Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 11

jeppa_rd12Who needs premos when you’ve got rookies that command the football and take the spotlight? That was the story of Round 11 after the amazing efforts of Tommy ‘Gun’ Mitchell and Tommy ‘Gun’ Nicholls. You cant wipe the smile off those coaches faces who made the double downgrade but if you missed the boat, don’t worry because Mitchell and Nicholls haven’t had their first hefty price increase. Additionally, there are many other quality rooks that are worthy picks, so read carefully because Round 11 was all about the ‘juniors’…

Three-Or-More Gamers

KEEPERS

Timing is everything and the hot form of Brent Macaffer (R13 Bye, FWD, 102, $357,300 & BE 22) has probably been taken for granted. After he was dropped in Round 3, Macaffer has been used as a ‘Mr Fix It’ playing cameos in defence and up forward but it’s his role as a tagger that has dreamteam coaches most excited. Macaffer has averaged 96 in his last three games and if his form continues, he’ll likely top out at $400,000. Hold!

Keep Jaeger O’Meara (R13 Bye, MID, 89, $403,300 & BE 87) for just one more week. He looks to have peaked in price and has a breakeven of 87 which he should achieve this weekend. Given that O’Meara’s got the Round 13 bye, you want to keep the likes of Swan, Ablett, Pendles etc before Jaeger. God willing, I will be ‘downgrading’ O’Meara to Birchall in Round 13 and moving Goodes to my midfield bench.

Dean Terlich (R12 Bye, DEF, 73, $344,600 & BE 70) is a rock for Melbourne and a rock for dreamteam coaches. I am currently looking at keeping Terlich as my seventh defender. He’s one of the Demons better defenders so job security is not an issue and he’s also a consistent scorer. In his last five games he’s had scores of 74, 120, 67, 78 and 73. I suspect Terlich will benefit greatly from the break this week and will continue his 70+ dreamteam scores in the second half of the year.

Rookies that continue to surprise me include Jaryd Cachia (R13 Bye, MID, 71, $282,700 & BE 39), Rory Laird (R13 Bye, DEF, 70, $290,700 & BE 15), Josh Thomas (R13 Bye, MID, 111, $315,300 & BE -6) and Ben Kennedy (R13 Bye, FWD/MID, 83, $197,800 & BE -43). All four have taken their opportunities at the top level and they don’t look like slowing down anytime soon. Even though Kennedy has featured well in the last two rounds, he is still a huge vest risk.

If Brad Crouch (R13 Bye, MID, 72, $218,800 & BE -20) and Jackson Thurlow (R12 Bye, DEF, 81, $179,900 & BE 5) can hold their spots, they’ll be valuable assets and very profitable for the coaches that still own them. Crouch did pretty well to reach 72 last weekend considering the Swans dominance and Thurlow finished strong against the Giants to score a handy 81. These two are keepers for now.

DON’T PANIC

Less popular rooks that are performing well and still have decent breakevens include Mitch Morton (R12 Bye, FWD, 72, $222,000 & BE 24), Dane Rampe (R12 Bye, MID, 72, $231,700 & BE 12) and Dean Kent (R12 Bye, MID, 42, $154,700 & BE -15). All three have the bye this weekend but should be named for Round 13.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE            

As per usual, if I haven’t categorised a player from Round 11 under ‘Keepers’ or ‘Don’t Panic’ then trade them out as soon as you can.

Just a quick comment on Sam Dwyer (R13 Bye, FWD/MID, $318,400 & BE 35). After apparently being right to go last weekend, Dwyer is listed as a test for Round 12. I’m guessing that he’ll be wrapped in cotton wool again especially since the Pies have the Round 13 bye. If you are like me and you still own him then it’s time to part ways (unless he’s named) with one the best rookies of 2013.

Two Gamers

Holy hat! I knew Tom Mitchell (R12 Bye, MID, 144, $108,500 & BE -173) was a player but I didn’t know he was going to be this great. Mitchell finished with one of the highest ever scores by a rookie in DT history on Saturday afternoon (Barlow had 146 against the Pies). He had 18 kicks, 13 handballs, 5 marks, a massive 10 tackles and a goal…stats most midfielders can only dream of. The Round 11 Rising Star nominee will continue to go from strength to strength. If you missed the boat then lock in a trade to get him in for Round 13…it’s a no brainer.

Tom Mitchell’s dominance somewhat under shadowed the performance of Tom Nicholls (R13 Bye, RUC, 113, $108,500 & BE -120). It’s amazing to think that if Zac Smith wasn’t injured, Nicholls probably wouldn’t have gotten a run this year. His notable stats on the weekend were his 33 hitouts and 10 tackles however, it was wet which means more hitouts from ball ups and throw ins and more tackles around the packs. Nicholls doesn’t look phased by the hardened bodies that surround him on the footy field and in my opinion, he had a bigger impact on the game than his opponent Todd Goldstein. I can guarantee that Nicholls will play every game from here on in assuming he stays injury free. He’s on the bubble and must be traded in this week, so make it happen.

After a quiet start, Kyle Martin (R13 Bye, MID, 83, $103,300 & BE -109) took full advantage of his team’s dominance in the last three quarters and finished with 3 goals and 83 dreamteam points. He’s a natural forward with a beautiful set shot at goal. Martin also reads the play really well, is a great tackler and can run through the midfield when Swanny or Pendles need a rest. With Krakouer on the outer, Martin moves up the pecking order, as one of Collingwood’s preferred small forwards so his job security in the short term is satisfactory. The Pies face the Bulldogs, Power, Blues, Crows, Gold Coast and Giants in their next six games, so Martin should continue to average 75+ but don’t be surprised if he cops a green vest along the way.

The ‘selection’ headache many dreamteam coaches face this week is the choice between Martin and Hrovat. Both are similar in stature (178cm v 175cm) but both have different strengths and weaknesses. Martin is a better overhead mark and has a more superior midfield to get him the ball. Hrovat is a better ball winner and tackler than Martin and has better job security amongst a young bulldogs line up. All in all, I am very confident that Martin will average more than Hrovat this year. If you’re like me and you’re bringing in one of these kids as a 10th midfielder then it doesn’t really matter who you select so why not take a little risk and pick the rookie with the higher ceiling? I’m going with Martin.

With Nicholls doing so well, don’t bother with expensive ruckmen Nathan Vardy (R12 Bye, RUC, 32, $209,200 & BE 31) and Jack Fitzpatrick (R12 Bye, RUC, 62, $146,800 & BE -27). Same goes for Will Hams (R13 Bye, DEF/MID, 10, $102,700 & BE 46) versus Kyle Martin or Nathan Hrovat.

If you are really desperate for a forward this weekend then Tim Sumner (R13 Bye, FWD, 44, $102,700 & BE -19) is your only half decent option. Sumner is quick, powerfully built and moves with conviction. He won’t win a lot of the footy but he loves the one percenters and tackling. In all honesty, stay away from Sumner and instead look to upgrade your forward to a premo.

One Gamers

Joe Daniher (R13 Bye, FWD, 60 & $143,200) made his long awaited debut against the Blues on Friday night in front of 84,000+ fans. If Hird and the Bombers coaching staff backed Daniher in for such a big game, they obviously rate him but unfortunately he didn’t have the dream debut that we all hoped for. Daniher proved that he can take a grab up forward but missed two set shots in the last quarter that almost cost the Bombers the game. He also had little influence in the ruck. Nerves may have got the better of him in his first game so let’s wait for him to suit up again before deciding to trade him in.

The Eagles unearthed running defender Blayne Wilson (R12 Bye, DEF, 84 & $108,500) on the weekend and wow did he impress. Other than Hurn, the West Coast back six struggle to hit targets coming out of defence so it was pleasing to see Wilson continually spot up teammates with his long, penetrating kick. A wrist injury in the third quarter seemed to slow Wilson down but he still managed to finish with 12 kicks, 9 handballs and 10 marks. Many suggest that Wilson will struggle to hold his spot with Waters, Glass and Schofield all due back after their Round 12 bye but I’m going to make a bold prediction and suggest a role change for Waters. The Eagles lack toughness in their forward line so Waters could be given a half forward role, which would leave Wilson in defence. It’s a left field suggestion but probable none the less. Let’s wait and see whose named in Round 13 before jumping on the Wilson bandwagon. Gerald Ugle (R13 Bye, DEF, 47 & $137,000) also showed a bit in his first game for 2013 but he failed to set the DT world alight so its a no for now.

Adam Oxley (R13 Bye, DEF/FWD, 23 & $89,300) and Brandon Jack (R12 Bye, MID, 29 & $89,300) were debutants that both received the green vest on the weekend. Oxley was a late inclusion for Jamie Elliot and showed some good skill but is far from Collingwood’s best 22. As for Jack, well if you consider where his brother has come from he could be anything.

Bye Round ‘Sleepers’

Don’t forget that both Nathan Hrovat (MID, $107,200 & BE -66) and Sam Grimley (RUC, $108,500 & BE -76) are rookies on the bubble but go with Nicholls ahead of Grimley. Daniel Gorringe (R13 Bye, RUC, $129,800 & BE -35) could also make a return to the seniors if Charlie Dixon doesn’t get up.

Brett Goodes (DEF/MID, $320,600 & BE 43), Nick Vlastuin (DEF/MID, $370,700 & BE 70) and Jackson Macrae (MID, $279,400 & BE 40) should all feature prominently in Round 12 so back them in for decent scores. On the contrary, I’d be a bit nervous relying on the scores of Brent Staker (DEF/FWD, $175,200 & BE -14), Justin Clarke (DEF, $205,700 & BE 41), Marco Paparone (FWD/MID, $162,300 & BE 9) and Sam Docherty (DEF, $151,800 & BE -6).

Got a question? Ask me on Twitter @JeppaDT

102 Comments

  • Jeppa, what’s the word with Sam Dwyer? I expected him to play last week. If he isn’t named this week, i’ll have to re-jig my trading strategy, and wait to trade out Evans after his Bye

    • right – under ‘Trade, Trade, Trade”

      I just wish we had a more definitive update on him two weeks ago – was banking on him playing round 12 by holding him then.

      • Same mate. If he’s not named this week then im offloading him.

        • Yuck! – I’m in a fix now, as I can only trade out one of Kerridge or Dwyer (both in my FWD line, and I can only swing one, not both trade spots into the MIDs via DPP magic)

          Kerridge has done his dash for me, faces a massive BE, and certainly will struggle at the MCG (his last MCG score was 30)..but be plays round 12 and not round 13. If I play him, i’ll lose a heap of cash certainly. I face strong round 12 opponents, who’ll probably field as many players as I do with kerridge removed.

          Dwyer might not play round 12, and if I hold him, he becomes a tri-bye player for me. Luckily my round 13 opponents are crap..

          what to do.

          • Teams tomorrow, but I’ve ditched Kerridge already (holding Dwyer who’ll become Titchell) and thanks to Staker have upgraded him to Birchall. Can you do something like that and improve your team?

          • Get rid of Kerridge first (to maximize profits) then Dwyer second.

        • cheers guys, sticking to that, as there is a chance that Dwyer might play, and no way I can offload both of them, no matter how I want it.

          • Unfortunately, Simon , I can’t as I don’t have Staker, and I need a premo Mid. My Defense is looking pretty solid, such that I can have hartlett play as an emergency if I need

  • Love ya work, Jeppa.
    I’m bringing in Hrovat over Martin, simply because Martin has the R13 bye, and I’ll need all the on-field players I can get for that round!
    I don’t think Daniher will be a great DT performer, but still, I’ll probably bring him in for his 3rd game as a downgrade for 1 of my bench FWDs, possibly even Macaffer? Although, if Macaffer keeps performing like he has, he’ll be hard to drop!

    • Cheers mate. Wait and see on Daniher as I suspect he will play intermittently in the second half of the season.

      • Good call, though the kid can take a mark! I wouldn’t be surprised if he scores like Patton, but if he clunks a few more inside 50 and improves his kicking he could become a mainstay.

  • Good stuff mate. A lack of forward downgrades at the moment, and in defence our rookies are doing so well its almost worth holding them instead of trading to the likes of Birchall/Hanley/Hartlett

    – quick note that Thurlow is a round 12 bye not round 13

    • Um, Jeppa said Thurlow’s a Rd 12 Bye. Great article Jeppa – as per usual.

    • I have that issue too with Vlastuin, Goodes, Terlich and Ellis (was almost rookie price) doing wonders back there so its hard to part with of them

    • Cheers for picking that up mate, Ive changed it accordingly.

      Eventually I think all rooks will need to be upgraded except for maybe Vlastuin. That kid is a jet.

      • also, gorringe is priced at $129,800 not $108,500. not that anyone should really care!

      • Is it possible for Ellis to play this week as im hoping to trade him out after r13 fro a premo

        • Its always possible, but how about you wait until thursday night like the rest of us to see if he is named or not.

        • If Ellis gets full games, he’s better than most so-called “premo” defenders

  • Great article as always Jeppa.

    Any ideas if the clubs will promote anyone of interest for their freebie rookie upgrade after Round 13?

    • not yet. It all depends on performances as clubs always wait till the eleventh hour to make those decisions. ill keep you all posted

  • I have got Tom Mitchell already and will get Nicholls this week. Do I need one more rookie, ie hrovat as well, or is it better to get Ellis. Is Ellis a better trade?

  • I’m thinking of trading out O’Meara this week to help set up for the Rd 13 bye carnage.
    Current Midfield of Ablett, Swan, Cornes, Watson, Danger, Barlow, O’Meara, Rockliff (Hutchins, Martin). Will have 6 mids out next week if I don’t get rid one more of my Rd 13 bye players this week.
    Was thinking O’Meara>Mitchell, then bring Martin off the bench.

    • wouldn’t you be better off getting rid of hutchins rather than o’meara?

      • we’re talking jack hutchins right? not mark hutchinGs?

        • Sorry boomstick, i meant HutchinGs from WCE. His BE is -64 while O’Meara’s is 87. I think that O’Meara has maxed out, and the downgrade gives me $391,200 to play around with later in the season.
          Plus the downgrade to Mitchell allows me that extra scoring player in the Rd 13 mids.

          • O’Meara is close to a lock! pumps out 90’s every week! not sure Hutchings will play most weeks. If Hutchings is guaranteed games then great trade but not sure he is? Tough call

  • Good work Jeppa.
    Hrovat comes in this week and Mitchell next week, maybe Daniher the week after. Now all we need is a decent def rookie downgrade

    • hopefully blaine wilson will be just that.

      • Nice Avatar ;)

        I kind of disagree with Jeppa a little bit there. Wooshas not a huge fan of playing the kids. I read an eagles article saying that not even Blayne himself expects to be playing next week against the hawks.

        Unfortunately with him its a case of last in, first out. Our backline is pretty well set.

        • haha, cheers. i have noticed yours a few times too. nice work.

          yeah, you talk a whole pile of sense there. still, i thought wilson was impressive last week and would like to see more of him.

  • was gonna downgrade to hrovat this week but tempted to upgrade to barlow. with all the rookies running out though i’m not sure about it. a big consideration for me along with finding rookies at the right time is jumping on premos at their lowest price. titch will obviously be trade #1 next week, but i may take a gamble and bring in barlow this week assuming he’ll rise in price more than hrovat. and if there are no other good options next week for trade #2, jump on hrovat one week late.

    does this seem like a sound gamble to anyone? or am i just talking crazy?

    • Sounds sound.
      Surely Barlow will hit 110+, and Hrovat might struggle to get more 60 against Collingwood.

      Wonder who Caff will tag – surely any of Boyd, Griffen, or even B Goodes

      • thanks for the input :)
        yeah, might skip hrovat then. if i went that trade instead of barlow i had nearly $1M sitting in the bank. feels like it’s sitting there wasting away and i’ll be cashing in on o’meara to titch next week anyway. just don’t like to let a good rookie option go begging when they’re starting to dry up.

        i would think caff would go to griffen, especially after his effort last week.

    • I’m skip on Hrovat – i was gonna go him this week, but i’m now jumping on Nicholls, even though Nicholls makes my overall team structure worse than going to Hrovat.

  • I like this article. Why didn’t you talk about Terlich? He’s a rd 12 bye but good player so not easy to get rid of even round 12 bye. I will keep him and need him next round when the big boys are out. FMDT.

    • Did you read the article? There was a whole paragraph about him with his name in bold at the beginning.

  • Great article Jeppa. Was very happy with Nicholls on the weekend and will probably go Hrovat this week and Mitchell next week.
    I know it’s unrelated but is anyone hearing that Berger might get up? Might change my whole bye plans if he does.

  • Another great read Jeppa.
    Had been set on Naismith (R4) > Nicholls this week. Seemed a sound choice for great ruck cover for just 20k. Doubt has crept in though… it works well this round, but could it be a wasted trade relegating Blicavs to R4? (Current setup is Cox, Roughie, Blicavs, Naismith).
    Interested to know your thoughts on Blicavs > Nicholls trade?

    • Yes for blicavs > nicholls ud have only 1 out per week so at least 2 rucks will play each week and u will make 164k from it, then nicholls can be r3 for rest of the year after this week pending injury/form/rests, i see it as an excellent short-mid term option then once ur team has 22 premos in it then maybe a couple of luxury bench upgrades coming into finals to save ya from a poor emergency score

      • i have both cox and nic nat up fwd atm with kreuzer and nicholls in rucks so will need to trade out 1 of daw or blicavs to dpp cox/nicnat back into rucks in rnd 13/14 and get in a premo fwd in the vacant fwd slot

        • Cheers Timothy. My concern with trading Blicavs was his low BE and ability to generate some more cash, whereas Naismith won’t make a dollar! Nicholls has them both covered really and your right, liking that 164k instant return on Blicavs!
          Nice use of the DPP magic with your ruck setup.

    • Yep, get rid of Blicavs for Nicholls. Extra cash and you dont really need an R4.

    • Blicavs still has a great breakeven so id keep him for now. I expect him to return in R13

  • CONFUSED!!!! Did the double downgrade last week which I was happy with and brought in Martin and Titch, but not sure whether to do it again and bring in Nicholls and Hrovat or just do Nicholls and upgrade Evans to Barlow. Any one with any ideas would be appreciated!

    • u have both gun mid rooks outve the 3 available atm id be hitting the evans to barlow button tbh, make sure u have enough midfield cover for next week though

      • Will have 5 in my midfield for rnd13 after I trade JOM to Cotch and will have 18 after I trade Scotland to Hanley and the selection gods are with me and hopefully all of us

        • also depends on your bank situation. With limited rooks to debut from here on in, it’d be handy to have a war chest for premo upgrades post byes.

        • Any other Rd 13 rooks? How many on field this week? If you have another Rd 13 rook and 19 with Evans in this week, then keep Evans and offload one of your Rd 13 rooks to Barlow this week to maximise your chances of getting 18 on field next week (and with luck 19 for vest/injury/shit score).

    • Not many will be running three rookies in the mids for the rest of the year even with Tit h showing he can score. Time to bring in guns is now.

  • Great read Jeppa!! Do you think it would be better to pick up either Hrovat or Martin this week for Dwyer? or is it better to upgrade McEvoy to Minson? First trade was Daw to Nicholls so I have a playing ruckman this week, but will still have a playing 18 regardless of getting in Minson or Martin

    • its hard for me to give a definitive answer without looking at your whole team. In terms of strategy, Id be picking up Martin or Hrovat at this stage because im predicting that good quality rooks will be few and far between in the second half of the season.

  • JOM M9
    Hrovat M10

    or

    Hrovat M9
    Kommer M10.

    Second one is better for my bank balance..first one provides much better cover

    • Second one. M10 won’t get a run and for me will probably end up an 89K rook

  • do i bring in dustin martin or tom rockliff?

    • i just hope Rocky plays, Hrovat and Nicholls for me this week as I double upgraded last week.

    • Far better options through the mid or ruck, but if you need the forward upgrade they’ve both been very similar this year, so id go dusty purely on B/E.

      • Yeah, wishing I could get Barlow rather than Martin (already got Rocky), but only way to swing that is worse overall…

        Don’t think BE is particularly relevant unless you’ll be aiming to pick the other up in a couple of weeks (i.e. you want to pick up now the one that will be more expensive in a couple of weeks), since you’ll probably keep either for the rest of the year and so it’s current price compared to scoring potential that matters… which is about the same.

        So Martin if you’ll get Rocky in a couple of weeks otherwise Rocky because he’s more consistent.

  • Is it worth missing out on hrovat and kmart if I still have crouch at M10? I can see Crouch having just as much JS as hrovat.

    • You don’t need the cash?

      • Do you need the bodies on field in Rd 13?

        • not really. I’ll have 19 after two trades next week

          • I think you could get away with missing them then, but I’d still aim for 20 with Hrovat. I went in to last weekend with 19, but with JJK a late withdrawal my 18th player was Whitfield (16). Worth the extra spare if you ask me.

  • Guys do you think Barlow will cop the Raines tag

  • Gonna have to pass on Nicholls. Bringing in Hrovat and Minson are higher on the agenda. Quite happy with Blicavs in R3 instead!

    • I was thinking the same…but remember that Blicavs can be swung into the mids if you trade out a beefed up mid cow..you could have your cake and it eat it in this instance

      • and after the byes, he could be moved on to a premium mid OR be swung back into the rucks if you prefer to hold him.

      • Cheers brother. Ive been trying to work out how to offload kerridge and grab tickles. Helps me moneywise, with B/E and my bye structure!

  • So should we trade Staker as he’s played 3 games yet wasn’t in the Don’t panic or Keepers sections.

  • who is the best premium to bring in this week

  • Is it worth trading down to Nichols for 1 week then having him on the bench or upgrading to Minson who will be a R2 for rest of season.

    JJK- Barlow (Roughy to Forward line)
    Boomer – Minson

  • Rowe > Nichols and Evans > horvat

    Was doing Martin instead of horvat but will be risking being short in round 13.

    O’meara will be upgraded leading into round 13.

    Sound ok?

    • Hrovat is a no brainer surely? Good job security, gun player (keeping Cross out of the side mind you), slightly smaller figures than Martin but im sure he’s going to have a few breakout games. Plus he covers the next 2 bye rounds.

      • +1. Completely disagree with Jeppa on this one, unless you’re the one person with hardly any R13 bye mids.

  • I traded in Hrovat and Griffen before rd 11 to prepare for round 12.
    I will trade Rowe to Nichols and want to rid of Atley for who?
    Ellis (if he plays) or Staker, or is there someone else who has had the by already. I dont want Birchall or Waters , Gibbs just yet.

    • I’m hoping Ellis doesn’t play so I can jump on Barlow before he rises and Kyle Martin. But if he does play then he should be the number 1 defender trade in target behind Gibbs, but of course he has the bye. Ellis for me.

    • Duffield’s an option (see Tbetta’s bullets for more details)

  • Was really wanting to get Kyle Martin in this week but just could not figure it out and field more than 17 players in round 13. Finally came up with this:
    R12: Evans – Martin, Dixon – Ellis (if Ellis doesn’t play, which I’m hoping he doesn’t) O’Meara – Barlow
    R13: Dixon – Ellis (if he plays), Robinson/Dwyer – Premo forward (thinking Stokes/Franklin/Roughhead/Cox/NicNat).

  • Daw > Nicholls
    or
    gawn > Nicholls?

    • Daws BE is hug, so get him out

    • If you are gonna struggle for round 13 players, then Gawn. I reckon Daw is more likely to play. Otherwise yeah, Daw is gonna lose you more money

  • If I were to trade in Ellis. Who is more expendable between Goodes and Terlich ?

    • Goodes is a tad more consistent as his teams better but terlichs ceiling is haaaaaaaa-ugggggge. #stilldeciding

  • next week im screwed! who should i trade next week out of Goddard, Hibberd, Thompson (Adel), O’Meara and Jenkins??

    • You should trade out the spuddiest players ie Jenkins. Then Thompson or O’Meara not that they’re spuds but they don’t average 100. Keep Goddard & Hibberd.

  • “so why not take a little risk and pick the rookie with the higher ceiling?”

    -Because I want (a maximum of) 20 player on field in Rd 13.
    -Because I might not ever downgrade nor ever need on field after Rd 13.

    Simple.

  • Good work Jeppa

    $7.50 for tMitchell rising star you say? Yes please. Betstar paying big overs there. Watch him come in

    Are people really planning to use kaff and Terlich as M6/D6 this yr? Personally I plan to have the best 22 performers in the league on the field by r16ish

  • My milkshake brings all the boys to yard…….