Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 14

jeppa_rd15Good quality rooks look to be long gone so it’s time to take a couple of calculated risks. At this stage of the season I feel that it is reasonable to sacrifice the last spot in each field position for a rookie that may or may not score well and play regularly. For example, if you have Tommy ‘Gun’ Mitchell as your M9 then you can take a punt and pick up a Brad McKenzie or Lachie Hunter as your M10. A potential dud at D8, M10, R4 & F8 is low risk with two trades per week so happy downgrading!

Three-Or-More Gamers

KEEPERS

Back to back tons from Dean Terlich (DEF, 112, $380,100 & BE 33) has many coaches reconsidering his position in their backlines. A few weeks ago I was content to leave Terlich as my D7 but in the last few rounds, he’s averaged 95 and more importantly, it appears that Neil Craig has given him a licence to push up the ground. Do not hesitate starting Terlich on the field this week and in the short term. Jaeger O’Meara (MID, 100, $421,200 & BE 66) just keeps on keeping on. In Round 14, the young maestro had 14 kicks, 18 handballs, 5 marks and a tackle against the Crows. If you managed to keep O’Meara over the bye rounds, well done.

Tom Mitchell (MID, 89, $288,100 & BE 16) was again named in the bests for the Swans in a wet and slippery contest against the Blues. Mitchell has averaged 103 to date and that is likely to be improved upon given that he faces the Dees, Giants and Eagles over the next three rounds. Mitchell has performed so well that this week, I’ll be starting him on my field ahead of Luke Ball! Long term however, Mitchell is my M9.

A surprise performer from the weekend was Brad Crouch (MID, 121, $277,200 & BE -14). His 31 possession (14 contested), 6 mark and 6 tackle game against the Suns saw him earn a rising star nomination and deservedly so. Crouch’s recent hunger for the contest and the football will see him increase significantly in value over the next few weeks. Ollie Wines (MID, 108, $332,900 & BE 45) also looks to have found another gear. He started the game in the green vest but came on at the four-minute mark of the second quarter after Cassisi went down with a hamstring injury. Wines scored 108 dreamteam points in less than three quarters and had 61 in the last quarter alone! I’m sure his owners hope he goes on with it.

Other notable performers from Round 14 include Mark Hutchings (MID, 91, $248,800 & BE -13), Luke Brown (DEF, 78, $240,500 & BE 30), Josh Thomas (MID, 93, $371,200 & BE 70) and Sam Dwyer (FWD/MID, 85, $314,500 & BE 74). Hold these blokes if you have them.

DON’T PANIC

Tom Nicholls (RUC, 68, $246,100 & BE 14) had his worst game of the season scoring only 68 but he is still the number one ruckman at the Gold Coast. Stick with Nicholls as your R3 till season’s end.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE            

As per usual, if I haven’t categorised a player from Round 14 under ‘Keepers’ or ‘Don’t Panic’ then trade them out as soon as you can.

Two Gamers

Mitchell Clisby (DEF, 72, $89,300 & BE -84) is my calculated risk this week. Neil Craig showed a lot of faith in Clisby after he gave him the job on the dangerous Dahlhaus. Not only did Clisby keep Dahlhaus quiet, he linked up regularly with teammates and finished with 18 possessions, 5 marks and 3 tackles. Clisby isn’t clean by hand or foot but he’s a competitor, he works hard and he has earned a spot in the Dees’ defence. With reasonable job security and a price tag of only $89,300, Clisby is in my opinion the best downgrade option this week but don’t expect an average higher than 68.

After a stellar debut, Lachlan Hunter (MID, 19, $102,700 & BE -39) was very unlucky to receive the green vest last weekend. He came on just before three quarter time and played a part in the Bulldogs’ 9 goal last quarter against the Dees. With Daniel Cross out of favour, Brendan McCartney looks to be adopting a strong youth policy so I think it’s fair to assume that Hunter will play most of the remaining games this year. Another vest affected two gamer is Brad McKenzie (MID, 82, $108,500 & BE -66). After a green vest in his first game, McKenzie was given a full run against the Giants playing on a wing. He’s got great skills, runs hard and makes good decisions but North’s midfield depth is up there with the best. McKenzie is competing with players like Ben Cunnington, Ben Jacobs, etc. who will work their way back to senior football at some point. On a positive note, McKenzie looks like he can score big so trading him in this week could pay nice dividends. If you had to pick between Hunter and McKenzie, I’d lean towards picking Hunter…job security has to outweigh any scoring potential.

Dawson Simpson (RUC, 96, $175,200 & BE -40) was a force in the ruck against Freo and he should hold his spot this Saturday night against the Hawks. Simpson had 6 kicks, 7 handballs, 6 marks, 3 tackles, 34 hitouts and a goal but its his strength and ferocity at the contest that is most pleasing. Geelong has a ruck conundrum at the selection table this week with Simpson, West, Blicavs and Vardy all available for selection. Personally, I think Geelong will go with Simpson, Blicavs and Vardy this weekend but after that who knows. I don’t think it is wise spending $175,200 on an injury prone ruckman with job security issues so It’s a pass from me on Simpson.

Brandon Jack (MID, 40, $89,300 & BE -11) has a heap of potential and I have no doubt that he’ll be a great player in years to come. He’s been in and out of the team to date so it would be foolish to trade him in considering the calibre of the Swans midfield. Matthew Taberner (FWD, 44, $107,300 & BE -17) will be dropped for Pav this week so don’t bother.

Don’t forget about Joe Daniher (FWD, 44, $143,200 & BE -52) who could make a return this weekend after Bellchambers’ poor showing against West Coast. I’ve spoken about him before and I rate him as a player but who knows when he’s going to be protected/rested/managed next? When in doubt, look elsewhere.

One Gamers

There were seven first gamers in Round 14 and none of them took my fancy. Matthew Arnot (MID, 56 & $108,500) is the most likely of the seven but he was a late inclusion for popular 2013 ‘junior’ Nick Vlastuin. Arnot is a solidly built, in and under type who has been biding his time in the VFL. From his 8 VFL games this year, Arnot has been named in the bests five times and averaged 12 kicks, 10 handballs, 4.5 marks, 5 tackles and 0.8 goals a game. Arnot could be a very handy back up midfielder but Richmond has a lot of midfield depth and I can’t see him breaking into the 22 on a regular basis. Let’s see if he gets another game this weekend.

Dockers’ pair Tom Sheridan (MID, 64 & $108,500) and Viv Michie (FWD, 49 & $108,500) were given a chance to shine against the Cats with Michie starting in the green vest. Sheridan played on a wing for the majority of the game and didn’t do too badly with 15 touches, 1 mark, 4 tackles and a goal. Michie came on just before half time when Duffield did a calf and was very hard at the footy. Michie left everything out on the field and finished with 49 dreamteam points in just over a half of footy which is a fantastic effort. There’s a lot of potential in Sheridan and Michie but with Barlow and Mundy set to return this week (source), Ross Lyon will likely cut both.

John Ceglar (RUC, 66 & $99,300) was picked ahead of fellow rook Sam Grimley in Round 14 after a good month in the VFL. Even though Ceglar played a reasonable game (7 kicks, 2 handballs, 2 marks, 3 tackles and 22 hitouts), Max Bailey is available for selection this week after overcoming his recent bout of knee soreness (source). If you are looking to downgrade Blicavs this week may I recommend a left field suggestion in Liam McBean (FWD/RUC & $102,700) who you can sit at R4 and interchange with Cox, Roughy etc in your forward line when need be. Please note that McBean is very unlikely to see any senior action this year!

Andrew Boston (MID, 7 & $89,300), Simon Tunbridge (DEF/FWD, 6 & $108,500) & Xavier Richards (DEF/FWD, 3 & $89,300) received minimal playing time after they all started in the green vest and played no more than a quarter of footy. Don’t be foolish and trade these kids in this week without seeing them in action for a full game.

Keep Your Eye On

Jonathan O’Rourke has played 4 consecutive games in the NEAFL and was BOG last weekend so expect him to see some AFL action soon. O’Rourke comes with a hefty price tag ($179,200) but there are limited rooks about that can rack up the footy like this kid. I eagerly await his debut!

Got a question? Ask me on Twitter @JeppaDT

47 Comments

  • great article mate. further confirmed my trade of birch>clisby (as if it needed to be though)
    keep up the good work, will surely need another downgrade or two over the next few weeks

    • Cheers mate. All the one gamers look terrible but hopefully a newbie comes along. Fingers crossed.

  • I already have clisby!I need to downgrade vlastuin, was hoping for a defender or forward (with staker to do it with.Perhaps I should roll the dice on Richards or turnbridge, that way I can swap with staker if I have holes to cover. Who would pick of the two of them?

    • NO! Dont trade in Richards or Tunbridge even with their DPP. Can you do Vlast to McKenzie or Hunter?

      • Thanks for the reply!

        But no, no I can’t.

        My other option is to lose lonegran & Fyfe for Albert/griffin and Mckenzie

        But if vlas is named he will plummet in price thanks to the 33 and I need him out next week

  • Great article. I’m definitely getting Clisby but I need to trade Boyd… Who should I get? Griffen, Barlow, Montagna, ROK? Everyone in my league has Barlow so I’d like a point of difference.

    • If you want a POD….then how about Craig Bird? I went Boyd to Bird..Bird has a BE of 28..Swans have a soft draw coming up, Bird has great JS with all the Swans injuries and he’s a FWD/MID.
      DO IT

      • Nice move!

        I would go ROK if you want a POD. He loves the second half of the season and should go bonkers the next two weeks

      • Bad advice. Bird doesnt average enough to be considered for a premo mid spot.

    • I have gone ROK over Griffen. Having a look at the draw, I know the Doggies play GWS this week, but I think they have the easier draw in a few weeks over Syd. My theory is jump on ROK now, then bring in Griffen once Boyd is back. Just my thoughts…

    • Ive had ROK from Day 1 but he has a tendency to stink it up with he doesnt have a solid tag he can lay 10+ tackles. Griff has been solid but Toby Greene with sit on him this week.

      I’d go Barlow.

      My Top 8 mid premos at the moment are Ablett, Swan, Pendels, Barlow, Stanton, Griffen Jack and Cornes

  • Hey Jeppa,

    Which one out of B.Kennedy or Thurlow should I trade out for Clisby? Thurlow not going to play so won’t cost me any cash for now. Ben Kennedy should play but am sick of him being the sub all the time. He might lose me money.
    I’m in a dilemma as to who to trade out. I’d rather have rookies playing then not, but I don’t want Kennedy to lose me any cash he has made. Do u know his BE for the week?
    Thoughts?

    • I dumped Kennedy, he was going to lose cash. BE of 78. Bought in Daniher, but am rethinking that… But I bought in Clisby last week, so don’t have that dilemma.
      Kennedy will prob lose about $10-12K… Clisby will bring in about $50-60K. Thurlow will lose nil if he’s not playing…

    • Kennedy allows you to switch mid/fwds if you stick him on the mid bench which i think will be very useful later in the season when you want to make points but have a premo out. I’d be keeping him and getting rid of Thurlow who will be out for at least 3 according to the injury list. You are only losing money on Kennedy if you plan to get rid of him in the future and I think that would only have to happen if you had one or no other issues to deal with on a given week and wanted some cash. really he means someone like Stevie J can cover fwd and mids and allow you to keep someone like JJK as F7.

    • If Kennedy isnt named then get rid of Thurlow. Pies play Gold Coast and GWS back to back in a couple of weeks and Kennedy could be recalled. Hopefully in a few weeks there is a FWD rook we can jump on e.g. Kristian Jaksch. Fingers crossed.

      • If he is to make some money over the GWS and GC games the 20 needs to drop out of his three game numbers so better if he plays right through. If he is named E on Friday night then he could lose more than he might make through a couple of games (he might still score poorly in the easy games anyway). I humbly suggest (as Jeppa is a guru) that you base it on whether u plan to keep Kennedy from here on or u have another M10 you have your eyes on.

  • Great article as always Jeppa, outstanding work!!
    With Tom Mitchell holding his own at M8 in so many teams would it be silly to bring in a premium like Pendles to that spot, pushing titchell to the bench? or would it be more beneficial to upgrade the rest of your team weaknesses and leave titchell at M8 until the last position upgrade?

    Pulled the trigger early and got Clisby in last week instead of Daniher, so will probably bring Daniher in for Neade this week (if playing) to remove the last of the portlets.

    Also do you think it’s time to pull the trigger on Kyle Martin yet with the few rookie Mids coming through like Hunter and McKenzie? Or has he still got some money to make?

    • yeah im wondering the same, went scooter to gibbs last wkend putting vlas/ goodes in the m9 spot and titch on the field. was planning to upgrade one of them to pendles/Stanton/Watson this week but im not sure either. maybe upgrade elsewhere is my thoughts.. a bit of cash wasting on the bench tho

    • Definitely upgrade elsewhere before pushing Mitchell to the bench! Pendels is a required player though…might have to bide your time.

      With the Pies under pressure to win some games I suspect they’ll turn to their more experienced heads in Krak, Clinton Young, Didak etc so you’ll prob find that Kennedy and/or Martin will be dropped

  • No mention of Laird? Does that mean trade… Surely not

    • +1

    • I think he is great bench cover; unfortunately moved him on for Ellis two weeks ago. What a great move that has proven to be!!!

      • Laird should have got a mention in Keepers but with his inconsistent scores I wouldnt start him on your field

  • nice article, no mention of hrovat? thought he would be dropped so I was really pleased with his 68 saving me from a donut last wkend.. whats his js like? or would you advise to downgrade him to someone like hunter? he is sitting at m10 atm

    • I am holding Hrovat as M10 for a while; with Boyd out, surely that improves his JS?

    • Even though Hrovat got a 68, he was terrible…he turned over too many times. wait for the teams to be named before trading him out…not a big profit though

  • And if Kennedy is named?? Trade him out?

    • depends on how you are placed with the rest of your team anth. If you can sit kennedy as M10 as a DPP it could be handy we a reserve is need. i.e Rockliff will be my F7 but he could cover mids as well if i have kennedy as a M10

  • Im hoping Clisby doesnt turn out to be yet another huge popular rookie fail, after I traded in Hunter last week :( But as D8 it’s probably not so critical.

    • Hunter will come good as long as he avoids the vest. the unpredictability of Brendan McCartney is annoying

  • Great work Jeppa.
    Will B Goodes play this week?

  • Mitchell Grigg, been tearing it up in the SANFL

  • Jeppa thanks for the article but I prefer to get my advice through AFL’s own ‘Fantasy Market Watch’. They suggest I should trade out Boyd for Ablett which was quite useful as I probably would have gone Boyd to Beams. Hadn’t even considered Ablett for the last 14 weeks until I read that article. I will then also invest in Crouch. He’s nicely priced at $277 and is sure to maintain last weeks output. I’m just surprised it didn’t have Tom Mitchell as the tip of the week.

  • I’m considering playing Tom Mitchell over Cotchin.. anyone else in the same boat?

    • Prior to Boyd’s injury, I was contemplating benching Fyfe to put Tom Mitchell on as D8. Think it’s worth consideration.

    • Titchell will play over JPK this week for me. Farken sick of that joker

  • So you say there are a lot of poor ‘one-game’ rookies, does this mean I should double downgrade this week and double upgrade next week? Or continue to do one downgrade and one upgrade?

  • What about Brodie Murdoch???