Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 12

jeppa_rd13Two weeks down, one to go. I don’t know about you but these bye rounds are taking their toll on my team, my overall ranking and my mojo.

The story of the round has to be the lack of new rookies coming through. Of the top 25 rookies drafted last year, 17 have already made their debuts and only three of these remain on the bubble. With very few rooks around it means coaches need to get creative with their trades. It’s times like these where we need to sacrifice a second reserve spot on a rookie with questionable job security in order to make a decent profit.

As usual, I’ve covered all the relevant rookie performances from last week, so have a read, take note and good luck with Round 13…Carnage Round!

Three-Or-More Gamers

KEEPERS

Two weeks rest for Sam Mayes (FWD/MID, 99, $264,200 & BE 30) did him the world of good and he was back to his ball winning best against the Dockers last weekend. His DPP eligibility and scoring potential make him the ultimate reserve in the second half of the season, so if you listened to me after he copped the green vest in Round 8, well done.

The recent poor form of Pearce Hanley, Grant Birchall, Shaun Burgoyne etc increases the ‘street cred’ of Brett Goodes (DEF/MID, 81, $333,900 & BE 53) and Nick Vlastuin (DEF/MID, 81, $372,400 & BE 74). Both have cemented themselves in the senior sides, they’re dual position players and they score consistently. Plan to keep these two as either a D7/M9…it will go a long way.

Jackson Macrae (MID, 85, $296,100 & BE 39) and Jake Stringer (FWD, 96, $190,600 & BE 2) were both named in the Bulldogs bests on the weekend. Macrae continues to run hard and win the footy and Stringer played the best game of his short career after taking a massive 12 marks and kicking 2 goals against the Pies. There are a couple of decent price rises in these two yet so if you’ve got either of them then hold for the short term.

New kids on the block in Tom Nicholls (R13 Bye, RUC, 77, $189,400 & BE -65) and Kyle Martin (R13 Bye, MID, 92, $186,000 & BE -53) are improving on the field at an exponential rate. Nicholls is holding firm as the solo ruckman for the Gold Coast and his tackling around the packs is really impressive. Martin continues to win the footy, run hard to space and kick goals. If you missed out on either of these two, don’t rule out trading them in for Round 14!

Cameron O’Shea (DEF, 111, $333,200 & BE 6), Justin Clarke (DEF, 56, $210,500 & BE 28), Jaryd Cachia (R13 Bye, MID, 82, $298,500 & BE 43), Josh Thomas (R13 Bye, MID, 77, $347,500 & BE 41), Ben Kennedy (R13 Bye, FWD/MID, 56, $237,700 & BE 17) and Tim Sumner (R13 Bye, FWD, 59, $134,400 & BE -15) are the latest group of rooks to be earning coaches great money so if you’ve got them, sleep easy.

DON’T PANIC

Sure, Brent Staker (DEF/FWD, 35, $194,200 & BE 38) didn’t score well in Round 12 but he is still very important to the Brisbane Lions. He played as a key defender and only scored 35 but with Daniel Merrett returning from suspension this week, expect Staker to go back to his free running half forward/wing role and 65 average.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE            

If I haven’t categorised a player from Round 12 under ‘Keepers’ or ‘Don’t Panic’ then trade them out as soon as you can.

Special mention to Collingwood pair Brent Macaffer (R13 Bye, FWD, 57, $369,300 & BE 84) and Sam Dwyer (R13 Bye, FWD/MID, 44, $319,800 & BE 101) who have served us well but their high breakevens are a clear indicator to trade them out this round or next.

Whether it’s this week or over the next couple of rounds, ultimately it makes no sense to keep Jaeger O’Meara (R13 Bye, MID, 106, $408,100 & BE 74) in the long term. As good as he’s been on the field, O’Meara’s dreamteam average of 89 is well below popular R13 bye midfielders in Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Watson, etc. He won’t have a top eight dreamteam midfield average in the second half of the season so why keep him? O’Meara has been the most profitable rookie thus far and the time has come to either cash in or upgrade.

Two Gamers

As far as rookies on the bubble go, Joe Daniher (R13 Bye, FWD, 84, $143,200 & BE -50) is the only decent option. Daniher showed a heap of improvement in his second game and all the hype regarding his potential was seen first hand on Saturday night. He had 8 kicks, 9 handballs, 8 marks, 1 tackle and 3 goals in his game against the Suns and was on a whopping 78 dreamteam points at half time. On a sour note, Daniher was hardly sighted in the second half but for a young key forward adjusting to the tempo of AFL, it’s not a deal breaker. His quarter by quarter scores were 42, 36, -3 and 9.

With his huge reach and fantastic leap, Daniher’s greatest asset is his marking. He is also very mobile for a big bloke and can pinch hit in the ruck when required. His versatility suggests that he is more valuable than teammate Scott Gumbleton however the conundrum of which ruck/forward pair the Bombers coaching staff go with each week will be interesting. Bellchambers performed very well in the VFL last weekend and could be used to help limit the influence of Nic Nat and Cox in Round 14 when the Bombers face West Coast. If Daniher is given an opportunity in Round 14 then he should line up in the following three rounds against Port, the Bulldogs and GWS. However after Round 17, I suspect the Bombers will elect to go with the harder bodies of Bellchambers and Ryder in the lead up to their finals campaign. Wait to see if Daniher plays in Round 14 (we’ll know before partial lockout) before trading him in!

Michael Talia (DEF, 106, $218,400 & BE -27) does not fall under the rookie category but desperate times call for desperate measures. Talia is a developing key defender for the Bulldogs who replaced the injured Tom Young in Round 10 after some very good form for Williamstown in the VFL. He was opposed to the Q-Stick last weekend and finished with 15 kicks, 15 handballs, 9 marks and 1 tackle. With so few downgrade options this week, Talia’s breakeven of -27 is very attractive, so much so that I am very likely to trade him in as my short term D8 this week.

For those that thought Cameron Hitchcock (FWD, 28, $132,600 & BE -2) was a half decent option then consider yourself lucky that he was injured on the weekend. Stay at home small forwards do not score well and Hitchcock’s SANFL form has been very up and down. With so few rookies coming through, the last thing we need is more dead weight so I beg you to consider other options when he comes back from injury. For the second week in a row, Adam Oxley (R13 Bye, DEF/FWD, 17, $89,300 & BE 19) was a late inclusion for the Pies and was again given the green vest. Oxley tries hard but he won’t feature in the Collingwood seniors for much longer so stay away.

I don’t expect Nathan Hrovat (MID, $107,200 & BE -64) to be named this weekend so don’t get your hopes up. The Bulldogs put in a spirited performance against the Pies last Sunday and no one of Hrovat’s ilk performed badly. The Dogs obviously wont make the finals this season so be patient because at some point they will play a lot of their youngsters like Hrovat to fast track development. Tom Lee (FWD, $108,500 & BE -4) is not a shoe-in to replace Beau Wilkes (inj.) at full forward for the Saints this weekend. In his last two VFL games, Lee has been goalless and averaged only 6 possessions, 2.5 marks and 2 tackles. If Lee is getting these numbers in the VFL, he’ll do a lot worse in the big league.

One Gamers

David Astbury (DEF, 21 & $144,300) was the only rookie priced player to get a run in Round 12. He was a late inclusion for Jake Bachelor and played as a ‘third’ tall in defence. Unfortunately, he struggled to win possession and generate run off the half back line. Astbury is a fringe player at Richmond and thus not a sensible dreamteam option.

Bye Round ‘Sleepers’

I’ve sung his praises before but just incase you live under a rock, Tom Mitchell’s (MID, $108,500 & BE -171) is on the bubble and has to be in everyone’s dreamteam before Friday’s lockout. Mitchell is projected to score 121 and increase in value by $121,200 at the end of Round 13, which will be a record if he can pull it off.

Nathan Vardy (RUC, $209,200 & BE 35) and Jack Fitzpatrick (RUC, $146,800 & BE -24) are two expensive ruckmen on the bubble that are sound downgrade options but almost all of us have already cashed in with Tom Nicholls.

Prior to lockout this Friday night, we will know whether or not Blayne Wilson (DEF & $108,500) gets a go against the Hawks. Wilson made an impressive debut in Round 11 and would be very stiff to get dropped on the back of that performance however, with fellow defenders Waters, Glass and Schofield all likely inclusions this week (source), Wilson may be squeezed out.

Keep an eye on Brandon Jack (MID & $89,300) who if named, will play his second game this weekend and could be a handy M10 at a basement bargain price but he needs to avoid the green vest.

Got a question? Ask me on Twitter @JeppaDT

78 Comments

  • Was just about to tweet and see when this article was coming out! :)
    Another fantastic read!
    I have to get rid of JoM this week, but it needs to be a downgrade (to bring in Swan and Gibbs next week) and I already have mitchell, but with it being likely Hrovat will be dropped I am very stuck on who to bring in at a rookie price.. What are your reccomendations, also need a playing rook as I am down on numbers this week.
    Cheers

    • KMart if you don’t need someone to play this week, or B-Jack if he’s named are two options…

      • Yeah, you do need someone… so Jack I reckon. Couch for Melb if he’s named?

    • How bout ‘downgrading’ JOM to Birchall and moving Vlastuin or Goodes to midfield? If you need a rook for cash, you’ll need to wait and see on the teams for thursday.

  • What are your thoughts on Trent Mckenzie from the GC
    Any thoughts on crouch from the crows and should I Danger
    Was thinking O’Meara to Barlow with a downgrade of Crouch to Mitchell
    And what is going on with my forward line buddy JJK SJ all say there not playing WTF can anyone help with this thanks heaps

  • Good article, the lack of rooks coming through is a bit disappointing.

    I disagree with your view of Hrovat though. I’m a Dogs supporter and we were woeful for the large majority of the game against Collingwood, in particular the first half where our disposal efficiency was atrocious. Un-contested and un-pressured junk time stats and goals make the game look slightly more competitive, whereas in reality it was over by half time.

    Hrovat has very good foot skills and generally uses the ball pretty well, something we desperately need in the team. I hope he starts, but I could see him as a sub this week.

    • I hope he gets a game too mate. If he’s named then im likely to trade him in

  • Great article Jeppa. So who is a good downgrade target this week? Should I get Daniher a week early?

    • It depends on how many players you have playing this week.

    • I said above to wait till R14 before trading in Daniher cause he could be dropped. Hrovat, Kyle Martin and Michael Talia should all be on your radar this week

      • daniher won’t be dropped, you obviously missed bomber thompson on AFL 360. big raps on the kid and will play in the short term.

  • Great article! Been hanging out all week for it.

    Knowing JOM has a very gettable BE I’m so tempted to keep him, especially with a week off he could be even better come the 2nd half of the year

    • very probable mate but like many, I have 4 premo mids with R13 bye and I cant afford to hold him for too much longer.

      • My opponent only has 14 players this week. Would you keep JOM in this case ? Was going to sell Christensen for Mitchell.

  • Great stuff, Jep! Will be relying on a stack of rooks this week, especially now that Bartel is getting a visit from the general.

  • Great read Jeppa.
    What Do you think of Sumner from GCS?

    As a POD fwd rookie Summer from GCS didn’t look too shabby. his 59 wasn’t the worst score in the world. 134k still cheap. His 1st 3 games, two were against tough opponents, and he could be a slow burner rookie, as he seems to be improving as he gets game time. His js seems ok too.

    • Sumner was named in the bests for Gold Coast on the weekend but from a dreamteam point of view, he”s not going to score well. I’d look at other options.

  • I have to trade out two players having the bye this week in order to field 18 and my trade out options are two of Watson, O’Meara and Harbrow.

    If I trade:

    Watson & O’Meara—> Ellis & Ibbotson, I will have cash next week to go:

    Macaffer & Rowe—> Heppell & Daniher.

    I am leaning toward this option because so far, Watson has had no ROI, he has dropped 20k.

    It would also allow me to have premiums in all positions, with Mitchell at M8, Vlastuin & Mayes at M9 & M10 respectively as well as Goodes at D7.

    Harbrow has a b/e of 50 and has been playing pretty well recently, therefore I have looked to trade Watson out ahead of him. It also leaves Gibbs and Goddard in the midfield, giving me an option to switch them back once Harbrow has topped out and when any other defenders, Hanley I am looking at you, looks like needing to be traded out. Losing Watson, but gaining Heppell, who is having a way better season this year at Essendon anyway. Thoughts DT’ers?

    • As Above:

      It would also allow me to have premiums in all positions, with Mitchell at M8, Vlastuin & Mayes at M9 & M10 respectively as well as Goodes at D7.

    • Good trades

      • thanks, i think i might even trade watson back in for his encounter with the power even….once the best backmen really become apparant

    • Steven, these are completly different trades to what you are looking at yesterday, is it worth giving comment or will you have a new stragegy tomorrow?

      I hope you don’t have Bartell and relying on him for a full 18 this weekend

      • yeah too indecisive, it always take me the whole week to work out my trades. your may well be right, i could have a whole new scenario tomorrow and even when trades are locked i am rarely happy with them. i have done some good trades this season and some bad ones…am ranked 3,000 now and have been steadily climbing since i opened the season in 20,000 place or therabouts.

        • 3,000?? really??? bet your glad people are willing to help you on this site, you’d be 30,000+ otherwise

          • yes really. sure you guys are very helpful. wish i had gotten onto this site last year, this year has been much better than my inaugural season

    • Bad trades, very bad trades. Why ditch watson if you will get him back again? Just cop the donut and set your team up for next week

      • i am going to have to cop a donut either way if bartel doesn’t play. he should play, geelong would be mad not to play him, he has an excellent record up there against brisbane.

  • Great read Jeppa.
    What are your thoughts on Dean Kent? Hasnt been great to date, but with a change of coach and still fairly cheap at 154k, worth a punt as M8?

    • Most teams wouldn’t risk him at M10, let alone M8!

    • Nah. He’s hard at it and can win the footy but he struggles with his kicking efficiency. You may find Neil Craig will use him as a tagger cause he’s such a great tackler…a lot better than Mackenzie i reckon

  • Should i downgrade macaffer to daniher or blicavs to vardy or fitzpatrick?

    • How many do you have playing this week?

    • Caff to Daniher if you hav to, but surely there is something else you have to fix up?

      • I’ll tell you my team so you know who i have and don’t have.

        DEF: Goodes,Vlastuin,Thurlow,Staker (Goddard,Hibberd,Heppell,J.Frost)

        MID: Barlow,Swallow,Deledio,Cotchin,T.Mitchell,Mayes,Hrovat (Ablett,Pendlebury,Watson)

        RUC: Goldstein,Blicavs (Kreuzer,Currie)

        FWD: Stokes,Bartel,Martin,Rockliff,Naitnaui,Franklin (B.Kennedy,Daniher)

        Thats with those trades. With out the trades i have 289k and with them it leaves me with 625k.

        This was my plan, Next weeks trades:
        Frost-Gibbs
        Thurlow-Hanley or Cotchin/Deledio/Swallow-Swan and do either one of the other next week.

        • Good team actually! Maybe Staker to Ellis or Mayes to Jack if you wanted to upgrade?

          • i would prefer to bring in two premo’s next week and another 1 a week later.

  • Who would be the best to bring in for O’Meara this week – Joel Selwood or Michael Barlow? Barlow has been on fire lately, but is more than $100K more expensive than Joel.

  • s.selwood or deledio
    please comment which 1 you you trade in

  • Great article Jeppa! But don’t you think Tom Lee is a chance for the saints with both Milne & Maister out? Milera will replace Milne after his 5 goal performance in the VFL. But then who comes in for Maister?

    • Yes he is a chance to play but with bugger all stats in the VFL in recent weeks he’s a waste of space in a dt sense

  • great article jeppa!
    I almost thought you werent going to mention TOM MITCHELL until the very end :)

    who has the lower b/e thurlow or talia??? not all of us have assistant coach

  • Another great article Jeppa!!! I heard someone suggest a few weeks back that with the unlimited trade situation this year the good teams maybe in a position to hold onto the top cash cows… I’m starting to think this is the way to go, for example how handy will O’meara be in the finals when the guns get rested? Or even a Macaffer in the forward line when the cats rest JS in preperation for the finals! Or even Terlich in the backs! I’m starting to think about holding these guys and looking at off loading the second tier cash cows i.e. Laird, Neade, Thurlow etc… Because come finals every trade is valuable…. Hmm, anyway food for thought ;)

    • Totally agree. If you can keep Omeara as midfield back up then do so. I like Buddy as a forward backup instead of macaffer…it will only cost you another $25K :)

      • Why can’t Tom Mitchell be your M9 backup for the rest of the year. You can trade O’meara to Mitchell, bank the 300K. As good as O’meara has been he has got to go. If you already have mithcell then upgrade O’meara.

  • Great read jeppa. I unfortunately had to bring in Hitchcock last week to avoid having a zero and cause he has already had his bye. Would you consider Hitchcock being in the best 22 for the rest of the season if fit and what would his average be?

    • I cant see Neade and Hitchcock regularly running around in Ports team. Just my opinion.

      I reckon Hitchcock will average 60 but there will be a couple of green vests along the way

  • great read jeppa. slim pickings for rookies.
    what are peoples thoughts on jimmy toumpass?
    is only 132k now and has already had his bye and has a new coach, so could have a new position.

  • Great article as alwasy Tbetta.
    Who should i keep out of Danger or Watson!
    plz help

  • I can’t believe ONLY 34.6% of the comp have brought in T Mitchell

    If if there is a flurry of trades after teams, maybe only he’ll have around 40% ownership – there must be a lot of ghostships out there.

    • a lot of DT coaches won’t look at their teams until after Thursday night selections, so i would expect a spike in teams trading in Tom Mitchell tonight and friday

      • +1 .. I usually don’t make my trades until Thurs night or Friday.. even with the definite trade of Whitfield to T.Mitchell this week.

        • I’d be curious to see if ownership moves from 34.6% to above 40% of not by lockout

          • I’m predicting more than that. Especially people are looking to downgrade in the mids this round and TMitchell is the best option. But it’ll be interesting to work out the number of ghostships out there

  • Anyone got any thoughts on Ellis v Ibbotson – i had my self sold on Ellis but not so sure anymore.

    • I was asking the same question to myself, i have chosen Ellis simply because ibbotson is no good away from home

  • As stated in previous articles, it is the week to rid yourself of Sam Jacobs. As I have Cox, Blicavs and Nicholls in the R position, and with NicNat in the Fwds, i am looking at cashing in Jacobs. Better late than never I say.

    Is Jack Fitzpatrick the man to bring in? What other option do you suggest

  • i ate a big red candle

  • i like carpet

  • i like traffic lights

  • Hahaha – so much speculation in this thread!

    Hrovat – named
    Wilson – named
    Bartel – named

    I know that doesn’t mean they will all definitely play, but would you really determine trades around the assumption that they won’t, when I reckon most of us have other issues to deal with?

    Personally I’m hoping that worst case scenario Jimmy gets rested and Thurlow gets a run so at least I get some points. Between him, Webster and Wilson I really need my Bomber boys back!

    Bring on full teams next week!!!