DEF bench. Was originally dropping Thurlow but now wondering if I should let him rot at D8 and axe Pittard instead? This would force me to use Clisby as my emergency, but would pocket me an extra $50,000.

    Pittard’s B/E is 73 this week. Thoughts?

  • Sydney have Melbourne obviously but who do others think is best 2 to start out of Ball, Tom Mitchell and Priddis. Leaning towards Ball and Priddis but Mitchell could go off against the Dees?

  • Who would you ruck?
    Tom Nicholls
    Nic Nat
    Lluenburger (soz about spelling)

  • Trading McCaffer out… for…
    Franklin
    Westhoff
    Christanson
    Bartel
    ?
    Thnx

  • Oi I need help real quick who to put captain. Ablett to be safe or jack as he’s playing melbourne