The Numbers – Round Seven

TheNumbers
Round 7 has come and gone, with a Monday night game following a cracking weekend of games. There were some massive figures on offer for me this round, which always gives me a bit of a smile. Something about an event that makes you think “that has to go in The Numbers” makes it all the more special (for me anyway).
4 – As a Blues fan, I can’t not say something about the elephant in the room that is last night’s game. For pretty much the entire game against St Kilda, Carlton were walking wounded as the subsequent lower rotations slowly took their toll. At one point, there were no fresh players on the bench as Hamstring injuries to Ellard and Yarran; whilst Simpson (face gash) and Jamison (shoulder) were forced to play on despite their struggles (four being the number of injuries they had to withstand). To still force a fightback in the fourth quarter with something like 50 less rotations was a testament to their grit and Malthouse’s coaching influence.
43 – This number is courtesy of @j_nusk on Twitter and is the % of stand-in hero Tom Lynch’s career goals were scored on the weekend against GWS. Prior to this week, he’d kicked a total of 13 goals since his debut in 2010 with the Saints. But after his 10-goal heroics on the weekend, his career tally has almost doubled. Whilst this obviously won’t happen every week, he’s proven a very handy DT player in 2013 to date, with scores of 90, 82, 82 and now 165 in his four appearances for the season. Just image what Buddy will do to GWS this week – boy do they need Phil Davis back and fast.
116 – Total AFL Fantasy points that North excitement machine Majak Daw had scored prior to R7. He easily beat the total of his previous three games in one fell swoop on the weekend as he led his team to a 54 point victory with 15 touches, 8 marks, 6 tackles and a huge 128 points that was only truly overshadowed by Tom Lynch’s insane 10 goal hit-out against GWS on the weekend. Cue Daw pun-related headlines now.
99 – Problems that Melbourne have right now… and the coach aint one. Actually he’s a problem too. So we’ll round it off at an even 100 then. This club is in such disarray, it’s actually saddening. I truly feel sorry for their loyal supporters. When should the AFL step in? My answer would be yesterday. They need outside help and now. Sure, it’s all of their own doing as a result of bad decision making over the past 5 or more years regarding their trading, drafting, captaincy choices, coaching and general attitude. But it gets to a point where it’s making the game look bad – actually it may well have past that long ago. Andy D – stop smoking that cray cray stuff that Stevo Dank gave you last month and do something about this before the Melbourne Footy Club brings the rest of the league down with them. Disclaimer: I’m not saying they need more draft picks/concessions – just some kind of intervention. I don’t have a suggestion, nor do I get paid to give my opinion so I’ll just leave it at that and let the powers that be decide.
118 – Yet another of the promising rookies coming through, Sam Kerridge also had a career-best game on the weekend and would be stiff to avoid a more-than-worthy Rising Star nod with his 118 points on the weekend. He is likely, however to be pushed aside by the goal-kicking feat of Majak Daw. Talk about bad timing. Here’s hoping the kid gets a decent run in the seniors and gets another chance to put his name fwd for a rising star nomination – he definitely has talent.
25, 837 – Amount of coaches sweating on the knee scans of one Andrew Swallow. At risk of becoming another to fall to the injury curse of the knee variety, North fans and DT Coaches alike will be awaiting the news with open ears. Swallow himself seemed confident of playing again this week, so it may simply be a case of a 1-week rest at worst ala Trent Cotchin from this week (who has since been noted as likely to play in R8). With two others falling this weekend to serious knee injuries (Jon Griffin and Chris Knights) – the footy gods have not been kind to footballers in 2013. Let’s hope the gods get it out of their system in time for the MBR’s. There’s enough carnage with withdrawals and bye’s, let alone having LTI’s to worry about.
Whore of the Week
Dustin Martin, welcome to the big time. After an up-down start in 2013, many questioned whether he would deliver on his pre-season promises and finally step up this year. 33 disposals (including 23 kicks), 13 marks, a few tackles and a goal combined for a whopping 144 points in Round 7 against Port Adelaide. In a game some thought Port would win, Martin and Deledio worked brilliantly through the midfield to give their forwards the platform to win the game comfortably and put themselves back inside the top 8. Now boasting an average of 103, Martin gets his second wotw nomination inside the first 7 rounds, as well as some well-deserved respect on the back of his positive form. I’ll stop short of saying he’s ‘must-have’ but with a game against the lowly Demons this week and Essendon the week after, he should be at the top of your shopping list if he isn’t already.
Highlights – Dangerfield (141), Goldstein (127) and Gary Ablett (134) performed well in a week with many ups and downs. The round was perhaps typified by some amazing rookie scores of Vlastuin (101) and Daw (128), whilst those few who have Tom Lynch would’ve been going crazy with his huge 165 lighting up Skoda Stadium. Deledio (134) and Martin (144) were brilliant, too.
Lowlights – Hamish Heartless and the Portletts (his band of outcasts) are past the point of frustrating their owners now, whilst Jakey Neade’s run of solid scores finally crashed to a halt with his 24. Premiums continued to frustrate with Boyd (65) and Swallow (injured for 80) having a turn this week. Whilst not playing, popular guns Gibbs, Stanton and Cotchin were sorely missed and will hopefully make a positive return to their respective teams in Round 8.
Team McRath – After the Port game, I was just about gone  for all money. But a few big games from Gaz, Danger and Rocky pushed me up to a respectable 1991 for the week. With Goodes and Stanton to come back in, as well as Dwyer finding form, our boys are looking forward to a great week (touch wood) with some big inclusions (here’s looking at you Buddy).
How did you do? Discuss Your Numbers in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter @McRathDT.

111 Comments

  • Top article nate, im giving buddy a miss and ridding myself of hartlett and wines, sideways (and up thanks to horrible scores) to Heppel, and Vlastuin a week late, but with a great BE.

  • Top article as always McRath. Anyone who doesn’t have Buddy is surely looking at him for his next three weeks alone. He could kick 20 or so against GWS, GC and the red and blue witches hats. One another note which of Wines, Stevenson and Heath go this week with the other 2 gone next week?

    • Was thinking Priddis in and with Goddard in mids any of the 3 can go. Hoping Stevenson gets dropped and I can go Heath and hold Wines for 1 more but really not sure (DT confidence shaken atm after 1730 and 1930 in last 2 weeks)

      • I’m dropping Byrnes for Franklin but then have a decision to make. I have enough cash to go Wines-Watson or Evans-Priddis. What would you do? Or is there someone else I should consider. I have tough league games this week so need to load up.

        • Go wines to Priddis, wines is going to start losing money, Watson is still dropping in price, Evans is still making money and Priddis should rise in price over the next few weeks

        • I’ve gone wines to priddis. wines is done, priddis is just getting started!!

  • Great work as always Matty. One number you appear to have forgotten was 123 from Saint Nick. Only in 6.6% of teams and currently averaging 110 points – I don’t understand why people keep on talking about Buddy.

    • I agree tiger! I had all but conceded defeat in my league match, needing Nick to outscore Murphy by 70 points to win… I love you Roo!

      A number for you:
      100 – The % of Hartlett owners that will be rage trading him out of their teams today!

      • Nope. Holding. And not because of carnage either.

        • Same, start sideways trading now because of 2 bad scores??, feel the pain later!!

          • We’ve got 2 trades a week this year – sideways trades aren’t the no-no they used to be.

    • People are talking about Buddy because he is moving towards the bottom of his price cycle (hopefully) and Riewoldt is too expensive. If you were going to get on him you should have done it weeks ago. Picking him up now is the same as buying Birchall a couple of weeks ago when he was at his most expensive.

  • Daw is to old for the Rising Star so Kerridge is a shoe in for it this week!

    Also Buddy’s BE I’d still 157 and may be rested in the next 3 weeks so I won’t be picking him up this week at least

    • Agree with you here, I’ll be waiting for Buddy to show some actual form before bringing him in. If I miss a big score next week so be it.

  • Any spreadsheets going round to help us organise our teams around the byes like last year?

  • Who do I get in for Wines??

    • Swan. Your response will probably be that you already have him, then my response will be, you need to tell us who you have already and how much cash.

      Swan is the best Dt player. Or ablett :)

  • Not much being said about Ibbotson? he’s dining out and turning out to a fatty in DT… is he just a flash in the pan… tempted to get on him… thoughts?

    • Yeah he has me tempted.

    • He has the luxury of not being the tagged guy, that is a plus however if the tagged guy read usually the duff breaks free, then Johnson ibo won’t get as much.

    • I’m trading hartless to him. Even if he doesn’t continue with the big scores, I avoid the $40K+ price drop from hartless, and replace it with a $20K+ price rise.

  • Had N.Roo from the start and am rapt with the choice.

    Hartlet my only real concern. Looking at Scotland/Hanley/Heppell.

    Also will monitor Buddy as a Wines to Buddy is on the cards using a F/M to go into middle.

    Sitting in the 800’s as the last 2 weeks I have faired very well compared to others

  • Nice write up mate, not sure about the Blues though. Think their final quarter comeback was possible because they were so lazy in the first 3……similar to what they have been doing for a number of years. They need to win these games they are expected to win……not coast along expecting to win then get desperate in the last quarter.
    Lastly anyone for Dusty Martin as captain this week??

  • Thoughts on James Gwilt as a POD? Underpriced and has round 12 bye…

  • I personally am holding Hartlett, I have more pressing issues like upgrading Heath/Stevenson and Wines. Surely he has hit rock bottom and can’t get any worse. Everyone else can get rid of him, he will make a good POD in the coming rds playing teams like Geelong and Collingwood who will smash Port, but unlikely to tag!!

    • I agree mate, priorities are elsewhere this week ( stevenson, heath wines etc ), Geelong and Pies generally just go head 2 head, and back themselves to come out on top, and dont rely on stopping players to get the win unlike, Freo, Sydney and a few of the middle ranked teams. Hartlett is more likely to get attention from teams that struggling for the premiership points, beacause they know how damaging a player he can be. I think he will still avg 85+ for the season, so for now, just gotta stick to my guns and keep cash generating for after bye rnds and finals time.

      • Geelong don’t tag? Taylor Hunt now…picking up where Ling left off.

        Pies seem to be taking a liking to it too. Macaffer has had the role the past two weeks.

        Might be coincidence, but Port have been pretty well shut down when Hartlett has been quiet…I’m sure that won’t slip through the notice of the opposition coaches.

        • I know both teams have a tagger, but in genaral they dont tend to try and stop players just to win games, sure Hunt ( whos out for 8-10 weeks anyway ) does do the job most weeks, and does it well, and Maccaffer has been doing the gig last couple weeks ( helping his scores somehow…lol), but if you look at the stats, opposition players still score well against Geelong and the Pies, same with Hawthorn.
          Im not expecting ton’s all the time from Hartlett, but rookies leaking cash and scoring sub 40’s, is worse than Premo’s leaking cash and scoring mid 80’s which is more than possible for Hartlett to do ( please god….. ).
          You watch Port this week work hard to try and get Hamish off the chain, hopefully Carrazzo wont come back in :/

          • IMO Macaffer will get a job on Stevie J, he should score quite well because it takes him to where the ball is

          • I hear your point Stegga but a premo that is knocking out 3o’s every other week …isn’t a premo anymore and has to go.

        • No Taylor Hunt mate, not for another few weeks, but yes he’s an outright tagger now!

      • I’ll probably hold, but I don’t think trading him is bad either. It has to be this week or never, basically, because he’s going to bleed money big time.

        Stevenson > Dangerfield
        Wines > Priddis

        Those are my trades and it feels good to get rid of some rookies.
        Priddis’ consistency it worth a fortune to me with all these wildly inconsistent players I seem to recruit.

        • I agree mate, trading him isnt a bad idea at all, im just crossing my fingers he can find some form again and fixing some trades elsewhere in my team.

          My trades this week look so far like Stevenson-Ellis & Heath-Enright ( rnd 12 defender and soft draw coming up ).

          Had $280k in the kitty from a downgrade last week and after these trades im still left with $30k and My Def Goddard, Heppel, Enright, Hartlett, Ellis, Vlastuin ( Terlich, Pittard ).

          • All good points and good trades, For me Portadelaide or going to make the decision. If Stevenson is dropped then he will be benched and traded next week, If he plays then he is traded

    • Harlett B/e of 188 – keep him in if you want to keep losing big $$$

  • This weeks trades: Wines to Watson and Whitfield to Priddis
    Next weks trades: Stevenson or Haeth to Thurlow and O’Meara to Fyfe

    • see how Thurlow goes this week – think everyone will jump on him next week

  • just traded all my port loser rookies finnly they rookies are going play even worse and live up to how port has been playing over the last few years that’s crap. I traded lewis steveson for Jackson therlow loved how the young kid went about the game. and also traded jake neede for luke brust he will score out of this world in the next 3 weeks and with buddy don’t know about him I have one more upgrade to do in my forward line and don’t think I want waste it on buddy

  • Thanks for the write up McRath. Curious about people’s thoughts on Ibbotson. Real deal or flash in the pan. I am severely gun shy after ‘upgrading’ B Goodes to Hartlett two weeks ago.

    • Don’t go there. He is almost the defensive equivalent of the Hoff. I tried to tell people a couple of weeks ago during backline carnage week that Burgoyne was a spud but no one listened and he went and scored single figures in the first half against Adelaide (went on to about 40-50). As a Dockers supporter I have watched Ibbotson for a long time, and there is no distinct reason why he has better DT output lately. He seemes to be competing really well in contested marking situations, but even that I can’t see continuing. I think with the raft of Freo players on the injury list he’s just stepped up in their absensce. We’re getting Fyfe and Hill and possibly a couple of others back this week, so look out for a plummet in scoring in the near future. Basically, he’s not an overnight sensation, he’s just a flash in the pan. Pass.

      • Thanks Jarrad. Saved me a barrel full of Hartlett ache I think. Will look elsewhere.

      • Spot on Jarrad, just like a fair few people i’m aware of jumped on Suban after a great start, these guys will just burn you with a below 50 score so be ready for it.

  • 2252 – My score for the week
    353 – My rank for the week
    11 thousand and something – My old rank
    3 thousand and something – My new rank

  • Thurlow and Hutchings next week most popular trade ins? Better upgrade while you can this week.

    • What about Lonergan this week? Not sure about Hutchings and his JS at WC.

      • Lonergan hasn’t impressed that much from a pure DT perspective. I’m not sure about Hutchings either, hopefully a WC watcher will fill us in.

        • Westcoast fan although I don’t think I will be able to tell you anymore then you already know.. I wouldn’t think that he has good JS, Maybe just a fill in for Kerr on the weekend definitely wouldn’t be trading him in this week would also expect a hand full of green vests if his JS improved

        • Lonergan will be on the pine though. He has JS too, whereas Hutchings could be either dropped when Masten/Kerr return or cop the vest

  • what do people think of shan hurn? he’s very cheap and should improve as west coast improve

    • Too inconsistent. He doesn’t fare well against the tag either

    • He is a bald, fat legged version of Hamish Hartlett

    • Good super coach player but not for dt. Will average around 70-75 with the odd good week. Great player but because he is so damaging he cops the odd tag

  • Why is there all this love for Priddis when you can get Hodge for 415k?
    What am I missing here?

    Having said that I like the price on Watson who should drop another 20k next week. But I need to sell Wines.

    • I’d get Priddis over Hodge anyday of the week. Priddis is more consistent than Hodge, I also think Hodge only goes big against the tougher sides

    • Yeah Hodge is a big injury risk, he’s had a fair few problems over the last few years. Hodge is also a lot more inconsistent, don’t be surprised to cop a 110 followed by a 60 where as Priddis will get 90 and 90.

  • im carlton fan too but i’m not as optimistic about that performance. i think the injuries are giving them an easy out from what was a static tired weak performance. yes they didn’t have waite, carazzo, gibbs, yarran, ellard and a one handed kruezer, one legged murphy and one armed jamison. but in general they were making bad decisions and looked second to the ball the whole time. sloppy with their skill execution. if carlton had played geelong last night they would have lost by 100. but i know they’re better than that. they don’t like etihad for some reason either. but it’s not dt related so i’ll end my rant there.

  • Priddis has proven consistency with low scores rd 80 and a highest of 120? Hodge has been good of late but can be up and down scoring a few 50s already this year. Prussia will get you consistent 80s-100s with the odd 120. Good investment I think

  • Prussia? Damn auto correct!!! Priddis

  • Hutchings looked really good on the weekend but with all the players likely to come back in over the next week or two I can’t see him holding his spot

  • Thoughts on Ellis ? Scored well recently has JS and he continue it or an there better downgrade options for hartlett ?

    • Sounds a good option to me.

    • lol I was just about to ask opinions on Harlett to Ellis.

      So far I’ve gone Hartlett -> Ellis and Neade to Dusty.
      Should feast on those Demons this week.

    • I initially traded in Ellis for Heath after lockout, but something just puts me off about him, 1 bad game and he might wear the vest again… i dont know, might be becasue he wore the vest 3 times already this season, but going on form, i think he could still be a handy inclusion if your not upgarding elsewhere like Wines-Priddis.

      Lets take a vote, best trade option, considering you have a spare 50k or so.

      Wines-Priddis or Heath/Stevenson-Ellis?? GO!

      • I can’t see Priddis averaging over 100 this year really. If you want a mid with a round 12 bye, look at the Selwood brothers

        • Yeah i agree, wont avg 100, but paying sub 400k for a bloke that will avg 95 is still pretty cheap. I already have Jelwood aswell.

  • In which order should i trade these crabs.

    Hartlett Stevenson Heath

    • 1. Which ever of Stevenson or Heath plays this week (or both)
      2. Hartlett. If he gets a 100, he’ll still drop in price, but you’ll probably be thinking the 30s will drop off, and he’ll rebound in price.
      3. Which ever of Stevenson or Heath gets dropped this week

    • If you’re worried about cash loss then get ride of Hartlett straight away, with the other two its a flip of a coin, IMO Heath has better job security with Stevenson playing in Pittard’s role who is soon to return

  • Only scored 1942 this week, but had Gibbs, Goodes and Stanton all on my bench, with elow par scores thanks to Hartlett, Neade and Harbrow, so not too bad considering.
    Two trades this week are Rowe to Lonergan via DPP with Neade from Mid to Fwd, and Harteltt to Ellis. Also have $553,300 in the bank.
    Next week barring any injuries am looking to bring in Ablett and Scott Selwood for M.Jones and M.Evans.

    Then team would be

    DEF: Goddard, Heppell, Harbrow, Gibbs, Ellis, Goodes (Vlastuin, Terlich)
    MID: Swan, Ablett, Pendlebury, Stanton, S.Selwood, Deledio, Wines, O’Meara (Crouch, Lonergan)
    RUC: Cox, Leuenberger (Blicavs, Currie)
    FWD: S.Johnson, Martin, Rockliff, Lewis, J.Kennedy, Mayes (Dwyer, Neade)

    Thoughts?

    • looks good if injuries permit, Watson could be a cheaper option with similar output to scooter who is very expensive atm, still good looking team

      • Yeah was thinking of Watson, but with the big round 13 bye I’d end up having 5 of the 6 mid premo’s out, Scooter would balance it out just a tad

    • Looks good on paper, it’s so hard to plan trades a week in advance though, but having $550k sitting there would be pretty exciting come end of lockout this weekend. Harbrow, Ellis and Lewis good POD’s.

    • Thats a solid as fuck team

    • Amazing team mate! Hope all goes well for you so you can end up with that.

  • confused on how to go about this week. extremely poor last 2 weeks for me, I have 400k in the kitty so I could do 2 upgrades. my problem is that there are going to be a lot of fallen must have premos over the next few weeks, think Boyd, Watson, cotchin, Stanton and franklin, that I don’t want to miss. there aren’t a lot of rookies coming through though to get the cash for these guys. lonergan is an option this week, should people bring him in for cash for the next few weeks? I have Hartlett, Stevenson, Heath, neade and wines to worry about. this week there is priddis, Hanley and possibly jelwood that are prime for picking. thoughts on what to do this week?

  • What’s happened to Rowe? Think he’s out for good? Not going to have time to trade him out for a while, would be nice if he’d play.

    • Will struggle IMO, with Kreuz back, Warnock preforming well and Mick seems to have a liking for Hampson he may struggle. Casboult was also named as an emergency ahead of Rowe last week, gives a little idea of the pecking order at the Blues.

  • Important number – What round do you think you will have a complete squad of Premos?

  • Awesome article McRath!! great work!

    So far have gone Wines -> Priddis
    Hartlet -> Ablett

    Wasnt intending on jumping off the Hartlet train, but when it gets me Ablett I cant really see a downside. Was going to go Heath -> Franklin but not comfortable getting in Franklin until he shows some form.
    Also the double upgrade allows me to get in a rookie like Thurlow next week

    • Agreed. I’ve gone Hartlett > B Goodes (to see if I can recoupe some Hartlett cash) and S Mayes > GAJ (it just makes me feel warm and fuzzy having him in my side). S Mayes is a stand in now depending on whether Dwyer and/or MacCaffer are listed next week. Only picking him out of the 3 for now because of his higher BE. With Ablett playing WB this week, I think I’ll slap the C on him too!

      • Hartlett gone…lows are too low and too often
        Hartlet -> Ellis (make some cash and wait for Birch to drop)
        Wines -> Watson

      • Get Ellis instead of Goodes

        • Why so much love for Ellis? I’m a bit concerned about his consistency…

  • whats peoples thoughts on hartlett – Garrick Ibbotson ?

    the kid has a 111 point average atm… granted he has only played 3 games but he had 103 on richmond and 136 on pies… they are strong teams…

  • I am not trading around injuries this week!! Gone Neade- Stevie J, then Wines- Lonergan, with DPP i wont need lonergan on field (also Crouch looks like he may play this week). Thoughts on that? Or another option is go Neade- Priddis but will lose DPP between mids and fwds. Jobe Watson 490k this week with a big breakeven- presume he’s a must grab next week

  • hartlett – enright
    wines – priddis

    or

    evans – lonergan
    wines – any premo mid. (except scooter)

    or

    Cotchin –
    Wines –
    (not sure who to get, but have 945k combined in bank when going to trade these 2)

    mids are – Swan, Ablett, pendals, cotchin, moloney, wines, o’meara, mayes (crouch, evans)

    • Those are both bad trades. Evans still has a bit of money to make and cotchin is versing the dees this week, only likely to lose maybe 20k. Better off trading wines and another port player if you have one

  • Wines or Hartlett out this week?

    • trade hartlett wines should come up with a good score

    • Im holding Hartlett. Completely torn about the idea, but I bought him in because i think he is good enough to be top 6 defender at the end of the year. Time will tell and it is a big gamble. however, it a downgrade on Hartlett gets you a good upgrade then may be worth it.

  • 6. The number of Port Players I have traded out over the last 3 weeks,

    Hoff, Pittard
    Wines, Stevenson
    Hartlett, Neade

    • Good Effort. I still have 2 to go after ditching Heath and Neade this week, Wines and Pitard. At least Pittard can still make some cash on the bench.

  • Trade 1: Hartlett ->duffield/hanley

    Trade 2: Cordy -> Daw (probably too late to get him?)/ luey*

    or

    Hampson -> Buddy/Rocky/Martin*

    Please help

    *I can only get Leuy or Martin if I get Duffield instead of Hanley

  • 466 – the difference between my rd 6 and rd 7 scores…

  • Trade one is sorted; Stevenson -> Thurlow

    But for the second one?
    A. Swallow -> Stevie J / Deledio

    or

    Neade -> Franklin
    (Hoping swallow will not be injured)

    Have a pretty easy game this week

    • Neade to Franklin, avoid the sideways trade and avoid getting Stevie J at his price peak. Deledio not a bad option if Swallow doesn’t com eup, but Priddis could free up some cash, and you can trade another portlet next week, or another upgrade.