Todd Goldstein – Deck of Dream Team 2013

jan22_goldsteinName: Todd Goldstein
Club: North Melbourne
Position: Ruck
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $407,300
Bye Round: 12 (Shared with Geelong, Melbourne, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney & West Coast)
2012 Average: 76.9
2012 Games Played: 20
Predicted Average: 86.4

 

Why should I pick him?

Todd Goldstein is one of the most interesting picks in AFL Dream Team this season. Why? Because in 2011, as North Melbourne’s sole ruckman, Todd showed us what he can achieve with a 99.3 average whilst team mate Hamish McIntosh sat out most of the year on the sidelines. In 2012, McIntosh returned to the side, and Goldstein’s output dropped, averaging just 79.1. In 2013 Goldstein will again be alone at the Arden Street, whilst ‘required player’ McIntosh laces up his boots down in Geelong. Will McIntosh’s departure help Todd regain his form, and how much does being the sole ruckman help Goldstein?

First we should look at if there really is a difference between his output when he plays with and without McIntosh.

Well, in the past four seasons McIntosh & Goldstein have played 38 games together. In those 38 games, McIntosh has averaged only 63.5 dream team points per game. During the same time Goldstein has played 37 games as the sole ruckman, where he averaged a much more impressive 93.9 points per game. On the surface of it this suggests that without HMac, Goldy will improve on his 79 point starting price.

Additionally, Goldstein had a purple patch last season, where he scored a nice 96.5 average in the 12 weeks from round 9 to round 21. Even though he didn’t finish the season well, and for some, cost them a grand final spot with a non-sub affected 24, after returning to the side in round 8, he finished the season with an acceptable average of 88.

Looking at the graph below, you can see that last season was pretty average, after improving his average the three seasons prior. With McIntosh gone, we should expect his output to go up again.

goldstein 

 

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Were you not listening? The dude got a non-sub affected score of 24!? That’s one point (hitout) every four minutes! Or 8 points per quarter. Apparently this was due to a combination of Gastro & a head knock, with would explain the Zac Dawson like output, but what’s his excuse for the other 6 games in which he scored 60 points or under? It meant for coaches that 35% of the time he took to the park last year, he crashed and burned, and a rookie could have outscored him. He finished the season with 24 & 60 (with a 52 in the semi-final against the Eagles), right when coaches needed his to step up the most, leaving much hatred for him from many a coach. I mean, look at the graph above, he’s up and down more than a bi-polar flea going through a break-up on a yoyo!

On top of this, a huge proportion of his points come from hit-outs; just over one third. So if you pick him, you better get used to him going up one point at a time. This isn’t always a bad thing, especially if he could float up to the goal square and get a few +12’s, but he isn’t a ruckman who kicks goals, having kicked only two last season. Two goals all season.

Although it is expected that he will have a better output without McIntosh, in the games they played together (38), Goldstein actually outscored McIntosh in nearly a third (13) of them, and much of his poorer scoring average over the past four seasons with McIntosh in the side can be attributed largely attributed to many of these games coming in 2009, his second season, where he only averaged 50.3.

And then after all this, we are reminded that next season the AFL have introduced a new rule, saying the ruckmen can’t make contact until after the ball have left the umpires hand. Awesome if your ruckmen have a big spring-loaded jump, or quick around the ball. Now, I don’t know if you’ve ever seen a Goldstein ruck contest, but the boy loves a wrestle, with feet planted firmly on the ground. With 35% of his points coming from hit-outs, you would want to feel confident that Todd has either found a new athleticism in the off-season, or that the rule won’t affect his scoring.

He also shares the bye round with Cox, Mumford, Naitanui, McIntosh, Vardy & McEvoy, and promising rookie priced rucks in Gawn, Currie & Daw.

 

Deck of DT Rating

QUEEN – He will be the number one ruckman for the Roos in 2013, and without McIntosh you can expect his scoring to increase. But he will have Daniel Currie & Majak Daw chomping at the bit to show what they can offer, and the more athletic Drew Petrie helping him out around the ground at bounces. He has a huge ceiling for a ruckman, but can also knock out a score that makes you honestly question if he took to the paddock. If you like rollercoasters, jump on board, but if you are after a season-long keeper, you just can’t trust him. The selection of Todd Goldstein as your starting ruckman may just sway your season, as without money in the bank it’ll be hard to jump to a premium if he spuds it. Proceed with caution.

 

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32 Comments

  • Just to be fair: His 24 pts in R22, he had gastro and had been throwing up repeatedly until the game started (they had no other ruckmen who could replace him at that stage).

    That aside, still not a brilliant season post-HMac, but an ok one. Goldy seems to elicit polarising views in DT forums for 2013.

    Nice work Griff!

  • Nice analysis Griff. Not for me though. After playing ruck tag all last year I’d like to go set and forget. Maric appears to be unbreakable.

    • Agreed. Set & Forget the rucks this season, especially with trades every week. If Leuenburger is flying early downgrade and net some cash, or pay overs in your starting line-up with him as R2, Cox up front and Rowe on the bench. R4 can be Currie or Gawn.

  • Cant go near this guy after having him last year and getting absolutely bent over by him! NO GOLDY NO!!!!! He didnt even have Hmac half the time and still did shit…

    • I dont think he was injured I just think his workrate is absolutely hopeless….. Does nothing if he doesnt dominate the hitouts!

  • Great Article Griff. I’ve never even considered him. He is not a proven performer, with only one year at the top, and personally I think he’ll average very similarly to 2012. Rids said something similar in his article. Superb yet again.

    • Yeah I saw Rids article after penning this draft & I looks like we are on the same page with Goldy. He has a huge upside, but until he learns to find the ball more in general play, and lift his mobility around the ground, he’ll just keep on going missing for extended periods of play.

  • Top work RL.
    I was one of those who got burnt last year by this 2 of clubs!
    Check out his scores against WCE and Freo – he acts as a fluffer for Cox and 211.

    • Unfortunately for him it’s not just those two he goes poorly against. Goldstien’s scored 24 v Freo, 33 v Sydney (vest 3rd Qtr), 53 v Geelong, 55 v West Coast, 56 v Essendon, 59 v Carlton, 60 v GWS. Oh, and a 52 v West Coast in the Elimination Final. It seems he struggles a bit with mobile ruckmen who like to push forward of the ball.

  • I thought about him for a second, then remembered how many trades I burned on my rucks last year and the fact that I had him when he got thumped by Cox/Nata and then Sandi.

    Im going hard in my rucks this year. Not even thinking about breakout contenders. Getting the guys that I believe will be top scorers next year regardless.

    I believe that its critical early to get the points early and get your team in a good position in terms of overall rankings rightr from the go and I reckon Cox and Maric as the 2 rucks does help me get there.

    Goldy really other than hitouts, I don’t see much special with him. I dont see him going forward and marking in the goalsquare or spreading round the ground like Cox for the cheap plus 6’s.

    Things I reckon you need to consider from premo ruckmen:
    1) Hitout rate
    2) Goal scoring
    3) Marking ability
    4) Ability to accumulate possessions around the ground
    5) Competition within the team

    I reckon Cox and Maric tick everything you need here, if price isn’t a factor for you.

  • Nice stuff mate! Appears we have come to the same conclusion :-)

    • Just a quick note on his 140 against the Lions in round 9. He was playing against a Longer/Merrett combination.

      Still an awesome score but I do wonder what he would have got against Hudson or Berger.

  • The big 211…he has some new shoes…lookout!!!

  • I’ll take goldy, should step up a little and his round 12 bye helps. Can always use Cox from the FWDs if all goes pear shaped.

  • Had him in my side for ages but recently swapped him for Sandi, too much risk having him when the only good options out there or more expensive. Sit and forget this year with Sandi/Berger and Cox in the fwds :)

  • Good write up mate… pretty sure a score of 24 is only 6 a quarter not 8 though haha

    I myself will be going for Sandi

    And like a few others will be going in with a few dockers… although nowhere near finalised all of Pearce, Duffield, Fyfe, Sandi and De Boer could find themselves in my team…

    No place for Goldstein though…

  • Don’t worry Goldman, I will back you in.

  • My God, he’s got a face like a dropped pie.