Lefty’s In-Vestments – Rd 4

LeftysInvestments

Welcome to Lefty’s In-Vestments, where I will have a crack at picking the dreaded green vests for each weeks games. Nothing is more annoying than seeing your player with that horrible green vest on and it can cause fits of rage and expletive filled rants in the middle of family lunches (ask my fiancé about Karnezis the other week..)

So to try and avoid any more embarrassing outbursts, every Thursday night from now on I will assess the team line ups, look at the last 3 green vests for each team, and try and work out the most likely starting sub candidates. I will also try and outline the Sunday teams likely green vests from the squads of 25 (good bloody luck I hear you say and I agree!)

So here we go – Round 4

 

Adelaide Crows

In – Lynch, McKernan, Kerridge, Laird, Lyons

Out- Van Berlo, Vince

Last 3 Subs –          Martin, Porplyzia, Vince

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Johncock. Look to inject late in 3rd quarter across half forward and give a burst of contested footy and goal scoring.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Lyons. Youngster trying to break in may be eased in via green.

 

Brisbane Lions

In – Harwood, Crisp, Karnezis, Paparone, Docherty

Out- Polec, Yeo

Last 3 Subs -          Beams, Karnezis, Polkinghorne

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Karnezis. The Karny clown may well continue the heartbreak and cop the kermit suit.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Harwood. Gives options for Vossy by being swung anywhere on the ground.

 

Carlton Blues

In – Warnock, Curnow, White

Out- Kreuzer, Davies, Buckley

Last 3 Subs -          Joseph, McLean, Buckley

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Lucas. Hasn’t shown enough since his good NAB cup form, may be used as sub to spark him into action.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – White. Can play back and mid, may free up scotland to play on ball by taking his place in the backline late in game?

 

Collingwood Magpies

In – Seedsman, J Thomas

Out- Frost, Johnson

Last 3 Subs -          Dwyer, Seedsman, Fasolo

Lefty’s #1 Sub – J Thomas. Smaller running forwards are the green rage at the Pies.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Seedsman. Looks the most likely other than J Thomas but I pretty sure it will be JT.

 

Essendon Bombers

In – Hille, Winderlich, Pears, Baguley, Merrett

Out- Ryder, Colyer, Kommer, Fletcher, Kavanagh

Last 3 Subs -          Zaharakis, Kommer, Colyer

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Merrett. Surely will be the green in this line up?

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Winderlich. May be eased back after injuries?

 

Fremantle Dockers

In – Neale

Out- Pavlich

Last 3 Subs -          Sutcliffe, Sutcliffe, Sutcliffe

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Neale. Late run could be a massive boon for the dockers

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Sutcliffe. Ross Lyons pet sub of 2013 may be the new Andrew Gaff!

 

Geelong Cats

In – Rivers, Horlin-Smith

Out- Varcoe, Murdoch

Last 3 Subs -          Horlin-Smith, Stokes, Caddy

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Horlin-Smith. Looks pretty much a certainty.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Smedts. Hasnt set the world on fire but can score goals in bursts

 

Gold Coast Suns

In – Murphy, Prestia

Out- Allen, Russell

Last 3 Subs -         Matera, Brennan, Russell

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Prestia. Fits the bill of running goal scorer and returning to side.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Shaw. Named last on bench and I couldnt find another better choice.

 

GWS Giants

In – O’hAilpan, Miles, Palmer, Golds, Tomlinson, Townsend, Frost, Haynes

Out- Brogan, Hampton, Smith, Patton, Hoskin-Elliot

Last 3 Subs -         Adams, Hoskin-Elliot, Reid

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Miles. Supposedly not the favourite son but if he can get his attitude right is no doubt of his potential.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Whitfield. Coin toss amongst 5 so this is an out an out guess(maybe Golds if he gets a game)

 

Hawthorn Hawks

In – Osborne

Out- Anderson

Last 3 Subs -         Anderson, Savage, Gunston

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Osborne. Goal kicking runners have been the trend here and given his leg issues seems logical to ease him in.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Puopolo. Same type as Osborne, and could be very damaging as a fresh runner versus a 2/3 game weary opposition.

 

Melbourne Demons

In – Spencer, Watts, Gawn

Out-

Last 3 Subs -         Blease, Rodan, Toumpas

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Bail. Should be the sub, reasonable runner and offers a bit of flexibility.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Watts. Maybe playing him fresh against tired players will give him a boost of confidence?

 

North Melbourne Roos

In – Anthony, Greenwood, Sierakowski, Daw, McKenzie

Out- Tarrant, Harper

Last 3 Subs -          Anthony, Jacobs, Wright

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Gibson. Last years star has struggled this season – may be reminded he needs to put in every week?

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Anthony. Has already adorned the green this season, Scott may go with him again.

 

Port Adelaide Power

In – Gray, Cassisi

Out- Mitchell, Stewart

Last 3 Subs -         Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Neade. Port will be wary of overtaxing the lightly framed young forward.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Gray. Returning from injury may be eased in AFL duties

 

Richmond Tigers

In – Nil

Out- Nil

Last 3 Subs -         Nahas, Ellis, Ellis

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Knights. Pefect vest candidate for mine, runs and hits the scoreboard and as a veteran should be managed through year?

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Ellis. Going for the unwanted threepeat of green – surely he gets to start this week ahead of Knights?

 

Saint Kilda Saints

In – Simpkin, Siposs

Out- Newnes, Blake

Last 3 Subs -         Dennis-Lane, Schneider, Ray

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Siposs. Look for him to play last quarter on the ball

Lefty’s #2 Sub –Saad. Run, carry and ability to hit the scoreboard may be enhanced against tired opponents?

Note : If T. Lee was quicker I would select him but I think he is too slow to be an effective green but very likely red vest.

 

Sydney Swans

In – Morton, Rampe

Out- Bird, Everitt

Last 3 Subs -          Armstrong, Bird, Bird

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Morton. The ideal running goal threat for late in a tight game

Lefty’s #2 Sub –Armstrong. Was the sub first round, and can be swung forward and back

 

West Coast Eagles

In – McKenzie, Dalziell

Out- Embley, Brown

Last 3 Subs -          Embley, Dalziell, Cripps

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Dalziell. Running power late will be very handy

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Hams. The pint sized speedster plays in bursts and holding him back may be a masterstroke late in the game?

 

Western Bulldogs

In – Boyd, Markovic, Cordy, Tutt, Howard, Stringer, Johannisen, Macrae

Out- Murphy, Higgins, Wood, Campbell, Dickson

Last 3 Subs -        Smith, Stevens, Smith

Lefty’s #1 Sub – Stringer. May be eased into season via green vests to manage body.

Lefty’s #2 Sub – Tutt. Burst type player may be held back til 3rd quarter

 

So there you have it – my views on the likely vests this round. Hope this helps you in deciding who to start on the field (or even trade in/out) but please remember this is a ‘best guess’ article and I am just presenting my views and trying to apply some logic to the likely scenarios. In other words send praise when I get it right but no sooking if I guess wrong haha!

As always I will post the follow up on Monday to see how many I got right and see if any patterns for teams are emerging. ie certain types of players always vested, rookies on debut, returning injured stars etc.

My number one vest pick for the weekend – Morton (Sydney)

Good luck – and feel free to tweet me when I get it right/wrong over the weekend!

@Lefty113

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59 Comments

  • Thanks Lefty. This is exactly the kind of write up I’ve been looking for. Good stuff.

  • Jack

    Is trading danger to hodge a good idea

  • Think Neade is a good chance for vest.

  • POK

    Think this is a great article but by no means is Josh Thomas a small running forward

  • Goddard, Gibbs, Heppell, Goodes, Stevenson, Pittard (Terlich, Heath)

    Swan, Ablett, Watson, Pendlebury, Cotchin, Wines, O’Meara, Viney (Kommer, Mitchell)

    Cox, Burger (Blicavs, Daw )

    Bartel, Rockliff, Zorko, Robinson, Kennedy, Neade (Macaffer, Dwyer)

    8k

    Guys!!! I need help with deciding on trades for Round 4 I really want to get rid of Zorko/Mitchell/kommer but for who? Help will be greatly appreciated

    • zorko for the hoff and kommer for crouch

      • mitchell back on rookie list though. kommer may be back sooner. but still don’t really know which is the best option. flip a coin?

        • I think Dywer and Neade are the most likely green vest candidates in your team.

  • i had to hold on karnezis, so should i trade him out this week and utilise his value to get westhoff, especially seeing as he is a definite sub risk?

    • without knowing anything else about your team i’m not too sure. but almost certainly YES!

  • What is everyones opinion of Neade being the sub over Gray, percentage-wise??

    • id say at the very least hes a 1 in 22 chance.

      • i like those odds.

        ash – i really don’t know. my F6 this week is between Neade and Dwyer. Not sure if you’re in the same boat but lefty’s got me thinking maybe Dwyer? since Thomas is likely Pies sub.

        • sorry % wise – ummmmmm 50/50! i don’t know what to believe any more

          • 0%. neade has been groomed in a fwd pocket position. he hasn’t played midfield once this season. the sub is usually strategic, neade being only a fwd pocket limits that strategy. port haven’t lost a game and will not change a winning formula. robbie gray is suited to the vest. livewire player, could provide a spark when subbed on….and won’t be thrown in the deep end his first game back after 12 months….

  • Fantastic Article, great development of the sub prediction articles from last season. Good to have my wariness around Neade reinforced.

  • Should I field Viney or Whitfield?

  • K.Mitchell > Hodge leaving $4,600 left or K.Mitchell > Wines leaving $155,200 left?

    • Jack

      K.mitchell > wines coz wines will go up in price and if he keeps scoring consistently he might even be a keeper

      • Hodge will also go up in price and hodge also has far more chance of turning into a keeper… Yes, he won’t go up nearly as much. But he will go up and definitely has ‘keeper’ potential

  • Jack

    Wat do u guys think how will danger go this week or is hodge a better option

    • danger is such a poser, kick him to the kerb!

      correct me if i’m wrong but on BE alone Hodge is way in front right?

      if ao, HODGE!

  • I reckon the DT talk boys should get their IT guys and girls to have a permanent “Discuss your team trade option” link right at the start of the DT talk page. It would be nice to have a discussion about possible subs that you can go back and read without all the trade comments. I undestand why they are here, (its the most recent post and where people will be looking). Just a thought.

    • good idea shags. i like having a forum to discuss all the in’s and out’s. trade advice is fine but the comments are becoming overrun with the same trade questions lately. not that it bothers me too much, i love to see how passionate everyone is about their team! but something like shags idea could be great!

    • Plus a million! It’s getting pretty tedious

  • Good effort Lefty. This has got to be the toughest DT article to write. I mean Calvin captains, how difficult is it to write Swan? e

  • Jack

    Pittard or Hutchins

  • Who to field? (pick 3)
    Wines, o’meara, crouch, boney, Koby Stevens.

  • Thinking Kerridge may get the vest for crows. has a vested history

    • good call – I swayed towards Johncock as after last weeks average effort I think they will want to start with the youngsters and send a message to the senior players (dropped vince, vest another senior?)
      If Kerridge makes the final team then definitely a green chance (I think he won’t make the 22?)
      Also in your favour every premiership game Kerridge has played for Adelaide he has been the sub – (1!)haha

  • Quick one here:
    Who to get in mullet (cash) or hodge (points)

  • Not that anyone should care…but Tutt (WBD) and Gray (PTA) surely can’t be the #2 subs for their teams. Tutt’s listed as playing forward pocket, and Gray is supposed to start at back pocket?

    • It doesn’t matter where they’re listed on the team sheet, they can still be sub. Also I doubt Gray will play back pocket, he is a small forward who has occasional bursts in the middle like LeCras or Rioli

  • Sydney Sub: D.Rampe
    Geelong Sub: G-H-S
    Hawthorn Sub: M.Osborne
    Fremantle Sub: L.Neale
    Richmond Sub: B.Ellis
    Collingwood Sub: P.Seedsman
    St.Kilda Sub: F.Ray
    Essendon Sub: J.Merrett
    West Coast Sub: B.Dazziell
    Carlton Sub: K.Lucas
    Gold Coast Sub: M.Shaw
    Port Adelaide Sub: D.Cassisi
    Thank me later.

  • Jack

    I think hodge is a better trade to get instead of keeping danger thoughts

  • Jack

    Is downgrading pittard to Hutchins a good call or bad call thoughts plz

  • Ok 3 options

    1. Play Dwyer in Forwards, Leave Cox and Jacobs in Ruck
    2a. Swap Rowe to Cox, Play Cox in forwards resting Dwyer and play Rowe & Jacobs
    2b) Same as above but play Daw & Jacobs
    3. Play Rowe in Forwards resting Dwyer

    Outside option is I have Neade as well which I can play but has been sugested as a green vest.

  • should i field neade or karnezis?

  • Simon White is a back and forward, NOT a back and mid.

  • Is there a chance omeara will vest up this week? Its really between him and shaw?

  • Bugger i really didnt think caddy would get 2 vests in a row. Happy with my morton prediction though