Prices & Trades Spreadsheet

nixtrader

Here is an updated spreadsheet to help work out who to trade into, or out of, your team to get the best money changes for the next few rounds.

Changes this week:

  • Round 3 scores and prices automatically pulled up for each player.
  • Trader section added.  Put in a pair of players you want to trade to see the outcome. Can compare 5 different trades at the same time.

Here is link to download spreadsheet (excel2007) – DT2013 R4pub

If you have any questions, post comments below, or tweet to @NixTrader

 

Brief instructions:

  • You only have to enter information into the green cells, the other cells are protected to prevent any errors.
  • Confirm or change Magic Number estimate for the end of round 4 – cell Z2.  I’ve put it at 5,020 – if you think you know enough about MN to put another number you can change it.  Similar for MN at end of round 5 – I have it at 4,960.
  • Enter your players using the drop down menu.  In the menu only the players who fit that position are named in full, other players are reduced to 3 letters.  If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds you should be able to select and copy groups of players from there into this spreadsheet.
  • For each player in your team data is pulled up automatically –
    • Team and position for 2013.  If this is different to 2012, their previous team and position is also shown, or if this is their 1st year playing.
    • 2013 starting price.
    • Points expected based on that price (using initial magic number 5,150).The difference in points between their 2013 base and their points average for all of 2012.  For most players who played last year this difference will be zero.
    • 2012 Performance in 3 columns – average points, games played, standard deviation.
    • Scores from the first 3 rounds – “n” indicates they did not play.
    • There are 2 green cells to enter the actual scores (or your estimates) for your players for the Round 4 and Round 5.  Based on these scores the last other columns calculate the averages, BEs, price change and new prices after the rounds.
    • If you leave any cell blank the calculation assumes the player gets their 2013 base score for that round – i.e. the score in column S is used as default in the calculations, or their average score if they have played 3 or more games.
    • The player has to play 3 games for their price to change, so if the players miss games their price change won’t happen until after they play 3 games.
    • If one of your players misses a round, put an “n” in the green cell for that round.  The calculations for the next round will then update to take account of this.  If you leave rounds blank the default assumption is that the player does play in the round and scores the amount in column S.
    • The captain’s score isn’t doubled so the total score won’t match your real DT score for the rounds.

 

At the bottom of the spreadsheet there are 3 more tables.

  • A table looking at the structure of your team,
  • A table looking at distribution of byes in your team.
  • A table that compares different trading options. (New this week)

 

FAQ:

  • Why are these calculations different to other published BEs and valuations?
    • Everyone’s calculations depend on their assumptions about Magic Number, projections of future scores and how they round averages and values.  This spreadsheet should replicate any other published calculations if you make the same projections, including changing the magic number.  However, this spreadsheet is unique in that it allows you to change the estimates to do your own analysis.
  • Tech talk: You need a device that supports microsoft excel 2007 spreadsheets to be able to open and use the spreadsheet.  It won’t open on mobiles or tablets unless you have software or apps that support excel files.

4 Comments

  • I was just wondering a quick question, Is the Magic Number different from player to player?

    I just some calculations based of of this formula

    ((((Predicted Score for this round + last 2)/3)x MN)-Current Price)/4=Change in Player Value.

    I did this for three players Priddis (MN = 5078), Hanley (4732) and Stevenson (5102).

    The data i got was from assistant coach (thanks 2 week trial!).

    Is the formula im using wrong or is MN different player to player?

    Thanks

  • In theory, no same MN for everyone. MN is to keep total of all players the same through the year.

    However, because of rounding you will get different calcs for many players if you try to work backwards:
    – projections probably include fractional points,
    – player value changes rounded back to $100s

    Given this Priddis & Stevenson look about right. But Hanley looks wrong.

    I’ll have another look at this tonight. I am on road today and don’t have all my data / files / formulae with me.

  • Thanks for the information. Very Helpful!

    Thanks

  • Your formula is right, but I think you messed up the calc for Hanley, I get about 5088 with your formula.

    So if you do this about 3-5 times for different players, and average the various MNs you will find the MN that source is using. But they are guessing the future MN same as everyone else, no source can be “right”.

    I think Asst Coach just uses same MN as last round, so they are probably overstating expected price changes in early rounds, when MN usually falls.

    If you use the spreadsheet, you can put in the AC points projection, and vary the MN slightly, till the BE’s & expected $change match. So it is fairly easy to get a rough idea of the MN any source is using.